It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
zero nero on Sun, 23rd Feb 2025 9:41 pm
A reality based on sexual reproduction with an high entropic degradation factor is a short lived reality. They are used mainly for educational purpose to educate eternal beings about basic concepts of realities building.
A reality based on a matrix of solids is a primitive reality that is short in duration
zero newzeroh on Sun, 23rd Feb 2025 10:08 pm
A reality based on a matrix of solid with sexual procreation last between 500 to 1000 year, depending of the initial configuration.
Some reality are even shorter lasting only 100 years. I was born in 1967 when the feminist movement in Canada was created by the government of Canada. This is to teach me about female behavior and sexual reproduction. I estimate this earth reality to be around 75 year old. It is a short time duration reality created for educational purposes. most like I am the only real human on earth.
I estimate the number of eternal ones living on earth at about 5 to 6 people. Everyone else is a fake cgi.
Zweo nwso on Sun, 23rd Feb 2025 10:52 pm
I guess she is Japanese by his name. This is funny as fuck, international center for theorical studies. This is fucking funny if you understand sophisticated sarcasm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMnvGvfA_G4
Japonais man made me laugh.
Bertine Jean on Sun, 23rd Feb 2025 11:00 pm
This remind me my engineering classes. He even has a piece of paper in his hand. He even says OK during his speech. Fucking hilarious.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMnvGvfA_G4
creao jow on Sun, 23rd Feb 2025 11:06 pm
Fuck this is funny, He is even encircling his equations. He is going so fast that you cannot write fast enough in your notes books. these cock sucker were writing so fast that you had trouble matching their speed.
It is perfect, it feels like I am taking a university course.
Who made this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMnvGvfA_G4
valeriale jean on Sun, 23rd Feb 2025 11:19 pm
This is so fucking funny. He said, I forgot the -2 it is not important but I will put it there. Continue writing and does not explain why. This bring back memories.
alain jamel on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 12:05 am
I am almost certain that we killed a lot of these low IQ mentally retarded in the past including women. Then they came up with violence against women and anti-semtism to try to dissuade people from killing them.
Yelloe Jame on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 12:25 am
Competence et respect, the sign is saying at 55:30. This is an old manipulating technic to try to calm down the slaves and to get their voluntary participation of the slave.
This shows that they know that the slaves are unhappy and they could revolt against them. It is to calm down people. I have seen this kind of manipulation all my life, especially inside big corporation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvzU1rH0TWo&t=4184s
I can stand these fucking cock suckers. I am pretty sure we killed a lot of them in past and almost destroyed the whole earth civilization.
Welling Jean on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 12:35 am
There you go. A big flood happened on earth and killed a lot of people. They had to rebuild everything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVv_A3cakpU
I also believe that a big revolution took place and we killed a lot of them including a lot of women and kids.
Bekei adkeils on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 12:53 am
A lot of revolutions took place in past, the goal was to exterminate them. They came up with violence against women, hate speech and antisemitism as means of controlling people anger.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TEQO5s26Lg
All these violent conflicts were us trying to stop an invasion coming from somewhere else.
Weling alime on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 2:03 am
This is what I was talking about. If you do enough maths, you will realize that it is made of set of rigid logical rules. Usually there is an already made table to make you life easier. Otherwise you have to do it the old fashion way with a limit.
This is an example of these rigid logical rules. This is integration table where most of the current integrals are already solved for you. I have used a lot of these table during my engineering course. Maths get complicated really fast and you end up with unsolvable equations.
https://www.physics.umd.edu/hep/drew/IntegralTable.pdf
You also have a derivative table.
Treudel denis on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 2:13 am
It is amazing the speed at which mathematical equations become too complex and unsolvable. I am not surprised that earth technological discoveries have stalled. It looks like it is being done on purpose to keep us in a primitive state.
https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Calculus/Tables_of_Derivatives
If I had to redo it, I would not study engineering. I would sit on the dock of the bay wasting time. The negro seems to understand that without the needs to study advanced maths. I can relate to this song so deeply.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-Bl7LzC_Bk
Elain Jaine on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 3:13 am
I have so many stories. In high school grad 1, we had a music course. We had to play a flute a bec music song. You had to stand up and play the song in front of everybody. This was an humiliation trick made to break you. I completely failed I got 2/10. They teacher start to insult me, calling me a loser, an imbécile. All the rest of the class got it perfectly fine with 8 7 and 9 out of 10. You sit in the class room and you are the only that cannot make it. They are always there trying to make you feel inadequate and incapable.
I canot stand these fucking cock suckers.
Same thing with art classes. Everybody was good at making drawings except me. The only thing I was better then the other people was math. Same with sport, everyone could run fast except me.
GOD I hate these fucking losers.
Jane laporet on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 3:21 am
This shit is fucking funny. This is the typical boring teacher that is insecure that hates his job.
Who made these. The fucking piece of paper. They all had a piece of paper.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzImHsyd-48
zero nea on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 3:29 am
Typical. Teacher writing long phrases on the board to look more intelligent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzImHsyd-48
I had a lot of these teachers.
xena laine on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 3:47 am
This is typical humiliation course. It is made to make you feel inadequate, incapable and insecure about yourself. You look at him and you think you are a loser because you dont understand what he is explaining. This is made to break you psychologically.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzImHsyd-48
wtile gmail on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 4:10 am
It is easier to control slaves if they have a low self esteem. Slaves are easier to control if they feel insecure about themself.
This is probably the purpose of this song, to break you down psychologically.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nsj28NNaLCo
xene noexake on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 4:15 am
I told you. People dont understand with what we are dealing here and how vicious these people are. There are reasons why we started a rebellion against them.
Quaje abdule on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 4:42 am
Little River Band – Help Is On Its Way
Meaning, we know you are feeling insecure and inadequate we are coming to help you. We are coming to be your friend and gardien. Obey us and everything will fine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tcutmdnFvk
Why are you in so much hurry
Is it really worth the worry
Look around
Then slow down
What’s it like inside the bubble
Does your head ever give you trouble
It’s no sin
Trade it in
[Chorus]
Hang on, help is on its way
I’ll be there as fast as I can
Hang on, a tiny voice did say
From somewhere deep inside the inner man
[Verse 2]
Are you always in confusion
Surrounded by illusion
Sort it out
You’ll make out
Seem to make a good beginning
Someone else ends up winning
Don’t seem fair
Don’t you care
See Little River Band Live
Get tickets as low as $36
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Reminiscing
Little River Band
Lady
Little River Band
The Other Guy
Little River Band
[Chorus]
Hang on, help is on its way
I’ll be there as fast as I can
Hang on, a tiny voice did say
From somewhere deep inside the inner man
[Bridge]
Don’t you forget
Who’ll take care of you
It don’t matter
What you do
Form a duet
Let him sing melody
You’ll provide the harmony
[Solo]
[Verse 1]
Why are you in so much hurry
Is it really worth the worry
Look around
Then slow down
What’s it like inside the bubble
Does your head ever give you trouble
It’s no sin
Trade it in
[Chorus]
Hang on, help is on its way
I’ll be there as fast as I can
Hang on, a tiny voice did say
From somewhere deep inside the inner man
There are really vicious people.
quael abudl on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 4:47 am
Another song made to break you psychologically.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOSUcNH41wg
Wurna abdkul on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 12:40 pm
We never created anything. They are the ones creating these big corporations and using these big corporation to introduce new technologies on earth. This is a prefect example of that. Intel and Microsoft illustrate that well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47ovT_hYlt8
They manage the world using big corporation, big financial instituions, mutual funds and people working inside governmental agencies such as EPA, ATF, FDA.
aduld jean on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 12:44 pm
Jump at 6:53. They given a good example of how they introduce new technologies on earth. You guys have no idea with what we are dealing. Really vicious people with no morality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47ovT_hYlt8
zero neao on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 12:50 pm
By mid 1985 the ecosystem has improved to such an extend that there was easy build.. This is how they bring new technologies. They are the ones that gaves us this ecosystem he is talking about. See at 6:51. We did not created the cellphone technologies. It was given to us to enslave us and control us better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47ovT_hYlt8
citale jean on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 1:07 pm
They already have these better quality versions of everything. They want you to believe in the theory of evolution. They don’t want us to believe that there might be a GOD or a creator. They start be introducing the crappy version of everything and move to higher quality version. This below is the perfect example.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgq7LcvRFA4
carline Jean on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 1:21 pm
They need a way to convince people that what we are being taught at universities is real knowledge such as the theory of evolution.
The mimic the theory of evolution and applied it to technologies such as computers and cell phones.
It is to convince us that we are not slaves and what is being taught at universities is real.
Zero nero on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 1:24 pm
The reason why they are talking so much about war, is to discourage us from using war and violence against them.
Better jean on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 1:32 pm
Once strangest thing that they used radio shack at a way to introduce computer into the population. My first computer was a Tandy. It was bought by my father. My father bough for me a basic and C language programming book.
The Tandy 1000 was the first in a series of IBM PC compatible home computers produced by the Tandy Corporation, sold through its Radio Shack and Radio Shack Computer Center stores.
They usually kill these compagnies as time move on.
jdieke welind on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 1:34 pm
One strangest thing was that they used radio shack at a way to introduce computer into the population. My first computer was a Tandy. It was bought by my father. My father bough for me a basic and C language programming book.
The Tandy 1000 was the first in a series of IBM PC compatible home computers produced by the Tandy Corporation, sold through its Radio Shack and Radio Shack Computer Center stores.
They usually kill these compagnies as time move on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1P0r7nptyM
abdudl jamal on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 1:37 pm
As I said, I am created being sent on earth to help kill them and destroy them. I was always on divine protection since my birth.
xenoe neon on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 2:01 pm
My father also bought for me a ZX81. I think they were using Basic as programming language.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Jr7Q1yJOUM
See at 15:07. I remembered that it was a pain in the ass to use. They always start with the crappy difficult to use stuff and the move forward toward more user friendly stuff. The mimic the theory of evolution. Same with the farming tractor and heavy equipment.
Same with the telecommunication technologies. They stared with the rotary phone, move to the pager, move to the voice only phone and finally the cell phone that we have today. It is always the same modus operandi.
Aaline jamal on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 2:07 pm
This is why Canadian Tire and president choice grocery chain are actual real banks like the Banque of Montreal. It is in case we decide to go full retard on them and engage them into a full violent bloody war. Everything is almost setup so we can dismantle the government and go after them.
https://secure.pcfinancial.ca/en/login
https://www.ctfs.com/content/ctfs3/en/homepage.html
You should identify yourself while you still can.
zero neo on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 2:14 pm
Quebec is already setup as independent nation except for custom, army and coast guard and the banque of Canada. All of that can easily by transferred under the authority of the provinces or Québec. Everything is almost setup.
You should identify yourself now before it is too late.
Welind jamla on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 2:56 pm
13:32 my first computer was similar to that with two floppy disks drive and a green screen. I learned Basic programming language on this if I remember correctly. And then earth entered and accelerate time vortex. Some people somewhere were panicking. It felt as if they were running a really tight schedule to complete their earth agenda.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYHtojsaRkY
I think the connectors where in the back instead of the front.
Denis Jean on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 3:02 pm
If I remembered correctly, the computer did not have hard drive. You had to run everything using the floppy disk. This is why there were two floppy drive. The floppy disk was your hard drive. It was really not user friendly and really limited in term of computing power.
I think the operating system was located on the floppy drive. You needed a floppy disk to boot the computer.
keirkxy abraham on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 4:40 pm
Sexual reproduction is not working as intended.
Should the bikini be banned? (1961) | RetroFocus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-m4w_mAxWA
Apparently bikini has not been banned, we movie to the G string bikini.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1aU9OgRqec
Just be looking at the number of plastic parts on car and diesel engines, I think that in 20 year from now everyone on earth will be dead.
selein wir on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 4:46 pm
Look at 3:13. the bigger men using physical strength and size to intimidate the skinny pathetic weak man. As I said brut force and size is always against stupid martial art choreographies. You can see that dynamic is action really well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-m4w_mAxWA
zero neo on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 5:08 pm
I am really starting to think that earth is an 100 year old reality. Earth was designed to educate and train the eternal ones about the sexual procreation, women, and other topics.
Everything that happened in my personal life seems to indicate that.
Xerale gmalke on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 5:19 pm
I also believe we are going backward in time not forward.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYFbyZBvnlU
The negro understand that there is no futur, so he went and sit by the dock of the bay wasting.
The losers whites people, still believe that technologies will save them and allowed them to control the world. The negro has such no illusions.
xernoe change on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 5:37 pm
I am also starting to think that Whites and Jews are the biggest losers that earth has never seen, followed by the Asians.
I also think that the negros are being misjudged. I believe that they are much more intelligent that most people think. They were intelligent enough to sit by the dock of bay wasting time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-Bl7LzC_Bk
Fuck I love this song. I can relate to every word in this song.
werlei ksime on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 5:52 pm
I don’t have a lot of respect for Whites and Jews including Quebecers, Canadians and Americans, Europeans, British, Australians.
Just be looking at the number of plastic parts on car and diesel engines, I think that in 20 year from now everyone on earth will be dead.
In 20 year I think my nightmare will be over.
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seldi jkdime on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 6:20 pm
Yes, I want the whole Whites and Jewish race exterminated, all of them. Can you arrange that for me. No it is not possible. You should try harder.
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kdile dkdine on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 6:26 pm
Yes we will give the earth to the negros. That is what I have in mind. You agree.
xerkdim jecike on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 6:30 pm
The negros should be the last ones die. Jews and Whites die first. This is what I want.
zeroe neide on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 6:47 pm
I want all the Jews and all Whites on earth dead, including the Russians. I have enough of that shit.
I want total extermination of ALL the Whites and Jews living on earth done as fast as possible
Bertiand neaa on Mon, 24th Feb 2025 6:55 pm
The negro is intelligent enough to understand that earth is gigantic failure. Killing each other make sense from this point of view. This si why I am giving the planet to the negro. Fucking useless worthless Jews and Whites people. The negro kills using hatred and violence, I can relate to that.
Fucking losers with your restrictives firearms laws.