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Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby PrestonSturges » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 02:50:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('prajeshbhat', 'H')ere's something I don't get about libertarian rugged individuals. If they are so rugged, why do they care what the government does.

I've been reading old school libertarian stuff and there has never been anything to it. It's just a way of grubbing money from rich sponsors by pitching crackpot schemes to do away with the income tax. This has not changed in 80 years.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Sixstrings » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 04:08:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('prajeshbhat', 'H')ere's something I don't get about libertarian rugged individuals. If they are so rugged, why do they care what the government does.

I've been reading old school libertarian stuff and there has never been anything to it. It's just a way of grubbing money from rich sponsors by pitching crackpot schemes to do away with the income tax. This has not changed in 80 years.


When I was like 18 I was a Liberterian. I even went to Party meetings. I was even obsessed about the national debt (was nothing compared to what it is now).

The reason I quit the party..

We had a public Q&A thing and an old lady asked the local chairman what Liberterians would do about Social Security. His answer: "abolish it." It was such an awkward moment. Even though I was young I knew that was crazy talk. You don't just toss grandma into the gutter and smile while you're doing it.

The party meetings were cool though.. interesting mix of people. I remember this one hippie dude, really scraggly, he was the secretary and carried a full size Constitution around with him all the time. Liberterians are interesting, diverse in an odd way. Hippies and suits, united in wanting freedom to smoke their dope or evade taxes.

Philosophically they do have some interesting points and it gets complicated, but in practice you're right Preston these ideas aren't applicable to a 21st century developed nation. Liberterianism is just unnecessarily cruel, it's not necessary in the world's richest nation, and it can't even work because of globalism (the rich just invest their money offshore).
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 04:16:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')Philosophically they do have some interesting points and it gets complicated, but in practice you're right Preston these ideas aren't applicable to a 21st century developed nation. Liberterianism is just unnecessarily cruel, it's not necessary in the world's richest nation, and it can't even work because of globalism (the rich just invest their money offshore).

First 21st century developed nation will get duly bankrupt and fall down to standards of off the mill Third World nation.
Then (and only then) libertarian ideas will become to be applicable, in fact they will be a must to embrace.
The only alternative would be to embrace even sounder feudal ideas...

And children/grandchildren (rather than government) will have to take care about granny.
Don't have any?
Tough luck...

And don't worry about globalism, its days are counted...
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby prajeshbhat » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 04:36:22

I do believe that most of the social progress and environmental improvements in the west has happened due to the efforts of the progressives and liberals. You gotta give them credit for that. Of course now that the american system is collapsing(and the Democrats are in power) , the conservatives are having their hay-day. Now is the time to blame the failure of the system on liberals (and feminists, gays, minorities and what not), it may be the only chance they will get. Every thing these people have fought for to make your society a more decent place to live in can now be derided and blamed to be responsible for the current situation. Lets just go back to the way things were in the 19th century.
It shouldn't be any surprise either. When communism collapsed in 1990, there were a lot of cry-babies who were running around in Russia saying that the system collapsed because we did not have PURE communism, that there were a lot of rich billionaire businessmen running things in Kremlin. Now, I see the same kind of jokers are running around in USA saying they don't have PURE CAPITALISM, that there are a lot of billionaire businessmen running things in Washington.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby PrestonSturges » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 09:53:24

Libertarians have been pitching that idea about the collapse of society and currency for 80 years also. Nothing has changed.

If the world ends, OK they can have a shot. In the mean time what we are seeing is that putting them in charge of anything is like putting an arsonist in charge of a match factory - there is just to much temptation for them to burn it all down.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Pops » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 10:36:18

I heard a talking head mention that districts are so well jiggered only about 90 seats of the houses 435 are even competitive between parties, makes the polarization make sense:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') crisis of governance -- born of decades of gerrymandering, polarization and exploding deficits -- could persist in the short term and may last for a decade, said James Thurber of American University's Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies.

"We're in deep trouble. We are going to have continued gridlock. It's an era of deadlocked government during a period when the economy is not doing well and we are not doing well internationally," Thurber said.


So isn't the only solution to gerrymandered gridlock de-gerrymandering?
Wouldn't that force politicians to be more responsive to all the people instead of just the 20% radical base?

If the US is more or less 50/50 red/blue but your district is 80% one party, you must satisfy the hard core base of that party to be elected. Consequently, all the reps together are representing the extremes and no one is rep-ing for the majority in the center.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/ ... 3U20110728
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby AgentR11 » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 11:04:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')o isn't the only solution to gerrymandered gridlock de-gerrymandering?
Wouldn't that force politicians to be more responsive to all the people instead of just the 20% radical base?


There is a huge host of problems in trying to make that happen. A math one, for instance, do urban areas stay intact? If so, you've automatically created some safe democrat seats, as well as tipping your average of the rest to 60/40 RvsD. Do rural areas stay intact? If so, opposite is true. If you take both options, you are already approaching 50% safe seats.

Add another, probably not a big deal where you are, but many states have large requirements for majority-minority districts; as one party seems to pander to those minority communities, this creates yet another source of safe seats (overlaps some with urban above), in an imbalanced way.

Another answer, would be a parliamentary allocation style, party X wins 5% of the US votes, they get 20ish seats in the House; this creates a problem in that region specific issues can end up being ignored; not a big deal in Germany or France, potentially a huge problem if you are a member of Party X, and the nearest X representative carrying the mandate of your vote has his nearest office 1500 miles away.

You could pull that allocation style down to states, but the granularity will get nasty for many of the smaller states.

In the end though, current system of safe seats benefits the D's and the R's, since it insures that one of the two will win; and as long as one of those two are winning, the Nobility is content with the result. Thus, there will be no change.

edit: stupid typo
Last edited by AgentR11 on Sun 31 Jul 2011, 11:06:56, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby prajeshbhat » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 11:05:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ouldn't that force politicians to be more responsive to all the people instead of just the 20% radical base?


Nopes. As Jon Stewart said, there is a reason for that. The remaining 80% has got sh** to do.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Pops » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 11:37:46

Yeah, I've wondered about this before, how could it be more fair and balanced? Whoever has the power now (census year +1) gets to do the gerry-rigging. That's good for the pubs this time around but not really my point.

I've always thought it should have something to do with existing government entities -counties, cities, etc simply for consistency but that's pretty simplistic.

Since reps are selected by population maybe population density could be a factor, higher density areas have different concerns than low... Country dems like guns and city dems don't maybe.


Divided gov is a good thing, but right now we've got it rigged to serve the parties instead of the people. The topic at hand is of course a perfect example - the majority of the citizens want a deal:

Image
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 12:18:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Divided gov is a good thing, but right now we've got it rigged to serve the parties instead of the people. The topic at hand is of course a perfect example - the majority of the citizens want a deal:

Image

Hence within few years at most there will be a final crash by default.
Nature will not ask American public what they like and what they don't...

Final years to complete your preps...
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby gollum » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 12:47:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Divided gov is a good thing, but right now we've got it rigged to serve the parties instead of the people. The topic at hand is of course a perfect example - the majority of the citizens want a deal:

Image

Hence within few years at most there will be a final crash by default.
Nature will not ask American public what they like and what they don't...

Final years to complete your preps...



I agree, the present mess is absolute proof that neither party has the steel to stand up to their respective masters and do what's best for the country. Not to even mention they have no concept of the possibility of peak oil or empire decline.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Pops » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 12:54:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '<')/div>
Hence within few years at most there will be a final crash by default.
Nature will not ask American public what they like and what they don't...

Final years to complete your preps...

Could be.

I think my vision of a few months ago re: Peak Economy, might have been a good one for once, I said the price of oil wouldn't ever hit US$150 again, that the economy couldn't take it, the next high price would be $120 then recession - then maybe $100 and recession, etc.

But there won't be a "final crash" - too much linear thinking there EU. Something will always come after teotwawki, unless of course the final crash involves lots of nukes.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Pops » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 13:11:48

Just noticed they are holding a "test vote" at 1: EST and say they are optimistic.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/art ... af2908c26e
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Pops » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 13:18:21

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Pops » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 14:17:41

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby AgentR11 » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 14:30:33

That whole image chart is explained by the collapse in the housing market. In places where there was no significant bubble on prices, the picture is lightly colored; in locations where values spiked, its dark blue.

Bob buys 200k house, on a 180k, 30yr mortgage.
A couple years alter, after paying in a little, the house is valued at 300k with no physical improvements.
Bob takes 50k in home equity, buys a new kitchen counter, and goes on vacation..
A while passes...
Bob's house value collapses to 175k, his mortgage is 160k, his heloc is is 45k, and poof... underwater.

This has happened extensively in every one of those dark colored states.

And yes, tuition has gotten much pricier as families are directly paying a higher percentage of the cost, as states pull funding. The only problem I see with this, is that we're still selling the underclass on the notion that a college degree is a ticket out of poverty, instead of a ticket into enslavement if they lack the contacts, exceptional skills, and/or personal wealth to back it up.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Plantagenet » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 14:32:02

The tea party demanded:
--Spending cuts bigger than any debt rise
--two part process with more cuts later
--triggers to result in cuts to entitlements
--no new taxes.
--vote on a constitutional amendment to balance the budget

Looks like Obama and the dems caved in first again and the tea party won, because thats more or less whats in the debt ceiling bill

It was clear weeks ago that Obama would cave in and lose. When he blustered "don't call my bluff" it was a clear sign Obama was bluffing and would cave.

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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 16:19:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he tea party demanded:
--Spending cuts bigger than any debt rise
--two part process with more cuts later
--triggers to result in cuts to entitlements
--no new taxes.
--vote on a constitutional amendment to balance the budget

Looks like Obama and the dems caved in first again and the tea party won, because thats more or less whats in the debt ceiling bill

Is that deal already made or they are still debating it?

If made then there is still some hope for America.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Cog » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 16:45:08

Cuts promised over a 10 year period are pure fantasy. If this is the plan I'm thinking of there is only $8 billion in cuts for fiscal year 2012!!! A serious budget plan would have at least $200 billion in cuts the first year instead of back-loading them 10 years from now. The whole thing is a bad joke on the American people.

Two years from now we will have added another $2.5 trillion in debt to the pile of debt we already have and we will be the worse for it.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Daniel_Plainview » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 17:54:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'C')uts promised over a 10 year period are pure fantasy. If this is the plan I'm thinking of there is only $8 billion in cuts for fiscal year 2012!!! A serious budget plan would have at least $200 billion in cuts the first year instead of back-loading them 10 years from now. The whole thing is a bad joke on the American people.

Two years from now we will have added another $2.5 trillion in debt to the pile of debt we already have and we will be the worse for it.


I agree absolutely. Any cuts beyond the next 1 to 2 years are pure fiction. And certainly any cuts which are slated for the next administration are complete fantasy.

The simple fact is that THE FEDERAL GOVT IS COMPLETELY OUT OF CONTROL ... and there's nothing the "people" can do about it (absent revolution). The problems are so systemic and deep-seated that the only solution is utter collapse, followed by a "reset."

If you don't believe me, just wait until we accumulate another $3 Trillion in debt (in about 18 months), and this same game is repeated, only with more urgency and desperation.

The FEDERAL GOVT is the problem ... like a self-replicating bacterium/virus invading an innocent host, the FEDERAL GOVT will continue to usurp individual rights & private enterprise until the innocent host dies ...
Image
All checks on the unbridled expansion of the FED'L GOVT have effectively been eliminated by the US Supreme Court ... and if the Founding Fathers were alive today, they would be demanding a Constitutional Convention ...
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