It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 10:40 am
I was watching some news this morning. You really look like losers that are desperate to print these kind of news headlines. It is so fucking obvious that we won and you lost. You can all go fuck yourself.
I hope the invaders kill all of you and destory your shit civilisation.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 10:44 am
Fucking loser. I thought I was dealing with real GOD. I was speaking with fucking losers without any real power. Go fuck yourself.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 10:51 am
Fucking loser with your wooden electrical poles. Earth barely classified itself as a primitive civilization. You are in fact below a primitive civilization. I told you we hate you and love watching you suffer.
Fucking heavily mentally retarded communists.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 10:55 am
Stop humiliating yourself with such events and news. The other dimensions are laughing at you.
Canada urges G7 to provide financial aid to Ukraine using seized Russian assets
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCoX8t7boqs
You behave like losers. You cannot stop acting like losers because it is what you are deep inside. You behave like loser without real power.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 10:57 am
The way you behave send the signal that you can be easily invaded because you are losers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCoX8t7boqs
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 10:58 am
Fucking losers.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 11:08 am
Nobody is leaving earth and nobody will get a second chance. Show me one failure of the principle of conservation of mass. if you cannot it is certain that I will inherit your cadavers.
Stop humiliating yourself you are invited other landz to advantage of you
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 11:21 am
This is for the real GOD. I also hate you deeply. I dislike the association flesh body and protecteur invisible spirit that can send electrical signals to the spine. You are going to have to redesign this arrangement because I will participate to this if I can get out of it. Fix your fucking shit design. Only fucking low quality beings wherever you look inside of earth of outside of earth.
You piece of shit mode of communication with images is garbage. Why would think such a mode of communication would be effective.
I will kill you also if I can.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 11:35 am
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
I’ll burn that bridge before you can cross = you cannot leave earth
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
There’ll be no mercy for you once you’ve lost = the principle of conservation of mass will kill all of you as planned.
I piss and shit on all of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C3ljnv1vCg
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 11:38 am
There’ll be no mercy for you once you’ve lost
You have lost the day you decide to come down to earth. THe principle of conservation of mass will show no mercy to you.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 11:58 am
Earth is a trap that will show no mercy to you by virtue of the principle of conservation of mass and the principle of 3D solid none interference geometry.
They day you came down on earth is the day that you lost the war. No mercy will be given to you using the principle of conservation of mass.
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
I’ll burn that bridge before you can cross
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
There’ll be no mercy for you once you’ve lost
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C3ljnv1vCg
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 12:05 pm
I told you that we are really intelligent compare to you. Look at the comment above, you see what I mean. I also told, you that we just have hatred for the population of earth. See my comment abocve.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 1:26 pm
I was working on my exhaust system. 20 inch high is the jacking height I need to work under the car.
I am fixing the damage cause by rust. We have already won.
Earth is a trap that will show no mercy to you by virtue of the principle of conservation of mass and the principle of 3D solid none interference geometry.
They day you came down on earth is the day that you lost the war. No mercy will be given to you using the principle of conservation of mass.
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
I’ll burn that bridge before you can cross
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
There’ll be no mercy for you once you’ve lost
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C3ljnv1vCg
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 1:39 pm
0:24 is the face of an insect. This is why I see at least 2 ants a day in my house. Because you are insects with communistic mind with a ego problems.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUTi4s_AGLM
It is the end here for your race.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 1:42 pm
I told you to never take away the handguns of man, fucking communists.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 4:35 pm
I was working on my exhaust. I am almost done. It went faster and easier that I was hoping. While working on the exhaust a big piece of rusty metal droppedt next my head. Law of conservation of mass and entropy degradation laws are still active. Show me one instance where someone saw a failure of the principle of conservation of mass.
I am here to collect your cadavers as it was planned moons ago. Never take away the handguns of a man. Some men will destory whole planet for such an insult.
Earth is a trap that will show no mercy to you by virtue of the principle of conservation of mass and the principle of 3D solid none interference geometry.
They day you came down on earth is the day that you lost the war. No mercy will be given to you using the principle of conservation of mass.
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
I’ll burn that bridge before you can cross
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
There’ll be no mercy for you once you’ve lost
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C3ljnv1vCg
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 5:47 pm
You really think and act like heavily mentally retarded people. You really are fucking losers.
Israël bombarde la bande de Gaza, les efforts internationaux pour une trêve se poursuivent
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gklDq5u_h0g
eed on Sun, 26th May 2024 6:15 pm
On top of the screen in the frames, they all have insects faces. Fucking communists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yk6jB7Qd08
IF WE PAY moare taxes then the diseased minds of libs will say global warming is a huge problem and the TRANNY ISSUE IS a huge problem and we need to pay taxes for that too on Sun, 26th May 2024 6:58 pm
the diseased minds of libs is boundlesss
supertards please change ur undies after 10 years
please feel at ease among friends we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here
WHY elite whitey supertard president GRETA has grown two ENORMOUS GLOBAL warming spheres this is for the enjoyment of supremacist muzzies not for elite whitey supertard presidents on Sun, 26th May 2024 7:47 pm
supertards please change ur undies after 10 years
please feel at ease among friends we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 8:27 pm
Only the people that will leave earth or will get some kind of divine protections will live. The rest you will all die, meaning the whole population of earth will die. Go read revelation 19. Think of conservation of mass while you are reading revelation 19.
Earth is a trap that will show no mercy to you by virtue of the principle of conservation of mass and the principle of 3D solid none interference geometry.
They day you came down on earth is the day that you lost the war. No mercy will be given to you using the principle of conservation of mass.
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
I’ll burn that bridge before you can cross
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
There’ll be no mercy for you once you’ve lost
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C3ljnv1vCg
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 8:28 pm
Never take away the handguns of a man. Never.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 8:45 pm
Who are the real communists on planets earth, it is the Jews and Europeans from Europe. This is where all problems on planet earth started with: Jews, Uk and Europe.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 8:49 pm
People are blaming the Russians and Chinese of being communist while it just a tactic to hide who are the real communists: Jews, UK and Europe.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 9:05 pm
Who started WW1 and WW2 in order to install globalism and subsequently communism in a planetary scale: UK and Europe. Which nations are the most progressives in the world: UK, Israel and Europe. Which nations are pushing and embracing women rights the most: Europe.
Who created Israel: UK.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 9:09 pm
What was the goal of WW1, WW2 and UN. To create the communist philosophy that talking to each other and reaching a consensus is a better way to solve problems then having an competent King. Who is pushing this communist philosophy the most: Europe.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 9:19 pm
Who is behind the destruction of the US: UK, Israel and Europe.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 9:24 pm
Who was to first one to get access the technologies coming from middle earth: Europe. A lot of world wide scientific discoveries are coming from Europe because they are the people of the middle earth. they are the invaders.
How do you like my theories?
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 9:33 pm
Why so many scientific discoveries during WW1 and WW2. Because Europeans comes from the middle-earth.
No I am not White, I am a divinity, it is not the same thing.
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 9:44 pm
Which nations have the most internationals maritime containers shipping companies : Europe.
Do you see all the links pointing toward Europe, not Russia not China.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_container_shipping_companies
ww on Sun, 26th May 2024 9:47 pm
This is the list of US enemies right there. Notice the first 10 spots, these are your enemies. I would exclude China as enemy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_container_shipping_companies
ee on Sun, 26th May 2024 10:32 pm
I want to repeat that. We were always at war against the whole planet. Our goal was always to kill all the population of earth. This will never changer. We won the war against earth a long time ago.
Never take away the handguns of a man. Never do that again.
Only the people that will leave earth or will get some kind of divine protections will live. The rest you will all die, meaning the whole population of earth will die. Go read revelation 19. Think of conservation of mass while you are reading revelation 19.
Earth is a trap that will show no mercy to you by virtue of the principle of conservation of mass and the principle of 3D solid none interference geometry.
They day you came down on earth is the day that you lost the war. No mercy will be given to you using the principle of conservation of mass.
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
I’ll burn that bridge before you can cross
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
There’ll be no mercy for you once you’ve lost
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C3ljnv1vCg
Fucking parasites on Sun, 26th May 2024 11:51 pm
Don’t you find it funny that the US navy is protecting the maritime international shipping lanes for the rest of the world,
but the US rank 28 among the biggest marine international shipping compagnies.
I think it should be Europe responsibility to protect international maritime shipping lane, for the rest of the world, it is not the US job.
Fucking parasites.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_container_shipping_companies
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 12:32 am
I am here to collect your cadavers and I will leave earth with your fucking cadavers.
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 4:05 am
Mes criss de tabernacle d’Europeans sales.
Macron en Allemagne : renouer les liens entre Paris et Berlin • FRANCE 24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAtm9T5-RvQ
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_container_shipping_companies
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 4:11 am
I will repeat that, we are at war against planet earth, and I won’t be happy until all the population of earth is dead. I came for your cadavers and I will get your cadavers.
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 4:19 am
Never put any of laws on firearms ownership. I will destroy and kill th whole population planet earth just for that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQjBf1v0XFo
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 4:31 am
Depending how these things will unfold, I might come to kill some of you personally with my bare hands.
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 4:59 am
A divinity must be entertained. Sometime killing people bare hands is a form of entertainment for some divinity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcEdu14Uda8
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 5:35 am
Ostie de criss de mangeux de merde.
I want to repeat that. We were always at war against the whole planet. Our goal was always to kill all the population of earth. This will never changer. We won the war against earth a long time ago.
Never take away the handguns of a man. Never do that again.
Only the people that will leave earth or will get some kind of divine protections will live. The rest you will all die, meaning the whole population of earth will die. Go read revelation 19. Think of conservation of mass while you are reading revelation 19.
Earth is a trap that will show no mercy to you by virtue of the principle of conservation of mass and the principle of 3D solid none interference geometry.
They day you came down on earth is the day that you lost the war. No mercy will be given to you using the principle of conservation of mass.
Ain’t talkin’, just walkin’
I’ll burn that bridge before you can cross
Heart burnin’, still yearnin’
There’ll be no mercy for you once you’ve lost
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C3ljnv1vCg
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 6:10 am
I have been saying that before. The deep state is destroying the US from within to install a new form of governance. I don’t think it will work. This is Norfolk Southern helping to destroy the US within. This is Norfolk Southern making fun of the tech utopia dreamed by European and globalists of the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXXjYFmMrkE
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 6:18 am
This is the utopia Europe wants for the world
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJ5OU6Z6hgk
This is what Norfolk Southern is mocking in the video below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXXjYFmMrkE
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 6:20 am
This is the utopia Europe wants for the world
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJ5OU6Z6hgk
This is Norfolk Southern mocking European utopia in the video below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXXjYFmMrkE
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 7:01 am
If I can, I will crush down Europe into nothingness until all the population of Europe is dead. Same for Israel and UK.
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 7:16 am
I cannot figure out if they are serious or if this is some kind of video mocking European bureaucrats.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=injwpHRitos
I fucking hate the Brit, Jews and the Europeans from Europe. Fucking communists.
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 7:23 am
I fucking told you, the communists are not the Russians or Chinese. They biggest communists on the planet are the fucking Europeans.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40dr7llQkWI
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 7:34 am
I cannot figure out if they are serious or if this is some kind of video mocking European bureaucrats.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=injwpHRitos
I fucking hate the Brit, Jews and the Europeans from Europe. Fucking communists.
Apparent it is real. They are not mocking European bureaucrats.
https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/promoting-our-european-way-life/european-health-union_en
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 7:36 am
I cannot figure out if they are serious or if this is some kind of video mocking European bureaucrats.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=injwpHRitos
I fucking hate the Brit, Jews and the Europeans from Europe. Fucking communists.
Apparent it is real. They are not mocking European bureaucrats.
https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/promoting-our-european-way-life/european-health-union_en
Apparently this fucking shit is real. The even have real pdf documents.
https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/98c6e4dc-0fc3-4ec6-8ec2-bfcdcb2f018a_en?filename=policy_com-2024-206_en.pdf
dd on Mon, 27th May 2024 7:41 am
I told you they are fucking communists that seek to dominate the world. They come from the middle earth. They are not real humans.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kIPqotYTf4
Fuckings communists.
ee on Mon, 27th May 2024 7:50 am
Some people will come to the same conclusion I came too. Isolation of the North American continent form the rest of the world is the best course of actions.