Peak What?

I’ve been maintaining “radio silence” for a while—mostly on account of an overflowing plate and several new new hats I wear. All the while, I have received a steady stream of e-mail thanking me for Do the Math, asking if I’m still alive, and if so: what do I make of the changing oil situation? […]

Get Ready for $10 Oil

At about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107. They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20. Here’s why. U.S. economic growth has averaged 2.3 percent a year since the recovery started in mid-2009. That’s about half the rate […]

Beyond the Market-State

In an era of politics characterised by unconstrained corporate lobbying, a well-oiled ‘revolving door’ between industry and government, and an endless stream of campaign contributions from dirty oil and other lucrative industries, is the long-championed ideal of a truly democratic state now a lost cause? Should concerned citizens and activists turn their attention instead to […]

Why The Price Of Oil Is More Likely To Fall To 20 Rather Than Rise To 80

This is just the beginning of the oil crisis.  Over the past couple of weeks, the price of U.S. oil has rallied back above 50 dollars a barrel.  In fact, as I write this, it is sitting at $52.93.  But this rally will not last.  In fact, analysts at the big banks are warning that […]

How Much Water You Use May Surprise You

Do you know how much water you use? I’m not talking about the amount on your monthly water bill. I’m talking about how much water do you really use as a result of the products you eat, wear or  use every day. I didn’t either before reading a new book titled “Your Water Footprint: The […]

The crash in the price of oil may change the oil market – a look at the IEA’s “Oil Medium-Term Market Report 2015”

On Tuesday 10 February at 13:00 GMT the IEA released its “Oil Medium-Term Market Report 2015”. The day before the release I was contacted by Jens Ergon at Sveriges Television (“Sweden’s Television, SVT) who wanted to get my opinion on the report. I had a number of hours to read through the 140 pages of […]

Peak Oil and Scotland

As it is a finite resource, by definition, we will run out of Oil at some point. Around the year 2000, Scotland (and the UK Continental Shelf as a whole) reached “peak oil” (Oil and Gas UK 2014).  So what is “peak oil”, and what are the implications of it? Peak oil is the point […]

The World Has Reached Peak Chicken, Peak Rice, And Peak Milk

We still haven’t reached peak oil. But peak milk happened in 2004, peak soybeans in 2009, and peak chicken in 2006. Rice peaked in 1988. A new study published in Ecology and Society explains that 21 key resources that humans rely on—mostly food—have already passed their peak rate of production. “Peak,” in this case, doesn’t […]

Global Oil Production And Consumption In Balance

The EIA (US Energy Information Agency) reported global oil Production/Consumption. The data shows a rise in Consumption and a decline in Production. This should be no surprise to anyone. Even though prior month’s revisions show November 2014 as having peak Production (earlier reported as October 2014), within the range of revision, Supply/Demand is very much […]

Peak Nothing. Goldman Sachs Advisor Says “Too Much Physical Oil”

Goldman Sachs executive Gary Cohn says we could see so much oil, there would be no way to physically store it all, resulting in falling prices, at least in certain locational areas. Further destabilization across the globe could, logically, follow. Cohn told Bloomberg News: “I think the oil market is trying to figure out an […]

Homo Economicus: An Endangered Species

The modern world is full of myths. I’m not talking about Greek legends or medieval lore, but the shared stories and constructs underpinning our beliefs and behaviours. We need myths—they help us understand and feel in control of our world—but when they blind us to reality, they can serve as obstacles to change. As long […]

Organic Farming Isn’t Just a Bougie Ideal

The term “organic agriculture” tends to evoke the image of a verdant, small-scale farm, its friendly, overalls-clad caretaker kneeling among his rows of leafy chard to individually pluck them of pests. A delicate and labor-intensive operation that might produce a handful of lovely CSA baskets, but probably won’t go far towards feeding large numbers of […]

Why rig cuts won’t save oil

The sharp drop in U.S. oil rig counts has helped lift crude prices off their lows, but it won’t slow production or alleviate oversupply, Goldman Sachs said. “The decline in the U.S. rig count likely remains well short of the level required to slow U.S. shale oil production to levels consistent with a balanced global […]

Michael Lynch: Forecasts Of Oil Price Bottom And Recovery

For oil price forecasters, it is all but mandatory to start with self-deprecating humor, because the track record is so bad. Late 2013, surveys showed predictions for 2014 of $104 per barrel for Brent. Citi’s forecast of a significant drop raised eyebrows, in fact. Now, one reporter noted that expert forecasts range from $30-200, which […]

Monsanto: Sustainable agriculture a smart choice to feed world population

Clear and serious impacts of rapid population growth and climate change are causing nations worldwide to think increasingly about sustainable agriculture. The question of how the world can produce enough food in 2050 with the current arable area was discussed by agricultural experts and students at a seminar on Wednesday at Ho Chi Minh City […]

There Is No Peak Oil–But We Are Approaching Peak Low-Cost Oil

The collapse in oil prices over the last seven months looks to destabilize the world stage by redirecting over $1.8 trillion in spending if current prices hold. While worldwide demand exceeds 92 million barrels per day, the drop in price from over $105 this past summer to under $50 translates into sizable savings for the average American. Who […]

Charts showing the long-term GDP-energy tie

In Part 1 of this series, I talked about why cheap fuels act to create economic growth. In this post, we will look at some supporting data showing how this connection works. The data is over a very long time period–some of it going back to the Year 1 C. E. We know that there […]

Peak Food is the world’s No. 1 ticking time bomb

Global food poisoning? Yes, We’re maxing out. Forget Peak Oil. We’re maxing-out on Peak Food. Billions go hungry. We’re poisoning our future, That’s why Cargill, America’s largest private food company, is warning us: about water, seeds, fertilizers, diseases, pesticides, droughts. You name it. Everything impacts the food supply. Wake up America, it’s worse than you […]

The World After Cheap Oil

The World After Cheap Oil By Rauli Partanen, Harri Paloheimo and Heikki Waris 250 pp. Routledge – Oct. 2014. $59.95. Toward the end of this book, its authors make an astute, if self-deprecating, observation about its potential merits. They’ve been discussing how innate human biases cause us to make cognitive errors when trying to make […]

Cheap Oil Does Not Mean That Peak Oil Is a Myth

Peak oil is a fundamental tenet of the Transition Towns concept, but the current return of “cheap oil” has muddied the waters about how to discuss it. At a recent meeting of Transition Town Reading (U.K.), we discussed the prevailing low oil price, and the group asked me to put together some salient points on […]

OPEC leader: Oil could shoot back to $200

Right now the oil market is totally focused on finding a bottom for oil prices. However, according to OPEC’s Secretary-General Abdulla al-Badri we’ve already hit bottom. Not only that, but he sees a real possibility that oil prices could explode higher to upwards of $200 per barrel in the future. He’s far from the only […]

Orlov: No escape

Quite a few of those currently inhabiting the belly of the decrepit and senile beast of western industrial civilization are experiencing an extreme sense of unease about what the future is likely to bring. But living with such a sensation is less than pleasant. In some other, perhaps less civilized language, the resolution to this […]

Peak Affordable Oil

It is quite obvious that high oil prices in the last 3-4 years. Fig 1: WTI spot prices to 23/1/2015 http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=rwtc&f=w have reduced demand for oil, as shown in this IEA graph for OECD countries: Fig 2: Oil demand in OECD countries Oct 2011 – Sep 2014 https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/charts/ So which oil is affordable? Let’s use […]

OPEC Puppets and Canada Give Away Their Oil

  The world is running out of oil. Peak Oil is a reality, all that is open to debate is how fast production will drop off, and how quickly the world will simply run out of oil. The lack of certainty is due to the fact that (as with everything else) we can’t trust the […]

How Much Will Low Oil Prices Stimulate Demand?

Since weak oil demand growth is a major ingredient in the current oil price crash, higher demand stimulated by low prices could be a moderating factor. While US demand has risen since prices fell, there are several reasons why the global response may be slower to appear and less dramatic. One of the main factors […]

Special Report: Natural gas

As new technology drives a natural gas revolution in America, our correspondents discuss the wider economic impact. Senior Commodities Broker Kevin Craney talks about the snow storm hitting the East Coast and what effects it might have on natural gas

Commodities crash: Bad news for the world economy, but is anyone listening?

Reading the general run of financial headlines might lead one to believe that price declines in those commodities which are highly sensitive to economic conditions such as iron ore, copper, oil, natural gas, coal, and lumber are good on their face. Obviously, the declines aren’t good for those who sell these commodities. But, those of […]

“Paranoia” Driving Wealthy to Buy Homes in New Zealand

Rich American clients concerned about personal safety, global crises Paranoia” is one of the primary factors motivating the wealthy to purchase secret getaways in New Zealand, according to one realtor, with concerns about personal safety and global crises driving the search to acquire a safe haven in a remote location. During the Davos Economic Forum, […]

Oil Cash Waning, Venezuelan Shelves Lie Bare

  CARACAS, Venezuela — Mary Noriega heard there would be chicken. She hated being herded “like cattle,” she said, standing for hours in a line of more than 1,500 people hoping to buy food, as soldiers with side arms checked identification cards to make sure no one tried to buy basic items more than once […]

Have we reached ‘peak food’? Shortages loom as global production rates slow

The world has entered an era of “peak food” production with an array of staples from corn and rice to wheat and chicken slowing in growth – with potentially disastrous consequences for feeding the planet. New research finds that the supply of 21 staples, such as eggs, meat, vegetables and soybeans is already beginning to […]

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