[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'Y')eah, after the average American pays $25G's for that average new car, he/she then can't afford to cough up $100/month for the fuel to drive it 1000 miles a month

[AirlinePilot]

I'm sorry but was there ever any conclusion to the thread title statement? Has anyone else around here seen any evidence of a supposed "movement"? Surely I could not have missed it after all these years?

I'm trying to figure out the purpose of such a thread on a peak oil discussion group, other than the obvious pot stirring and trolling of one of our more narcissistic posters.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'T')he author of this article, Mike Bendzela, posted for a long time here at peakoil.com as a hardcore doomer named "killJOY".
member/killJOY/

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I')'m sorry but was there ever any conclusion to the thread title statement? Has anyone else around here seen any evidence of a supposed "movement"? Surely I could not have missed it after all these years?

[vtsnowedin]

I know this is off the original topic and no amount of information will sway your mind Xenophobe but consider this:
From the paper you quoted on PV cost.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or example, the typical annual output of a flat-mounted 1 kW system in San Diego,
California, is about 1,310 kilowatt hours (kWh), while the same system in Seattle,
Washington, would produce about 850 kWh.1 As a result, the LCOE of the Seattle system is about 1.5 times greater than the San Diego System, ignoring any differences in
financing and incentives.

[Revi]

We just plug our car into the grid and Central Maine Power's hydro dam does the renewable energy. We end up paying about 2 cents a mile for the fuel cost of driving our little Gem car around town. We only drive it in the 35 mph zone of town, but it is far cheaper to drive than a full sized car. I think that will be the kind of car that the average person will be driving once we drop off the plateau around 2014. As gas prices rise people will figure out other ways around the transportation problem. There will be a lot more scooters, bicycles and walkers.

As I said before, car culture is dying. Maybe it isn't dead yet, but the days of every American driving around in a full sized car are numbered.

[vtsnowedin]

Ayup old hydro power is a lot cheaper then new photovoltaic panel power but as you have seen in Maine they are into taking out old hydro-dams not building new ones. The 150,000 or so plug ins they will sell this year won't make a noticeable difference but eventually you will get to the point where they want to turn off Grandmas TV so that junior can charge his car. Then you have to decide what your going to build to provide the needed new electricity. A new hydro dam of any size anywhere in the US is highly unlikely when you consider all the enviropolitics involved. New nuclear plants to even replace the old ones we have seem a long shot as the Clam shell alliance is still in full cry. State of the art coal is possible but CO2 capture and sequestration may use as much as 30 percent of the energy produced by the raw coal so cheap it will not be. At least nowhere near as cheap as what we are paying now. As you can see from the example above PV roof panels are a loser but solar to steam in the dessert might pay off. And switching to more natural gas will just use up that resource more rapidly.That leaves wind and tide each with it's limits and promises. I don't see why anyone would see the problem as solved.
Another thing that chaps my keister is these tax rebates. They are borrowing the money to grant them so you and I will get to pay them all back plus interest in future taxes or benefit cuts. So You and I are subsidising every fool that buys a Volt this year even though I can see that it isn't helping with the problem but in fact making it worse. All so a guy with taxable income over 60k can pay no taxes and drive around in a 40K status symbol and feel superior to the knuckle draggers(in his opinion) around him that the government has forced into paying his bills. Why we might as well pay farmers to use a hundred gallons of diesel fuel to grow enough corn to make ninety five gallons of ethanol to mix with gas so it can destroy the engines in our chainsaws lawn mowers and motor boats.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')You and I are subsidising every fool that buys a Volt

[thuja]

John Denver? When was the last time you posted...you're my favorite cornie!!!

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')
You are aware of how we subsidize gasoline in this country. Do you support that? I bet if you add up all the money that has ever been spent to subsidize gas that we could just buy every household a Volt.

[Carlhole]

It's not that proponents of peak oil catastrophism have fumbled the delivery of the message; the message has been everywhere for the past several years! PO concepts are easy to understand and higher oil prices have naturally made people curious about them. The broader public know something about PO ideas. But generally, they don't put much stock oil supply doom.

I just read Stephen Gorelick's 2010 book "Oil Panic and the Global Collapse: Predictions & Myths". The author, a Stanford University Professor of Earth Science, places the familiar Hubbertian peak oil argument side-by-side the anti-PO argument (I call it anti-PO because it's not exactly cornie). Conclusions are left for the reader.

The first section, which covers everything Hubbert, leaves the reader wondering, "Gosh, how is Pauline going to get out of THIS jam?" But there actually IS a very good counter-argument. This counter-argument is the REAL reason why the PO message has failed to catch-on - it is MORE convincing than the doomer argument!

You can torrent this book for free. Just google around for it. I found a copy here

It's only 256 pages. You already pretty much know the first half of it. Download and enjoy!

[thuja]

Can you summarize Gorelick's argument for us Carlhole?

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'C')an you summarize Gorelick's argument for us Carlhole?

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'Y')eah, after the average American pays $25G's for that average new car, he/she then can't afford to cough up $100/month for the fuel to drive it 1000 miles a month

[thuja]

I myself am baffled by Xeno's internal battle...

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')Now compare to a $17,000 Toyota Corolla getting 34 mpg hwy. 30 combined. Gas would have to be over $6.62 a gallon average over the life of the car before the Volt has a chance to break even with it.
If you want to get started on your PV panel installation I,ll give you the Email address where you can order those 180 watt panels.

[TheDude]

Deutsch Bank pointed out in a study last month that global petroleum demand growth for 2010 was the strongest in 30 years. They conclude that spare capacity will very likely be eroded in a few years. Their forecast for the decade is a plateau tempered by demand, with a very gradual decline starting mid-decade.

[Revi]

I think it's important to get off the fossil fuel teat. I commend your action Xeno. The cheapest choice is not the best in this instance. We spent some money and learned a lot about electric transportation. The best part is that we have had a great time doing it.

I saw that report by Deutsche Bank. I also saw the one by Gregor.us and he thinks we're going to fall off the plateau in 2014 pretty steeply. Like 5% per year from then on in. That's really not too far away. It may be time to do something.

[bratticus]

Has anyone told Janaia that the movement's failed?

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')You and I are subsidising every fool that buys a Volt