by Pops » Tue 06 Jan 2015, 15:35:09
Really, there is no rational reason for it to be any price as shown by the long run of high price and the large drop lately. If there were, there would be no futures markets. If there were an equation that showed what the price should be, rather than simply "what the market will bear" a whole bunch of gamblers money managers, futures traders, hedgers and even producers would be out of work.
All prices, current and forward, take the present and the future into consideration. Even current spot prices not only reflect the actual conditions right now, they too are an attempt to gauge the market tomorrow.
So there is a lot of gambling that goes on even with spot prices. I bet we'll start to see storage filling up as deep pockets buy and hold hoping fopr a better price tomorrow.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)