[dohboi]

"The US converts 40% of its corn group into a dubious MBTE-additive replacement"

Good point, much overlooked.

"Oil dependence is ruining the world and we can not get out of our cars. And we never will. It is the INFRASTRUCTURE that needs cars. Not you or me."

Nicely put. I'd discuss this further, but I have to go drive to work.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', '&')quot;The US converts 40% of its corn group into a dubious MBTE-additive replacement"

Good point, much overlooked.

"Oil dependence is ruining the world and we can not get out of our cars. And we never will. It is the INFRASTRUCTURE that needs cars. Not you or me."

Nicely put. I'd discuss this further, but I have to go drive to work.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')The ongoing collapse has very little to do with AGW. Even significant drought would have been mollified by modern grain transport and storage, international commodity markets and NGO's. The world is awash in surplus grain. The US converts 40% of its corn group into a dubious MBTE-additive replacement. Brazil turns it sugar into ethanol (its an scam employment program) even through country is an oil exporter.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'L')ore, few serious scientists (other than Hansen et al.) seriously believe that catastrophic runaway greenhouse effect will actually occur. The effects of AGW will be more of the same: ie gradual regional destabilization of current climate/agricultural norms with continuing migrations, collapsed regional economies etc. However I believe this will be dwarfed in coming years by the simultaneous depletion of petroleum.

I am pretty sure that petroleum depletion will trump all other natural calamities. But the peak-oil story impossible for most to fathom. It's not like aquifer depletion or food shortages. You don't get to see it up front and personal. Impossible to measure. It's all around . . . but invisible. Like a low-grade infection. Our entire global manufacturing economy depends on cheap petroleum. There are no substitutes, none that can be manufactured in time.

[kanon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Yet (once) modern impoverished economies without surplus wealth are collapsing, unable to buy into this excess wealth. Why? Yes, successful globalization sent many jobs to more efficient manufacturing societies (China and Vietnam remain mostly command economies). But is also true that a rational market should have returned just as many jobs to Greece. Why hasn't it? It should be obvious. Until a generation ago China and Vietnam were rural peasant societies operating on ox-carts. Neither of these countries have the burden of automobile dependent infrastructure. Enough said? No?

Oil dependence is ruining the world and we can not get out of our cars. And we never will. It is the INFRASTRUCTURE that needs cars. Not you or me.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')up. Back to the billion, so 17% will avoid collapse.

[AgentR11]

There is nothing particularly horrible about a 200lb predator having global numbers in the hundreds of thousands; its a perfectly reasonable gene pool size to draw from; especially considering the wanderlust many humans get afflicted with, enhancing gene pool mobility.

[Lore]

As we eliminate ourselves we will also being doing a great job of exterminating most all other species of animal and a great deal of the plant life on the earth. So, the real threat to our long term existence won't be just limited numbers but the general reduction in biodiversity.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')i]The worst thing that can happen during the 1980s is not energy depletion, economic collapse, limited nuclear war, or conquest by a totalitarian government. As terrible as these catastrophes would be for us, they can be repaired within a few generations. The one process ongoing in the 1980s that will take millions of years to correct is the loss of genetic and species diversity by the destruction of natural habitats. This is the folly that our descendents are least likely to forgive us.

- E.O. Wilson, 1985

[Cog]

10%? I like those odds.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'E')O over-reacts. Plus he is wrong. His insistence that peak oil will be corrected is nutz. And his assumption that post-peak we will have the means to continue our plunder is arrogant and unfounded. Like most intellectuals these guys have no understanding of the real world outside their blogs.

[ralfy]

From what I remember, it was the first few centuries of the Western Middle Ages that was seen as "dark" because of destruction of various written and visual works, but the following ones paved the way for the Renaissance.

[jupiters_release]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'E')O over-reacts. Plus he is wrong. His insistence that peak oil will be corrected is nutz. And his assumption that post-peak we will have the means to continue our plunder is arrogant and unfounded. Like most intellectuals these guys have no understanding of the real world outside their blogs.

[Subjectivist]

The harder people deny reality the more likely a big down step in civilization is to occur.

It really is that simple, so long as people all agree to play the game BAU can stumble along a few more steps. Sooner or later you either fall down the stairs or off the cliff depending on just how determined you are to stretch BAU to the breaking point.

[Tanada]

Ehrlich was an optimist.