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Page added on January 8, 2018
Kunstler: Fairy Tale
Am I imagining that Oprah Winfrey launched her presidential campaign last night at the Golden Globes Awards? Well, why not? Unlike the Golden Golem of Greatness, skulking fiery and furious in his lonesome White House tweet chamber, Americans of all identity persuasions love Oprah. Unlike the president, who attained “stable [for now] genius” status without ever reading a book, Oprah displays real curiosity about this vexing and wondrous world, and an eagerness to engage with it. Unlike the maestro of the janky Trump brand, with his penchant for serial bankruptcy and stiffing the help, Oprah appears capable of running a business empire.
Let’s face it: the Democratic Party has no other figure of gravitas on the bench. Everybody trusts Oprah, probably even more than the erstwhile Barack Obama, with his dogged allegiance to Wall Street and his fifty percent taint of innate white male cis-hetero patriarchical depravity. Oprah might be the Democratic Party’s last best hope before it collapses into the mausoleum of US political history, where the Whigs, Free Soilers, and Anti-Federalists lie a’moldering.
Politics in this land has failed in its effort to become show business, while show business is succeeding wildly in its attempt to replace politics. All Washington can produce these days is a succession of tedious irresolvable soap operas. Hollywood is enacting a grand moral drama of clear-cut heroines and villains, victims and oppressors, sticking to archetypal story-line of our lifetime: the campaign for freedom, equality, and decency. Show business loves the desert sunshine; politics is mired in the Potomac swamp. Oprah even has better hair than the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Oprah herself is an object lesson in the social and political themes that America dares not talk about: a person of humble origins who succeeded wildly in American life by signing onto a once-sturdy and now-fading common culture. In fact, Oprah probably embodies all that remains of American common culture, and the multitudes adore her for it. They are reassured to know that the binding verities still exist. She moves in a realm where blackness and whiteness are emphatically irrelevant — which is surely a relief to people of good will who are sick of race-hustling from all quarters. Though she has credibly acted plenty of sharecropper roles in the movies, Oprah speaks English beautifully and doesn’t apologize for moving up from the ghetto patois of her rough childhood. She may not write all her own material — such as Sunday’s Golden Globes speech that may live on like MLK’s I Have a Dream oration — but she delivers her message with conviction. And who knows, maybe she did compose all or part of it.
One upshot of this is that Oprah might be capable of squaring the circle of America’s black-white racial quandary, which Mr. Obama could not accomplish: namely, restoring the idea that we have more in common as countrymen (countrypersons?) than the artificial barriers of the cultural Marxists falsely insinuate; that skin color, ethnic origin, religious order, and gender do not define adequately what we can be in the world, and maybe we would be better off putting those things aside and just work earnestly to bring out the best in ourselves without excuses..
This country is dying to put its house order. I daresay this is true of the great majority including the immiserated flyover folks who got snookered by Mr. Trump, and the big city hipsters who are coming into their years of power in the awful dimming of American prospects, and maybe even some of the suits in the corporate C-suits who still possess tattered memories of high school civics. I’m not promoting Oprah for president, but just you watch: somebody will. It is going to happen. The country faces enormous problems and predicaments, and the one-man soap opera at the center of it all is doing nothing but sucking all of the oxygen out of the room, leaving everybody else to choke and strangle.
228 Comments on "Kunstler: Fairy Tale"
Makati1 on Wed, 10th Jan 2018 11:01 pm
Greg, you and I know that Russia is the only country left that can be totally independent for a long tome to come. That is why the US wants so bad to get it’s claws back inside to plunder those resources. Like a vampire that needs new blood.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 10th Jan 2018 11:10 pm
Madkat
China is already in junk status..LOL and the global economy is only growing at 1 percent GDP per capita. Its already in neutral…
And Greg yes Russia did peak once already. That is the reason the soviet union collapsed..Jesus christ you are so uneducated and ignorant. What did you think your rabid boy Putin would be fine? Without a market to sell their oil its worth nothing.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 10th Jan 2018 11:14 pm
Greg
The tree hugging imbecile scared of global warming! Greg is so dumb and uneducated he doesn’t even realize their has been 6 mass extinctions in the past already. And 99 percent of all species on earth went extinct well before humans even evolved! Those evil humans if they would all just bug out of their minds and go move into isolation somewhere. than maybe just maybe we could survive the collapse.
Makati1 on Wed, 10th Jan 2018 11:31 pm
MM, And your info is from? You are in that fantasy world again, MM. ‘Junk status’ does not get you in the basket of currencies at the IMF. Did you forget that the ‘rating agencies’ are US government controlled? If they were not, the US would already have been junk decades ago. The US exists only on great lies, not facts.
The US is junk status and has been. The hugest debtor ever on the planet. Some $200+ Trillion in debt and growing. If it was a company it would be in bankruptcy and closed. Only the Fed printing press has prevented that and with Russia and China working to take down the petrodollar, it will soon happen. Be patient.
Makati1 on Wed, 10th Jan 2018 11:38 pm
MM, you really need to get some real education and shake off that imperial brainwashing. You sound more and more delusional with every post. Get out in the real world.
You could be sitting on a warm beach in the 85F sunshine here and enjoying the filipinas for less than $3K/mo. Flights included (<$1,000 RT).
MASTERMIND on Wed, 10th Jan 2018 11:44 pm
Madkat
The US only has around 20 trillion in debt not 200 trillion that is twice the amount of the world GDP…World governments combined have around 330 trillion according to the BIS..And that is going to cause cascading defaults..Asia will not be spared and they are not going to destroy the petro dollar.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 10th Jan 2018 11:46 pm
Madkat
China Government Study: China’s Oil Production is About to Peak in 2018 & Coal in 2020 (Wang, 2017)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12182-017-0187-9
Oh no China is junk status and will be running out of oil and coal. How will they keep the lights on? LOL GOODBYE CHINKS! LOL That is what you get for creating a slave state!
Boat on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 12:23 am
Mal,
First you say the West is contracting and go straight into World Bank numbers that say the West is growing. Your a lol weird dude, is MM your son?
Cloggie on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 12:26 am
Lonely Planet
http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/weltkarte-der-reiseentfernung-zu-staedten-fotostrecke-157055.html
Most places on the planet are largely void of people.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 12:35 am
Boat
Its not about whether you are growing or not. the US economy grew at one percent during the depression. And the entire OCED are in a depression now. I know you cant count so I wont shoot the numbers out again for the million time. Shouldn’t you be looking at incest or beastly porn like all you bible belt states do the most?
Cloggie on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 12:35 am
First you say the West is contracting and go straight into World Bank numbers that say the West is growing. Your a lol weird dude, is MM your son?
Indeed. We are currently in a unprecedented phase of global expansion all across the board. And this will probably continue until fossil fuel prices rise again.
And then the renewable energy expansion will begin in earnest, probably in the midst of an economic downturn.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 12:39 am
Clogg said
Indeed. We are currently in a unprecedented phase of global expansion all across the board.
Now here are the facts
OCED Economic Growth GDP Per Capita 1970-2015 (0.5%)
https://imgur.com/a/HXBkr#Bv4I4AF
Global Economic Growth GDP Per Capita (1.3%)
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG
World Governments Gross Debt to GDP (330%)
https://imgur.com/a/3usX7
Global economic growth has peaked, says World Bank
https://www.ft.com/content/4b9e6190-f55e-11e7-88f7-5465a6ce1a00
We are in a global depression and Clog thinks the global economy is growing great! LOL So dumb just like his migrant phobia! Clog you need to go back to school.
Boat on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 12:50 am
MM,
During the depression 70 percent of the people had jobs. 1 percent growth was ok for them. China is a respected and feared empire but one way or another kill off 10’s of millions on a regular basis.
Boat on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 12:52 am
MM,
The world is doing great indeed. It’s supporting to many new kids every day.
Makati1 on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 1:19 am
Boat, you obviously are not very educated about Asian current events. Stick to your gulag that you know so well. China is expanding at least twice as fast as the US. Denial doesn’t change facts. The West is contracting. Ignore the propaganda numbers. That is all they are.
The US is self-destructing. Even the railroads are below 3rd world standards. Ditto, airports, roads, water systems,electrical systems, sewage, and on and on. The economy is contracting everyday or there would not be thousands of stores closing every year. Chains like Sears that have been around for 100+ years.
The US has zero bullet trains, just 1900s antiques on old rails that have thousands of accidents every year. Does that sound like a first world country?
2016:
10,927 accidents
8,050 injuries
805 deaths
https://www.statista.com/statistics/204569/rail-accidents-in-the-us/
“The country’s (China) HSR network, which in 2016 extended to 29 of the country’s 33 provincial-level administrative divisions and exceeded 25,000 km (16,000 mi) in 2017 in total length,…” WIKI
For the math impaired, that’s almost seven times across the US.
Makati1 on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 1:30 am
MM, “Oh no China is junk status and will be running out of oil and coal. How will they keep the lights on? LOL GOODBYE CHINKS! LOL That is what you get for creating a slave state!”
Facts:
China has oil fields it hasn’t tapped yet. It also has a well oiled (pun intended) friend to the north that also has oil fields to tap. Ditto for coal.
“China’s shale oil reserves have reached 764.3 billion cubic meters, ranking third in the world after the United States and Canada, the 21st Century Business Herald reported, citing Zhang Dawei, Director of the Reserves Evaluation Center of China’s Ministry of Land and Mineral Resources.”
http://www.atimes.com/article/chinas-shale-oil-reserves-now-rank-third-world/
“China holds the third largest coal reserves in the world.”
China’s buddy,”The Russian Federation possesses the second biggest coal reserves.”
http://www.mining-technology.com/features/feature-the-worlds-biggest-coal-reserves-by-country/
“In China, now with 38 operating reactors on the mainland, the country is well into the growth phase of its nuclear power program. There were eight new grid connections in 2015, and five in 2016. Over 20 more reactors are under construction, including the world’s first Westinghouse AP1000 units, and a demonstration high-temperature gas-cooled reactor plant. Many more units are planned, including two largely indigenous designs – the Hualong One and CAP1400. China aims to have more nuclear capacity than any country except the USA and France by 2020.”
http://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx
I don’t think they will be running out of energy any time soon.
Makati1 on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 1:52 am
MM…
Total National Debt = $ 20.6 Trillion
State debt = $ 1.2 T
Local debt = $ 1.9T
That does NOT count future S.S. benefits owed. Future retirement bennies for veterans or their medical expenses. Interest on those debts. Government retirement plans for the 11 million plus government employees. Etc. Do some research. The clock says it is already “69.5 T and growing fast. Totals debt is well over $100T. The crash is coming.
Personal debt = $18,7 T
Mortgage debt = $ 14.9 T
Student loan debt = $1.5 T
Credit card debt = $ 1 T
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
The $200T may be a bit exaggerated, but not for long. You can see the numbers spinning and they are not subtracting. lol
Makati1 on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 1:55 am
P.S. I like the last number: Liabilities per US taxpayer. $922,000+. I’m glad I am no longer a US taxpayer. Just a Social Security recipient. lol
Antius on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 2:17 am
Chinese energy production has already peaked.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/china-energy-production-to-2016-bp.png
Chinese worker wages have stopped growing.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/china-percent-growth-in-ave-urban-wages.png
Article in full:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2017/11/08/will-china-bring-an-energy-debt-crisis/
Anti-Chinese propaganda?
The Chinese economic model was based upon borrowing cheap money and using cheap energy to make massive infrastructure investment, hoping that the increased productivity will exceed the cost of debt. The Soviet union did exactly the same thing. It can achieve impressive growth as long as wages were cheap and energy is almost free (I.e cheap coal). Since 2007, it has stopped working and there does not appear to be a Plan B.
Makati1 on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 3:14 am
Gail, the money grubber, is NOT a reliable source of info about China’s energy. She has to tune her remarks to her audience or sell pencils on the street. I would not take her facts as truth. She is only in it for a paycheck.
“China’s energy consumption grew at 1.5 percent in 2015, the lowest growth rate since 1998, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.” (July 2016) Still, it was growth, not contraction.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/07/09/amid-massive-transition-demand-for-energy-in-china-drops-to-17-year-low/#459973945dbf
“Record W.African oil sailing east, propelled by China demand”
She better look at the switch from coal to NG and nuclear when she prognosticates.
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 3:48 am
“Russia still has a surplus of oil, and the Russians are quite accustomed to adverse economic conditions.”
This is an opinion not fact. It is overly general and points to emotions many have for the Russians of WWII and the fall of the USSR. Times have changed and so have Russians
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 3:54 am
“Greg, MM wants to believe, like Davy, that all will experience the same results when the SHTF. Neither can accept that there are better, safer places and ways to survive what is coming. They are not willing to make the sacrifices that it requires so everyone else has to be doomed like they are. We know better. At least we are trying to ease the consequences. I would prefer a regular headache to a migraine. I’m sure you would also.”
Sure, elaborate with references mad kat. We are all going down together but that is where it ends. You want to put forth the idea the US is the only place to see a big drop. I am saying we all will with our common connection to the affluence that globalism. That said the how this starts and where it starts and the particular characteristics of the location is question in regards to overshoot matters. You on the other hand choose to peddle an intellectually lame agenda not dealing with science but anti-American emotion.
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 4:00 am
“Mm, how do YOU know China is lying? the US MSM propaganda? I do know that the US is lying totally in every area. It has to or it would be a 3rd world country open to the world and the dollar wold be toilet paper. I do not use only one source for my evaluation or one country.”
Mad kat, I have referenced multiple articles showing China distorts its financial position. It rehypothecates collateral on most of its debt and this is systematic and part of the fabric of their financialization. China more than any other economy is one big Ponzi scheme of lies. China is a country that operates in bubbles. It is a bubble economy. It is a extend and pretend economy. It has huge bad debt and overcapacity. There is no way to achieve the growth China has without bubbles. The US is doing similar shenanigans but not to the extreme of the Chinese. You refuse to accept this even though you read it daily.
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 4:06 am
“Russia isn’t going to run into oil shortages for domestic consumption any time soon. Likely not for decades.”
Russia may not have shortages of oil but they will suffer the same or worse with a down turn. They are a less diversified economy than other major powers. They are instead resource dominated. Once the economy goes through more energy pains Russia will feel it. Their markets for their oil will feel it. They cannot decouple from the economic reality of the decline of globalism. Maybe NK will do OK. That is one of the few countries that can somewhat decouple. Even NK is reliant on oil for its rich to live well.
Antius on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 4:07 am
“based on data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017”
Her graph accounts for all energy sources, including natural gas and nuclear.
If you do not trust the data, no logic that I present is going to convince you.
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 4:12 am
“My ref is from the world bank. I read the one you are referring to. AS I said, China is cleaning house in prep for 2021. Even if the Chinese GDP is half what they claim it is well above the claims of the US which is really in negative numbers.”
Mad kat, you can’t have it both ways. You routinely accuse places like the world bank of lying and being stooges of US propaganda that is until they say what you want to hear then all is peachy. You are such and agendist. BTW, it is not scientific to say “even if it is half then”. You don’t compare countries like that. That is juvenile science.
“The East is where it is at and where it is going to be. Growth, not contraction.”
Sure mad kat, all 4.5BIL with economies way too overextended on exports and food imports. Your day of reckoning is coming and worse than the more sober west.
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 4:15 am
“Most places on the planet are largely void of people.”
Geeze, are you trying to make the planets huge overpopulation less so? The world has an order of magnitude too many people.
Antius on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 4:19 am
“You refuse to accept this even though you read it daily.”
The day is not long off, when the truth will become blatantly obvious and undeniable. The world is not long off a rerun of 2008 and another Great Depression. There will be no winners, but some will certainly come off worse.
Chinese efforts to establish a gold backed Yuan are a desperate attempt to prop up the value of their currency, which is now struggling as wealthy Chinese in the know, attempt to withdraw their money from the debt-ridden country. They can see the writing on the wall. A gold backed Yuan was the only option available to them that didn’t involve raising interest rates. Their debt is too high and too rapidly growing to make this at all possible at this point. Far from being an attempt to usurp the dollar, this is an act of desperation design to ward off collapse.
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 4:23 am
The US is self-destructing. Even the railroads are below 3rd world standards.
The US has one of the best freight rail systems in the world
Do you have accidents statistics for China?
“Why China Doesn’t Publish Fatal Train Crash Data”
https://tinyurl.com/y9dns98d
For the math impaired
Makati1 on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 4:23 am
Antius, I do not go by one source for any facts and BP is not an unbiased source or Gail. Sorry. Both are deep in the oily industry and need to support it for their income. They say what is necessary keep the paychecks flowing and the suckers on board.
“BP Lies, Again and Again. Where Are the Consequences?” 2010
“BP’s lies about Gulf oil spill should worry Arkansas victims of Exxon spill.” 2013
“British Petroleum Lies to Employees and Breaks Promises to Oil Spill Victims” 2014
“U.S. judge: BP’s lies about flow rate didn’t hinder Gulf oil spill response” 2015
Ain’t Google wonderful?
“
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 4:32 am
“China’s shale oil reserves have reached 764.3 billion cubic meters, ranking third in the world”
It doesn’t have the water resources to exploit these resources like the US.
“China holds the third largest coal reserves in the world.”
Peak economic coal is now happening in China worse than anywhere in the world
”The Russian Federation possesses the second biggest coal reserves.”
Much of Russia’s vast coal reserves is uneconomic just like the US.
“I don’t think they will be running out of energy any time soon.”
Mad kat, more of your wanting things both ways depending on the discussion. The whole world is beset with energy affordability issues that you are cheerleading on one hand with the west and denying with Asia. FRAUD
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 4:35 am
“Do some research. The clock says it is already”
Yea, mad kat do some research
“Financial position of the United States – Wikipedia”
https://tinyurl.com/zz6do4q
“The financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269.6 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP) as of Q1 2014.”
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 4:37 am
“Gail, the money grubber, is NOT a reliable source of info about China’s energy. She has to tune her remarks to her audience or sell pencils on the street. I would not take her facts as truth. She is only in it for a paycheck.”
LOL, but you use her numbers to attack the US. What a FRAUD
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 4:41 am
“Antius, I do not go by one source for any facts”
You go to any source that supports your one sided viewpoint. Why don’t you quit pressuring the board mad kat with your anti-American agenda. This is ridiculous. I am not going to allow your lies to propagate so this makes the board even messier. You are a disgusting person.
Makati1 on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 4:43 am
Davy, the US is a 3rd world country. You can try to bullshit your way past that fact, but a 1st world country should not have an antique rail system, nor the collapsing infrastructure it has.
“The ASCE says there are an estimated 240,000 water main breaks per year in the United States.” Over 600 per day!
“By some estimates, more than $1 trillion in upgrades are needed to the vast system of mostly underground pipes.”
http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2016/01/28/america-s-water-infrastructure-is-in-need-major-overhaul.html
I live in a mega 3rd world city, way older than any in the US, and I have only heard of one water main break in my 10 years of living here and that was in 2010.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/18/us/18water.html
Wooden pipes in the US? LMAO That’s just one example. The US is 3rd world, or worse.
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 4:55 am
Mad kat, why can’t you stay on topic and respectful of others. You are pressuring the board with your extreme agenda peddling. It is amazing how clean the board becomes when you are gone. My post go down proportionately also. I am not going to allow your extremism to propagate. You will be neutered. You are DISGUSTING
“Davy, the US is a 3rd world country. You can try to bullshit your way past that fact, but a 1st world country should not have an antique rail system, nor the collapsing infrastructure it has.”
Mad kat, sure it is and it is a 1st world country. You can’t deny that by only showing the bad. FRAUD
“The ASCE says there are an estimated 240,000 water main breaks per year in the United States.” Over 600 per day!”
Mad kat, can you reference other countries estimates? The whole world is undergoing growing pains. You can’t just micro manage the truth to your agenda peddling needs of anti-Americanism and expect to cover the truth of the world situation.
“I live in a mega 3rd world city, way older than any in the US, and I have only heard of one water main break in my 10 years of living here and that was in 2010.”
Mad kat, your issues in Manila are huge. The place is almost unmanageable. It is going to be another Lagos of chaos and cancer.
“Wooden pipes in the US? LMAO That’s just one example. The US is 3rd world, or worse.”
What are educating us on water main this morning?
Antius on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 5:37 am
Well who the heck knows. It won’t be very much longer before the future plays itself out. You will both get to see your assumptions and prejudices tested in real time.
My own prediction is that there will be no winners. I make this assertion because the world’s energy resources are now showing clear signs of depletion. China’s oil and coal production have peaked; the US has built up a low-EROI tight oil Ponzi scheme. The world is competing for a dominant slice of a shrinking pie.
Makati1 on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 5:45 am
Davy, I’ll stay om any topic I choose. They ALL pertain to the conditions caused by peak oil. All you have to do is connect the dots.
The collapse of the US is due to the fact that it cannot grow anymore because it is between a rock, the cost of oil, and a hard place, the consumer’s declining ability to purchase said oil. It needs to find/steal resources it can take easily to keep the sideshow going a bit longer. That ability is now ending. And about time.
All the US can do is threaten and try to bully … about like yourself. And, like you, the world is ignoring it more and more. My advice? Move to Italy while you still can.
Makati1 on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 5:49 am
Antius, peaked? By whose declaration? The World is competing? No, the West is competing.
China is buying. Russia is selling. Iran is selling. Venezuela is selling. The world has plenty of oil, coal and NG for those who are willing to pay the real cost. It just will not be cheap like in the past. It will have the value it deserves. Maybe $20 per gallon for gasoline. Maybe more. We shall see. Waste will end, and that is a good thing.
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 5:56 am
“Davy, I’ll stay om any topic I choose. They ALL pertain to the conditions caused by peak oil. All you have to do is connect the dots.”
Mad kat, you are agenda peddling. On topic means staying within the thread not pressuring the board with unrelated propaganda. Almost every thread has you introducing your anti-Americanism in some form. Stay off the form for a few days and I will also and let’s see how things shake out.
“The collapse of the US is due to the fact that it cannot grow anymore because it is between a rock, the cost of oil, and a hard place, the consumer’s declining ability to purchase said oil. It needs to find/steal resources it can take easily to keep the sideshow going a bit longer. That ability is now ending. And about time.”
Got the references to back up that overly generalized opinion that forms the basis of your agenda peddling? Do you also have the balancing references to reveal the reality the entire world is in a difficult affordability issues with energy and growth. Nope you don’t mad kat. You are just talking out your ass as usual.
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 5:59 am
“Antius, peaked? By whose declaration? The World is competing? No, the West is competing.”
Listen to Antius if you won’t listen to me. He is a balanced unbiased source that is shooting down your agenda. That means something mad kat or will you continue to lie to yourself.
“China is buying. Russia is selling. Iran is selling. Venezuela is selling. The world has plenty of oil, coal and NG for those who are willing to pay the real cost. It just will not be cheap like in the past. It will have the value it deserves. Maybe $20 per gallon for gasoline. Maybe more. We shall see. Waste will end, and that is a good thing.”
What a juvenile statement on energy. You are really losing credibility mad kat. Try to say something with facts and science not just the advertising of your home team economics.
Antius on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 6:26 am
“Antius, peaked? By whose declaration? The World is competing? No, the West is competing.”
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/crude-oil-production
Maybe they are lying? 🙂
Antius on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 6:56 am
Take a look at this:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-10/party-while-you-can-central-banks-are-ready-pop-everything-bubble
If true, it is almost certain that the US (and the entire world) will face the worst recession in living memory within the next 12 months. If the US institutes a sharp interest rate increase, other countries will be forced to do the same to defend the value of their currencies. That includes China, which is presently expending considerable resources to prevent its currency value from falling through the floor. I do not see any way that they could avoid doing this, as not doing so would make the already severe problem of capital flight even worse.
Sit back and enjoy the fireworks. Sell all equities and convert them into cash. Get ready to buy devalued assets.
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 7:26 am
While I agree with much of what is discussed in the referenced “Party While You Can – Central Banks Are Ready To Pop The ‘Everything’ Bubble” in some ways I would also like to point out the world seems to be frozen in a systematic global bubble that is a trap. Repression and easing efforts from ALL central banks can’t really change much without dangerous disturbances so anytime changes are attempted disturbances neuter the changes. While I agree this “worst recession in living history” is possible at any time I would hedge this by saying there is no normal anymore to predict these things. We can’t base future forecasts on past events and logic in the same way anymore. The world is no longer on balance rational economically. The irrational and moral hazard has tipped the balance and historically that is when the fate of a civilization is sealed.
It will probably come down to human nature for when the current global Ponzi arrangement crashes. All Ponzi’s end in tears. This will likely be a process with contagions that ebb and flow. Ponzi arrangements are not rational they are emotional. Ponzi arrangements do reflect reality because this is their subterfuge. They operate within reality but they are very much a game only. A game that pays out returns from new investments. In the case of the global system this payout is with phony future returns. Investments are rewarded not based on real price discovery and return on investment but adapted and stated returns IOW fantasy returns that extend out ever further into the future. The further you go into the future the more distorted this restating can become. Assets and collateral are rehypothecated and misstated in a similar way. What is true value these days? Dow 25000 is real? LOL. Eventually the system does not reflect reality only the narrative of what is real.
If investors can continue to be tamed and continue to be emotionally corralled these bizarre new economic realities can continue. There are relatively few who are the real players with this new arrangement. As long as these folks are kept in check a dangerous panic can be contained. This means further systematic decay and decline. A recession is likely what is needed to help renormalize the system unfortunately the economic and social distortions have gone too far for a normal recession. It appears a recession now could break the facade that is a fake reality. This likely means more extend and pretend of wealth transfer and market bubbles. We all know this cannot last but can we say it will end this year? That to me is now questionable not that it can’t collapse but that can we understand this unreality enough to predict it’s unfolding. Too many variables to determine. Too much has changed and too much is irrational
Antius on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 8:17 am
” It will probably come down to human nature for when the current global Ponzi arrangement crashes. All Ponzi’s end in tears. This will likely be a process with contagions that ebb and flow. Ponzi arrangements are not rational they are emotional. Ponzi arrangements do reflect reality because this is their subterfuge. They operate within reality but they are very much a game only. A game that pays out returns from new investments. In the case of the global system this payout is with phony future returns. Investments are rewarded not based on real price discovery and return on investment but adapted and stated returns IOW fantasy returns that extend out ever further into the future. The further you go into the future the more distorted this restating can become. Assets and collateral are rehypothecated and misstated in a similar way. What is true value these days? Dow 25000 is real? LOL. Eventually the system does not reflect reality only the narrative of what is real.”
Welcome back to 1929! In 90 years of shining technological progress, wouldn’t you think that economists and politicians alike would have developed the foresight to see these things coming and avoid them?
I think we can be fairly certain that a rise in US rates to 5%, say, would cause a recession within months. The reason being that it would immediately increase the cost of borrowing and make existing debt more difficult to service. The world has gotten so used to low rates, that the majority business models that cannot function without them.
It would also lead to all-time peak oil (conventional or otherwise) within about 12 months. Shale companies already have economics in the red, with oil prices at $60/bl and interest rates at 1.25%. How would they cope with oil at $30/bl and 5% interest rates? Between 2014 and 2017, shale producers were able to endure (relatively) low oil prices because credit was almost free and they could borrow at almost no cost to cover the cost of previous shortfalls. A rate rise would kill that strategy in its tracks.
On the positive side, it would also shore up the US dollar and end (at least for the time being) any possible attack on dollar hegemony from the Chinese Yuan. This was never a very realistic threat anyway. I maintain that the only other currency capable of pulling off that sort of attack on dollar hegemony is the Euro. It is not foreseeable (in the short term) because it serves the Germans and French much better to keep the Euro relatively weak against the dollar, as this keeps their exports competitive.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 10:48 am
Antus
We have been in another great depression for the last 11 years. Depression means “Depressed Economic Growth”..And notice the Nazi’s are back just like during the first depression. History repeats…Next time before you argue something make sure you are educated first
The Great Depression 1929-1940 US Economic Growth GDP (1%)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression
The Great Recession 2006-2017 US Economic Growth GDP (1.5%)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/188165/annual-gdp-growth-of-the-united-states-since-1990/
MASTERMIND on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 10:52 am
As M. King Hubbert (1962) shows, Peak Oil is about discovering less oil, and eventually producing less oil due to lack of discovery.
https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Saudi Aramco CEO sees oil shortage coming as investments, oil discoveries drop
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aramco-oil/aramco-ceo-sees-oil-supply-shortage-as-investments-discoveries-drop-idUSKBN19V0KR
Peak Oil Vindicated by the IEA and Saudi Arabia
We are at Peak Oil NOW! If you are to fucking stupid or scared to look at the discovery data..Then just listen to the two world leading energy experts!
GregT on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 10:52 am
“Russia still has a surplus of oil, and the Russians are quite accustomed to adverse economic conditions.”
“This is an opinion not fact. It is overly general and points to emotions many have for the Russians of WWII and the fall of the USSR. Times have changed and so have Russians.”
Fact: The USSR collapsed in Dec of 1991. The children at the time of collapse are now in their 30s. The 20 somethings are now in their 50s.
Fact: The closest parallel in the west was the great depression. The children of 1929 are now mostly either dead, or on their deathbeds.
Fact: Russians in general, are not accustomed to lives of affluence, like we are in the west. No two car garages, houses in the burbs, or vacation properties in the Sun. They are very community and family oriented, and they still have strong religious convictions.
Fact: Russia is still a net exporter of oil. Which is exactly what we are talking about here. Oil shortages.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 11:00 am
Greg
Russia doesn’t have a surplus of oil you stupid person. They have already peaked once. And you cant increase production for fifty years using enhanced oil recovery.
davy on Thu, 11th Jan 2018 11:22 am
“Fact: Russians in general, are not accustomed to lives of affluence, like we are in the west. No two car garages, houses in the burbs, or vacation properties in the Sun. They are very community and family oriented, and they still have strong religious convictions.”
You can’t call that fact. That is your opinion of a generalized viewpoint. You are not a Russian expert.