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Can the world support 15 billion people?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby vtsnowedin » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 16:20:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')4. Thou shall limit populations so not to harm the earth or people.

.

4. Thou shalt limit thy procreation to replacement level.
To be clear about how populations are to be controlled.


Actually I was trying to include more than just humans. Cattle feed lots would be another example of not limiting the population to what the environment could handle. Large scale monoculture would be another.

But you are right, that commandment needs more work.

With only one billion people surviving you would only need one seventh of the current herds and flocks to feed them or perhaps one quarter if you let living standards rise. farmers won't raise animals they have no market for so that problem will take care of itself if you can solve the initial problem of reducing the population from seven to one billion.
Does this new religion require an all powerful god figure to worship or can the body of knowledge we have gathered about biology and environmental limits be "The Light" that guides us?
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby DesuMaiden » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 17:16:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')4. Thou shall limit populations so not to harm the earth or people.

.

4. Thou shalt limit thy procreation to replacement level.
To be clear about how populations are to be controlled.


Actually I was trying to include more than just humans. Cattle feed lots would be another example of not limiting the population to what the environment could handle. Large scale monoculture would be another.

But you are right, that commandment needs more work.

With only one billion people surviving you would only need one seventh of the current herds and flocks to feed them or perhaps one quarter if you let living standards rise. farmers won't raise animals they have no market for so that problem will take care of itself if you can solve the initial problem of reducing the population from seven to one billion.
Does this new religion require an all powerful god figure to worship or can the body of knowledge we have gathered about biology and environmental limits be "The Light" that guides us?

A new religion based on sustainability would be far better than the religion of infinite growth. We live in a world were infinite population growth is a desirable and good thing. This has to end if we are survive as a species.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby careinke » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 18:37:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') With only one billion people surviving you would only need one seventh of the current herds and flocks to feed them or perhaps one quarter if you let living standards rise. farmers won't raise animals they have no market for so that problem will take care of itself if you can solve the initial problem of reducing the population from seven to one billion.
Does this new religion require an all powerful god figure to worship or can the body of knowledge we have gathered about biology and environmental limits be "The Light" that guides us?


Well first off, it's Ibons religion and he already has a deity, the Overshoot Predator (OP). :) Personally, I would prefer no deity, but I can see the value in one, especially the OP. It would make things easier for those on the left side of the intelligence bell curve.

There could be a legend about the OP visiting man, after the collapse, claiming credit for all the previous suffering, and threatening to come back if his commandments are not followed. I kind of picture the OP as a shape shifting huge dragon.

Or, someone could claim to have a vision brought to him/her by the OP claiming the world will end unless the OP's commandments are followed. Then, as bad things happen, ascribe them to the OP. With enough converts, the bottleneck may even widen a bit.

Personally, I can see very little downside, (except for convenience), to trying to follow the commandments now. As Individuals we don't need to wait until the collapse has happened to take action.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Lore » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 19:32:55

Going back down to 1.5 billion people, or what ever number is not going to mean we can pick up sticks and carry on like nothings happened, or will further happen to push that number lower.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Ibon » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 19:50:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') Does this new religion require an all powerful god figure to worship or can the body of knowledge we have gathered about biology and environmental limits be "The Light" that guides us?


Yes it could but to avoid exploitation of the commons you need more than rational knowledge. You need a sense of the sacred toward our earth and fellow flora and fauna, a kin to what a mother feels toward her child. You wouldn't then necessarily need the mythology of an invisible man or overshoot predator in the sky. The Overshoot Predator is really only required initially while overshoot corrects back down to carrying capacity. Afterwards he can go into remission and only remain a threat if commandments aren't followed.

A sense of the sacred is culturally taught with a set of taboos and rituals. If any of you have spent intimate time in the wilderness you know what happens after a couple of days when you hit that base line place where the separation of man and nature dissolves and you have that sense of kinship. This is not esoteric hocus pocus. This is something that could be cultivated and nourished and taught to children. We all have this innate bonding capacity with nature, we just choose to remain clueless as I mentioned in a previous post.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby onlooker » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 20:16:59

I think we should heed what Ibon is saying as it directs itself to what we are to be about as humans going forth. Most have heard the oft used phrase "What is the meaning of life" Well we all can identify with philosophical musings as I think all humans have these thoughts occasionally. So the objective is to instill in ourselves in a profound way the way we should think and behave as humans, you could say consciously and intentionally evolve as humans. We will have the transition that will highlight and force us to confront our flaws but then we must make this new insight not just the law of the land but the essence of what we should be about as humans. In that sense I agree that this mode of thinking should be seen as sacred/religious/spiritual. Finally I may add that we need this bonding and care for/of to extend to EACH OTHER. The challenges to be confronted require us to join as one besides we all should welcome this solidarity as a blessing that we have sorely lacked throughout our history. Oh and if this is veering away from the subject of this post my apologies
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Pops » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 20:57:51

Still there is no personal reward for foreswearing all those evil things like unprotected sex, gluttonous stuffing of thine face (talking food here) and cutting down the forest to roll your Maoi to the perfect seaside vantage.

gotta have a hook, resurrection and everlasting life seems to do it for lots of folks, if communing with nature were the hook we'd still be pagans.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby onlooker » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 21:05:55

Pops gotta give that one to you. Our selfish and hedonistic side can always get the better of us. So then forget about reward rather think punishment. Now I do not necessarily mean down to the dungeon to be tortured and killed. More like banished because it seems in the future nothing will be worse then to be cast adrift alone in the unforgiving wilderness for a current or former denizen of a civilized urban locality.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby vtsnowedin » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 21:33:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')till there is no personal reward for foreswearing all those evil things like unprotected sex, gluttonous stuffing of thine face (talking food here) and cutting down the forest to roll your Maoi to the perfect seaside vantage.

gotta have a hook, resurrection and everlasting life seems to do it for lots of folks, if communing with nature were the hook we'd still be pagans.


The personnel reward is leaving things in good shape for your grandchildren and their children. But if it involves worshiping some mythical supreme being whose pronouncements come down to the masses through a priesthood count me out.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Newfie » Wed 04 Feb 2015, 22:59:49

Cy,
Make that 2. Hard core atheist.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby careinke » Thu 05 Feb 2015, 00:04:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')The personnel reward is leaving things in good shape for your grandchildren and their children. But if it involves worshiping some mythical supreme being whose pronouncements come down to the masses through a priesthood count me out.


Well, I too am in your camp. However, I can and do, accept the "commandments" as my ethics. Metaphysics is not really my thing.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby vtsnowedin » Thu 05 Feb 2015, 09:36:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')The personnel reward is leaving things in good shape for your grandchildren and their children. But if it involves worshiping some mythical supreme being whose pronouncements come down to the masses through a priesthood count me out.


Well, I too am in your camp. However, I can and do, accept the "commandments" as my ethics. Metaphysics is not really my thing.

Well I don't recall anybody getting into trouble following the ten commandments. Some of them are just sound logic. The first three are self serving to the priesthood and church but the rest will do. I can't get it down to two like George Carlin did. :-D
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Newfie » Thu 05 Feb 2015, 10:14:03

Did I post this above or elsewhere? Oh well....

Georgia Guidestones...not a bad start...

Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
Guide reproduction wisely — improving fitness and diversity.
Unite humanity with a living new language.
Rule passion — faith — tradition — and all things with tempered reason.
Protect people and nations with fair laws and just courts.
Let all nations rule internally resolving external disputes in a world court.
Avoid petty laws and useless officials.
Balance personal rights with social duties.
Prize truth — beauty — love — seeking harmony with the infinite.
Be not a cancer on the earth — Leave room for nature — Leave room for nature.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Pops » Thu 05 Feb 2015, 10:51:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'T')he personnel reward is leaving things in good shape for your grandchildren and their children.

Yes, exactly my point, we theoretically have that motivation now.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Newfie » Thu 05 Feb 2015, 12:19:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'T')he personnel reward is leaving things in good shape for your grandchildren and their children.

Yes, exactly my point, we theoretically have that motivation now.


If by "we" you mean humanity in general, it's hard to see the evidence.

Of course I take "theoretically" to be the operative word. We can, on an individual level, conceive it. We can't effect iron any communal level.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Ibon » Fri 06 Feb 2015, 07:54:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', ' ') Personally, I would prefer no deity, but I can see the value in one, especially the OP. It would make things easier for those on the left side of the intelligence bell curve.


It is not uncommon in secular society to label the religious as being a refuge for the poor or the dumb.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')if it involves worshiping some mythical supreme being whose pronouncements come down to the masses through a priesthood count me out.


Secular society is rooted in the freedom of the individual that rejects religious institutions attempts through a hierarchy of priests to control the masses.

Secular atheists resonate strongly with these two sentiments and they have many good reasons for doing so, especially if you look at the irrelevance and moral decay that you can observe within religious institutions today.

We need to take this however a step further and ask if the secular world is really free of myths, superstitions and delusions. Many of the very same secular atheists who are convinced that they are on the right hand of the bell curve of intelligence believe in the religion of progress, the religion of materialism, have "faith" that technology will solve any constraints that may threaten Kudzu Apes manifest destiny of continuing the exponential destruction of our biosphere.

Secular society has totally failed to enlighten when it comes to ecology, thermodynamics and understanding exponential growth. The only explanation that can explain this deep disconnect is that we are still holding on to myths about how we see ourselves in relationship to the natural world. We are separate, superior and free of obligations to our mother earth. Does anyone want to claim that this is rational behavior free of myths?

So we all have to acknowledge with some humility that we are not as free from mythological narratives as we might believe.

Materialism opened the doors to the industrial revolution which opened the doors to widening the separation from man to his natural environment. This has further evolved to where man today has evolved an ethos of the individual that arrives at the extreme that through the digital toys he holds in his hands he can separate himself organically from his fellow humans.

We are all on our small islands, we are all becoming emperors of one.

The consequences of replacing a sense of the sacred to the narcissistic pursuit of the individual will follow until a force reverses this trajectory and starts to pull the billions of "emperors of one" back into the fold of a cohesive spiritual framework regarding mans place in the world. This will obviously not happen from any existing religious institution which are today by and large discredited by the secular world. It will also not happen by any government which by and large have become discredited by their increasing incompetence. Nor will it happen by our economic system that has promoted the narcissistic pursuit of individual materialism through capitalism which is creating a larger percentage everyday of the disenfranchised through disparity.

Humans cannot live without myths. Even the most devout atheists believing in reason and logic cannot resolve the secular failure to understand the ecological destruction we are causing to our planet. The best they can come up with here on this site for example is to conclude that we are a flawed species or that our DNA has predestined us to repeat overshoot again and again and again.

The consequences of overshoot that are beginning to unfold and will accelerate later this century are really the consequences of failed myths, whether you have "faith" in one of the current irrelevant religious institutions or whether your "faith" is in the cult of the secular individual.

And so I ask again, will the consequences of overshoot have the power to redefine our myths and reawaken a sense of the sacred toward our mother earth?
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Newfie » Fri 06 Feb 2015, 08:17:05

Ug!

Threads converging in thought about religion. Can't remember what I posted where anymore.

In my view religion can have three functions.
1. It can explain the mysterious. For many science has taken over this role.
2. It provides law and order. Now largely given over to governments.
3. It is a place of community, where folks go to share joy and Greiff. And it provides a social structure. This role remains.

Ethical Humanisim is a non-theistic religion, they believe in no God.

It does serve this third function providing a way for agnostics and atheists to have the equivalent of a religious community where they can socialize, celebrate, and grieve.

I was fairly deeply involved for a while.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby vtsnowedin » Fri 06 Feb 2015, 08:39:55

That was pretty long Ibon, my eye were glazing over from the ten dollar a word verbiage. :razz:
I'll pick at just one point.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Humans cannot live without myths. Even the most devout atheists believing in reason and logic cannot resolve the secular failure to understand the ecological destruction we are causing to our planet.

To understand human greed and the prevalence of ignorance goes a long way towards understanding our destruction of the ecosystem. No myth needed.
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