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Can the world support 15 billion people?

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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Newfie » Mon 02 Feb 2015, 23:27:06

See, now THATS what we need, thinking outside the box!

Always a solution if you look hard enough.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby KaiserJeep » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 04:49:52

As for the reasoning that says that "cities are the most efficient concentrations of people, where one can care for the most people with the least energy", I give that a big raspberry.

City dwellers starve first. You have only to look at the behavior of the English populace during WW2 to understand that the city dwellers lose and starve, while those who produce and possess the food prosper and fatten. You don't get any fairer than the English, which means you need to live close to the food production to have food.

The cities are doomed. They die soon after food rationing begins.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Newfie » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 08:30:35

"Mini Me"
"The plane, the plane"

And their girlfriends!

In bikinis.

15 billion.

Now it's stck in my head! A visual ear worm.

8O
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Ibon » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 08:52:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')I gotta laugh because I worry about how to survive while most everyone else casually revels in the uselessness – nay, the deservedness, of die off.



Ignorance is bliss sometimes. If knowledge provides you awareness of checkmate what use is it?

In humans they say that self awareness didn't evolve but was a by product of our growing intelligence with increased brain size. Think about it. There was no real selective advantage of being aware of your mortality. We are the species that dies the least gracefully of all the creatures on the planet.

Sentient awareness of your mortality is a liability and we had to start creating religions and other crutches to handle it .

Well, this is exactly the same situation all of us find ourselves in who have knowledge of human overshoot. Applied to the collective whole of our species rather than the individual. As an individual we know we will die so we have had tens of thousands of years of cultural evolution to deal with this through our religions and philosophy etc.

Here in the 21st century we perhaps find ourselves in a very novel situation. There are members of our species, like those here at po.com, who are aware of the existential crisis of overshoot and the eventual die-off. But we lack any goal posts or cultural crutches to deal with this. We are unable to influence the vast sea of our fellow humans who willfully choose ignorance of our dilemma over awareness. And yet some of us are aware.

We know that the deeper we plow into overshoot the more brutal will be the consequences. And thus we live these double lives, one part of ourselves solving the problems of collective survival as another part of ourselves secretly wishes for the die-off to commence.

WE are in great need of a new religious paradigm to manage this deep deep contradiction between survival and welcoming the cleansing remedy of a die-off for the well being of both our species and our fellow flora and fauna.

Worshipping The Overshoot Predator is the Jesus of the 21st century.......the messiah has returned....

WE have prayed to invisible men in the sky for our own individual salvation. WE now need to add a savior for our species as well. And some new formulated prayers for the collective........

As 5 billion of us lay ourselves down to sleep
I pray the Overshoot Predator our souls to keep,
If 5 billion die before we are truly awake,
Bless us Overshoot Predator our souls to take
For those 2 billion who are spared his wrath
will continue down a sustainable path.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Lore » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 10:24:30

There is no rational to believe the 2 billion left in the future will be anymore sustainable then the several billion of the past, or for that matter a 100 million in the future beyond. Humans ruined their garden of Eden.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Pops » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 10:30:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'W')E are in great need of a new religious paradigm to manage this deep deep contradiction between survival and welcoming the cleansing remedy of a die-off for the well being of both our species and our fellow flora and fauna.

That would be a typical religion, those of us least likely to die pray for the death of the nonbelievers so that heaven will reign here on earth... for us.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby onlooker » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 11:07:04

Yes our Garden of Eden has been ruined, the specter of Global Warming now hangs over this Earth and all living things on it. Barring any miraculous techo fix, the planet now seems destined to continue to warm for thousands of years not so long in geological time frames but certainly long in human time frames. So let us not kid ourselves civilization as we know it will be over soon, what will replace it who knows but it will be more primitive and it will involve dealing with a planet not so hospitable to life as we have known it. Now as for the survivors living sustainably they will not be able to do otherwise as they will be lacking in the Earth changing technology, fossil fuels, as well as the numbers to affect nature. Long term hard to say but again the planet will undergo some nasty changes that will make things difficult for humans.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Ibon » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 16:44:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'T')here is no rational to believe the 2 billion left in the future will be anymore sustainable then the several billion of the past, or for that matter a 100 million in the future beyond. Humans ruined their garden of Eden.


If those 2 billion saw the cataclysmic death of the 5 billion there is at least the possibility that bearing witness to this could instill in the survivors taboos and commandments against over population and consumption. I agree it is no foregone conclusion but I actually believe that it does represent the only way for us to ever be sustainable. We need to be taken down to the very fundamentals of our belief system which is what would happen if survivors saw the raw die-off of the vast majority of humanity. Of course the new belief system that arises has probably an equally good chance of being as unsustainable as any in the past. But I propose there is a reasonable chance that consequences will mold the survivors. I admit I am biased toward looking for silver linings in the coming correction since I am biased toward seeing Kudzu Ape become human once again through the redemption of what the survivors will learn as a result of the consequences. This is my narrative... could be motivated reasoning to cope with the sheer magnitude of the suffering that will follow and my attempt to frame this in some positive light. Yes indeed, I believe that is true and I am cool with this narrative. If it reflects reality is not really known.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Ibon » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 17:05:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'W')E are in great need of a new religious paradigm to manage this deep deep contradiction between survival and welcoming the cleansing remedy of a die-off for the well being of both our species and our fellow flora and fauna.

That would be a typical religion, those of us least likely to die pray for the death of the nonbelievers so that heaven will reign here on earth... for us.


I could imagine that and if in their bigoted hubris they saw themselves as the chosen ones for having instilled taboos and commandments toward sustainability then this might prove adaptive enough for this new religion to outlast the current 2000 year old monotheist religions that are highly irrational belief systems but have persevered in spite of being so.

Science and secular society has not been very good when it comes to existential questions. And the consequences of overshoot will be dominated by existential threats and consequences. That is why I am firmly believing that we are heading for a new religiosity once constraints become painful and dire. Of course I would like to imagine that we would move through overshoot and the die-off remaining secular and rational but I just don't see it.

Can a secular society survive overshoot? Could humanity move through the consequences of overshoot and the resultant die-off and keep a secular society intact? I doubt it. I cannot help but believe that the consequences will be severe enough that survivors will only be able to put this within a new religious context. But that is an interesting question..... isn't it?
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby onlooker » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 18:03:27

I cannot help but think that we have reached a point in our collective history where we are so tired and sick of our dismal history involving conflict-competition and pillaging and greed and that combined with our existential crisis that we are now arriving at will lead what remains of humanity into the future with a completely different mindset than most people throughout history. The essence of humans going forward will be in their pursuit of an ethos involving harmony with each other and with nature and unity with each other and nature for it will be recognized universally as the only way to proceed forward. Now if that can be deemed a religion then that surely is worthy of replacing any that has existed before.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Newfie » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 18:34:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'T')here is no rational to believe the 2 billion left in the future will be anymore sustainable then the several billion of the past, or for that matter a 100 million in the future beyond. Humans ruined their garden of Eden.


I agree, unless we can change we would just do the same thing over again.

Ibon thinks he sees an agent for change. I'm skeptical.

But its all just talk, none of us will ever know.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby KaiserJeep » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 19:35:25

War, Famine, Pestilence, and Death were afoot during the Dark Ages. Of those cannibal days, we remember only "fairy tales". The nature of mankind is not changed by any amount of hardship - tough times only serve to reinforce instinctive behaviors. This means that after the die-off, if any humans remain, we will repeat the same destructive behaviors, and trash the partially recovered world again.

The world is only humanity's creche. We are destined to inhabit free space when our childhood ends. The Earth's destiny is to end up as an evil smelling and mostly sterile trash heap, littered with human bones.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Ibon » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 19:56:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'I') cannot help but think that we have reached a point in our collective history where we are so tired and sick of our dismal history involving conflict-competition and pillaging and greed and that combined with our existential crisis that we are now arriving at will lead what remains of humanity into the future with a completely different mindset than most people throughout history. The essence of humans going forward will be in their pursuit of an ethos involving harmony with each other and with nature and unity with each other and nature for it will be recognized universally as the only way to proceed forward.


Two things about your post. It takes courage to recognize that your prognosis is influenced by your own utopian bias in wanting to see humans arrive at some redemption after the consequences we will suffer. I share this but we both have to recognize that this prognosis is biased by our own hope regarding this redemption. Bias aside there is something objective in this prognosis as well. It is not illogical for humans to experience spiritual and cultural values toward our mother earth as a result of the consequences we will suffer. Putting my "utopian bias" aside this does seem logical to me.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow if that can be deemed a religion then that surely is worthy of replacing any that has existed before.


Current religions are irrelevant if for no other reason that their mission to be a beacon of spiritual knowledge and well being for humanity has proven to be a total failure in not anticipating and guiding humans around overshoot and the damage we have done to our biosphere. It is inconsistent to advocate for the sanctity of life while not condemning the destruction of life by our very lifestyles. Like our current economic systems and forms of government current religions are destined to be abandoned or experience major metamorphosis due to this failure.

To assume that our spiritual values will remain unmoved by the existential consequences we will suffer is totally illogical.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Lore » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 20:10:36

There will be no partial recovery of our environment with a decreased world population. We have already set in motion many thousands of years of change that will remove most life on the planet from the cradle in which it was raised.

And for most of mankind the only free space it will see within the next thousand years will be that of the infinite void beyond life.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Pops » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 20:12:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'T')o assume that our spiritual values will remain unmoved by the existential consequences we will suffer is totally illogical.

But religion is not only inherently illogical but that is one of it's biggest virtues.

What does a christian say when told we're all gonna die due to (insert eco-bomb here]?
He says, "not me, I have eternal life in Jeasus." or some such. He then blows you off completely and everything you said, no matter how logical. It's like talking to Plant.

The strength of the afterlife as a selling point is big, it negates all current plight and all current guilt - as long as you are right with the lord. 72 virgins dancing the macharena on streets of gold has an appeal.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Lore » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 20:19:36

Religion is the sentient beings crutch. Of all living species, humans die the least gracefully.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Pops » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 20:28:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', ' ')Science and secular society has not been very good when it comes to existential questions.

We have done things, the '70s were a great time for doing big things. Even though Nixon passed many of the enviro bills out of political expediency things did happen. There of course has been a huge backlash from folks who profit from offloading cost onto society, such as that for pollution, and that side of the debate is firmer and more entrenched than ever. There is just no way that Ted Cruz is gonna sign some trehugger bill if he were POTUS

Two things about the '70s, the changes only indirectly affected voters day to day budgets and the problems were manifest - smog back in the day was bad but passing a law to reduce emission didn't enact an obvious cost the next day. Acid rain was bad, rivers caught fire due to the crap dumped there, clear cuts were right at the verge of the highway.

I'm not sure I see those same things happening now aside from the clique at PO I rarely hear about CC except from the weatherman here and there. Of course there were huge societal upheavals around women and blacks and the war already going on in the '60-'70s and the environmentalist "agenda" fit in perfectly with the meme of The oppressive Man. Sorry to be blunt but I don't see gay rights blossoming into another Earth Day movement and the Occupy people didn't really study their history when the decided an anarchist non-hierarchy could get things done. LOL

More than anything, money talks now. Partly due to an organized lobby for the profiters that is there to use their minute of equal time to the fullest to cast doubt and partly because, to be blunt, the Rachel Carsons of today are out making a buck and paying a sitter. No I'm not laying it off on working women either so don't get yer G-string in a knot, I'm laying it on the "2-Income Trap."


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat is why I am firmly believing that we are heading for a new religiosity once constraints become painful and dire. Of course I would like to imagine that we would move through overshoot and the die-off remaining secular and rational but I just don't see it.


Just some stuff on religion
http://www.humanreligions.info/causes.html#NRMs
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Can the world support 15 billion people?

Postby Lore » Tue 03 Feb 2015, 20:40:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')If those 2 billion saw the cataclysmic death of the 5 billion there is at least the possibility that bearing witness to this could instill in the survivors taboos and commandments against over population and consumption.


I believe you're up against genetics here. Our DNA is not hard wired to act much different then we do right now. Humans seem to resist selective breeding so this won't be factored out. I suspect that the new boss will be the same as the old boss.
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