Libya’s path to oil riches remains treacherous

Enormous oil wealth lies thousands of feet below Libya, but whether it will be claimed, and by whom, now that Moammar Gadhafi is gone is very much an open question. Drilling and shipping equipment has been damaged in the Libyan civil war, land mines must be cleared around oil fields, and a legal framework for […]

No Peak Oil to Yergin Who Sees Years of Rising Supplies

Toward the end of “The Quest,” his sprawling book on energy, Daniel Yergin introduces an obscure 19th-century character named Sadi Carnot. The son of one of Napoleon’s ministers of war, Carnot was convinced that an important reason for Britain’s victory over Napoleon was “its mastery of energy, specifically the steam engine.” In 1824 he published […]

Kidding ourselves about future MENA oil production

Recently, the International Energy Agency’s Chief Economist Fatih Birol was quoted as saying, In the next 10 years, more than 90% of the growth in global oil production needs to come from MENA [Middle East and North African] countries. There are major risks if this investment doesn’t come in a timely manner. While I agree that […]

The energy trap

Many Do the Math posts have touched on the inevitable cessation of growth and on the challenge we will face in developing a replacement energy infrastructure once our fossil fuel inheritance is spent. The focus has been on long-term physical constraints, and not on the messy details of our response in the short-term. But our […]

Newsflash: Pipelines Are Everywhere

Like many of you, I have been following the debate over the proposed Keystone XL pipeline that would bring crude from the oil sands of Canada to refineries in the U.S. I am on mailing lists covering both sides of the issue, and based on some of the e-mails I get it seems that many […]

EU: Russia We don’t trust you but give us gas

Peak (Oil) War by political means (16.10.2011.) EU: We don’t trust you but give us gas : http://rt.com/news/want-gas-eu-gazprom-955/ Europe gas and South Stream : http://rt.com/business/news/gas-south-stream-think/ European envy of South Stream puts Trans-Caspian center stage : http://rt.com/business/news/europe-south-stream-caspian-715/ Brussels takes the focus to South Stream : http://rt.com/business/news/south-stream-brussels-gas/ $10 billion Mid-East gas pipeline aims at EU markets : […]

Tech Talk – The future production from Canadian Oil Sand

If one examines the forecast future supply of liquid fuels that the EIA projects in their most recent International Energy Outlook, that for 2011, the agency projects a considerable growth in unconventional supplies of liquid fuels.     EIA projections of future growth in liquid fuel supplies (EIA)  The Oil Drum For North America, the projections […]

China to import Iran gas via Pakistan

Managing Director of the National Iranian Gas Export Company (NIGEC) says Pakistan wants to transfer Iran’s gas and China is eager to import it. “Iran’s advantage over its rival countries (Qatar and Russia) is being situated between two big gas consumption markets, China and Europe,” SHANA quoted Hossein Bidarmaghz as saying. He went on to […]

Iran’s gas output to double within 3 years

Iran’s deputy oil minister says the country is planning to more than double its natural gas production to 1.2 billion cubic meters (cbm) per day in the next three years. “If all phases of South Pars gas field come on stream, the country’s gas production capacity will climb by 700-720 million cbm per day in […]

4 oil majors in $7.1 billion North Sea investment

Four oil companies say they have won British government approval for a 4.5 billion pound ($7.1 billion) investment in developing a major oil field in the North Sea. BP, Shell, ConocoPhillips and Chevron are partners in the plan to install two new bridge-linked platforms in the Clair field, west of the Shetland Islands. Prime Minister […]

Norway raises drill costs alarm

The head of Norway’s oil agency has sounded the alarm over high drilling costs on the country’s continental shelf that are putting a serious restraint on its ability to tap new reserves to reverse a production decline. At the same time, offshore operators are delaying drilling due to factors such as a lack of rig […]

Daniel Yergin Interview: “We certainly are moving past the era of cheap oil”

“The harnessing of energy is what makes possible the world as we know it. But can we bet on that for the future?” That’s the question Pulitzer-Prize winning author Daniel Yergin asks and attempts to answer in his new book The Quest: Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World. Yergin is “cautiously optimistic” about […]

A Slippery Peak – The New Oil Equation

New discoveries have disproved the idea that the world is running out of oil The idea of peak oil caught the world’s imagination a decade ago. Peak oil, the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil extraction is reached, after which the rate of production would get into terminal decline, was supposed […]

Dr Robert Hirsch: Weak World GDP Growth & “Peak Oil”

As we previously forecast, the decline in world oil production is likely to occur in the next 1-4 years, a year having passed since we forecast 2-5 years. Some believe that weak worldwide economic conditions will significantly extend the onset of decline. We believe that the delay will be essentially negligible. Because of the myriad of […]

OPEC’s Arab Members Must Cut Crude Output, Iran’s Khatibi Says

Arab OPEC members that boosted crude exports to make up for reduced supply from Libya need to cut production as the North African nation increases output, Iran OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi said. Certain members should return to the production level they had prior to the Libyan crisis, in line with suggestions from the group’s […]

Oil Production of the Top Three IOCs

The above shows the liquids production of the three largest international oil companies (IOCs), as compiled from their annual reports.  You can see that by and large these companies are about the same size they were 15 years ago, in oil production terms (the partial exception is BP which managed to buy into a Russian […]

Peak Silver: Impacts of a Global Depression, Declining Ore Grades …

The world is about to peak in global silver production.  This will not occur due to a lack of silver to mine, but rather as a result of the peaking of world energy resources, declining ore grades, and a falling Energy Returned On Invested – EROI.  The information below will describe a future world that very few […]

Saudis See No Reason to Raise Oil Output Capacity

Saudi Arabia—A senior oil executive said Saudi Arabia is unlikely to proceed with plans to raise its oil output capacity to 15 million barrels a day, as expansion plans in other producing countries such as Iraq and Brazil should be enough to satisfy world markets. “There is no reason for Saudi Aramco to pursue 15 […]

A Counter Intuitive Look at Crude and Drilling

Before summarizing the offshore rig markets, we would like to take this opportunity to reframe crude oil prices and their predictive signal for future demand. The synopsis is simple: when monthly average oil prices fall over a three month period, historical data indicates a high probability that world demand for oil will be lower six […]

The Energy Glass Is More Than Half Full

A recent comment from a frequent reader got me thinking about the good news that has accumulated on the energy front, even as the rest of the economy has bogged down in pessimism. There’s actually quite a lot of it, though perhaps it has been easy to miss, because most of these developments look like bad […]

North American oil output will hit all-time record by 2016

Maybe Hubbert’s Peak isn’t the tallest mountain after all. North American oil production will hit a new all-time high by 2016 given the current pace of drilling in the U.S. and Canada, according to a study released by an energy research firm this week. U.S. oil production in areas like the Permian Basin, the Eagle Ford, Bakken and […]

North Sea gas production falls 25%

North Sea gas production has slumped by 25% in the second quarter of the year, an alarming increase in the rate of decline that will cut tax revenues and could put more pressure on government to agree controversial shale gas developments. Figures from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) also show a 36% […]

A peak oil Technocrat ignored the power of technology

“Hubbert’s Peak,” says U.S. energy historian Daniel Yergin, “is still not in sight.” This is true: Global oil production is still on the rise with no evident decline any time in this century. We should take a moment to acknowledge this fact. It’s not only that resurgent oil and gas reserves have abruptly extended the […]

Exxon Starts Fracking Hard In Eastern Europe

Exxon Mobil has been expanding its footprint on shale exploration efforts in Europe. The company recently inked a pact with Ukrainian state oil and gas firm Naftogaz to explore and develop Ukraine’s shale gas reserves. [1] The move comes on the back of Exxon completing its first hydraulic fracturing operation in neighboring country Poland last […]

The US NGL business wrestles what to do with its gusher of supply

There’s a Seinfeld episode where Jerry’s parents cancel dinner at the Costanzas, for a very simple reason: they can’t stand them. Mrs. Costanza is then seen to be fretting, “What am I going to do with all this paella?” It’s the Spanish dish she made for the big event. As people observe the US NGL […]

Brazil, Canada, Iraq, Australia to have largest production increases

The projects in three countries with the highest increase in oil production are Brazil, Canada, and Iraq, while Australia has the projects with the highest increase in gas production, according to OGJ’s review of major projects listed in the accompanying table. The table lists projects in 44 countries that are in the construction or planning […]

Chevron launches solar enhanced oil recovery project

Chevron Technology Ventures launched a demonstration project at Coalinga field in Kern County, Calif., to test the viability of using solar energy to enhance heavy oil production. The project uses 7,644 mirrors to focus the sun’s energy onto a solar boiler on top of a 327-ft tower. The produced steam then is injected into wells […]

How North Dakota Became Saudi Arabia

Harold Hamm, the Oklahoma-based founder and CEO of Continental Resources, the 14th-largest oil company in America, is a man who thinks big. He came to Washington last month to spread a needed message of economic optimism: With the right set of national energy policies, the United States could be “completely energy independent by the end […]

Gail Tverberg: Is Yergin Correct about Oil Supply?

On Monday after the WSJ ran Daniel Yergin’s essay, There Will Be Oil, I submitted this rebuttal.  They ask to have the exclusive right to any submission for 10 days. At this point, they have neither printed it nor responded back, so it seems OK for me to post it here instead. Saturday, September 17, […]

N. American oil output could top 40-year-old peak

North America appears headed for an oil renaissance, with crude production expected to hit an all-time high by 2016 given the current pace of drilling in the U.S. and Canada, according to a study released by an energy research firm this week. U.S. oil production in areas including West Texas’ Permian Basin, South Texas’ Eagle Ford […]

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