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"Can Collapse of Global Civ. Be Avoided?" by P&A Ehrlich

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Re: Ehrlich: 10% chance of avoiding total collapse

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 12 Oct 2015, 20:12:26

"Paranoid nonsense" !!??

Ah, glad to hear that militarism and income inequality will play no prominent roll in the future, and you are surely right that anyone who thinks it will is simply paranoid and nonsensical! :razz: :lol:

Is there some reading of history that leads you to believe that we are on the brink of universal peace and equality?!

Oh, never mind...you obviously don't want to consider anything that contradicts your pet vision.

...
Meanwhile, to bring in actual studies of people's attitudes about these things (if such heresy is allowed):

https://theconversation.com/many-fear-t ... fate-47034

Many fear the worst for humanity...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..The study, of more than 2000 people in the US, UK, Canada and Australia, found:

>> 54% of people surveyed rated the risk of our way of life ending within the next 100 years at 50% or greater;

>> almost one in four (24%) rated the risk of humans being wiped out within a century at 50% or greater...


So a quarter of the population of these anglophone countries think humans are more likely than not to go totally extinct this century!

I'm not sure that I'm that certain of human extinction in that time frame, and people think I'm a doomer. Apparently I more middle of the road than even I thought!

Sing along with me:

You may say that I'm a doomer,

But I'm not the only one...

:lol:

(The article has interesting stats, but it ends in baseless claims about human psychology and other psychobabble.)

ETA: On reflection, I'm betting that nearly all that 24% that think humans are going away in the next very few years/decades are the Rapture folks, not the stalwart followers of McPherson and his ilk.

(Also, I should thank Apneaman, who posted the link to the article on rs's blog.)
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Re: Ehrlich: 10% chance of avoiding total collapse

Unread postby jupiters_release » Wed 14 Oct 2015, 05:01:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')Total and complete collapse is a process that will still take a few centuries at the least, baring any black swans. It won't be a one two punch of just a warming climate and an energy shortage, but a combination of all the threats that an over crowded under resourced planet can muster.


How much temperature increase do you think humans, and all the other species we depend on, can survive?
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Re: Ehrlich: 10% chance of avoiding total collapse

Unread postby Lore » Wed 14 Oct 2015, 09:03:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')Total and complete collapse is a process that will still take a few centuries at the least, baring any black swans. It won't be a one two punch of just a warming climate and an energy shortage, but a combination of all the threats that an over crowded under resourced planet can muster.


How much temperature increase do you think humans, and all the other species we depend on, can survive?


First of all you have to define total collapse. Which I do as a system wide extinction event.

As far as how much heat we as humans can survive? It will depend on how many pockets of the planet people will be able to find that will be below future high averages. Other life won't be so temporarily lucky. Specially if temperatures increase towards 10°C by next century.
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Re: Ehrlich: 10% chance of avoiding total collapse

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 14 Oct 2015, 11:14:35

"10°C by next century"

And that would make large parts of the planet essentially unlivable for humans and most of the crops and livestock we depend on, just from the heat + humidity.
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Re: Ehrlich: 10% chance of avoiding total collapse

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 14 Oct 2015, 11:32:32

Soils over much of that region are not ideal for farming, iirc. But yes, there will always be a few winners amongst the vastly larger hordes of losers.
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Re: Ehrlich: 10% chance of avoiding total collapse

Unread postby Lore » Wed 14 Oct 2015, 12:11:50

The taiga zone has a relatively short growing season and constitutes a sparse narrow strip of area located mostly in the Northern Hemisphere. Essentially a large region which will likely turn into more of a massive bog and a malaria death trap before it dries out. It will be subject to many of the same climate disruptions we will witness everywhere else.

The fact is the climate is changing far too rapidly for most adaptation of plants, animals and eventually humans to cope with.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Ehrlich: 10% chance of avoiding total collapse

Unread postby Lore » Wed 14 Oct 2015, 13:05:55

What's a bog tractor plow?

Regardless won't be many people camping out here in any case by next century.

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Re: Ehrlich: 10% chance of avoiding total collapse

Unread postby Lore » Wed 14 Oct 2015, 13:12:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'B')ut it won't be a bog when it dries out.


That will be decades in the making and then you have to consider the growing season, soil conditions. And no, Monsanto will be no where to be found by that time. More like just a few starving tribes at the world's end.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Ehrlich: 10% chance of avoiding total collapse

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 14 Oct 2015, 17:46:39

"But it won't be a bog when it dries out."

No, it will be a fire that never stops...
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Re: Ehrlich: 10% chance of avoiding total collapse

Unread postby Lore » Wed 14 Oct 2015, 17:53:52

Good point Dohboi. Reminded me of my father's farm where we had several acres of swamp that use to regularly dry out about mid summer. One year the electric fence line caught the peat on fire and it burned underground for two years before it finally extinguished itself over the winter.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Ehrlich: 10% chance of avoiding total collapse

Unread postby Lore » Wed 14 Oct 2015, 18:33:03

But Pete...take a look at this peat!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Peat bog fires are burning issue in climate calculations

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Future Farmlands of N.A.

Human exploitation and drainage of carbon-rich peatlands has led to some of the biggest fires on Earth – another factor fanning the flames of global warming. LONDON, 10 January, 2015 − The greatest concentrations of the world’s soil carbon have been pinpointed by researchers − and much of it is a dangerously flammable addition to climate change concerns. An international scientific survey of peat bogs has calculated that they contain more carbon than all the world’s forests, heaths and grasslands together − and perhaps as much as the planet’s atmosphere. Since peat can smoulder underground for years, it is another potential factor in global warming calculations. Peat is simply leaf litter that never completely decayed. Ancient peatlands become distinctive ecosystems and, in some places, an economic resource.

Soil carbon

Merritt Turetsky, an ecosystem ecologist at the University of Guelph, Ontario, and colleagues report in Nature Geoscience that peatlands cover between only 2% and 3% of the planet’s land surface, but store 25% of the planet’s soil carbon. In the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, they cover about 4 million sq km and store between 500 and 600 billion tonnes of carbon. In the tropics – and especially in south-east Asia – they cover about 400,000 sq km and store 100 billion tonnes of carbon. The entire pool of atmospheric carbon, in the form of carbon dioxide, adds up to about 850 billion tonnes. In its pristine condition, a peat bog is unlikely to burn: the peat exists because vegetation doesn’t decay normally in water.

“Peat fires . . . lack the drama of flames, but they produce a lot of smoke”

But, over thousands of years, humans have drained the peat bogs, exploited them for fuel, and even used peat as a gardening mulch. Dry peat burns easily, and some of the largest fires on Earth are now in the drained peatlands. “When people think of a forest fire, they probably think of flames licking up into treetops, and animals trying to escape,” Dr Turetsky says. “But peat fires tend to be creeping ground fires. They can burn for days or weeks, even under relatively wet conditions. They lack the drama of flames, but they produce a lot of smoke.” The research by Canadian, British, Dutch and US scientists is part of a wider global attempt to understand the carbon cycle. Global warming happens because more carbon goes into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide than plants in the oceans and on land can absorb. So it makes sense to work out in fine detail where the carbon comes from, and how it is soaked up by living things.

Enduring hazard

Peat fires are an enduring hazard, and a local threat to human health. But in a warming world, in which the human population has trebled in one lifetime, the peatlands are drying out, and could fan the flames of climate change. Once started, peat fires are hard to stop. Fire in the treetops can race across the forest at 10 kilometres an hour, while smouldering peat can take a week to travel half a metre. But both can happen at once, the scientists report. “The tropical peatlands of South-east Asia are a clear demonstration of how human activity can alter the natural relationships between ecosystems and fire,” said Susan Page, professor of physical geography at the University of Leicester, UK, and a co-author of the latest report. In a Nature study in 2002, she calculated that a dramatic and sustained forest fire in Indonesia in 1997 may have sent 2.5 billion tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere – a figure that could have added up to 40% of all the emissions from all the fossil fuel burning that year. “Tropical peatlands are highly resistant to natural fires, but in recent decades humans have drained peatlands for plantation agriculture,” she said. “People cause the deep layers of peat to dry out, and also greatly increase the number of fire ignitions. It’s a double threat.” – Climate News Network

http://climatenewsnetwork.net/peat-bog- ... culations/
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Re: Ehrlich: 10% chance of avoiding total collapse

Unread postby Lore » Wed 14 Oct 2015, 19:20:52

Or, it could be, "We All Live In A Yellow Submarine"!
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Re: Ehrlich: 10% chance of avoiding total collapse

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 14 Oct 2015, 22:41:31

You guys are missing out, peat wildfires are just resources being wasted, ask any of the people who get their electricity from a peat or lignite burning power plant.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ough Ree Power at Lanesborough, Co Longford, opened in 2004, replacing an older turf-burning power station, at a cost of €200 million. It generates up to 100MW of electricity.

West Offaly Power, at Shannonbridge, also replaced an older station. It opened in January 2005, at a cost of €250 million. It can generate up to 150MW of electricity.

The ESB is planning to retain its two major turf-fired electricity generation plants in the midlands after 2019, despite expectations that they would close that year.

Bord na Móna, which supplies the turf for the power stations, this week told staff that renewal of its supply deal with the ESB was “absolutely critical” to its overall business.

About 100 jobs are based in the power stations, while Bord na Móna said “a significant number” of its 2,200 employees were dependent on the sale of turf to the ESB for use in the power plants.

Mr Quinn told staff: “As many of you know, the fuel supply agreements for the two ESB stations in west Offaly and Lough Ree will expire in 2019. After this date, the ESB, our company’s biggest single customer, was no longer committed to purchasing our peat to run their power stations.”

He said he was “pleased to tell you that the ESB has now confirmed that they want to continue operating both power stations well beyond 2019”.

Mr Quinn said success in ongoing negotiations on price was “absolutely critical for the future, not only of feedstock, but Bord na Móna overall”.

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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Ehrlich: 10% chance of avoiding total collapse

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 15 Oct 2015, 00:54:54

Those are both the nearest power station to where I live. The railway that carries the turf to the Shannonbridge station are less than 5km away from my house. We also use it for heating and hot water.

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