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Can the world support 15 billion people?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 06 Feb 2015, 08:53:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'T')hat was pretty long Ibon, my eye were glazing over from the ten dollar a word verbiage. :razz:
I'll pick at just one point.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Humans cannot live without myths. Even the most devout atheists believing in reason and logic cannot resolve the secular failure to understand the ecological destruction we are causing to our planet.

To understand human greed and the prevalence of ignorance goes a long way towards understanding our destruction of the ecosystem. No myth needed.


How do you explain the selective way we apply our intelligence? It is not ignorance alone if we can so brilliantly manage the distribution of goods and services on one hand at the same time as we undermine the very ecological infrastructure that supports this. This ignorance of ecology is not for lack of information which would explain ignorance. When we choose to remain clueless in this regard we are practicing a myth, a cult of the individual and materialism, and this moves closer to your second point of greed. Selfish greed has always been balanced with altruism that was a balancing act since we evolved as a social species. Why has greed dominated in current secular society? Because we pursue the cult of the individual cut off from the natural world, cut off from a sense of the sacred, cut off from a religiosity that ties one to ones community that is not solely based on interactions based on commerce which is what we have mostly today. This comes from a "belief" system and is not rational.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 06 Feb 2015, 08:55:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')
I was fairly deeply involved for a while.


What do you think failed to bind you to this group?
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 06 Feb 2015, 09:07:15

Unfortunately:

1) Science is a religion, one that demands exclusive worship while denying any deity.

2) As always, humanity exists in a broad spectrum, all the way from militant Atheists to Jihadists of various flavors, ready/willing/able to send anybody to death who does not share their particular flavor of religion, or lack of a religion.

3) The center of the bell curve includes the Secularists and those who acknowledge a nominal deity but don't actually have any use for that deity, in terms of behavior modification.

4) In the parlance of PO.com, religion is a dry hole.

5) Again I say to you: the nature of mankind will not change in any near term timeframe, just as it has not in recorded history.

6) The nature of mankind is the cause of our approaching Doom.

7) Whether Doom is fast or slow, a bang or a whimper, enlightened or ignorant, all are possible outcomes.

8 ) Survivors are possible, but all survivors will share the basic and ever-so-slow-to-change nature of Humanity.

9) Those rare individuals who can step outside of the nature of Humanity and act for the greater good of the planet/species/ecology/etc. we refer to as Saints, or Geniuses, or Evil Geniuses, or Devils, depending upon perspective.

10) An extensive education and decades of experience are required to distinguish humans of this type from the smelly ape tribe - and we will never have a tenth of the numbers of such folks as would be needed for Humanity as a whole to act Intelligently.

11) No, these are simple observations, and I did not carve them on stone tablets. Quit annoying me, I warn you that I am armed with Cynicism, Humor, Knowledge, and a variety of conventional weapons.

12) I'm retiring in 114 days, and I'm already feeling short enough to walk under a door.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 06 Feb 2015, 09:15:52

Ibon wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow do you explain the selective way we apply our intelligence? It is not ignorance alone if we can so brilliantly manage the distribution of goods and services on one hand at the same time as we undermine the very ecological infrastructure that supports this.

We have been working on the problems or producing and distributing goods for centuries while the science of ecologic limits really only began in the 1970"s. Add in the detrimental effects of religion which still has many followers as seen by the evolution vs. creation debate etc.
The religion of knowledge from science and logic is still in it's infancy.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Lore » Fri 06 Feb 2015, 09:42:37

KJ... You would think in all those years you'd have learned something about the differences between science and religion. Science is not a religion.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')cience and religion generally pursue knowledge of the universe using different methodologies. Science acknowledges reason, empiricism, and evidence, while religions include revelation, faith and sacredness.


The fact that they both seek to understand the universe around us is the one thing they have in common.

The well used trope by deniers is that any science contrary to a set of groundless opposite beliefs must in fact also be a measure of faith itself since it doesn't match with closely held preconceived notions.

A rejection of scientific evidence doesn't make those facts a matter of belief.
Last edited by Lore on Fri 06 Feb 2015, 10:09:30, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 06 Feb 2015, 10:06:06

Very well said Lore. I do believe reading these posts and as I have delved over the years over material related to our current strand of conversation that we all must acknowledge that we are as humans quite emotional to a flaw. The conscious ability to control and make subservient our emotions to logic and reason is limited at this point for many. Now this relates to our predicament in so much as what has been the catalyst or motivation for so many embracing this consumeristic self-centered lifestyle? It is in no small part our emotions. Think about traveling, eating yummy food, wearing nice clothes, having a swimming pool etc. They all in some way appeal to some emotional craving, whim or need. I do agree that we are not going to change this aspect of ourselves too quickly. So we must then embrace a different avenue to quell or satisfy our emotional impulses. In that sense I fully agree with Ibon, we must direct our passions to the inspiring message of being one as a species and with Earth and with the Universe. People in the context of the Overshoot playing out will respond to this because of the catastrophic consequences playing out and because it will appeal to the sense of meaning or what is our destiny or mission which deep down resonates in all of us. Again it does not have to be religion in the conventional sense. Let us call it a Unifying Spirituality.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Pops » Fri 06 Feb 2015, 10:55:31

I think there are head people and gut people.

There is a movie about some Boston, Irish, gangster types and in the movie the kid brother is killed. The reaction of the older brothers is wailing and crying and hair tearing and all manner of emotional acting out, in the middle of the street.

That type of, I don't know, outburst? Look-At-My-Grief-ism? Basic lack of control - is so foreign to me I have a hard time describing it. Not the grief or desire for revenge but the willingness to immerse one's self in emotion to such an extent that one has no control is completely against my nature.

Obviously I'm a head case, errr, I mean I am in my head much more than my gut. The study that argued conservatives, more than liberals, have a physical reaction to photographs of whatever repellant scenes makes perfect sense to me. Not as a slam on conservatives but as a partial explanation of the difference in liberal and conservative views. The conservative has a gut reaction and the liberal a head reaction. The liberal of course is wishy washy and without conviction from the conservatives standpoint and the liberal sees the conservative as rigid, hidebound. The funny thing is the conservative is described as the uncaring emotionless one while the liberal is the "bleeding heart,"- the evidence is just the opposite. LOL

Having said all that, I think there is a sweet spot where religions, to have a wide acceptance, must hit. Somewhere between the head; mystical explanations of whatever the "sciences" can't explain, existentialism, laws, blah
and the gut; grief, as Newf said, that certain "spiritual" feeling that you get in church, and also as Newf said the fellowship.

The problem of course is that for the most part, religion is hereditary, well, at least a learned behavior [passed] down from ones parents. It is exactly like bigotry or sports fanaticism, it is a tribal vestige.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Fri 06 Feb 2015, 11:08:57

Since the overwhelming evidence is that we are now at peak food, it is unlikely we can ever increase our population to 15 billion. However, we can feed about 10 billion people with our current food production, so we MIGHT be able to increase our population to 10 billion. But I doubt we can increase our population to 15 billion, because there is no way we can grow enough food to feed 15 billion people.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 06 Feb 2015, 12:36:54

just wanted to add something to my last post. It is obvious also that this type of harmony with each other and nature is also very logical and practical after all it is our lack of harmony with Earth that has bought us to this point. Also harmony with each other or just plain peaceful coexistence would be surely welcomed by all at this point.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Fri 06 Feb 2015, 13:15:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'j')ust wanted to add something to my last post. It is obvious also that this type of harmony with each other and nature is also very logical and practical after all it is our lack of harmony with Earth that has bought us to this point. Also harmony with each other or just plain peaceful coexistence would be surely welcomed by all at this point.

The average human nowadays is so detached from the natural world that it isn't even funny. Most of us in industrialized countries don't even have any idea of how of food is grown and produced. I think humanity needs to get back in touch with nature, and live in harmony with nature once again because being detached from nature can lead to serious mental and psychological issues. Humans were originally designed to live in harmony with nature, and we've broken that harmony so badly with population overshoot, that isn't even funny.

Even if it was possible to grow the population to 15 billion, we shouldn't do it, because it would make us even more detached from nature, which will lead to our eventual downfall. Everything needs to live in balance with each other. There is no such thing as infinite growth in anything whether it is population or consumption. Nothing grows forever especially population.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 07 Feb 2015, 11:53:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')
I was fairly deeply involved for a while.


What do you think failed to bind you to this group?


Like all Judeau-Christians it seeks answers through mans action, intervention. It has an implicit bias to place man over nature. I think they would argue over that assertion, but from observation it is true.

Spiritually I have evolved to see us as a part of nature, so that we should work within it, not seek to command it.

Further, ther community I belonged to was mostly well educated professionals. Each saw the world through a relatively narrow lens. There was a lot of focus on humanities shortcomings and good deeds. Not bad in itself. But no real deep thought about what drives humanity, what our real motivations are.

It is possible to be a good, well meaning person and still do much harm because you are unaware of your surroundings.

I still attend on occasion, I'm not "bound" as you so aptly put it.

BTW...working on The Ape Within. Very good.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 07 Feb 2015, 12:00:51

Pops..re Boston gangster.....

Try reading about some Polynesian cultures reaction to death. Poke out you own eye, mash out your teeth with a coconut shell.

Mitchner describes it well in Hawaii. Some of the same circumstances. Small, inbred family group. Very high reliance upon one another for survival. Just guessing.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 07 Feb 2015, 12:05:42

Just a thought....

Suppose we did reach 15 billion....there would then be folks debating 30 billion.....and then 60 billion.

Starts to sound like 1%'ers. Why do we need so many more billions than other creatures? We are a greed lot.

I like Farley Mowats use of the word "OTHERS." As in all the other flora and fauna on Earth. We have no respect for the others. We have a pitiful AWARENESS of the others. That is not good.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 07 Feb 2015, 13:18:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')
Further, their community I belonged to was mostly well educated professionals. Each saw the world through a relatively narrow lens. There was a lot of focus on humanities shortcomings and good deeds. Not bad in itself. But no real deep thought about what drives humanity, what our real motivations are.



That is what I was assuming and this actually leads to a point I would like to explore in reference to these last couple of pages about a sense of the sacred toward our mother earth as a key component to modern civilization eventually reaching sustainability and how I see a fair chance of this happening. This will be my last long post on this for the moment as I try to wrap this up and not belabor the point.

The tremendous surplus of energy available to modern civilization during the past decades has allowed a specialization to develop among individuals in the consumption of material goods but also in their ability to specialize and entertain their pet interests. This has lead to a degree of relativity. Whether you are driving a Hummer down to the mall or fighting for your pet charity cause we have had the abundance in our society to specialize in an almost boundless way.

When a biosphere is healthy it is invisible. When there is material abundance the physical resource base is similarly unnoticed. Think of how people turn on or off the lights or water without even thinking about the source of this.

VTSnowedin made a good point that our knowledge of ecological limits is relatively recent, since the 70's, and in a way this makes sense since it was only when limits started to creep that the healthy biosphere, long invisible, started to take form in our minds.

So we have had this invisible external environment and such abundance that each individual has been allowed to pursue without constraints material abundance and of course also moral and ethical and in the field of humanities any cause that one would fancy. This is part of the cult of the individual whether it be driving a Hummer down the street, fixated on your Iphone or leading a pledge drive for breast cancer. It might seem weird at first that I can make the case that a philanthropic cause like fighting cancer is just another expression of individualism but it does represent the passion and interests of the individuals leading this and it also reflects the abundance of a society that has the luxury to go into ever more specialized endeavors, including humanitarian ones.

One of the reason climate change or biodiversity loss does not take center stage and gain priority is because in the eyes of society these are just another "cause" and competing in a specialized world of hundreds of other noble or not noble causes from fighting malaria to nascar racing.

And now to Pops point about any religion requiring a "hook" like the fear of hell or getting reincarnated as a tick on a dogs ass, there is a hook that I see emerging as constraints and the consequences of overshoot undermine our societies ability to continue unhindered in indulging in such a degree of specialization of interests.

In times of abundance climate change and species extinction has the same moral relevance in the eyes of society as any other of the hundreds of "causes" out there that we strive to resolve.

How do you all think this will change with the tightening of constraints, the diminishing of species, the consequences of climate change leading to crop failures etc etc?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')piritually I have evolved to see us as a part of nature, so that we should work within it, not seek to command it.


Newfie, you are on the leading edge. Maybe because I own a nature reserve in Panama some of you might think well obviously Ibon would say this, isn't he somewhat biased?

Actually, the long invisible biosphere and the long unnoticed abundance of resources are going to become dominant in our focus and in our specializations in the decades to come, and the moral equivalence that puts philanthropic causes competing with each other will experience a separation of the wheat from the chaff. The feedbacks from the consequences of overshoot are going to demand priority and focus toward resolving the constraints and this will draw together society in no uncertain terms.

That is also the "hook" that will develop with a sense of sacredness. We wont need to create an afterlife that threatens hell or coming back as a tick, the very feedback consequences in real time in our own sentient lives will serve this very well.

The emerging religiosity or spirituality may very well be less dogmatic in a religious sense and more like Ethical Humanism but the existential nature of the consequences of overshoot will draw folks toward a central focus. And the healing and preserving of our mother earth has the potential to create a common core belief system of worshiping our mother earth

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')TW...working on The Ape Within. Very good


Glad you like it ... Our Inner Ape is the title but yes it is about the ape within!
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 07 Feb 2015, 14:10:21

I post this interchange from this rather interesting movie whose quotes I include below.
It speaks to what Ibon states that Overshoot is a period whereby we will be on the precipice, so only at that moment can we really change. It most certainly makes sense to me.
The Day the Earth Stood Still (2008)
Professor Barnhardt: There must be alternatives. You must have some technology that could solve our problem.
Klaatu: Your problem is not technology. The problem is you. You lack the will to change.
Professor Barnhardt: Then help us change.
Klaatu: I cannot change your nature. You treat the world as you treat each other.
Professor Barnhardt: But every civilization reaches a crisis point eventually.
Klaatu: Most of them don't make it.
Professor Barnhardt: Yours did. How?
Klaatu: Our sun was dying. We had to evolve in order to survive.
Professor Barnhardt: So it was only when your world was threated with destruction that you became what you are now.
Klaatu: Yes.
Professor Barnhardt: Well that's where we are. You say we're on the brink of destruction and you're right. But it's only on the brink that people find the will to change. Only at the precipice do we evolve. This is our moment. Don't take it from us, we are close to an answer.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 07 Feb 2015, 23:31:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', '
')Professor Barnhardt: Well that's where we are. You say we're on the brink of destruction and you're right. But it's only on the brink that people find the will to change. Only at the precipice do we evolve. This is our moment. Don't take it from us, we are close to an answer.


Yep. That's about it....the knifes edge.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 08 Feb 2015, 22:47:23

At the rate we are depleting fossil fuels, I doubt we will even have 9 billion people--let alone 15 billion people. That's because once fossil fuels become too scarce, the population will crash to below 2 billion. Some say the population crash might be to a level that's even below 500 million. There is nothing that can stop this population crash, according to the following article.

http://www.unicamp.br/fea/ortega/eco/tr ... DieOff.pdf

Read this quote.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xactly what it sounds like. It is estimated the world’s population will contract to less than 500 million within the next 50-100 years as a result of oil depletion (current world population: 6.4 billion).


I fear for the worst of times ahead.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 09 Feb 2015, 18:46:46

Ibon,

I understand your argument about charities well enough. At this point I see them as part of the problem because we have enough real big issues, any energy diverted to second or third tier issues is energy wasted.

Some time ago I started a thread about the "5 Biggest Issues" humanity faces. The purpose was to focus folks not the relevant, to concentrate and clarify thought. It didn't go well. At least one poster thought it was a uniquely stupid way of regarding Earth. I'm far from convienced, but the interchange went poorly enough for me to be further discouraged. I mean, if we can't discuss that here, what hope is there in having a discussion with the broader population?

If Vox Mundi and his reporting on São Paulo is to be believed then it starts to look like we will never come to grips with the salient issues. It feels inevitable that we will cut the last tree.

Just for clarity, for me the 5 biggest issues are.
1. Overpopulation
2. Water depletion
3. Fragility of the global financial market
4. Resource depletion
5. Attacks on our natural world
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby Lore » Mon 09 Feb 2015, 19:02:57

Good list!

The problem being overpopulation, a taboo subject to be addressed by just about every society, will override any solution to the rest of the issues. I kind of always scratch my head in wonder on how environmentalists, for the most part, ignore the real cause of future problems and are out to fight only the symptoms.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Unread postby careinke » Mon 09 Feb 2015, 22:05:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I')bon,

Just for clarity, for me the 5 biggest issues are.
1. Overpopulation
2. Water depletion
3. Fragility of the global financial market
4. Resource depletion
5. Attacks on our natural world


Pretty good list Newfie, we agree on a few, are they in order from 1-5?

Here is my list (In order):

1. Soil loss
2. Water management
3. Overpopulation
4. Climate Change
5. Peak Oil

I would have liked to add; Debt, and advertising (reduces satisfaction and leads to overconsumption), and overconsumption.
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