[Doly]

Good summary, Wildwell!

I agree with all your points (maybe in the finer details we may disagree, but you sound essentially reasonable).

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', ' ')5. I do not agree with some people’s *application* of the 2nd law of thermodynamics. For example, the scientists at the following website also agree: http://www.foresight.org/EOC/EOC_Chapter_10.html

[Permanently_Baffled]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Agreed... and it will be quiet... because most people will be dead.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Permanently_Baffled', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Agreed... and it will be quiet... because most people will be dead.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')verall the direct use in oil and gas in agriculture is very low.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')aron, a couple of questions:
1) What are the two formulas for entropy, the classic one and the information theory one? I'm not asking here for popular science definitions, I'm asking for formulas.
2) Which of the following processes increase entropy? Which decrease entropy?
a) Burning gasoline
b) Burning hydrogen
c) Freezing water
d) The formation of acid rain by combination of water and sulfur oxides

If you can answer correctly these questions, then we can discuss entropy. Otherwise, do your homework before talking about it.

[johnmarkos]

There's a name for the common ground between optimism and pessimism -- it's called resilience. There's an interesting Harvard Business Review publication on resilience, the first 15 pages of which are available in PDF form here.

Who doesn't agree that resilience is a good attitude to cultivate? Anyone . . . anyone? All right. Now, can't we all just get along?

[DamianB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'E')xcept that you seem to believe in what I would call a "long shot" - that significant numbers of people will voluntarily change their behavior to avert a die off. I'd be interested to know when you think this change will begin, and how long it will take. Maybe you could go into this in another thread.

I think it's funny that you apparently think I'm a pessimist...

[FatherOfTwo]

Good thread Ludi.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'I') would like to see a “Star Trek” future. Is that optimism?

[Liamj]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', 'G')ood thread Ludi.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'I') would like to see a “Star Trek” future. Is that optimism?

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', 'T')he argument that we should bet what little we have left on a gamble to avoid some possible future calamity is madness

[Ludi]

So screw the people back on Earth, we're escaping to the stars!

Yeah huh.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', ' ')the odds are doable.

[JohnDenver]

Ludi, read what I wrote carefully. I'm not talking about a tin can full of rich people making a getaway to another planet. I'm talking about a slow incremental process of our entire civilization harvesting space energy and growing beyond the planet. Plentiful clean energy will improve life on earth, not make it worse.

[Ludi]

Read the article.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'S')o screw the people back on Earth, we're escaping to the stars!

[Ludi]

Read the article.

I'm not anti-space. I think space is cool. However, I can't go into space, and neither can you. I can, today, decide to live a sustainable life, and go do it. Today. I can not, nor can any person on the entire planet, go into space today. Or tomorrow. Or anytime soon.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'R')ead the article.

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Liamj', '
')Humanity spreading thru space is a fantasy borne of too much cheap energy being splurged of superfancy punch & judy shows (star trek etc).

The idea that we'll have energy & resources to spare for jaunts into the void stands in direct contrast to all the work of Hubbert, Youngquist et al.
You think this sustainability gig is going to be that easy?!

Until we can run our planet/land sustainably we wont be able to run 1 biospheric vessel.
Until we can run 1 biospheric vessel, any space program would be an ever larger drain on earths resources.
The 'space race' was just another porkbarrel for corporate parasites, with some useful spinoffs that could have been delivered by science anyway at a much reduced cost. Nothing comes from nothing, and even just launching 10s/100mil tons of material into high orbit would be a collosal cost.

The argument that we should bet what little we have left on a gamble to avoid some possible future calamity is madness, akin to using your roof timbers to board up the windows against burglars. I'm amazed it holds credence for anyone familiar with resource depletion.
Live there? Baby, if you could go for free i'd come see you's off.

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ' ')However, I can't go into space, and neither can you. I can, today, decide to live a sustainable life, and go do it. Today. I can not, nor can any person on the entire planet, go into space today. Or tomorrow. Or anytime soon.

[FatherOfTwo]

Back to the "groundless optimism" theme of this thread, my brother-in-law forwarded me an interesting website. Pessimists and optimists alike would do well to read it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Josh: Have you then taught yourself to be an optimist?
Martin: I think only a pessimist can write and do serious stuff about optimism. The skills I talk about I use every day. What I’ve become is what I call a "flexible optimist." I can recognize the situations which call for optimism, and the situations which don’t call for optimism need a mercilessly realistic view of what’s going to happen. When I make that separation, if it’s one of the many situations in which the optimism skills are going to pay off, then I throw in my whole complement of optimism skills. It makes me better able to initiate different projects. But when I’m in a situation in which the cost of failure is very high, then what I want is merciless realism. In that case I revert to my usual "four in the morning" pessimism.
Josh: How do you know whether this is a case for optimism or a time for pessimism?
Martin: I ask, "What would it matter if I fail here?" For example, if I’m a salesman and I’m making another "cold call," or if I see someone attractive at a party and want to say hello afterwards, the cost of rejection is small.
When the cost is small, use the optimism skills. On the other hand, the cost of failure can be very large, such as getting into an affair which will lead to divorce if your spouse finds out, or, as a pilot, having another drink at a party before a flight. You really don’t want optimistic pilots. When the cost of failure is large and catastrophic, you don’t want to use optimism skills. That’s the basic rule of thumb.