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What's wrong with groundless optimism?

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 01 May 2005, 15:07:09

Civilization was a strategy attempted by the minimum of human cultures (most cultures have been hunter-gatherers), and all civilizations have collapsed. Thus it is not an evolutionarily stable strategy. As swell as all this nice stuff is, it isn't evolutionarily stable, thus doomed.

Art and music arose in hunter-gatherer cultures, they are not limited to civilization.

(I'm not answering for MQ, I'm just horning in here...)
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Unread postby Wildwell » Sun 01 May 2005, 15:11:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'C')ivilization was a strategy attempted by the minimum of human cultures (most cultures have been hunter-gatherers), and all civilizations have collapsed. Thus it is not an evolutionarily stable strategy. As swell as all this nice stuff is, it isn't evolutionarily stable, thus doomed.


Well therefore there is no safe strategy. Many tribes died out because they burnt up local supplies, hunted animals to extinction or the crops failed. So you're anti civilisation? What right have you using piped water, flushing the toilet, having a job, using the internet or money, or are you a hypocrite? If it’s so bad why do you take part?

May I suggest that the hunter gatherer civilisations that remain (and that's questionable) lack resources and education and many live in a constant state of war or starvation. Some art and music is pre-civilisation, but is very, very limited. Certainly not to anything other than blowing throw bamboo or finger painting from local resources.
Last edited by Wildwell on Sun 01 May 2005, 15:17:45, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby Ludi » Sun 01 May 2005, 15:17:41

I'm a hypocrite.

I'm a hypocrite because I'm not willing to die really soon, so I'm gradually transitioning away from civilization while encouraging other people to do so as well. I know that, as people who have grown up in civilization, we don't have the knowledge and skills to suddenly jump into an evolutionarily stable way of life, though I believe such a life beyond civilization, taking much of the knowledge we have gained from civilization about the biosphere and ecosystems, so we can avoid some of the behaviors that the hunter-gatherers engaged in which damaged their ecosystems, and build a sustainable culture using the best of the tribal strategy and civilization strategy. But it won't be civilization, nor will it be "living in a cave."

So yes, today I'm a hypocrite and may be a hypocrite my entire life, seeing as I'm getting older, but I may be able to give those who come after me a viable way of life, and a future.
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Unread postby Wildwell » Sun 01 May 2005, 15:24:22

Well good luck Ludi, I hope you don't get cold, hungry or ill or anyone near to you.

I do of course believe we should be using renewable energy, sustainable methods of transport, agriculture and industry with a more advanced money system. But going back to live in wood fuelled tribal villages, no.
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Unread postby Ludi » Sun 01 May 2005, 15:30:07

I think you probably don't even know what I'm talking about Wildwell. Maybe I'll start a thread about living beyond civilization sometime.

I think a life could be built using the best of civilization and tribalism, and so do a lot of other people. But some people are just so in love with civilization, they want to save it at all costs, even though that's not possible in the long run. (see many MonteQuest threads about why it isn't possible)
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Unread postby Wildwell » Sun 01 May 2005, 15:43:45

Well maybe, but you're going to need transport, therefore machines. Not all your resources will be local, in fact very few. You will need transport and communications to support a time, money, education, policing and medical system. You'll also need a certain amount of industry, unless everyone is trained to do everything. It will have to be a dictatorship or feudal system as well, to make sure no one has any bright ideas and carries them out. Therefore you'll need heavy control of the media, crime and may have to resort to unpleasant methods.

I think some people have romantic notions and see nothing wrong with liking the form of paintings or the sound of music, but see it quite wrong to ease human workload or misery or the liking of the form of machines or interest in the things they do – all things humans create.

I also think MQ has his own agenda.
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Unread postby vegasmade » Sun 01 May 2005, 16:03:12

[Well therefore there is no safe strategy. Many tribes died out because they burnt up local supplies, hunted animals to extinction or the crops failed. So you're anti civilisation? What right have you using piped water, flushing the toilet, having a job, using the internet or money, or are you a hypocrite? If it’s so bad why do you take part?

May I suggest that the hunter gatherer civilisations that remain (and that's questionable) lack resources and education and many live in a constant state of war or starvation. Some art and music is pre-civilisation, but is very, very limited. Certainly not to anything other than blowing throw bamboo or finger painting from local resources.[/quote]

History might differ with your opinion. Native Americans were in no threat of starving from resource depletion. Some tribes, maybe. But this is hardly a reasonable generalization. Most tribes excercised an ideal form of civilization. They had a hiearchy which maintained control, allotted appropriate functions to appropriate members, and exercised interdependency. Cultures were able to form and survive in some of the most inhospitable places in this country. The anasazi of the SW are a great example. They even practiced engineering in the building of their pueblos. They excercised a balance between nature and man that has been ignored and forgotten. The Hawaiin culture, due to favorable conditions, invented recreation as we think of it. They had lived in harmony on an island of finite space and weren't starving to death when whitey showed up. As far as current tribal societies, any trouble they have is directly related to our 'advanced' societies' encroachment. Our so called education wouldn't keep us alive in the amazon two weeks. Yet there still are tribes surviving in that rainforest, despite our desecration of their natural enviorment. The tribal future (which I personally subscribe to) is distorted by preconcieved images of loin cloths and war chants. In actuallity, it's the harmony with nature that is most significant. They lived renewable lives, free of greed and waste. Their semi-nomadic lifestyle prevented rapid population expansion much like animals in the wild today.
Sorry to chime in again, you two are heading in a great direction with this.
And I'm sorry for not staying completely on topic. Though the ego idea seems right on.
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Unread postby Wildwell » Sun 01 May 2005, 16:15:27

Well for those that quite fancy the idea, you may now depart and find your new life, no one is stopping you. No time like the present, get your things together. The rest of us will carry on in our chosen way of life, I don't expect to see any more posts from you people unless you mean to expand your ego. Good luck! Nice knowing you.
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Unread postby vegasmade » Sun 01 May 2005, 16:24:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', 'W')ell maybe, but you're going to need transport, therefore machines. Not all your resources will be local, in fact very few. You will need transport and communications to support a time, money, education, policing and medical system. You'll also need a certain amount of industry, unless everyone is trained to do everything. It will have to be a dictatorship or feudal system as well, to make sure no one has any bright ideas and carries them out. Therefore you'll need heavy control of the media, crime and may have to resort to unpleasant methods.

I think some people have romantic notions and see nothing wrong with liking the form of paintings or the sound of music, but see it quite wrong to ease human workload or misery or the liking of the form of machines or interest in the things they do – all things humans create.

I also think MQ has his own agenda.


I believe you fail to see the scope energy depletion. All these things you listed are products of an irrellevent hiccup in the history of man. Homo Sapien is, at its root, just an animal. Somewhere in the tens of thousands of years HS existed a rift occured. The tribes continued to follow the natural way, while the societies rejected it. After all we see now is gone, millinea have passed, and these unnatural creations we swear by are overwhelmed by nature, the few tribes that survived through this phase, and the ones that regress back from us, will be there. They will flourish in the same way they always did, and will never have the opportunity to return to this anticlimatic state of delusion. Regardless of how long we keep the lights on with oil, coal, or uranium, the lights will go out. Hell, a wood fired boiler could provide electricity well into the future. Are you proposing cutting down every tree on earth for your egotistical need of comfort.
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Unread postby Wildwell » Sun 01 May 2005, 16:55:31

Again, have you any idea how much energy there is in the oceans, streams, wind or waste? Egotistical need of comfort? What the hell are you an about? Why is the want to be safe, warm and fed egotistical? I want to see my loved ones safe and well, have food on the table and not worry about me and my nearest. That is about as natural as it gets. As I said, if you really don't like it, you are free to go to your new life. Don't sit here using electricity and modern machines and tell everyone they are evil for creating things like medicine and water supply which saved many people from early or horrible deaths. One thing I cannot stand more than anything is people that take all the comforts themselves and preach to other people how bad others are. Machines are no more unnatural than anything else humans create or achieve - no less valid than art or music whatever the pompous idiots might like to think.
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Unread postby jato » Sun 01 May 2005, 17:11:43

I would like to see a “Star Trek” future. Is that optimism?

It is plain to see that we are using up (wasting) all of our stored energy (fossil fuels).

Our system is not about living more comfortable, happy lives. Our system is about influence, power and making money (greed). Comfort does sell really well. It is a big money maker.

Peak Oil, peak energy and the subsequent decline will mean less money & comfort per capita. It will be the destruction of the middle class. Will the wealthy spread their money and resources for the good of the masses post-peak? Or will they hold onto it and let the middle & lower classes suffer?

My most optimistic yet realistic post-Peak Oil scenario is for the middle class to disappear into poverty. Hoping for the wealthy elite to patch the failing systems (water, food, transportation, sewage, medical, etc.) enough to prevent a die-off. My family will wind up living in current 3rd world conditions.

That was my optimistic scenario and I don’t like it one bit. :(
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Unread postby vegasmade » Sun 01 May 2005, 17:38:00

I have no contempt for technology, it's uses, and all it's given us. As an american i'm conditioned to embrace it and frown on those who don't. You and I didn't create this world and I, as you, am happy to have been born into it. I'll miss it all as much as anybody when it's gone. This thread was about post peak oil psycological realities. Obviously, those are going to differ in different places. The fact that we can have this conversation is something i will greatly miss, if my ability is taken away. Unfortunately, our realities of any future energy crisis, have created a misunderstanding. Those technologies you speak of are great possible solutions. My reality, however, can't justify any faith in those solutions affecting me, my family, and my neighbors. I live inland, so ocean energy is nil. The river closest to me, the Colorado, is dammed. It provides electricity to the LA coasties who won't give up two feet of beach to harvest energy. A huge wind farm was proposed 100 miles north of where i'm sitting. The problem there is that everything 50-500 miles north is government land. And for no good reason they pulled the plug on it. Solar energy would be ideal in my area, but present technologies haven't yet made it a cost effective alternative. Even at the personal use level, the equipment is costly, and the life span on current generation solar cells wouldn't last more than 10-15 years, last i checked.
I make no dispute that places like Iceland with their abundant geothermal and Venezuela with large heavy oil and tar sands deposits may fair much better, in the long run. I will not hope for the best for the USA. Even now today we snub our noses at any possibility of drastic change, yet the reality is quite different. I am in no way criticising tech, it's obvious benefits, and few shortfalls. I am however forced to think in terms of plan B because our facist leaders hold us citizens with thinnly veiled contempt.
I will continue to hope it's not as bad as I think, but i'll be planning for worse. I apologize if i've offended you and wish you only the best in any postPO scenario.
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Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 02 May 2005, 23:01:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', 'M')Q: So what you are saying (and correct me if I’m wrong) is we shouldn’t have bothered with any machine, water supply, modern medicine, education, policing, retirement, money, electric light, only used dung and wood for heating – anything we see around us today. For the moments early humans started creating language and scribing on walls, writing books, making wheels and later house drawn railways and canals – that was all wrong and we should have just been hunters and gatherers and put up with the crap life threw at us, the starvation, cold, misery, the loss of loved ones and early death. We should have lived near resources and remained there and lived in peace, never going into neighbouring areas and stealing because we’d run out?


Correct you if you are wrong? I figured that my post would be over your head. You are 100% wrong.

Since 2nd law tells us that we are approaching our future with a detached exploitation of nature and our environment that is 180 degrees from the way the world works, we need to reestablish a sense of relationship and participation with the planet. We need to design tools and technologies that favor long-term sustainability and durability over short-term hyper-efficiency and expediency. Labor-saving and time-saving devices would become antiques of a by-gone age. We would recognize that all economic activity is merely an extension of the environment, thus economic production and social consumption would never be allowed to outpace the ecosytem's ability to recycle and renew the stock of available energy and resources. Society's energy flow must be reduced to as low a point as possible in order to sustain the unfolding of all of life as far into the future as possible. Our sustainable future is one of necessities, not luxuries.

The hard questions now start: Where do we draw the line? How many people, at what standard of living, can the earth support until the sun goes nova? Do we fight off every disease and pest? We know it has not worked to circumvent nature in the past, why should we consider the future to be any different? In man's early history, he was not aware that the consequences of his actions would be so dire. Now we do. And herein lies the difference; we have the knowledge and the science to understand and predict those consequences, yet the cultural and asset inertia born of greed and hedonistic attributes and a misguided world-view continues to prevail leaving in it's wake a ravaged planet and an uncertain future for all mankind. In simple terms, we need to live simpler lives and have the lightest footprint possible on the earth. Otherwise, we become merely a short-term species experiment and add homo sapien to the already long list of has-beens.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', 'F')orgive me MQ, you seem to be saying that out whole species are wrong in everything they have done and were doomed. Indeed rather than evolution being the survival of the fittest, the intelligent ones are doomed the most. I get the impression this is a belief system of yours and maybe something you follow?


Ah, so you fail to understand natural selection as well? Like you, most people interpret survival of the fittest to mean that in the state of nature, each organism is engaged in a relentless battle with all other creatures. Those who can survive and pass on their genes to their offspring are simply those best able to apply themselves to the task. This isn't how it works.

Natural selection is through the process of random genetic mutation that creates a gene that enhances the species ability to survive and reproduce. Over time, this genetic code becomes dominant in the gene pool and the species evolves. It's not a battle of wits, it's a process of who has the best genes to promote survival and reproduction, and thus is most fit to survive. And if it appears to be wits, it is a gene that is responsible.

Yes, it is a belief system I follow: It's called Basic Biology 101.
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Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 02 May 2005, 23:08:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', 'I') also think MQ has his own agenda.


Yeah? And just what might that be, pray tell? 8)
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Unread postby Wildwell » Tue 03 May 2005, 07:19:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', 'I') also think MQ has his own agenda.


Yeah? And just what might that be, pray tell? 8)


Well first of all you insult people and patronise them, never a good way to prove any point other than you are arrogant.

I posed a series of questions, you then in a round about way basically agree ‘labour saving devices’ aka machines are a waste of time are unsustainable. You talk about greed but fail to point out that many people do live a very low footprint life – including me. Most of the wealth is held by less than 5 million people on this planet. But, we have all contributed to the system we are in now. How do you propose reducing population: Immigration, shooting them, birth control? You also fail to address where most oil goes, which I have pointed out many times it’s frequently wasted. You also fail to point out 1/6th of the worlds’ population uses most of it, and the biggest consumer of all is your country. Instead you talk about the 2nd law of thermodynamics and the way you are applying it is a specific belief system and you know it.

I’m not sure what your agenda is: Anti capitalism, hard core environmentalist, maybe even promoting oil interests or a pro war scenario, who is to know. But you know very well, we cannot survive in a self sufficiency basis therefore we must make things sustainable as possible, yet you rubbish this as well, claiming this will not solve the bigger problem. It is not in our nature to do nothing nor live like animals. Really I don’t think you have anything useful to say, and, you don’t live in the ways you subscribe. May I suggest you are a hypocrite of the worst kind?

You own a large ranch and a sports car. I live in a 16th century stone-built terraced house with very thick walls and a garden 10foot by 20foot. I walk everywhere and use my local electric train service, which we are already generating more than enough renewable energy to sustain. I also never fly. So you tell me who is living beyond their means and depends more on oil? At least I am doing it, you just talk about it or come up with excuses not to.
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Unread postby Ludi » Tue 03 May 2005, 07:40:17

Wildwell, I'm wondering, do you think a person has a right to criticise something even if they don't have all the solutions to fixing it? Or do they have a right to observe failings in something while at the same time benefiting from it? This seems like it would be a very difficult way to live, because, for instance, if I wasn't happy with a law in my country, I couldn't point out the failing of the law or try to change it, I would have to leave the country, it seems to me, if I followed your line of thought.
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Unread postby Doly » Tue 03 May 2005, 07:52:04

My personal opinion is that criticising is far easier than actually fixing things. Most people that point out failings don't even make the slightest effort to make a change. I don't think this helps anybody.

I believe discussing things is great, but if it won't lead to any practical action, it's wasting our time, isn't it?
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Re: What's wrong with groundless optimism?

Unread postby heyhoser » Tue 03 May 2005, 07:55:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') get so frustrated by seeing the same arguments over and over - "People are resourceful, they'll think of something" "Scientists are clever, they'll think of something" "We can transition to alternative technology" etc etc, you know all that, you've heard it all a million times.

I get sooo frustrated and angry with these same lame arguments, but I'm asking myself, what's so wrong with groundless optismism that things will work out for the best?

What do you think?


More and more, as I talk to my family and my close friends, and even strangers at the bar where I bartend, I am coming to compare the blind optimism with the mindset of the Jews in Europe before the Final Solution.

Our families firmly believed that things wouldn't get 'that bad', that the persecution wouldn't get any worse, that the discrimination wouldn't lead to their actual slaughter. Despite ongoing warnings, stories from people who had seen the aftermath of mass murders, mass graves, the trains full of people that would constantly roll into the deathcamps and emerge without people, no one could seriously believe that something so dreadful could/would ever happen to them.

It has always been debatable what would have happened if we had known what was awaiting us. Most people I talk to believe that the Germans never would have been able to go so far if the Jews had simply stood up and said, "What a tick! They're not stopping HERE!"

In essence, I believe that optimism is vital to our well-being, our success, and our survival. But when we are faced with a catastrophe, it is easier to say, "Oh, it's okay. We're not really going to die. Nothing that bad would ever happen," than it is to say, "We're all going to die if we don't do something NOW."

I don't guess I'm really making any kind of point, except to point out that if we look through history at the crimes and catastrophes that have fallen upon us or that we have invited, we see the same optimism based in nothing more than our own human nature/ignorance that crumbles away only as the showers don't turn on and the room fills with gas.
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Unread postby Wildwell » Tue 03 May 2005, 07:58:42

It’s all about personal decisions and responsibility. I think many people on these boards are scared they might have to get off their fat backsides and walk or live in a less energy intensive way – we’ve heard all the excuses why they don’t do this, is if somehow that makes it alright. If that’s how you want to justify things to yourself feel free, that’s your decision. Who am I to say you shouldn’t do it. But don’t expect me to support wars that support your lifestyle, don’t expect me to shed a tear when you find fuel expensive to drive your SUV and don’t come on here preaching to other people that ‘oil was wasted’ when you run a sports car or SUV and so on, because it doesn’t wash.

If you don't like your country or what it's doing leave or get involved in lobbying or politics.
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Unread postby Ludi » Tue 03 May 2005, 08:03:28

I agree Doly. And as an example, here is what Monte posted above as a basic outline of the kind of culture he thinks we should be moving toward (if I understand him correctly):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')e need to reestablish a sense of relationship and participation with the planet. We need to design tools and technologies that favor long-term sustainability and durability over short-term hyper-efficiency and expediency. Labor-saving and time-saving devices would become antiques of a by-gone age. We would recognize that all economic activity is merely an extension of the environment, thus economic production and social consumption would never be allowed to outpace the ecosytem's ability to recycle and renew the stock of available energy and resources. Society's energy flow must be reduced to as low a point as possible in order to sustain the unfolding of all of life as far into the future as possible. Our sustainable future is one of necessities, not luxuries.


The criticism I see leveled at him is that he is not personally implementing this plan to the extent apparently desired by Wildwell, that is, Monte is still driving his car. Now in the big scheme of Monte's life, driving this car might not be such a big use of energy if Monte has given up some other things he might have done which use lots of energy, like having kids. That might be his trade-off, car in place of kids. Now, to avoid being a complete hypocrite it's true Monte should probably do what most of us should do which is to go out into the wilderness and die of exposure, since staying in modern society uses nonrenewable energy. Anyway, that would be my own plan if I decided not to be a hypocrite any more. But I don't actually see much value in that plan, not being big into the suicide thing right now, nor an advocate of it. Instead, I see more value in slowly transitioning to a less energy-intensive way of life.


(if I seem like a Monte apologist, I am! I like him. :) )
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