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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

How to save energy through both societal and individual actions.

Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 19 Jan 2025, 17:39:04

Today I made/bought/learnt (for a post oil world) 5
viewtopic.php?f=8&t=64507&p=1198732&view=show#p1198732

A locked thread but interesting to read. I was in that camp once, growing veggies and hoarding old shovels. Then I realized that for every hour I spent working in my business I could buy a weeks worth of food. That was food for thought. "But when the system collapses" they all said, "Then you'll only have what you can grow, you'll starve!" So I researched that, and found that in all places and at all times people with wealth could buy food, because people that grow food always have an excess that is useless to them. Of course to avail yourself of this you have be living out where they are typically, so I moved out country into a farming region.

This home farming/permiculture/Doomstead model they all followed had one fatal flaw. If it ever got as bad as they said it would, they would be overrun by hungry hoards, their crops stripped like as by a plague of locusts. This is well recorded in history too! It happens every time. In the German hyperinflation, in the french Revolution. Millions of hungry city people traveling out to get food for themselves and their children. And they find a way. They always do. So these hopeful simple souls who think they are going to weather the collapse of the industrial world tell all their neighbors and encourage them to grow food and stockpile things of value. And in so doing they make themselves a Huge target for the future. "Go down to Tom's, he has lots of food stored, medicines too and everything you could want."
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 21 Jan 2025, 21:30:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', 'n')o sharing needed. Just own less, consume less, produce less, waste less.

All true, but not for bezos, musk, Paris Hilton, or Me. We all go to the max, the max of our available resources or abilities, and even then some with debt. That's why nothing works to control the human appetite besides collapse. We all talk about giving up stuff but we never do until we lose our job or otherwise run out of money. Give the average person a million dollars and they'll be straight out the door shopping for a new car and a boat and a new home too in many cases.

Apparently 80% of plastics are not recycled, 40% or so go into landfills, 20% into the ocean, 20% is burnt into the atmosphere. So do we, as consumers, stop buying plastic? Never! Cheese comes in plastic, so do potato chips and wide screen TV's. None of us want to miss out on those products, none aside from the 1:1000,000 eco-nuts living in a yurt growing their own vegetables. But even they have a plastic coated cell phone that will go into a landfill, else how would we ever know they were out there living in the dirt if they didn't post up the saga on youtube.

I've OVER talking about "Saving" the planet and all that. All I want to save is my own lifestyle, and everyone is the same, pretending otherwise is just mental masturbation. The coming PeakOil collapse will settle all these accounts and reign in over-consumption. It will reduce population and pollution and all the BS the oil age has given us. But technology "Stuff" is like Heroin and as long as you can maintain your access to it, modern processed foods, and climate control and mobility etc, you won't give it up. It's what I like about this forum! Here all the dangers and pitfalls to modern life are shown, even in the majority reality-contrarian mindset that believes we can solve the unsolvable. It allows the rest to learn and adapt, to protect their wealth, to ensure their future happiness. To live like it's 1999.


Not really an argument but i am old enough that we got our meat from the butcher shop wrapped in white paper and I can remember getting potato chips in wax paper bags. Everything doesn't have top be wrapped and displayed in plastic, it is just how things have developed.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 22 Jan 2025, 04:25:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')Not really an argument but i am old enough that we got our meat from the butcher shop wrapped in white paper and I can remember getting potato chips in wax paper bags. Everything doesn't have top be wrapped and displayed in plastic, it is just how things have developed.


Yes Tanada, it is the rational profit maximizer at work. The plastic comes as a byproduct of gas liquids and has little use outside of plastic baggies so the market has been flooded by it. It's cheap, and trees are scarce in a sense and more costly to turn into paper equivalents.

I still see chips in paper bags, but they are more expensive, and it's a bit of a con anyway since they are plastic lined for freshness. Supermarket sales are a special case in the sense that those products are right in the consumers face and they get to hold them and make choices. When you order a Flat screen TV it comes in a cardboard box and inside a big plastic bag but no one challenges that because they don't see it at the point of sale.

It's a constant tug of war between the consumers who want cheap prices and the corporate bosses who want as much money as they can get. The plastic issue is just a small piece of the overall hunt for profit, and unfortunately, one that is causing untold ecological damage..

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') profit maximizer is any technique used to increase your customers' average order value and hence instant profit. Marketing every product separately is great and still makes plenty of money in its own right. But if you want to really upscale your game, creating multiple offers for your customers is an excellent way to rake in more money faster.

Profit maximizers enable you to squeeze out more value from your current customers and potentially save much more that you would have spent marketing and advertising to get new customers as well as distribution to more customers. This means that even without changing ad spend or increasing product prices, you can generate more income with the same customers you already have.
https://www.localdigital.com.au/blog/wh ... 5-examples

So you sell them cloth bags or paper bags if they want to go Green, but all your actual food must be in airtight plastic to ensure longevity and hence greater profits due to less waste. My supermarket imports all it's cakes and most of it's bread from 2000km away where it's made cheaply in huge complexes. It arrives in huge trucks, frozen stiff, nice and fresh so they say. Just don't refreeze it of course.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 25 Jan 2025, 00:12:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')Not really an argument but i am old enough that we got our meat from the butcher shop wrapped in white paper and I can remember getting potato chips in wax paper bags. Everything doesn't have top be wrapped and displayed in plastic, it is just how things have developed.


Same here for the meat. And addiionally we wrapped our venison in that white paper as well. Never even saw potato chips that I can remember until college. Same with mass produced pizza, mom and grandma made ours, it was a treat. The first time Dominos delivered pizza to my dorm room...shit it was like amazing, living in the "big city" (county seat, maybe a population of 10,000), pizzas delivered.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 06 Feb 2025, 13:33:39

Tanada,

Like you old enough to have seen different.

But everyone grows up to to expect their adolescent/young adult hood experience to be the norm.

I really dislike muck of American consumerism. All kinds of needless waste. But younger folks just take it as natural, the way the world is supposed to be.

I believe that is part of my attraction to leas developed areas, remind me of my youth.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 13 Feb 2025, 16:30:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I') believe that is part of my attraction to leas developed areas, remind me of my youth.


Yes, an era when people paid off their home and didn't go into debt to rebuild it year after year lol. The amount of money wasted, even out where I am, new arrivals, is phenomenal. New fences, new driveways, to replace ones that are still ok, but just look old. Big decks they never use, walls knocked out internally to have the "open plan" living. Great until you have to air condition that! Am I critical? Damn right. These people are near retirement in many cases, the debt they take on to "Add value" will be crippling when they retire.

In the street I grew up in no one modified anything, ever! They just enjoyed life and used their homes as homes, not magazine show houses. It's a sickness almost, the result of consumer marketing especially evident in TV renovation shows, the shows themselves that is. It doesn't happen a lot out here, like I say, only when some city folk move out. They buy the cheapest house in the street, a dump, then spend a fortune transforming it, all in line with the TV wisdom. If they had just looked around in the beginning for a really nice place and spent the money on that they'd have come out far ahead. What's the first thing you do when you buy a dilapidated old timber home? You raise and re stump it of course, so you have a level structure to begin with. This is often the last thing these fools do, if they do it at all!

It's women mostly, building little dream homes, little dolls houses as I call them. I got that saying from an older woman near retirement, "this is my dolls house" she told me [smilie=5baby.gif]
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Wed 19 Feb 2025, 22:29:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I') believe that is part of my attraction to leas developed areas, remind me of my youth.


Yes, an era when people paid off their home and didn't go into debt to rebuild it year after year lol. The amount of money wasted, even out where I am, new arrivals, is phenomenal. New fences, new driveways, to replace ones that are still ok, but just look old. Big decks they never use, walls knocked out internally to have the "open plan" living. Great until you have to air condition that! Am I critical? Damn right. These people are near retirement in many cases, the debt they take on to "Add value" will be crippling when they retire.

Australian retirement system rewards you for being in the sweet spot.
"Alliance for a Fairer Retirement System pointed to a super sweet spot of around $400,000, which can see a pensioner (home-owning) couple “earning $1,000 a month more than a couple with $800,000 in savings.”
https://www.canstar.com.au/superannuati ... weet-spot/

So if you have more than $400 G in Super you can only spend it on your house as your house isnt counted as an asset for Pension/Super.
Having more than $400 and less than 1mill will see you worse off than having $400 G and the Pension.

Im looking at up-sizing or putting in a pool and a gym and or more travel...I still have a few years to make a decision and you dont get any younger and you do spend more time at home.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 06 Mar 2025, 06:02:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shaved Monkey', '
')Australian retirement system rewards you for being in the sweet spot.
"Alliance for a Fairer Retirement System pointed to a super sweet spot of around $400,000...
Im looking at up-sizing or putting in a pool and a gym and or more travel...I still have a few years to make a decision and you dont get any younger and you do spend more time at home.

pull the money out as cash and buy gold coins from dealers "cash", while you still can!

What you propose is what everyone is doing and as history shows, the majority always gets fleeced. 2008 proved that! An anomaly? No, a test case to see how the masses would react to having their retirement stolen. But that money is already gone actually, it is mostly invested in overpriced commercial RE and in the stock market, which every serious analyst admits is an overpriced casino now. Every generation has it's promise of happy retirement and every generation gets dudded.

If you want security you have to go outside the system. Silver is still cheap.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 21 Apr 2025, 06:43:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'W')hat you propose is what everyone is doing and as history shows, the majority always gets fleeced. 2008 proved that!


No one forced people to sell on the drop, other than very unwise margin traders maybe. Lots of folks bought at the bottom, earlier 2009 was blue light special time if there ever was one. (I think I'm remembering the timing right, I ain't lookin it up). Stuff that fell to $5 is now going for $70; many higher than they were before the crash.

If you're going to sell after a crash, do not buy stocks. Simple as that. When all the analysts are moaning and whining, when the things are looking "grim"; that's when you go shopping.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 21 Apr 2025, 09:06:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
')
If you're going to sell after a crash, do not buy stocks. Simple as that.


It's not as simple as that I'm afraid. 2008 was a crash by any standards, but the powers that be poured a trillion new bucks into the system and it all came back. It has convinced the average person that A/ stock markets will always come right back after a beating, and B/ that the system can and will be propped up at all cost. Neither of these assumptions are true. If you look at the period before the 1929 collapse you'll see many "recessions" where the markets tanked but quickly came back. Indeed between 29 and 33 there was a major recovery, but it fell apart and we had the depression. Stocks never recovered until the 1950's and many of the former stars were gone, pushed out of the index and replaced with rising stars.

Most pension funds buy individual stocks, not the index itself, and they like to buy the growth stocks like Tesla and Nvidea. In other words the risky ones. What was the problem in 29? Debt. What's the problem today? Debt again. So we've had a good run since 1980 but it won't last. Have a look at this chart below, imagine you were near retirement and held a bunch of stocks in 1960 when the index was 7000. It fell thereafter and didn't come back to that price until 1990. You'd have to wait 30 years, half of it through falling prices. "Sell after a crash". If you need the money to live you have to sell, simple as that. It was a shitshow for that 30 years but the average Joe wasn't in stocks then, they were on SS or company pensions. Now they are all in stocks through their private pension funds. It's a classic setup! It's no wonder they introduced private pensions in 1980. Been a dream run since then.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jo ... ical-chart

Stocks are not just some investment choice we take of leave, they are one of the fundamental pillars of the capitalist economy, when they collapse the economy collapses.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 24 Apr 2025, 08:01:39

The current rapid reaction yo-yo of the market makes me thing we have not learned much iver the decades.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 13 May 2025, 16:30:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'T')he current rapid reaction yo-yo of the market makes me thing we have not learned much iver the decades.

Well those that manipulate it have. They have learned to maximize profits across all sectors. I read an article a decade and more ago that explained (and documented) how major corporations, within their financial departments, own vast stocks in other companies, often their competitors. This was an Australian based study and it basically showed the inter-ownership between them all. A major Bank held large holdings in Coke, Rio Tinto mining, other banks and other leading corporations. Coke held a big block of shares in that bank and others. Rio stock in all of them. That sort of information was easily accessible in the early days of the web, now it's invisible, expunged by the search engines. Try searching "corporate inter-ownership"
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')"Corporate inter-ownership" refers to a situation where one company owns shares in another company, creating a complex web of ownership relationships between different corporations. This interconnectedness can lead to significant power and influence over industries and potentially impact market dynamics and competition.

The bones of one site https://ruk.ca/content/opencorporations ... porate-web
https://web.archive.org/web/20240526074 ... whyclosed/

The major corps are like one big cartel and it's why you see CEOs moving from one to another, even after presiding over a collapse of one. Just because a corp collapses doesn't mean it failed naturally, they are often set up to fail, those in control stripping them of assets and selling and walking away. How much Google stock is held by major corporations? Certainly enough to guarantee seats on the board. And once there you can dictate any amount of censorship you like. Good conspiracies are well covered up and these are a few of them. The biggest conspiracies, such as the large banks controlling FED policy (rates) are out in the open. They hold all the stock in the Federal Reserve Bank, how could they not control rates to maximize their profits.

Sheep for the Fleecing.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 26 Jun 2025, 10:19:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')hares of Winnebago Industries plunged nearly 10% on Wednesday after the recreational vehicle maker—best known for its travel campers—slashed its full-year outlook, citing persistent pressure on consumer demand from mounting macroeconomic headwinds and elevated borrowing costs. The RV industry downturn, now well entrenched, has been underway since the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates in early 2022.


Ahhhh, a little glimpse behind the curtain. All you need to know here is that Winnebago, along with nearly every other listed company across the globe too btw, is mired in debt. Such is the accounts companies often use debt just to make payroll. Companies big and small. The average consumer is no different either. They may have a decent job, probably a mortgage on a home and a loan on a car, but they will have Zero dollars in the bank, instead using CCs to fund their lifestyle. I believe it was a similar affair in the roaring twenties, at least as far as companies were concerned.

Degrowth was sometimes discussed here as perhaps being an orderly shutting down of energy consuming industries and lifestyles. An engineered degrowth, but engineered by who and how I have no idea. Basically we're all in a Dodge Viper that's in top gear, foot flat to the floor and heading straight for a Brick Wall. Degrowth, for us, would be best modeled by what happened in the USSR as it collapsed. But that would only be half of it actually because the USSR was not a society built on over consumption as ours is. No one in the USSR took out a 5 or 10 year loan to buy a Winnebago I assure you. And why the hell are we? A house loan, sure, in a fiat system under continuous inflation what other choice do you have. But that's where it should stop.

New cars? What's wrong with an old car if you don't have the money to buy new? people say "Oh but the interest rate is so cheap..." but so what, you still have to pay back the principle. You still put yourself under a heavy yoke for 3 or 5 years into the future. You want to enter a Great Depression hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt? We have seen what happens there, you lose your home and become a vagabond. From riches to rags in a year or less.

When companies like Winnebago go under they take thousands of jobs with them and when those failures happen enmass across a nation or the world there is no coming back in the short term. To me degrowth means de-growing my own personal consumption below what I can afford with the cash and income I have on hand, Today. Screw the world, they are going to the wall, at full speed. In the analogy above with the Viper the trick is get out of it at the lights so to speak, let the other partygoers takeoff without you.

As they say, nobody rings a bell at the top of a market and nobody calls out a warning before an event like the GFC or the 1929 crash. Quite the opposite in fact. Back then the leaders of industry, economics and government were appearing in the papers telling people not to worry, all was fine. The world will enter degrowth alright, nothing surer. Enter it in a rush as the debt bubble collapses and it will suck down everything indebted that isn't on the "protected" list. Many banks included I am sure.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 26 Jun 2025, 13:29:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')hares of Winnebago Industries plunged nearly 10% on Wednesday after the recreational vehicle maker—best known for its travel campers—slashed its full-year outlook, citing persistent pressure on consumer demand from mounting macroeconomic headwinds and elevated borrowing costs. The RV industry downturn, now well entrenched, has been underway since the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates in early 2022.


Ahhhh, a little glimpse behind the curtain.


Maybe. But unless your boy recently graduated high school, unlike his old man, and told you this, no one can an uneducated half wits word for it. Winnebago has been around since 1958. It isn't an Australian company that when it tries to launch a rocket, the nose cone falls off.

Queenslanders (banana bending specialists) try to launch rocket last month.

Being banana benders at heart...when they ran a pre-launch test the nose cone fell off the rocket. Note to banana benders....find an American high school graduate, they can help you improve technology that real countries figured out decades ago...but they weren't handicapped by having banana benders in charge, but real live scientist and engineer types.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 26 Jun 2025, 23:17:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '[')img]https://i.ytimg.com/vi/AxP__6gDQjA/hqdefault.jpg[/img]
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 30 Jun 2025, 13:45:01

Lucky,

I for one do not see degrowth as an orderly engineered event.

It strikes me all operating economies use some version of Capitalisim which holds growth as a necessary tenant. It seems banked into our genes and maybe it is.

I have never been able to find a theory of how degrowth is supposed to work. The ones I did read were no-sensical or did not really address degrowth.

I suspect we will go down kicking and screaming.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 01 Jul 2025, 03:12:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'L')ucky,

I for one do not see degrowth as an orderly engineered event... I have never been able to find a theory of how degrowth is supposed to work...


Well there are two ways to pull an engine apart, orderly on the workbench, or at redline on the racetrack. I have never been a cornucopian Newfie and never considered for a moment that de-growth would be orderly. I have no "orderly" example of it from history, quite the opposite in fact. And even if it was proposed I have no hope that it could occur due to the selfish nature of humans, especially today.

Orderly Degrowth implies the voluntary "Giving up" of aspects of our lifestyle. Would you, for example, be happy to give up either your boat or your house, if you were told you could only have one? Yet every day we see people "involuntarily" giving up jobs and homes and cars and food even. The supermarket in my town is a happy place where people stop and chat with each other, in the small city up North West of me, in the poorer areas, they have security guard at the door. They are experiencing de-growth :-D

I think this thread started on the premise of orderly Degrowth, well that's mentally positive, but a dead end. I'd rather take my lumps early on than get hit by a sledge hammer at the end.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 01 Jul 2025, 18:56:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')I think this thread started on the premise of orderly Degrowth, well that's mentally positive, but a dead end. I'd rather take my lumps early on than get hit by a sledge hammer.....


Spoken like someone who has bumbled through life so poorly they've already had both occur to them and know their preference from experience. I recommend being educated and avoiding both, but some folks are just 80 IQ types and don't have the ability to figure this out.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 02 Jul 2025, 19:10:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ndustrial civilization is characterized by a short, meteoric lifespan of unprecedented boom and drastic bust. It is unsustainable without fossil fuels, and its collapse is predicted due to environmental change, aggravation of existing modes of production, and elite failure to adopt new means of production.


Four Reasons Civilization Won’t Decline: It Will Collapse
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')As modern civilization’s shelf life expires, more scholars have turned their attention to the decline and fall of civilizations past. Their studies have generated rival explanations of why societies collapse and civilizations die. Meanwhile, a lucrative market has emerged for post-apocalyptic novels, movies, TV shows, and video games for those who enjoy the vicarious thrill of dark, futuristic disaster and mayhem from the comfort of their cozy couch. Of course, surviving the real thing will become a much different story.

The latent fear that civilization is living on borrowed time has also spawned a counter-market of “happily ever after” optimists who desperately cling to their belief in endless progress. Popular Pollyannas, like cognitive psychologist Steven Pinker, provide this anxious crowd with soothing assurances that the titanic ship of progress is unsinkable. Pinker’s publications have made him the high priest of progress. While civilization circles the drain, his ardent audiences find comfort in lectures and books brimming with cherry-picked evidence to prove that life is better than ever, and will surely keep improving. Yet, when questioned, Pinker himself admits, “It’s incorrect to extrapolate that the fact that we’ve made progress is a prediction that we’re guaranteed to make progress.”

Pinker’s rosy statistics cleverly disguise the fatal flaw in his argument. The progress of the past was built by sacrificing the future—and the future is upon us. All the happy facts he cites about living standards, life expectancy, and economic growth are the product of an industrial civilization that has pillaged and polluted the planet to produce temporary progress for a growing middle class—and enormous profits and power for a tiny elite.

Not everyone who understands that progress has been purchased at the expense of the future thinks that civilization’s collapse will be abrupt and bitter. Scholars of ancient societies, like Jared Diamond and John Michael Greer, accurately point out that abrupt collapse is a rare historical phenomenon. In The Long Descent, Greer assures his readers that, “The same pattern repeats over and over again in history. Gradual disintegration, not sudden catastrophic collapse, is the way civilizations end.” Greer estimates that it takes, on average, about 250 years for civilizations to decline and fall, and he finds no reason why modern civilization shouldn’t follow this “usual timeline.” But Greer’s assumption is built on shaky ground because industrial civilization differs from all past civilizations in four crucial ways. And every one of them may accelerate and intensify the coming collapse while increasing the difficulty of recovery.
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... -collapse/

Greer's pattern also leaves out some of the most obvious cases of collapse, like Rome for example. It's true that the Roman Empire was in gradual dis-"integration" for a long time, but in the end it collapsed overnight when the Goths entered Italy and Rome itself was conquered. and there are the Mayans, what happened to them? Or the builders of Angkor, the Khmer Empire. A huge city state discovered hidden in the jungles of modern day Cambodia. There are many other examples of course, overnight declines, fast de-growth you might say, or the rapid unwinding of centuries of progress once some tipping point was reached.

What is this tipping point? What causes it? Well a big part of it in my mind is the unwillingness of the people of the empire to rally, to fight, or simply to continue on with business as usual at their jobs. After decades and centuries of exploitation the people are worn down and see no value in carrying on the enterprise they helped support, I see that in many nations today. People are shallow basically. If all is going well and their own lot is improving they will rally around the flag. But if it's not, if they see the elites that rule over them have gotten fat and greedy at their expense then they do the opposite. They don't think ahead as to the consequences of their actions, hunger, flight from their homes to uncertain rural future for example. All they are thinking is that they couldn't be that worse off than they are now.

The collapse of the Russian nobility and it's system was spurred on by this thinking and that led to communism, which was worse. Communism in Russia collapsed into a form of capitalism, which for many was worse than communism. Worse for who? In most cases for the older generations who had done their life's work and were now being supported by the state. These are not the ones that rebel, it is the younger generations that pull their labor and allegiance, who refuse to work and choose to suck off the state like their elders are. This occurs when the grand civilization reaches a point where it has exploited all the natural resources (in terms of rate to support its growing population) and then it collapses. The social security system is a good example of this, as is our over consumption of oil, as is the road networks and water grid etc. Do not underestimate the necessity of potable water, it's one of the fundamentals of life and and when the aqueduct network of the Roman Empire began to collapse cities became untenable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he collapse of Roman aqueducts was a gradual process, driven by a combination of factors including economic decline, societal shifts, and deliberate destruction during conflicts. Economic hardship and a decrease in centralized governance led to a decline in aqueduct maintenance. Additionally, invading forces sometimes targeted aqueducts as a means to weaken cities, and internal issues like theft and neglect also contributed to their deterioration


How the Romans built the Aqueducts and how it led to the collapse of Rome
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he situation followed from the increase in population, which led to an overuse of water and destruction of the available aqueducts (William, and Smith, and William 1875, 43). Because of the recorded scarcity of the water coupled with the poor sanitation of the available one, it made it difficult for the empire to ensure a reliable supply of water to the people leading to their migration in rural areas for their own upkeep where they could get access to salient facilities. This significantly contributed to the collapse of the Roman Empire.
https://ivypanda.com/essays/how-the-rom ... e-of-rome/

Think about that next time you see a leaking water main. All the modern utilities that service our homes, and even the streets where the homeless live, are in decline. Water, food, security. All are degrading in our cities along with much else. All our cities and their attendant suburbs and exurbs are doomed because of this trend, you just have to project if forward to see.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 02 Jul 2025, 20:21:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Four Reasons Civilization Won’t Decline: It Will Collapse

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... -collapse/

So...to summarize....the same folks/website that told us to become farmers because peak oil in 2005 causing things along the lines of, from Richard Heinberg, the government needing to create the Holodamor, Pol Pot and Mao schemes of marching citizens out of the cities into the fields and farms, have decided civilization will collapse. 20 years after they said the same thing last time?

Well, an interesting theory, for someone who has no clue as to the history or credibility of the sources they reference anyway, but ultimately this isn't even just normal Lucky cherry picking, but RECYCLING cherry picking from people who have already lost credibility on the topic.

SO...

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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