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Can the world support 15 billion people?

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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 22:33:54

The Earth is overburdened with only 7.25 billion people. So I doubt the Earth can support another 7 plus billion people. That's my answer.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 05:26:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')We have done things, the '70s were a great time for doing big things.


They were indeed. I define religion or spirituality with a pretty broad brush. I would consider the 60's 70's as a spiritual breaking out period in fact. It was against a very rigid establishment. The consequences of overshoot on the other hand is a physical event caused by humans. In the 70's "The Oppressive Man" was a resilient status quo that was being challenged. That is quite something else.

The consequences of overshoot will be highly destabilizing and the spirituality that this might spawn wont be a rebellion to something resilient as what we saw in the 70's.

Polarities and divisions and ideologies all get reduced to the common denominator of a trashed environment. The constraints will bring out primitive human impulses that will increase instability even more. Highly unstable times. in a midst this violent primitive game of musical chairs as an overshot population scrambles and fights over dwindling crumbs we might see emerge an altruistic spirituality.

In a midst very violent and unstable social conditions of the middle east 2000 years ago a figure emerged preaching compassion and turning the other cheek. This altruism was born out of social instability.

When you consider the degree of environmental instability that will accompany human overshoot, an altruistic spirituality born out of this could similarly direct compassion and turning the other cheek toward our mother earth.

Spirituality is always born out of contrast. Dark and light, evil and good, etc. Since the consequences of overshoot will be dark indeed the altruism that can be born from this could reach down deep into the spiritual psyche of the survivors and truly embed taboos and commandments toward self regulation.

My hopeful narrative. That is all this is............. I know that.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 05:30:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')If those 2 billion saw the cataclysmic death of the 5 billion there is at least the possibility that bearing witness to this could instill in the survivors taboos and commandments against over population and consumption.


I believe you're up against genetics here. Our DNA is not hard wired to act much different then we do right now. Humans seem to resist selective breeding so this won't be factored out. I suspect that the new boss will be the same as the old boss.


Lore, our DNA has a tight grip but we are not lizards.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 05:46:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
Can a secular society survive overshoot?


I forgot to add a couple of other questions. Can a solely secular society ever achieve sustainability?

Is sustainability only about managing resources, economies, energy, population?

Is a deeper spiritual relationship with our mother earth required as well?
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 06:03:39

Ibon, your hopeful narrative is realistic. Nobody can predict exactly the future. Who knows maybe some ET's will come down and fix everything. Yet being so cynical about human nature belies what our potential is for good. The aftermath of this cataclysm cannot but make those who survive soul search and they will attempt to go on with ideas, laws and rules that will reflect their recognition of the mechanisms which led to this cataclysm. Human nature is malleable but if destiny affords some humans the opportunity to go on, I believe the lessons and traumas they will have endured will instill in them a deep understanding and resoluteness of what path they must take. Of course I and you Ibon could be wrong and survivors may adopt a survival of the fittest attitude which would not be wise as the challenges they would face would require cooperation. Again, who can really know for sure.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby careinke » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 06:11:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
WE are in great need of a new religious paradigm to manage this deep deep contradiction between survival and welcoming the cleansing remedy of a die-off for the well being of both our species and our fellow flora and fauna.

Worshipping The Overshoot Predator is the Jesus of the 21st century.......the messiah has returned....

WE have prayed to invisible men in the sky for our own individual salvation. WE now need to add a savior for our species as well. And some new formulated prayers for the collective........

As 5 billion of us lay ourselves down to sleep
I pray the Overshoot Predator our souls to keep,
If 5 billion die before we are truly awake,
Bless us Overshoot Predator our souls to take
For those 2 billion who are spared his wrath
will continue down a sustainable path.


Oh, Oh, Oh..... I want to add five commandments to the new religion (Ten were to many to memorize).

1. Thou shalt take responsibility for the wellbeing of yourself and your children.

2. Thou shalt take care of the earth

3. Thou shalt care for people

4. Thou shall limit populations so not to harm the earth or people.

5. Thou shall limit consumption, with surpluses returned to benefit the earth and its people.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 07:44:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')4. Thou shall limit populations so not to harm the earth or people.

.

4. Thou shalt limit thy procreation to replacement level.
To be clear about how populations are to be controlled.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 08:31:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', ' ')Of course I and you Ibon could be wrong and survivors may adopt a survival of the fittest attitude which would not be wise as the challenges they would face would require cooperation. Again, who can really know for sure.


Survival of the fittest is not only tooth and claw. Altruism evolved in humans because tribes that practiced it were able to out compete those that did not. They were more fit. They survived. Survival of the fittest is consistent with cooperation and altruism. Can this work for civilizations as well in regards to their relationship with mother earth. Are there selection pressures for civilization to cultivate altruism toward our planet? That is what 21st century human overshoot is actually all about.

Altruism just needs to stretch beyond the limits of the tribe and encompass mother earth. The first time humans will experience selection pressure to extend this altruism will be to our response to the consequences of global human overshoot. There will be no new continents to colonize. No new energy source to weasel our way out of Malthusian constraints. Altruism toward our planet becomes the only jokers in the deck. If we want civilization we negotiate or civilization will perish.

The only way altruism emerging to encompass mother earth will be possible is if through the darkness of overshoot a thread of knowledge is preserved. The external evidence of overshoot will remain for centuries or thousands of years as Lore mentioned. This will serve as a constant reminder. This can act as a steady drum beat long enough into the future that sacred taboos around excessive breeding and consumption are cemented into religion and culture and governance and economies.

Civilization can then continue its experiment. There is of course an alternative that isolated small tribes of humans live in thatched roof hamlets in the shadows of the ruins of industrial civilization just like the Mayans were after the 10th century. This is equally a plausible outcome. That is also not a bad choice for our planet.

What we are discussing here is really the preservation of civilization. Without sacred altruism toward our planet this 8000 year experiment with civilization will draw to a close.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 08:35:54

Carinke....

Georgia Guidestones inscription...

Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
Guide reproduction wisely — improving fitness and diversity.
Unite humanity with a living new language.
Rule passion — faith — tradition — and all things with tempered reason.
Protect people and nations with fair laws and just courts.
Let all nations rule internally resolving external disputes in a world court.
Avoid petty laws and useless officials.
Balance personal rights with social duties.
Prize truth — beauty — love — seeking harmony with the infinite.
Be not a cancer on the earth — Leave room for nature — Leave room for nature.


I dunno, maybe we have been visited by advanced extraterrestrials, and this is the message they left us.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 10:04:00

Well then I will posit a optimistic scenario. Our numbers are dwindled considerably. Let us say less then 1 billion. The smaller population will be more manageable. We will retain a semblance of knowledge and information related to different areas of concern to humans. The trials and tribulations will make what is left of mankind marshal around the all-encompassing notion that they cannot ever again permit themselves to take mother Earth for granted and thus their overriding Law will be to value and protect Earth. Careinke states it well. Will it be feasible? Well the hope is that Nature in particular Global Warming does not completely change living conditions on this planet. If it does all bets are off. The optimism should lie in that we have so transgressed against the very thing that allows us to live namely Earth that all who persist will have surely learned that Earth is our only home and we have no other option but to take care of her lest we perish which is exactly what the survivors will experience first hand.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 12:54:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'C')arinke....

Georgia Guidestones inscription...

Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
Guide reproduction wisely — improving fitness and diversity.
Unite humanity with a living new language.
Rule passion — faith — tradition — and all things with tempered reason.
Protect people and nations with fair laws and just courts.
Let all nations rule internally resolving external disputes in a world court.
Avoid petty laws and useless officials.
Balance personal rights with social duties.
Prize truth — beauty — love — seeking harmony with the infinite.
Be not a cancer on the earth — Leave room for nature — Leave room for nature.


I dunno, maybe we have been visited by advanced extraterrestrials, and this is the message they left us.

Some stupid conspiracy theorists misinterpret the Georgia Guidestones as some evil conspiracy by the NWO (New World Order) to eliminate 95% of the population. That's just bullshit, and if you are dumb enough to believe in that bullshit, I have lost all hope in you.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Lore » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 13:11:05

There won't be 7 billion in the future, why? Because the planet's resources cannot support 7 billion today. And under chaos I wouldn't expect that humans will become somehow more efficient in their utilization, or will they become more capable in meeting a string of never ending crisis events.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 13:17:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')here will be no revival renaissance or armegeddon. There certainly won't be 15 billion people.

Good because I certainly wouldn't want there to be 15 billion people. The Earth is already overburdened with 7 billion people. If we doubled population again, it is unlikely the Earth can support that many people. The population will quickly crash, and there will be a die-off.

What most people don't understand is that we can't keep on doubling population at 1.3% growth rate per year. The world population grows at around 1.3% per year. At this growth rate, in 780 years, there will be so many people on this planet that there is one person per square meter of dry land area. In another 2500 years at this growth rate, in another 2400 years, the population of the Earth will equal the mass of the Earth. This 1.3% growth rate can't go on forever for population.

Why the people of this planet think there can be infinite population growth is beyond me. Anyone with half a brain will realize that infinite population growth is not possible on a finite planet. I just demonstrated how infinite population growth is impossible at 1.3% growth rate per year.

Religions like Christianity and Islam need to be thrown in the trash can because these religions encourage infinite population growth. They really do. Just read the Bible, and it says to be "fruitul and multiply". And we certainly did that. And now we are in a state of overshoot.

The average person still believes that infinite population growth is somehow possible on a finite planet. It clearly isn't, and unless we get rid of these delusions, we are doomed as a species.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Lore » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 13:52:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'T')here won't be 7 billion in the future, why? Because the planet's resources cannot support 7 billion today.
How do you know this?


Just from this week's front page here. We've only discussed these constraints a few thousand times here already.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Forget peak oil; we’ve reached peak everything
http://peakoil.com/enviroment/forget-pe ... everything


Let's forget about environmental degradation alone for a moment and look at just one non renewable resource from the above list like phosphorus. Big Ag Is not going to exist in 40 years plus to feed the world's population even at present numbers.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Lore » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 14:09:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '&')quot;Just from this week's front page here. We've only discussed these constraints a few thousand times here already. "

And I have disagreed with the consensus view every time.


And what logical information do you have to disagree with the consensus view?
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 15:09:00

I place this quote because H2 posted this well thought out post and it does make sense for the most part. However, I disagree somewhat in that we can make rational decisions if pressed to do so. We witness and act as such when having to problem solve and when an important decision needs to be made correctly. Our situation going forward will more and more involve problem solving and will be of highest import involving our very survival. So the impetus and motivation to practice rationality will be at the greatest level. Here goes the quote:
h2:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'k')ublikhan seems to be making the classic error of believing that humans actually made a series of rational decisions about how to get where we are today, and can thus turn around and make another series of rational decisions about how to unwind our mess. This is a nice fantasy, though you'll be hard pressed to find a single historical example of this happening in any failing ecosystem/society. The myth of rational man is really strong, a nice fairy tale, and no matter what actual data you find that shows that is simply not the case, ie, it's an illusion, some people can't let go of that fantasy. I see no more rationality in our current behavior among industrialized/agricultural humans that I see in the behavior of ant colonies. Maybe less, since those tend to reach an equilibrium state with their environment, unlike industrial man.

Europeans filled the Americas because they were overpopulated, and they had the means to move around cheaply enough to make that possible, and they had portable food supplies that let them overrun the natives and just overwhelm them. There was nothing rational in the process. Rationality builds the tools etc, just ask the germans about their use of it to solve their issues in ww II. And large scale agricultural man filled europe, pushing aside all the original inhabitants, who were doing fine for a long time before that.

I don't currently see how any nation state out there can adopt a rational course, which means, terminate resource exploitation instantly, stop carbon fuel burning instantly, terminate the system of wealth/power distribution based on non sustainable practices, and then rationally accept that the unsustainable populations will not be sustained. And after that, rationally work to become sustainable again, as we've done before, here and there throughout our history as bipeds. But that's not going to happen, because it never has. What will happen no longer requires future sight, it's already here now, and you can see it everywhere you look. I had some hope for Bolivia, but the pressures of overpopulation, oddly enough, make taking actual rational actions nearly impossible politically speaking, and they couldn't do it either, if they couldn't, nobody can I believe.

Reason isn't what drives our variants of homo something, sapiens is a stupid self picked name, we do walk on two legs, but we generally don't know very much, sad to say. Ants also, by the way, solve complicated engineering problems, farm, have social hierarchies, etc, but they don't think they are hot sh#t because of that, they just go about their ant business, just like we go about ours, without a clue generally why we do what we do, but happy to solve various technical problems on the way, just like ants.

There have been peoples that have managed to avoid this trap, they always share a few traits, by necessity, one is to form taboos against psychotic behaviors like overpopulating their ecosystems, just like we've formed taboos against not doing so. Another is to form social rules that exist within nature, and allow a fitting in with nature by their nature, so to speak.

It's not an accident that it's been said through the ages that man lives in a world of illusion, maya, and sees reality as if through a veil, it's something in how our brains work when they get disconnected from nature I believe, not positive, but that seems most likely. Actual connection with nature minute by minute has auto correct features in it, ie, if you fail to do the right things, you die, your people die. The solution has always been to just stop, but people make up excuses why we or they can't, incredible mental constructs saying why we can't stop. And that's because the actual motivations are totally irrational, it's like telling or asking an anthill to stop, they wouldn't be able to process the request any more than we can.

So the op question of why overpopulation is a taboo topic is the right question in a sense, but the problem with taboos is you can't really talk your way around them. Try it with some you might recognize, like incest, for example. Give it a whirl, explain to someone why you should be able to have sex with your child. You won't have much luck, because all taboos turn off that stuff and promote whatever they promote, by working at a deeper level, pre-rational. Once our current behavior becomes taboo, which it has to in order for us to change our course, then standard modern behaviors like greed arrogance, vice, etc, will once again be seen as taboo, dirty things that no self respecting person would do, because that's how it is, and every right thinking person knows that.

I know some variant of humanity will figure this out again, but I doubt it will be us, we've been genetically engineering ourselves for ages now to be removed from nature, so it's hard to see how we'll be the ones to actually solve the problem. It may never get solved, of course, it will be hard to tell, but it is nice to see that it was solved during some ages in some places, those were where people lived sustainably for thousands of years, you can only do that if you've solved the riddle, and it's been solved, and it will be solved again. But not by 7 billion people, just look back at global populations re industrialism and that gives an idea of how many there will be able to do that, maybe less since we've really ruined a lot of land mass, and have made or are making big chunks unlivable for a long time.

It's a real question if it's even possible to live rationally in an irrational world, as well. Probably not, it's like trying to live here without money.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby careinke » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 16:09:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')4. Thou shall limit populations so not to harm the earth or people.

.

4. Thou shalt limit thy procreation to replacement level.
To be clear about how populations are to be controlled.


Actually I was trying to include more than just humans. Cattle feed lots would be another example of not limiting the population to what the environment could handle. Large scale monoculture would be another.

But you are right, that commandment needs more work.
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