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Page added on February 25, 2019
The Inevitable Death of Natural Gas as a ‘Bridge Fuel’
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti recently announced the city is scrapping plans for a multi-billion-dollar update to three natural gas power plants, instead choosing to invest in renewable energy and storage.
“This is the beginning of the end of natural gas in Los Angeles,” said Mayor Garcetti. “The climate crisis demands that we move more quickly to end dependence on fossil fuel, and that’s what today is all about.”
Last year America’s carbon emissions rose over 3 percent, despite coal plants closing and being replaced in part by natural gas, the much-touted “bridge fuel” and “cleaner” fossil fuel alternative.
As a new series from the sustainability think tank the Sightline Institute points out, the idea of natural gas as a bridge fuel is “alarmingly deceptive.”
But signs are emerging that, despite oil and gas industry efforts to shirk blame for the climate crisis and promote gas as part of a “lower-carbon fuel mix,” the illusion of natural gas as a bridge fuel is starting to crumble.
Market Forces
While Mayor Garcetti may be right in predicting the downward slide of natural gas for power generation, climate concerns won’t drive that change — just simple economics.
It wasn’t long ago that President Obama — who was accused of starting “the war on coal” because of air quality regulations — was touting the benefits of “clean coal.” But automation in the coal mining industry and competition with cheaper renewables and natural gas began taking a toll on coal.
The struggling coal industry thought things were looking up when Donald Trump was elected, with his promise to bring back coal.
But he has failed.
Most recently, President Trump tweeted that the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) should vote to keep two old coal power plants open.
Coal is an important part of our electricity generation mix and @TVAnews should give serious consideration to all factors before voting to close viable power plants, like Paradise #3 in Kentucky!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 11, 2019
Nevertheless, the TVA voted to close those coal plants and said it expected the move would save a billion dollars in future costs. Burning coal for electricity is increasingly incompatible with profits.
Gary Jones, the economic development director for the Kentucky county where one of the closing coal plants is located, acknowledged this economic reality in his comments to The Wall Street Journal, saying: “We definitely don’t blame him [Trump] for this. It’s the market.”
Exactly. Coal can’t compete with the historically low and unsustainable price of natural gas in the U.S. when it comes to power generation. And it can’t compete with renewables either.
In July 2016 I wrote the following about a presentation on coal at the annual Energy Information Administration conference:
“The presentation on India ended with the following conclusion: Cheap coal remains critical to Indian economic growth.”
India was all-in on coal for the next few decades, and yet in the two and half years since I wrote that, renewables have been hurting India’s coal industry. Why?
Just like in Tennessee and Kentucky, it’s the market. But it isn’t natural gas taking down coal in India, it’s wind and solar, according to a recent Reuters column by Clyde Russell:
“… the main reason coal may battle to fuel India’s future energy needs is that it’s simply becoming too expensive relative to renewable energy alternatives such as wind and solar.”
A coal power plant in Datteln, Germany. Credit: Cropped from image by Arnold Paul, CC BY–SA 2.5
A similar situation is unfolding in Germany, which aims to close all its coal plants in the next 20 years. The natural gas industry initially saw this as an opportunity to slide in and replace coal, but the lower cost of renewable energy may lead Germany to skip the “bridge” offered by natural gas and move straight to renewables, which already provide over 40 percent of the nation’s power.
According to Bloomberg, a large German energy company’s study predicts natural gas use in Germany (and other European countries) will likely decline. Why?
“… the cost of solar and battery systems will fall far enough that renewables may become the most cost-effective way to generate new flows of electricity.”
Compare that to 2014, when industry giants were trash-talking the future of renewables in Europe. At an energy industry conference, Paolo Scaroni, the CEO of oil and gas company Eni, said that Europe is realizing that renewables are “more a problem than a solution,” and Siemens CEO Joe Kaeser said, “Using solar panels in Germany is like growing pineapples in Alaska.”
Now renewables are the solution. And that certainly poses a problem for the fossil fuel industry.
Coal is dead. Soon enough, natural gas will also be dead. The economics alone will drive the world to wind & solar.
An appropriate recognition of the social cost of CO2 & methane will greatly accelerate this transition. https://t.co/lZUF8iXhmr
— Robert Howarth (@howarth_cornell) February 20, 2019
Building new natural gas infrastructure looks like a bad investment right now to cities like LA when renewables are already competitive. Natural gas seems poised to join coal as another fuel that just couldn’t compete with renewables.
Here are more reasons why that’s the case.
Natural Gas Prices Headed Up, Renewables Down
A Nordex wind turbine parts manufacturing facility in Jonesboro, Arkansas. Credit: Department of Energy, public domain
The price of renewable energy and storage is trending downward while the already super-low price of natural gas — especially in the U.S. — has nowhere to go but up.
While India and Germany already are finding renewables cheaper than fossil fuels for power generation with today’s technology, further advances in research and development as well as manufacturing will continue making renewables even more competitive.
MIT professor and former CIA director John Deutch recently presented a study entitled, “Demonstrating Near Carbon Free Electricity Generation from Renewables and Storage,” at a Stanford University energy seminar, in which he said:
“You are going to find yourselves very shortly in a situation where you have storage alternatives that, when matched with existing solar and wind generating systems, will be able to meet load extremely effectively.”
Meeting power demand effectively and as the lowest-cost producer — using fuel sources (wind and sun) that are free.
According to Greentech Media, energy industry analysts at Wood Mackenzie say the combination of renewables with battery systems can currently replace approximately two-thirds of U.S. natural gas turbines — right now. Estimates predict the cost of storage alone could drop 80 percent by 2040.
Who wants to own a gas power plant in 2040 knowing that?
Meanwhile, the cost of producing power with natural gas is dependent on the cost of the fuel.
Right now, gas companies are losing money — and have been for some time — at the current price of natural gas in America. As DeSmog has detailed, the fracking industry, which is responsible for most U.S. natural gas production, has been on a decade-long, money-losing streak.
The industry has proven unable to turn a profit at current natural gas prices. So, unless Wall Street wants to lose billions more subsidizing the natural gas industry, prices will have to go up at some point. And when natural gas prices go up, residential electricity rates go up.
Additionally, if all of the planned infrastructure gets built to export U.S. natural gas in liquid form (known as liquefied natural gas, or LNG), prices for natural gas are very likely to rise. This is the industry’s survival plan for the future. However, the higher prices natural gas producers need possibly will kill off one of the industry’s main markets.
☀️ Solar is beginning to outshine other forms of energy in Alberta. Three new #solar farms—which will provide the provincial government with 55% of its electricity needs—were contracted at a lower cost than natural gas. #abpoli https://t.co/NhwN4z9S6H pic.twitter.com/egTS6qPq6W
— Clean Energy Canada (@cleanenergycan) February 19, 2019
Tom DiCapua, managing director of wholesale energy services at Con Edison Energy, recently summed up the situation to Reuters: “As LNG exports increase, so will future gas prices.”
When it comes to the long-term economics of power generation, it isn’t a fair fight. There is no clear way natural gas can compete with renewables on an economic basis in the coming decades. Which is why the oil and gas industry works so hard to convince people gas is clean and cheap.
It knows it can’t win a fair fight.
Structural Financial Issues With Natural Gas Industry
In a July 2017 Forbes column, energy industry expert Art Berman laid out the details of the structural problems in the finances of natural gas production. Since then, things have only gotten worse as huge volumes of gas are pumped simultaneously out of Permian oil wells in Texas and New Mexico.
However, even before the huge ramp-up in the Permian, Berman made the case that the natural gas industry was producing record amounts of gas at prices in which companies could not make money. How could they do that?
Wall Street’s coffers.
As Berman explained, “Credit markets have been willing to support unprofitable shale gas drilling since the 2008 Financial Collapse.”
Of course, now credit markets are not as willing to loan money to shale companies to produce gas at a loss. Berman estimated that natural gas producers needed prices of $4 per million Btu of gas to break even. Prices are below $4, and the average price has been below that for years.
Not looking good for natural gas.
If You Can’t Beat Them, Join Them
In 2017, workers clean Heliostats at the Ivanpah Solar Project, a concentrated solar energy project. Credit: Dennis Shroeder, National Renewable Energy Lab, CC BY–NC–ND 2.0
Similar to the fossil fuel industry, electric utilities also have fought renewable energy options. In 2016, utilities in Florida spent almost $30 million to limit residents’ ability to install rooftop solar — perceived as a direct threat to the utilities.
Much like coal’s prospects in India, a couple of years has made a huge difference, however. In February, the Christian Science Monitor reported that utilities in Florida have begun embracing utility-owned solar farms. And while utilities have still been fighting residential rooftop solar, it’s started making gains in Florida anyway — despite regulatory restrictions.
“The utilities are putting out solar like you wouldn’t believe,” said James Fenton, director of the University of Central Florida’s Florida Solar Energy Center.
The utilities didn’t suddenly decide the climate was more important than profits. They just see a better path to profits with solar, as long as they can be in control of it, at least.
“It is simply undeniable now that this is often the lowest cost source of generation,” Ethan Zindler, the head of U.S. research at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, told the Monitor. “So you can pat yourself on the back for doing something environmentally conscious, but at the same time, you’re also actually doing something to procure power at the lowest cost for your customers.”
Arizona Public Service (APS) is the largest investor-owned utility in the state, and it spent big money to help defeat a 2018 ballot initiative that would have required Arizona get 50 percent of its electricity from renewables by 2030.
However, because APS is “investor-owned,” the utility is now investing in solar and claims that solar plus batteries are an even cheaper option than natural gas power plants for peak power. The need for so-called gas “peaker plants” that can quickly ramp up electricity in times of peak demand is one of the energy industry’s favorite arguments against renewables and for natural gas.
But because investors want to make money, APS is moving forward with solar and batteries.
“This is a head-to-head [economic] comparison where we’re trying to select the best resources to meet our customers’ needs,” Brad Albert, vice president of resource management for APS, told Greentech Media.
In that head-to-head comparison, natural gas lost.
Historic shift: @APSfyi making big investment in batteries to capture surplus solar energy, which it says is now the most cost effective way to meet energy demand in the Southwest. https://t.co/qHv4H2dUbt
— Ryan Randazzo (@utilityreporter) February 21, 2019
As usual with the oil and gas industry, it’s best to watch what it does, not what it says.
The Permian Basin is the heart of the shale oil fracking boom in the U.S. and is producing so much natural gas along with the oil that the price of natural gas there actually went negative in 2018.
It takes a lot of electricity to power the fracking boom. And the Permian needs more. But is the industry taking advantage of all that cheap natural gas to produce that power?
Nope. Plans for new electricity generation in the heart of the Permian oil and gas region include a solar farm and the world’s largest battery.
Renewables have become the low-cost source for new power generation much faster than most anticipated, which is great news for the climate.
Natural gas, with its potent globe-warming effect, is a climate-killer. And a money loser.
If the lobbyists don’t win and the free market is allowed to work for power generation, natural gas — like coal — looks less and less like a “bridge fuel” and more like a fuel of the past.
264 Comments on "The Inevitable Death of Natural Gas as a ‘Bridge Fuel’"
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 12:42 pm
Clogg
Bibi and Israel are the leaders of your populist movement..That is why Bibi went to Brazil recently to welcome the new president..And I dont hear your alt right ever criticizing Israel? Never once huh? Only a democratic muslim woman in America has had the balls to do that..Ben Shapiro (rabid Jew) is a hero to the right and former editor at Bretbart..
Davy on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 12:43 pm
Juanpee, you realize your dumbass mitch sock puppet talks exactly like boney joe, dumbass. This is the problem with you having 6 different socks you can’t keep them straight.
Davy on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 12:46 pm
“Great points..I agree..But unfortunately you can’t reason with people who are morally and intellectually bankrupt like the republicans and davy and company..”
More like you can’t reason with extremist liberals or lunatic frauds like juanpee (mitch). I am voting for Tulsi if she makes it that far. Last I looked she is a Dem.
Cloggie on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 12:59 pm
Wall Street Journal discovers electric clothing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSau7edqlEY
Ideal for poor people. Put the thermostat on 14C and put your jacket and trousers on. Nobody needs to know.
Sissyfuss on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 1:35 pm
As the world accelerates only the reverent will keep their eyes focused on what to do.
FuelShortageComingYouAreDeadNigger on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 1:38 pm
There is no reason for Whites from none Anglo-Saxon nation (Romania, Russia, and so on)to move to any Anglo-Saxon nation anymore (Canada, US, UK, Austalie,..). Anglo-saxon nation are now third world countries. Third world shit skin have no reason to leave Angle-Saxon nation because there are now shit hole. Why leave a shit hole for another shit hole. Brown people will stay in Anglo-Saxon nation because they are accustom to live in shit hole nation anyway. We are seeing the end of the western heritage (Inventions, technologies and social cohesion) and philosophy.
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 1:43 pm
Davy
You are voting for Tulsi? You are a conspiratorial loon..
Time to put you in a home you uneducated twat..
Davy on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 1:51 pm
I say we should give socialism a chance MOB. Free market capitalism obviously isn’t working.
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 1:54 pm
Davy
Did you see Tulsi is now Assad is a dictator who gassed his own people..A total sell out..
She would be the biggest war mongering kunt president ever..But I know how you right wingers love your war..
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 2:10 pm
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to be indicted on corruption charges
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/israel-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-indicted-on-bribe-and-fraud-charges.html?__source=facebook%7Cmain&fbclid=IwAR1BBkIqj0GZZzacMADhvkU0D6Dci9SRu8JhSsl3yNFt-ZoOVkwQNWtnRJc
FuelShortageComingYouAreDeadNigger on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 2:20 pm
It is one corrupt leader after another. We have Bengamin and now we also have Trudeau entangle in a corruption scandal. It is the same in the so called developed nations world. One corrupt lead after another.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_wfLmWdJis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6XqGFOG3v8
The worst part and we have no good leader to replace him, same has UK same as US
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 2:20 pm
Oil peak likely by 2025, according to the International Energy Agency
https://tinyurl.com/y5dr5hhd
Cloggie on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 2:29 pm
“Oil peak likely by 2025, according to the International Energy Agency”
That’s not at all what they are saying. Don’t tell me you don’t speak French either ?! God, are you stupid.
“Pour empêcher un déclin de la production mondiale de pétrole d’ici à 2025, l’Agence internationale de l’énergie (AIE) annonce qu’il faudrait multiplier par 2 ou 3 les extractions de pétrole de schiste. Or aux Etats-Unis, le pétrole de schiste continue à perdre de l’argent…”
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 2:47 pm
Clogg
Google translates to English..
First paragraph;
“Oil peak likely by 2025, according to the International Energy Agency
To prevent a decline in global oil production by 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is announcing that shale oil extractions should be multiplied by 2 or 3 times. But in the United States, shale oil continues to lose money …
The consequences of the supply crunch envisaged by the IEA promise to be particularly harsh for Europe. Wake up?
http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2019/02/04/pic-petrolier-probable-dici-a-2025-selon-lagence-internationale-de-lenergie/#more-12827
Here you want an English version..
Peak Oil & Drastic Oil Shortages Imminent, Says IEA
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/22/peak-oil-drastic-oil-shortages-imminent-says-iea/
Time to wake up Clogg..I told you Europe is fucked soon..You can stay there and go down with the ship or you can hit the highway and scramble!
Choose wisely!
I’ll be rooting for ya!
LOL
FuelShorgageComingYouAreDeadNigger on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 2:57 pm
I sometimes comment and read this blog to know about the state of Canada housing bubble. Canadian housing bubble has burst, so is the one in Australian and New Zeland.
The bursting if the Canadian housing bubble is starting to affect Canadian banking system.
Follwing comment was taken from this block
https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/only-1-in-10-new-homes-in-greater-toronto-were-bought-last-month/
“Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) & Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM). Two of Canada’s biggest lenders reported first quarter earnings which fell short of market forecasts.”
So that’s 5 out of 6 banks that reported this week have missed earnings. Laurentian Bank was down 9% yesterday…
Cloggie on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 3:16 pm
Daimler and BMW to cooperate in autonomous driving:
https://www.daimler.com/innovation/case/autonomous/bmw-daimler-cooperation.html
JuanP identity theft on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 3:19 pm
Not Davy
Davy on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 1:51 pm
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 3:35 pm
Clogg
Autonomous driving LOL
They can’t see the road in the rain, snow or fog..And they can’t make left turns..
You are a pseudo nerd..
Stick to the hate and watching videos of your dear leader fat man Alex Jones..Tech isn’t for right wingers..
LOL
Mitch on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 3:58 pm
Notice Davy avoids responding to the message so he always attacks the messenger.
Davy on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 4:17 pm
juanpee you are a fraud and a lie. Mitch is your boney joe personality. You are confusing your socks.
Davy on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 4:25 pm
Y’all might think this sounds crazy, but I’m positive JuanP is using my goat to spy on me. It’s been looking at me kind of funny lately. I might have to get my neighbour Hank Junior to put it down.
Juanpee identity theft on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 4:28 pm
Not Davy
Davy on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 4:25 pm
Antius on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 4:41 pm
Davy and JuanP, FFS give it a rest! Make love, not war.
https://tinyurl.com/yxzbb55f
Davy on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 6:30 pm
I am the boards sock-detective Antass ok? I may not be a very good one, but I am one nonetheless. I am taking an on-line course in sock-puppetry, and the instructor tells me I am the top student currently enrolled with them. One of the things I learned while taking the course, was, anyone that disagrees with you, is likely a sock-puppet. So, if in doubt, accuse everyone you don’t like as a sock-puppet. Or a liberal. Or a dumbass. Or an extremist. Or an extremist liberal sock-puppet dumbass. That is only for us more advanced sock-detectives.
(I got an ‘A+’ on that part of the course).
Not trying to toot my own horn, but I did.
JuanPee identity theft on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 6:48 pm
Not Davy
Davy on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 6:30 pm
The real juanpee on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 6:49 pm
THE REAL JUANPEEE IS A FRAUD
JuanP on Thu, 30th Jun 2016 4:56 pm
I think I could use my antisocial, psychopathic, sociopathic skills to convince people to vote for Trump. I can be very convincing when I want and I am excellent at manipulating people.
JuanP on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 5:40 am
…then you simply have a higher opinion of humans than I do. But what can I do? I am after all an admitted antisocial misanthrope. I just think most people suck!
JuanP on Fri, 12th Aug 2016 10:58 am
I stopped caring about humanity’s future a long time ago once I realized it was a waste of my time and energy. Now I think that it would be best for life on Earth if we ceased to exist as a species.
JuanP on Wed, 14th Sep 2016 9:59 pm
I struggle with the fact that I belong to the same species; I find myself emotionally and intellectually incapable of accepting the fact. That is why I consider myself a sui generis individual rather than a human animal.
JuanP on Sun, 26th Jun 2016 12:22 am
As far as I am concerned human beings are a bunch of arrogant and retarded ignorant fools and they deserve what’s coming. Call me selfish if you want, I don’t give a fuck!
JuanP on Fri, 15th May 2015 11:21 am
I did therapy for over a decade and most of it was a waste, but I had one therapist for a year who understood my issues and that helped, though I am still thoroughly screwed up.
JuanP on Tue, 22nd Dec 2015 6:57 am
They make me smile and happy and give me a brief respite from my cronic and acute depression.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 8:19 pm
I have suffered from cronic and acute clinical depression for most of my life, but I wouldn’t have it any other way.
JuanP on Mon, 23rd May 2016 8:53 am
I was just telling my wife yesterday that I would very willingly give my arms, legs, tongue, eyes, ears, nuts, and dick to experience life like normal people do for just one hour to know what it feels like. I have been a seriously depressed realist since I have a memory. My first memory of my life is of leaning against a tree alone in my kindergarten’s playground looking at all the other kids playing, thinking how stupid their behavior was, and wondering why I wasn’t like them. I basically don’t interact with normal people anymore. They have nothing to offer me and I don’t want to give them anything.
I am back, bitches! I just got back from a surfing vacation in Costa Rica. I am recharged and refreshed, and ready to continue fucking with the Exceptionalist and his multiple personalities for the foreseeable future.
Mitch on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 8:26 pm
There is nothing fraudulent about honesty Davy.
You should try it sometime.
Davy on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 8:56 pm
I am honest juanmitch. I honestly think you are a stupid dirty sock puppet. And it is my job to clean up your dirty sock games. I will do everything in my power to see you deported back to whatever dirty part of Mexico you came from, dumbass.
And whoever keeps posting fake messages saying Not Davy, that is not me. He is a FRAUD.
makati1 on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 9:31 pm
Davy is about to go postal! Here are some free mental health clinics in St.Louis.
https://www.yellowpages.com/saint-louis-mo/free-mental-health-services
Or maybe you need this one?
https://www.yellowpages.com/swansea-il/mip/gateway-foundation-alcohol-drug-treatment-centers-swansea-481161018?lid=481161018
11:30 AM here. Enjoying my March SS payment.
Sunny and a warm 83F. Going shopping. Later!
Cloggie on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 9:39 pm
There is no reason for Whites from none Anglo-Saxon nation (Romania, Russia, and so on) to move to any Anglo-Saxon nation anymore (Canada, US, UK, Austalie,..). Anglo-saxon nation are now third world countries. Third world shit skin have no reason to leave Angle-Saxon nation because there are now shit hole.
Indeed, it is decades ago that Europeans considered moving to Anglo countries, after the European world had been destroyed, I’m sorry, I meant to say “liberated”, courtesy Anglos and Soviets.
Those were the days that tens of thousands of Dutch moved to either Canada, Australia or Nieuw Zeeland (America not so much). Here the Dutch movie “Bride Flight”…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxcNbC64g40
…about several Dutch couples moving to Australia.
Expect the reverse to happen in the upcoming destruction/implosion of the globalist-Anglo world. When it will become clear to all that, despite what the likes of George Soros claim to be true, every civilization worth that name is race-based and that what the Soros-bunch has in store for us is a zoo, rather than a civilization. Everybody owned by an Anglo-Zionist oligarch as an “economic resource”. Thanks, but no thanks, George.
Expect Australia and New Zealand to change owner again (to become Chinese) and expect North-America to balkanize and Europe to become “pretty right-wing”.
It’s going to be messy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-Uuqv3kogc
Cloggie on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 10:04 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ya2eOn_gbg
Member of Congress Maxine Waters calling for violence against officials of the Trump government.
The EU (500m), Slavic world (200m) and Chinese (1300m) should take note of that and together plan for a world after empire and divide the Anglo loot among themselves, a bit of a follow-up of Yalta.
https://i.imgur.com/KL5Ek0o.jpg
Yalta-1945, as we all remember, was the crowning of the work started in 1933, when quietly, behind the scenes US, UK-war party around half-American Churchill and USSR globalists, began to plan for the destruction of the European world, incl the British empire. In 1945 it was mission accomplished:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yalta_Conference
Now it is 2019 and the geopolitical cards are going to be dealt anew.
makati1 on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 10:05 pm
Cloggie, I agree with your comment that NZ and Australia will change sides when they see the US collapse. China is their neighbor and likely to be their biggest export destination in the future. Interesting to watch the US disintegrate as it isolates itself. Go Trump!
Cloggie on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 10:08 pm
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/28/asia/okinawa-base-referendum-intl/index.html
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/eu-japan-economic-partnership-agreement/
Expect Japan to be an ally of the European world, “after the break””, not a Chinese satellite.
#AxisDoneRight
Cloggie on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 10:20 pm
British politics finally zeroing in on a yes-deal Brexit:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6758857/Brexiteer-Tory-MPs-Mays-revised-Brexit-deal-sets-timetable-quit.html
“Brexiteer Tory MPs will back Theresa May’s revised Brexit deal… IF she sets timetable for when she will quit as PM”
Good. Britain will remain a European economic satellite, while gaining some geopolitical freedom. Let the English (British?) “do” (administer) Anglo-Canada, as well as New England, “after the Break”. Quebec goes back to France…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XasQu5YQFUM
…while PBM does the Heartland. The Soros bunch can have New York.
End good, all good.
makati1 on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 11:05 pm
Disagree with you on the Japan-Europe idea Cloggie. Once again, it will be trading partners that decide, not ideology. When the SHTF Japan will be 3rd world along with Europe. It will need Asia, not Europe. Too far away. Europe has nothing Japan needs. The US market will be gone or so small that it will not matter.
Ten of the top 15 countries that trade with Japan are Asian with over 60% of trade. Asia is growing. The market there is growing. the Western markets are contracting. That is the future.
The Western economies are contracting already, if true numbers were shown. The printing presses are going to blow up and end the fake economies in the next few years. The US will lead the parade to debtor’s prison, followed by Japan and the EU. Wait and see.
NathanPhillipsAKAfmr-paultard on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 11:22 pm
makato aswane u r losing ur mind
too much time alone pitty
makati1 on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 11:43 pm
Retard, are you talking about yourself? Obviously. Maybe you are in some psychiatric ward? LMAO
Mitch on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 12:52 am
@ NathanPhillipsAKAfmr-paultard
Fuck off davy. Go away.
Cloggie on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 2:01 am
When the SHTF Japan will be 3rd world along with Europe.
Japan will never become “third world”. Only those countries who open up their borders for third world immigrants, become third world, with America being the prime example.
Japan could return to its Samurai culture, as Kunstler suggested:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2012/04/23/japan-to-become-neo-medieval/
But I no longer regard Kunstler as the infallible oracle I once did. Fortunately you still have me around for infallible predictions.lol
It is very well possible, nay even desirable, that industrial civilization will shift down a gear or two. But I do not believe in a total crash of industrial civilization, certainly not in Japan, China, Europe or (white) America. The shtf will be the crash of empire, subsequent de-dollarization and the refactoring of the world into an identitarian, multipolar one, based on race, religion and “ancient civilizations”.
Antius on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 3:14 am
In spite of it’s problems, Japan has a lot of hard manufacturing industry and a huge swathe of knowledge supporting it. If the SHTF, they have plenty to trade. Germany has the same sound economic foundations.
These economies will still face problems, but not to the same extent as service economies that are literally built on hot air and have few globally tradable goods. If you want to do well in this world, ultimately you need to make something that someone else wants to buy and pay real money for. In terms of global trade, that means manufactured goods, especially high-tech manufactured goods. Manufacturing industries pay good wages to lots of people in a way that service industry dose not. Wages pay taxes.
Antius on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 3:46 am
One of the best ‘economics’ books ever written.
http://tinyurl.com/y6zzvfjm
This should be required reading for anyone with political aspirations or pretensions.
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 4:17 am
The only places collapsing over the next decade are Europe, and Asia..
The soviet union collapsed in two years from an oil shortage..So there is no reason to assume it will any different for Europe and Asia..
The US is turning into a shit show but its been through much, much worse and survived..As long as the supermarket shelves are full and the welfare checks keep going out all is good in most american cities..I wish I could say the same about whats going to hit Europe and Asia soon..It aint going to be pretty..
All we will pick up any crumbs left over from their collapse..I have a feeling thousands of factories are going to be coming back to America..And will take BMW and all the other great German ones as well too..Sorry Clogg..Oops we did it again..
LOL
makati1 on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 4:30 am
Antius, if no-one has money to buy, they can have warehouses full of shit to sell but it is worthless. Ditto for factories. No buyer for your product, it is just a building full of useless machinery. Notice what is happening to the auto industry today. Factories closing. Tens of thousands being let go. It is only the beginning of the contraction.
Japan is ahead of the US in one thing, its aging population. It has to support more and more millions every year with fewer actual money earners/producers to be taxed. The US is soon going to feel the same pinch. You can let millions of low paid immigrants in, but they will not make up for the loss of those tens of millions who once produced, paid taxes and now only consume. 50,000,000 plus as of today. 10,000 more being added to the SS roles everyday. Dog walkers and field hands are not going to make up for the six figure incomes lost to retirement.
Those who believe their homes are great investments for retirement are already seeing the writing on the wall in the US. The new “jobs” do not pay enough to buy their houses. They may not have a buyer when they want to sell. Instead they will own a money pit. Things only have value if their is someone who has the resources and the desire to purchase them. Something seldom mentioned by “economists” or real estate salesmen. Buckle Up! It’s going to get ugly.
makati1 on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 4:34 am
MOB, your “feelings” come from delusions, not reality. The US is already on the way down. DEBT is killing it. That and the dumbed down citizens that are still enjoying bread and circus’. Trump is the perfect president to finish the job. Give him another term! Go Trump!
JuanPee identity theft on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 4:54 am
Not Davy
Davy on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 8:56 pm
Juanpee sock on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 4:55 am
This is JuanPee
Mitch on Thu, 28th Feb 2019 8:26 pm
Davy on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 4:56 am
“Davy is about to go postal! Here are some free mental health clinics in St.Louis.”
makato, to bad you don’t have anywhere to go or any family to support you in your end days of dementia and mental decline. What a wasted life.
Juanpee sock on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 4:57 am
This is Juanpee
Mitch on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 12:52 am
Davy on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 4:59 am
“Germany has the same sound economic foundations.”
Germany is an economic and demographic basket case.
Davy on Fri, 1st Mar 2019 5:04 am
Wow, what a waste friggin night of JuanP BS, makato dumbass, and clogged fantasy. Throw in a little Mob. The only rational one is Antius. This place is gone from the gutter to the sewer. Maybe JuanP will get eaten by a shark and makato a pig. MOB will paint the ceiling practicing for the anarchist rapture. Clogged will get house arrest for subversive Nazi activity with no internet privileges. Wow, that would clean things up