It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 8:56 am
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claudia_Sheinbaum
The fucking bitch is a Jew. This is funny as fuck.
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 9:00 am
You see the truck hitting the electrical wire. This is us laughing at earth supposably superior tech. Earth tech is so primitive that we don’t see earth as an advance civilization.
As I said we won the war already.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0klu36XAxQ
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 9:06 am
A civilisation that carry its electricity using a wire is not an advanced civilisation. You are seen as a primitive civilisation at best.
We did it on purpose, we knew in advance that earth civilization will never go past the point of a primitive civilisation. It was part of our plan to torture earth population. You have no idea how much we hate you.
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 9:10 am
What still surprised us is that you electrical grid is still holding, considering that you carry most of electrical wires on wooden poles.
I told you, earth is a primitive civilization. Using wooden poles to cary your electrical wires makes you a primitive civilisation.
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 9:20 am
We give really advance civilisation a periodic table of 500 elements. They can use some of these elements to connect themself directly to earth magnetic field and generate electricity on sport on location. We hate you to much for that, We love watching you suffer.
We are at war against earth and we won. By looking at the media news, it is becoming evident that we have won the war against earth.
I will walk over your cadavers for a question of handguns laws.
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 9:27 am
You never seen an middle type civilization, because you are stuck in civilization that barely qualify as primitive. You are below a primitive civilization actually. We have no love for the people of earth.
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 9:32 am
We have civilisation made of only high IQ males where real freedom exist. They live an extremely long life and have some kind of hybrid flesh body 1000 time more superior of what people of earth have. You have no idea how much we hate you.
WHY elite whitey supertard president GRETA HAZ GROWN two enormous global warming spheres on Fri, 24th May 2024 9:36 am
good or bad please discuss
supertards please be at ease
we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 9:39 am
I am at war against earth, and I will kill every inhabitants living on earth.
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 9:49 am
It is not possible, but if I had time, I would kill every earth inhabitant bare handed one by one at the time. This is how much I hate you.
WHY elite whitey supertard president GRETA HAZ GROWN two enormous global warming spheres on Fri, 24th May 2024 10:10 am
are we at the cusp of seismic shift in human consciousness?
supertards please be at ease
we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here
please chage ur undies afer 10 months
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 10:24 am
Between 1 millions to 10 millions earth year to do what I would like to do. Of course I need an upgraded flesh body. These are personal projects of mine and nobody is coming with me where I am going. You all die here on earth like the loser that you are. Like I said, I would kill all the population of earth one by one bared handed if I could.
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 10:39 am
Intelligent people that did work with applied advanced mathematics understand why I gave a quote between 1 millions to 10 millions earth year to do what I would like to do.
I can wait to see the population of earth die while I am on
Oh, when I’m on, when I’m on my way, yeah
When I see, when I see the way you stay, yeah-eah
Notice what she does with her right arm at 4:17, it means yeah babe I am leaving earth and I am happy and you can all go fuck yourself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_6M254L0XU
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 11:10 am
I have a shit load of projects. all of them cannot be done on earth in a useless flesh body. So what do we do with earth?
I have so many projects, but the population of earth is mentally retarded, I would waits my time trying to explain them to you. I would kill all of you one be one if I could.
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 11:20 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0klu36XAxQ
This is us making fun of your fucking electrical grid earth worship so much. I would kill all the population of earth bare handed one by one if I could.
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 11:28 am
It will required that we install a new energetic grid and dismantle the current earth energy grid to run my personal projects. You did not get the appropriate flesh body update for that. Earth will be burn down by the installation of a new energic grid that is completely different of the current one. Too bad I cannot kill earth population one by one by hands.
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 12:14 pm
This so well done, the top of the box hit the electrical wire. This is a big fuck you to planet earth. This is us making fun of electrical network. We are mocking your technologies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0klu36XAxQ
WHY elite whitey supertard president GRETA HAZ GROWNED two enormous global warming spheres on Fri, 24th May 2024 12:33 pm
DOES this has RAMMIFICATIONS in human conciousness are we at the cusp of seismic shift in our understanding of CLIMATE CON?
supertards please be at ease
we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here
please chage ur undies afer 10 months
BACK when the Convid first started circa March 2020 elite whitey supertard scientific atheistic supremacist president thunderf00t went on self imposed quarantine and i said it smellz and demanded immediate amputation on Fri, 24th May 2024 12:35 pm
since then he HAZ PROSTED zero video about the convid.
ask urself fi somone who speaks high british englsih does he love supremacist muzzies
Of course he does
please speak low english
elite whitey supertard president KAT HAZ MUZZ-19 himself with reckless abandonment HASTILY DEPARTED FOR SAINT PETERS on Fri, 24th May 2024 12:38 pm
MUZZ-19 was made by DROPOUT-19 he mixed it in his basemet using empty paint buckets
Trust “the science!”
supertards please be at ease
we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here
please chage ur undies afer 10 months
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 4:13 pm
There is only two ways I can think of that you can make people necks longer. You modified the biological earth calculator algorithms to make people necks longer but you keep the same on earth energy field. Or you modified the earth energy field but you do not modifie earth biological calculator algorithms. My guess is the second one, I can feel when the energy fields change, sometime I have difficulty to move my legs, sometime I walk backward instead of forward.
If you don’t get a new body you will be burnt alive when the new energy field is fully installed.
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 4:19 pm
Most people have not received a new body to match the new energy earth field currently being installed. This is why people are uglier, longer necks and faces moved forward. You old body does not know how to react to the new energy fiels configuration and created all kind of weird faces with weird eyes.
You see what I mean. Earth will be burnt alive once the switch to a full on energy field is activated.
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 4:25 pm
The only reason why we have not shifted to complet new energy fiels is because my flesh body is still in transition. Once I am ready, we will switch to the new energy field and kill everyone on earth. This is just a theory of mine, I could be wrong of course.
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 4:35 pm
Never take away the handguns of a man. Some men will destroy whole planets for such an insult.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3wISftyEAE
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 5:16 pm
I will give you an advice, suicide yourself while you still can.
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 9:22 pm
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
I’ll burn that bridge before you can cross
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
There’ll be no mercy for you once you’ve lost
Well, the whole world is filled with speculation
The whole wide world which people say is round (earth is torture chamber based on a strong mathematical background)
They will tear your mind away from contemplation
They will jump on your misfortune when you’re down
All my loyal and my much-loved companions (the invisible world)
They approve of me and share my code
I practice a faith that’s been long abandoned
Ain’t no altars on this long and lonesome road
Well, it’s bright in the heavens and the wheels are flyin’
Fame and honor never seem to fade
The fire gone out but the light is never dyin’
Who says I can’t get heavenly aid?
The sufferin’ is unending (body update is painful)
Every nook and cranny has its tears
I’m not playin’, I’m not pretendin’
I’m not nursin’ any superfluous fears
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3wISftyEAE
rrr on Fri, 24th May 2024 11:48 pm
As I said many times, we have already won. Nobody is leaving earth and I will walk over your cadavers as it was planned. In musical terms if you want.
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
I’ll burn that bridge before you can cross
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
There’ll be no mercy for you once you’ve lost
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3wISftyEAE
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 11:56 pm
I said and written manu times that I was in pain and not impress with my body update. Some of you saw how sometimes I was walking in a funny with uncoordinated way. Earth population will killed as soon as possible. I can not stand sharing the same space with all you.
The sufferin’ is unending
Every nook and cranny has its tears
I’m not playin’, I’m not pretendin’
I’m not nursin’ any superfluous fears
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3wISftyEAE
ee on Fri, 24th May 2024 11:57 pm
I said many time that I will destory earth because you took my handguns from me. This video is full of cowboys with handguns. I will fucking kill all of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3wISftyEAE
tt on Sat, 25th May 2024 12:03 am
I told you that sometimes I talk to a spirit and I often mentioned something that I call the invisible world.
All my loyal and my much-loved companions
They approve of me and share my code
I practice a faith that’s been long abandoned
Ain’t no altars on this long and lonesome road
Well, it’s bright in the heavens and the wheels are flyin’
Fame and honor never seem to fade
The fire gone out but the light is never dyin’
Who says I can’t get heavenly aid?
You took my handguns away from me, I will destroy planet earth for this insult.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 12:14 am
I explain to you that earth is not round. I explain to you how we designed earth to be an efficient torture and execution chamber. I explain to you that women were designed to be heavily mentally retarded.
Well, the whole world is filled with speculation
The whole wide world which people say is round
They will tear your mind away from contemplation
They will jump on your misfortune when you’re down
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3wISftyEAE
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 2:59 am
I will kill the whole population of earth just because I can and I am better then you are.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 9:45 am
I hear talk of revolutions everywhere. If a revolution starts, it will be started by the invisible world and run by the invisible world with help of some selected humans. The revolution /civil war will be ran from the outside of earth by the invisible world. You are not going to win this one if the invisible world decides to start a revolution and kill the communists. The same you were not able to stop the container ship to hit the bridge, you will not be able to stop a revolution.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 10:00 am
If the invisible world decide that I need to lead an army as part of my training they will make it happen even against my will. The population of earth control nothing. I told you, you are just fucking losers without any real value to us.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 10:11 am
I put my comments and thoughts here as a warning. If I was to be pushed to some command position, you will know that people that pushed me there agree with what I am been writing here, so you could easy guess who will be killed and how I will act.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 10:13 am
It is written in the song.
All my loyal and my much-loved companions
They approve of me and share my code
I practice a faith that’s been long abandoned
Ain’t no altars on this long and lonesome road
Well, it’s bright in the heavens and the wheels are flyin’
Fame and honor never seem to fade
The fire gone out but the light is never dyin’
Who says I can’t get heavenly aid?
You took my handguns away from me, I will destroy planet earth for this insult.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 10:25 am
I put my comments and thoughts here as a warning. If I was to be pushed to some command position, you will know that people that pushed me there agree with what I am been writing here. SO there is good chances that they agree with me saying that we will cut relation with UK, Israel, Europe, South Korean and Japan. You have an ideal into what North America will turn into if I get push in some command position.
As written in the song:
All my loyal and my much-loved companions
They approve of me and share my code
I practice a faith that’s been long abandoned
Ain’t no altars on this long and lonesome road
Well, it’s bright in the heavens and the wheels are flyin’
Fame and honor never seem to fade
The fire gone out but the light is never dyin’
Who says I can’t get heavenly aid?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3wISftyEAE
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 11:27 am
I put my comments and thoughts here as a warning. If I was to be pushed to some command position, you will know that people that pushed me there agree with what I am been writing here. SO there is good chances that they agree with me when I am saying that I will abandon the role of managing the US reference currency and in the long I will work total isolation of North America from the rest of the world.
You know part of the future if I get command.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 11:33 am
I will reform the school system but I never really talk about that. The land will be given back to the people, as I value freedom more the equality.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 11:35 am
the school system will changed as to give people the skill needed for them to reclaim ownership of the land.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 11:44 am
Firearms manipulations and technics will be taught in high school as part of a mandatory course.
ww on Sat, 25th May 2024 11:46 am
I will give you real changes you can believe in it, unlike Obama that did nothing different from its predecessors.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 12:05 pm
Mariage is going to be a business between two persons. Total abolition divorces and family courts. If the marriage does not work and the woman end up living in the street, it is not my problem. The vagina needs to learn to make intelligent decisions on her own. If the vagina cannot make wise decisions, she can just die, I don’t care.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 12:46 pm
Is my plan will work? My plan will not work on earth because the population of earth is heavily mentally retarded. My plan is not for planet earth. First step is to kill everyone living on planet earth. You took away my handguns, I will destroy plane earth for that.
I dont want to be in the same space as the population of planet earth. Either we will kill you all for a restart or I leave earth for somewhere else.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 1:29 pm
None of my future projects are for the population of planet earth. You are too mentally retarded. Either I leave or we kill all of you.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 1:34 pm
My ideal project would be a population made of only masculine men, without sexual organs with an improve flesh body that live alone on designed piece of land.
I don’t believe in sexual reproduction as a way to improve intelligence.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 1:45 pm
I don’t believe in working together as way to generate better ideas, better mathematics concepts, better chemistry concepts for the future. I believe in loneliness as a better mechanism to generate ideas and concepts.
Sexual reproduction does not work.
I told you I have so much ideas, but I am not sharing them with earth because I know that earth population is heavily mentally retarded.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 2:18 pm
Planet earth and the actual flesh body are not the perfect habitat for high IQ, creative people. Something will have to be done in this regard to provide these people the best tools we can. The actual flesh body needs big update.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 8:31 pm
I have worked in high tech on cell phone network software. Back then it was CDMA standards. There was always those guys that knew almost by heart line for line 5000 or more lines of code. Some guy could navigate through 10 000 lines of code as it was nothing for them. I was never able to compete against these guy because I am real human. I believe they gave us their techs and send some people to implement it here on earth. I have seen it in the telecom industry. This would apply to computer programming, computer design, micro processor design, diesel engine design, cell phone design.
They use the university school system to lie to us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uINEkyVUAN4
My personal experience with wood is that it will rot away really fast and turn into some kind of brun compost.
ee on Sat, 25th May 2024 10:06 pm
They want you to believe that the biological theory of evolution is real. So they applied the theory of evolution to everything. So we also have the theory of evolution for trains, diesel engines, electronics, computers, handguns, rifle, clothing and so on. It is a prison. They are using us to extract natural ressources for them and build a C40 civilisation for them because they have ruined the world they are coming from.