[KingM]

My guess is that it will eventually escape the three affected countries to trouble most of the poor regions of Africa, with occasional annoying, but not devastating outbreaks in other countries with better health care systems. I keep thinking that if Nigeria could nip an outbreak in the bud, then most countries could do so.

I'm going to say 200-400K dead within a year, with a steady 50K plus per year after that until they manage to get a vaccine. Once they have a vaccine, it will go away quickly.

[dinopello]

In undeveloped country's it could be quite bad, in the millions. In the US, say in the next 10 years, I estimate that ebola will kill less people than die in automobile accidents in a single day.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'M')y guess is that it will eventually escape the three affected countries to trouble most of the poor regions of Africa, with occasional annoying, but not devastating outbreaks in other countries with better health care systems. I keep thinking that if Nigeria could nip an outbreak in the bud, then most countries could do so.

I'm going to say 200-400K dead within a year, with a steady 50K plus per year after that until they manage to get a vaccine. Once they have a vaccine, it will go away quickly.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'I')n undeveloped country's it could be quite bad, in the millions. In the US, say in the next 10 years, I estimate that ebola will kill less people than die in automobile accidents in a single day.

[AndyA]

It has the same R0 factor as aids, so speed up the aids epidemic by a factor of 50 to account for the shorter lifespan of the diseased and that is my most likely scenario.

Mitigation, stay away from anyone that has been to Africa, if you start seeing 3rd and 4th tier infections, then bunker down. I think in a developed country they can prevent the secondary infections from spreading it, but time will tell. Already 1 secondary in the US with more likely to follow. Avoid swapping bodily fluids with strangers is a good place to start right now though, and avoid black guys in green shirts.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'S')o Ebola is here and now and it is clear that no one has a firm idea of how it will play out. Estimates range from final death counts of less then 20,000 all the way up to a doomsday number of 3.5 Billion. This thread is for your estimates of what the final death count will be and what is perhaps more interesting what that result will do to the economy and your personnel situation. Will this bring the worlds economy to a standstill. Will imports become a thing of the past? Do you have preparations in place that will allow you to isolate your self and your family members long enough for this plaque to pass you by when it comes to your neighbor hood? What else might you need to do in the near future. Nothing? the government will handle it and they know what they are doing. Or Get in the bunker >!! the world as we know it has ended? Or something in between.
I'm still thinking about my answers to those questions so feel free to put out your current ideas then modify them as events progress.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'S')o Ebola is here and now and it is clear that no one has a firm idea of how it will play out. Estimates range from final death counts of less then 20,000 all the way up to a doomsday number of 3.5 Billion. This thread is for your estimates of what the final death count will be and what is perhaps more interesting what that result will do to the economy and your personnel situation. Will this bring the worlds economy to a standstill. Will imports become a thing of the past? Do you have preparations in place that will allow you to isolate your self and your family members long enough for this plaque to pass you by when it comes to your neighbor hood? What else might you need to do in the near future. Nothing? the government will handle it and they know what they are doing. Or Get in the bunker >!! the world as we know it has ended? Or something in between.
I'm still thinking about my answers to those questions so feel free to put out your current ideas then modify them as events progress.

[Tanada]

Like all diseases Ebola has a reservoir environment, a plant or animal species where it can live and reproduce without killing its host. Unless that host is widespread outside of Tropical Africa then after the virus spreads to other area's and burns out it will cease to exist in those other areas.

Influenza is carried by migratory birds so when an outbreak starts it can spread far and wide and the pool of reservoir animals is very large and wide spread. West Nile Virus on the other hand is spread by mosquito's of a few species and if those particular bugs do not live where you live you can not catch the disease from them.

Ebola is no different, just because we do not yet know what the reservoir species is does not mean we will never figure it out. Any disease with such a large death rate can not survive long term in the hosts it kills, it has to exist in its reservoir species for long term survival. Outside of southern Florida I do not see a lot of tropical climate zones in the continental USA where Ebola reservoir species are likely to live.

Crowding and close contact between people could spread it pretty far in dense warm cities like Mexico City or Jakarta, Indonesia. This could result in a large world wide death toll in tropical/semi-tropical cities in Asia/Africa/Central America. Not so much spread in deserts like the USA Southwest, or dry high altitude environments like Tibet.

Final toll, if it gets spreading in India/Bangladesh/Indochina/Indonesia could be a Billion dead humans.
Europe and North America and China and Russia maybe a few thousand very unlucky people who come into close contact will ill people migrating from tropical areas or those they spread it too like family and friends.

If someone deliberately spreads it then no estimates are possible, it all depends on where they spread it and how efficiently they manage to do it.

[Herr Meier]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'M')y guess is that it will eventually escape the three affected countries to trouble most of the poor regions of Africa.

[dinopello]

With smallpox, there was mandatory vaccinations, even though the vaccine was fatal for 1 in every million and had some other, more common adverse effects. If there was an ebola vaccine with similar side-effects (death being one) would people get it ?

[Pops]

I'm still of the opinion that casual transmission is not easy and most victims will be those having close contact with obviously sick people. This link below speculates that aerosols are viable for a period but that most infections are hand to mouth.

I really have no basis to guess what that means as far as numbers go. But as to my personal alarm level, as of the 5th of November I will be homeless and the only bunkering I'd be able to do would be to boondock down in AZ somewhere, I'm not planning that at this point.

I did by some masks at Lowes yesterday and a couple of big bottles of hand sanitizer

[quote]Altogether, these epidemiologic and experimental data offer enough evidence to suggest that Ebola and other filoviruses may be opportunistic with respect to aerosol transmission.28 That is, other routes of entry may be more important and probable, but, given the right conditions, it is possible that transmission could also occur via aerosols.[quote]

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect ... tion-ebola

[KingM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Herr Meier', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'M')y guess is that it will eventually escape the three affected countries to trouble most of the poor regions of Africa.

[Pops]

Because people aren't very contagious until they are too sick to travel.

.

[Lore]

Realistically, how many hospitals can handle a number of these cases here in the US? A few dozen maybe? At a cost per patient of a million plus? It's obvious then that it won't take too many victims of the disease to overwhelm the system.

Then real panic sets in. People stop going to work, school well before that, hospital personnel last. The guy that turns on the switches at the power plant doesn't show up and lights flicker and go out. The Walmart truck driver is home with his shades pulled and no deliveries are made today.

The corner gas station is also closed, no electricity for the pumps anyway. Those with generators are quickly tapped out with no resupply. Then again if you stop and think, would you really want to be grabbing those pump handles without your hazmat suit on?

This is how black swans fly.

[KingM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'B')ecause people aren't very contagious until they are too sick to travel.
.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'I')f I'd had Ebola instead of a food-borne pathogen, all those other people could have easily become sick.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', ' ')I'm really surprised you haven't seen neighboring countries with their own little outbreaks.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'R')ealistically, how many hospitals can handle a number of these cases here in the US? A few dozen maybe? At a cost per patient of a million plus? It's obvious then that it won't take too many victims of the disease to overwhelm the system.

Then real panic sets in. People stop going to work, school well before that, hospital personnel last. The guy that turns on the switches at the power plant doesn't show up and lights flicker and go out. The Walmart truck driver is home with his shades pulled and no deliveries are made today.

The corner gas station is also closed, no electricity for the pumps anyway. Those with generators are quickly tapped out with no resupply. Then again if you stop and think, would you really want to be grabbing those pump handles without your hazmat suit on?

This is how black swans fly.

[vtsnowedin]

I have not yet decided on what I think the outcome will be. If it spreads to one of the major overpopulated cities. Cairo, Islamabad ,Calcutta etc. the death toll good easily go to a billion or more and that would be a major shock to the worlds economy. Every day seems to bring a new case in a new location so I see little to be optimistic about. So for now until further facts are known I'll estimate that even 1,000,000,000 deaths before the world wide R 0 drops below 1.