[Herr Meier]

Everyday that passed is closer to vaccine, cure, treatment. Nothing to worry about.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Herr Meier', 'E')veryday that passed is closer to vaccine, cure, treatment. Nothing to worry about.

[AndyA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'W')ith smallpox, there was mandatory vaccinations, even though the vaccine was fatal for 1 in every million and had some other, more common adverse effects. If there was an ebola vaccine with similar side-effects (death being one) would people get it ?

[AndyA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'B')ecause people aren't very contagious until they are too sick to travel.

.

[AndyA]

In 'Guns Germs and Steel' the author pointed out that some cultures are more resistant to disease then others, because they had evolutionary pressure from disease, I'd say that Africans must be likely to have the highest rates of immunity to ebola, and if for example it were to spread to Brazil it could spread quite rapidly. Pure speculation but the nurses in Spain and Dallas could very likely be of 'New World' heritage and hence have a lower level of resistance.

Does anyone understand how 'swine flu' or SARS was brought under control? I understand it was, but not exactly how.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AndyA', '
')
Does anyone understand how 'swine flu' or SARS was brought under control? I understand it was, but not exactly how.

[Pops]

Generally, I think pandemics happen because there is no "herd immunity" to whatever strain of bug - they end because of the overall increase in immunity. The H1N1 of 2009 is still around, it's just that many people have now been exposed and developed immunity to some extent.

This says a fifth of the population of the world got sick with the spanish flu in the first year or two. It had an "R" factor of 12 or something I think. Even though the stories go that you could get sick and die on your walk to work; it was that virulent, the mortality of the spanish flu was "only" 2.5% vs .1% for the "regular" flu.

Ebola's mortality is 50% so not much chance there would be a lot of the herd left if it had a R of 12 like the flu. The difference, at least from what I've read, is Ebola is not primarily respiratory - although it's kinda ambiguous, it seems like it is mostly hand-to-mouth. Flu is a respiratory disease so breathing in bugs aerosolized by a slight cough or sneeze is the perfect route to easy infection.

Add in that ebola is most contagious after symptoms appear while the flu is contagious at least a day before any symptoms appear - and the symptom in the case of the flu is a little sneeze - rather than projectile vomited blood and uncontrollable bloody diarrhea in the case of ebola.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'G')enerally, I think pandemics happen because there is no "herd immunity" to whatever strain of bug - they end because of the overall increase in immunity. The H1N1 of 2009 is still around, it's just that many people have now been exposed and developed immunity to some extent.

This says a fifth of the population of the world got sick with the spanish flu in the first year or two. It had an "R" factor of 12 or something I think. Even though the stories go that you could get sick and die on your walk to work; it was that virulent, the mortality of the spanish flu was "only" 2.5% vs .1% for the "regular" flu.

Ebola's mortality is 50% so not much chance there would be a lot of the herd left if it had a R of 12 like the flu. The difference, at least from what I've read, is Ebola is not primarily respiratory - although it's kinda ambiguous, it seems like it is mostly hand-to-mouth. Flu is a respiratory disease so breathing in bugs aerosolized by a slight cough or sneeze is the perfect route to easy infection.

Add in that ebola is most contagious after symptoms appear while the flu is contagious at least a day before any symptoms appear - and the symptom in the case of the flu is a little sneeze - rather than projectile vomited blood and uncontrollable bloody diarrhea in the case of ebola.

[Deputy Barnes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AndyA', 'I')n 'Guns Germs and Steel' the author pointed out that some cultures are more resistant to disease then others, because they had evolutionary pressure from disease, I'd say that Africans must be likely to have the highest rates of immunity to ebola, and if for example it were to spread to Brazil it could spread quite rapidly. Pure speculation but the nurses in Spain and Dallas could very likely be of 'New World' heritage and hence have a lower level of resistance.

Does anyone understand how 'swine flu' or SARS was brought under control? I understand it was, but not exactly how.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'O')kay Pops, nice review but I don't see your prediction for how things will turn out?

[Lore]

Infection is really going to come from family members helping each other. Friends helping friends.

In any case, I'm not going to worry too much about the progression of the disease till it really starts to pop up next door. Just to remain vigilant till then.

[tmazanec1]

What about many millions of Muslims in Africa dying, helping to further radicalize the Muslim world, leading to a revolution in Pakistan leading to a war with India or a Middle East war? That could light the fuse to World War Three, indirectly killing billions.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tmazanec1', 'W')hat about many millions of Muslims in Africa dying, helping to further radicalize the Muslim world, leading to a revolution in Pakistan leading to a war with India or a Middle East war? That could light the fuse to World War Three, indirectly killing billions.

[AndyA]

If we have to wait for ebola to devolve into a milder strain, that could take a while, and things will get worse before they get better. It basically means that the mortality rate will fall, making people contagious for longer. That will take years to work itself out. I have heard that before, the virus evolves favouring transmission vs mortality. So as the number of cases rises, the mortality rate will decline. A virus that kills its host too quickly doesn't get the chance to spread, so the evolutionary pressure is favouring transmission rather then mortality.

A note on mortality, just because it doesn't kill you doesn't mean you will go back to normal, all your organs are basically fucked, and your life expectancy severely reduced.

P.S. when I mentioned 'New World' I was not talking about J6P, but Native Americans from north and south America, as opposed to the European invaders who colonised the new world. So the odds of a Mexican nurse in Dallas, and an Argentinian nurse in spain are reasonable. It is just speculation, but if I was of that heritage I would be a bit more careful.

[Newfie]

Deput Barnes,

Welcome aboard. Interesting first post.

Are you in this field or a casual observer/hobbyist?

My Wife was drawing the opposite conclusion, that perhaps disadvantaged folks would have been more exposed to disease and thus less susceptible.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Deputy Barnes', '
')
Actually several people from America have caught the disease and made fairly rapid recoveries. Kent Bradley from Texas faired much better than Thomas Duncan from Liberia. Although one might wager that Kent turned himself in at the opportune moment and got better medical care, the fact remains that whites have had much better survival rates than black Africans.

[KaiserJeep]

The PBS News Hour just reported today that revised casualty figures from the affected African countries have caused them to raise the fatality rate for Ebola infections from the prior estimate of 50% of infected persons to a new estimate that 70% of all infected people will die. The statements reported were attributed to WHO assistant director-general Bruce Aylward.

The exact updated statistics are 4,447 deaths out of 8,914 total cases. The 70% figure includes "in treatment" patients who are clearly in declining health and are not expected to recover.

[Deputy Barnes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'D')eput Barnes,

Welcome aboard. Interesting first post.

Are you in this field or a casual observer/hobbyist?

My Wife was drawing the opposite conclusion, that perhaps disadvantaged folks would have been more exposed to disease and thus less susceptible.

[Deputy Barnes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'T')he PBS News Hour just reported today that revised casualty figures from the affected African countries have caused them to raise the fatality rate for Ebola infections from the prior estimate of 50% of infected persons to a new estimate that 70% of all infected people will die. The statements reported were attributed to WHO assistant director-general Bruce Aylward.

The exact updated statistics are 4,447 deaths out of 8,914 total cases. The 70% figure includes "in treatment" patients who are clearly in declining health and are not expected to recover.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Deputy Barnes', '[')

We've all been told that Native Americans were decimated by smallpox to whicn they had no immunity. I think this is a highly exagerrated excuse concocted by Leftist anthropologists like Howard Zinn, in support of their (equally exagerrated) estimation of the New World's precontact population size.