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Page added on May 7, 2019

The Peculiar Blindness of Experts

The bet was on, and it was over the fate of humanity. On one side was the Stanford biologist Paul R. Ehrlich. In his 1968 best seller, The Population Bomb, Ehrlich insisted that it was too late to prevent a doomsday apocalypse resulting from overpopulation. Resource shortages would cause hundreds of millions of starvation deaths within a decade. It was cold, hard math: The human population was growing exponentially; the food supply was not. Ehrlich was an accomplished butterfly specialist. He knew that nature did not regulate animal populations delicately. Populations exploded, blowing past the available resources, and then crashed.

In his book, Ehrlich played out hypothetical scenarios that represented “the kinds of disasters that will occur.” In the worst-case scenario, famine rages across the planet. Russia, China, and the United States are dragged into nuclear war, and the resulting environmental degradation soon extinguishes the human race. In the “cheerful” scenario, population controls begin. Famine spreads, and countries teeter, but the major death wave ends in the mid-1980s. Only half a billion or so people die of starvation. “I challenge you to create one more optimistic,” Ehrlich wrote, adding that he would not count scenarios involving benevolent aliens bearing care packages.

The economist Julian Simon took up Ehrlich’s challenge. Technology—water-control techniques, hybridized seeds, management strategies—had revolutionized agriculture, and global crop yields were increasing. To Simon, more people meant more good ideas about how to achieve a sustainable future. So he proposed a wager. Ehrlich could choose five metals that he expected to become more expensive as resources were depleted and chaos ensued over the next decade. Both men agreed that commodity prices were a fine proxy for the effects of population growth, and they set the stakes at $1,000 worth of Ehrlich’s five metals. If, 10 years hence, prices had gone down, Ehrlich would have to pay the difference in value to Simon. If prices went up, Simon would be on the hook for the difference. The bet was made official in 1980.

In October 1990, Simon found a check for $576.07 in his mailbox. Ehrlich got smoked. The price of every one of the metals had declined. In the 1960s, 50 out of every 100,000 global citizens died annually from famine; by the 1990s, that number was 2.6.

Ehrlich’s starvation predictions were almost comically bad. And yet, the very same year he conceded the bet, Ehrlich doubled down in another book, with another prediction that would prove untrue: Sure, his timeline had been a little off, he wrote, but “now the population bomb has detonated.” Despite one erroneous prediction after another, Ehrlich amassed an enormous following and received prestigious awards. Simon, meanwhile, became a standard-bearer for scholars who felt that Ehrlich had ignored economic principles. The kind of excessive regulations Ehrlich advocated, the Simon camp argued, would quell the very innovation that had delivered humanity from catastrophe. Both men became luminaries in their respective domains. Both were mistaken.

When economists later examined metal prices for every 10-year window from 1900 to 2008, during which time the world population quadrupled, they saw that Ehrlich would have won the bet 62 percent of the time. The catch: Commodity prices are a poor gauge of population effects, particularly over a single decade. The variable that both men were certain would vindicate their worldviews actually had little to do with those views. Prices waxed and waned with macroeconomic cycles.

Yet both men dug in. Each declared his faith in science and the undisputed primacy of facts. And each continued to miss the value of the other’s ideas. Ehrlich was wrong about the apocalypse, but right on aspects of environmental degradation. Simon was right about the influence of human ingenuity on food and energy supplies, but wrong in claiming that improvements in air and water quality validated his theories. Ironically, those improvements were bolstered through regulations pressed by Ehrlich and others.

Ideally, intellectual sparring partners “hone each other’s arguments so that they are sharper and better,” the Yale historian Paul Sabin wrote in The Bet. “The opposite happened with Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon.” As each man amassed more information for his own view, each became more dogmatic, and the inadequacies in his model of the world grew ever more stark.

The pattern is by now familiar. In the 30 years since Ehrlich sent Simon a check, the track record of expert forecasters—in science, in economics, in politics—is as dismal as ever. In business, esteemed (and lavishly compensated) forecasters routinely are wildly wrong in their predictions of everything from the next stock-market correction to the next housing boom. Reliable insight into the future is possible, however. It just requires a style of thinking that’s uncommon among experts who are certain that their deep knowledge has granted them a special grasp of what is to come.

The idea for the most important study ever conducted of expert predictions was sparked in 1984, at a meeting of a National Research Council committee on American-Soviet relations. The psychologist and political scientist Philip E. Tetlock was 30 years old, by far the most junior committee member. He listened intently as other members discussed Soviet intentions and American policies. Renowned experts delivered authoritative predictions, and Tetlock was struck by how many perfectly contradicted one another and were impervious to counterarguments.

Tetlock decided to put expert political and economic predictions to the test. With the Cold War in full swing, he collected forecasts from 284 highly educated experts who averaged more than 12 years of experience in their specialties. To ensure that the predictions were concrete, experts had to give specific probabilities of future events. Tetlock had to collect enough predictions that he could separate lucky and unlucky streaks from true skill. The project lasted 20 years, and comprised 82,361 probability estimates about the future.

The result: The experts were, by and large, horrific forecasters. Their areas of specialty, years of experience, and (for some) access to classified information made no difference. They were bad at short-term forecasting and bad at long-term forecasting. They were bad at forecasting in every domain. When experts declared that future events were impossible or nearly impossible, 15 percent of them occurred nonetheless. When they declared events to be a sure thing, more than one-quarter of them failed to transpire. As the Danish proverb warns, “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Read: What was the worst prediction of all time?

Even faced with their results, many experts never admitted systematic flaws in their judgment. When they missed wildly, it was a near miss; if just one little thing had gone differently, they would have nailed it. “There is often a curiously inverse relationship,” Tetlock concluded, “between how well forecasters thought they were doing and how well they did.”

Early predictions in Tetlock’s research pertained to the future of the Soviet Union. Some experts (usually liberals) saw Mikhail Gorbachev as an earnest reformer who would be able to change the Soviet Union and keep it intact for a while, and other experts (usually conservatives) felt that the Soviet Union was immune to reform and losing legitimacy. Both sides were partly right and partly wrong. Gorbachev did bring real reform, opening the Soviet Union to the world and empowering citizens. But those reforms unleashed pent-up forces in the republics outside Russia, where the system had lost legitimacy. The forces blew the Soviet Union apart. Both camps of experts were blindsided by the swift demise of the U.S.S.R.

One subgroup of scholars, however, did manage to see more of what was coming. Unlike Ehrlich and Simon, they were not vested in a single discipline. They took from each argument and integrated apparently contradictory worldviews. They agreed that Gorbachev was a real reformer and that the Soviet Union had lost legitimacy outside Russia. A few of those integrators saw that the end of the Soviet Union was close at hand and that real reforms would be the catalyst.

The integrators outperformed their colleagues in pretty much every way, but especially trounced them on long-term predictions. Eventually, Tetlock bestowed nicknames (borrowed from the philosopher Isaiah Berlin) on the experts he’d observed: The highly specialized hedgehogs knew “one big thing,” while the integrator foxes knew “many little things.”

Hedgehogs are deeply and tightly focused. Some have spent their career studying one problem. Like Ehrlich and Simon, they fashion tidy theories of how the world works based on observations through the single lens of their specialty. Foxes, meanwhile, “draw from an eclectic array of traditions, and accept ambiguity and contradiction,” Tetlock wrote. Where hedgehogs represent narrowness, foxes embody breadth.

Incredibly, the hedgehogs performed especially poorly on long-term predictions within their specialty. They got worse as they accumulated experience and credentials in their field. The more information they had to work with, the more easily they could fit any story into their worldview.

Unfortunately, the world’s most prominent specialists are rarely held accountable for their predictions, so we continue to rely on them even when their track records make clear that we should not. One study compiled a decade of annual dollar-to-euro exchange-rate predictions made by 22 international banks: Barclays, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and others. Each year, every bank predicted the end-of-year exchange rate. The banks missed every single change of direction in the exchange rate. In six of the 10 years, the true exchange rate fell outside the entire range of all 22 bank forecasts.

In 2005, Tetlock published his results, and they caught the attention of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, or IARPA, a government organization that supports research on the U.S. intelligence community’s most difficult challenges. In 2011, IARPA launched a four-year prediction tournament in which five researcher-led teams competed. Each team could recruit, train, and experiment however it saw fit. Predictions were due at 9 a.m. every day. The questions were hard: Will a European Union member withdraw by a target date? Will the Nikkei close above 9,500?

Tetlock, along with his wife and collaborator, the psychologist Barbara Mellers, ran a team named the Good Judgment Project. Rather than recruit decorated experts, they issued an open call for volunteers. After a simple screening, they invited 3,200 people to start forecasting. Among those, they identified a small group of the foxiest forecasters—bright people with extremely wide-ranging interests and unusually expansive reading habits, but no particular relevant background—and weighted team forecasts toward their predictions. They destroyed the competition.

Tetlock and Mellers found that not only were the best forecasters foxy as individuals, but they tended to have qualities that made them particularly effective collaborators. They were “curious about, well, really everything,” as one of the top forecasters told me. They crossed disciplines, and viewed their teammates as sources for learning, rather than peers to be convinced. When those foxes were later grouped into much smaller teams—12 members each—they became even more accurate. They outperformed—by a lot—a group of experienced intelligence analysts with access to classified data.

One forecast discussion involved a team trying to predict the highest single-day close for the exchange rate between the Ukrainian hryvnia and the U.S. dollar during an extremely volatile stretch in 2014. Would the rate be less than 10 hryvnia to a dollar, between 10 and 13, or more than 13? The discussion started with a team member offering percentages for each possibility, and sharing an Economist article. Another team member chimed in with historical data he’d found online, a Bloomberg link, and a bet that the rate would land between 10 and 13. A third teammate was convinced by the second’s argument. A fourth shared information about the dire state of Ukrainian finances, which he feared would devalue the hryvnia. A fifth noted that the United Nations Security Council was considering sending peacekeepers to the region, which he believed would buoy the currency.

Two days later, a team member with experience in finance saw that the hryvnia was strengthening amid events he’d thought would surely weaken it. He informed his teammates that this was exactly the opposite of what he’d expected, and that they should take it as a sign of something wrong in his understanding. (Tetlock told me that, when making an argument, foxes often use the word however, while hedgehogs favor moreover.) The team members finally homed in on “between 10 and 13” as the heavy favorite, and they were correct.

In Tetlock’s 20-year study, both the broad foxes and the narrow hedgehogs were quick to let a successful prediction reinforce their beliefs. But when an outcome took them by surprise, foxes were much more likely to adjust their ideas. Hedgehogs barely budged. Some made authoritative predictions that turned out to be wildly wrong—then updated their theories in the wrong direction. They became even more convinced of the original beliefs that had led them astray. The best forecasters, by contrast, view their own ideas as hypotheses in need of testing. If they make a bet and lose, they embrace the logic of a loss just as they would the reinforcement of a win. This is called, in a word, learning.

Atlantic

180 Comments on "The Peculiar Blindness of Experts"

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 6:10 am

“Voracious pest threatens China’s crops and could boost need for imports”
https://tinyurl.com/y4xkx4mv cnbc

“A crop-eating pest first detected in China about five months ago is spreading rapidly and could hurt production of key crops critical to the populous nation’s food supply, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Damage from the so-called fall armyworm, which gorges on corn, soybeans, cotton, rice, and dozens of other crops, could force China to import more corn, rice or soy to makeup for the shortfall. China is already dealing with a livestock crisis involving pork, one of its primary protein sources, putting Beijing is under greater pressure to respond to the armyworm. There are currently tariffs of 25% assessed on some key U.S. crops entering China, including soybeans.”

“USDA said most farmers in China lack the training and financial resources to manage against the armyworm effectively. It added “there is a high probability that the pest will spread across all of China’s grain production area within the next 12 months.” “It’s going to be very severe initially until management programs are in place,” said Allen Knutson, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service entomologist in Dallas. China is already dealing with a livestock crisis involving pork, one of its primary protein sources, putting Beijing is under greater pressure to respond to the armyworm. China has seen at least 129 cases of the African swine fever since August. Rabobank estimates up to 200 million animals could be affected and production could decline by 30%. As a result of the swine fever, China may need to increase the production of other proteins, including chicken. Also, the Asian country may be forced to boost imports of pork, including from the U.S. despite stiff retaliatory tariffs imposed by Beijing.”

Hello on Fri, 10th May 2019 7:11 am

>>> So, for the economy to expand, there must be oil production growth.

Not necessarily oil, just energy.

What I’m wondering is if this shale/fracking business can be exported to other regions of the world. It’s hard to believe that shale can only be found in Texas and North Dakota. Isn’t the world wide potential huge? So huge to make peakoil moot?

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 7:37 am

It takes a proper economy to do shale and the right economic stuff is critical. This is the same peak oil dynamic within no change to the resources verse reserves basis. It has not been show yet other energy can adequately replace oil. Currently it is only on the margin replacement is occurring.

makati1 on Fri, 10th May 2019 7:37 am

Davy, Pavlov’s dog. LOL Slurping up the USMSM propaganda by the barrel.

Did you notice that China is pushing the US aside across the world? Not exactly the sign of weakness. But, you have to pretend the US is still number one although it is way down the list in most areas.

GO TRUMP! TRUMP IN 2020! America’s Orange Godzilla! LMAO!

DerHundistLos on Fri, 10th May 2019 8:27 am

Trump and the neocons in his administration are setting the stage for war. There will not be any military action until next year to coincide with the election. After the 2018 midterms, Trump knows all too well his base is not enough to re-elect. Plus, anything to help Israel to ensure Evangelical unity.He needs something big to happen. Trump’s neocons remember what happened to G.W. Bush with Iraq War I. His popularity soared into the 70s, but he peaked too soon and lost re-election.

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 8:37 am

Makato whining again without a legitimate rebuttal supported by a relevant reference. Makato is an emotional wreck lately with all his core extremist ideas in tatters. Oh, and there is his dog with a Pavlov bone thing again something that sounds good but he doesn’t understand how to apply the concept.

I AM THE MOB on Fri, 10th May 2019 9:20 am

Clogg spamming this site with russian propaganda and the least trusted British tabloid news..

Its sad how pathetic he is..Next he will spamming amateur youtube videos..Anything to justify murder of innocent people..

I AM THE MOB on Fri, 10th May 2019 9:21 am

This site has turned into a dumpster fire..

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 9:33 am

Oops, sorry Makati1. I was projecting again. I just can’t stand the fact that the Zionist Empire is crashing and burning before my blind lying liberal eyes.

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 9:35 am

Go Tulsi!!!!

Make the Zionists Great Again!

JuanP on Fri, 10th May 2019 9:41 am

Just more of our low intelligence juanpee comments

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 9:33 am
Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 9:35 am

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 9:42 am

Juanpee. On a scale of 1-10 how horrible is your depression?

With 1 being asshole and 10 dumbass.

joe on Fri, 10th May 2019 9:47 am

The population bomb hit mother nature. Humans expanded and grew into areas not previously exploited. They both forgot that marginal income declines for each dollar investment overtime you must expand to grow. Humanity now stands with an age pyramid that is turning upside down. The old are too many, the young too few. Tech will help but cannot be answer because the resorces needed to give each adult on earth a fridge, car, phone enough food and free health are unsustainable to nature, humans of course might do fine, but theres a risk we might be the only large animal on earth left.

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 10:15 am

Sorry for losing my shit again everyone. Y’all know what they say. If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit.

I’m real good at the bullshit part. Brilliance aint my thang.

JuanP posted this on Fri, 10th May 2019 10:36 am

“It takes a proper economy to do shale and the right economic stuff is critical.”

Energy drives the economy. The economy does not create energy.

Your an idiot Juan.

JuanP on Fri, 10th May 2019 10:51 am

low IQ posting by juanpee

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 10:15 am

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 10:55 am

“It takes a proper economy to do shale and the right economic stuff is critical.”

This is the correct angle

“Energy drives the economy. The economy does not create energy.”

Bullshit, it takes both. Oil has little economic value without an economy. One need only look to your failed South America and see that in Venezuela. BTW, please go back to where you came from. The US does not want ungrateful alien leeches that do criminal behavior.

JuanP posted this on Fri, 10th May 2019 10:36 am “Your an idiot Juan.”

You got that right finally

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 10:58 am

“This site has turned into a dumpster fire..”

One way to put help put the fire out is for you to leave.

JuanP posting on Fri, 10th May 2019 11:21 am

“Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 10:58 am ”

Everyone here knows I’m the sole reason why PO.com is now a POS, just like me.

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 12:54 pm

JuanP on Fri, 10th May 2019 11:21 am

“Everyone here knows I’m the sole reason why PO.com is now a POS, just like me.”

juanpee, did Boney joe give you AIDS? You are always talking POS so now we have it why you are so angry. If you would quit the drugging and risky sex your wife would not have left you.

Not Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 3:46 pm

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 12:54 pm

Everyone knows JuanP is happily married and he doesn’t do drugs. Whoever stole my handle is a delusional dumbass lunatic.

Anonymouse on Fri, 10th May 2019 4:34 pm

Give it a rest prick face, your socking and whining is really getting out of hand. Go stack some of those old tires littering your yard. Go stare blankly at that wide open outhouse of yours, and wonder how you will ever attach a door to it. Maybe feed and water the surviving animals on that horror-show ‘farm’ of yours. OR better yet, just set them free, that would be the merciful thing to do. You know, something marginally useful.

Dumbass prick face.

Anonymouse on Fri, 10th May 2019 4:46 pm

“Everyone knows JuanP is happily married and he doesn’t do drugs. Whoever stole my handle is a delusional dumbass lunatic.“

I love you juan

makati1 on Fri, 10th May 2019 5:35 pm

Davy, The site’s biggest hypocrite. As I said before: “Apparently Davy has a very close resemblance to globalists, or, at least, narcissistic sociopathy. Pavlov’s dog. Slurping up the USMSM propaganda by the barrel.”

GO TRUMP! TRUMP IN 2020! America’s Orange Godzilla! LMAO!

makati1 on Fri, 10th May 2019 5:39 pm

BTW: Why is Davy fixated on sex? Not getting any? Even the goats run away? Oh well, he can always use the left or right. He is definitely a narcissistic sociopath. LOL

GO TRUMP! TRUMP IN 2020! America’s orange Godzilla.

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 5:48 pm

“Davy, The site’s biggest hypocrite.” “Pavlov’s dog. Slurping up the USMSM propaganda by the barrel.”

you don’t even make sense anymore dumbass

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 5:49 pm

“BTW: Why is Davy fixated on sex? Not getting any? Even the goats run away?”

makato, you are the one with the goat fucking fantasy, weirdo. I bet you have a favorite monkey

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 7:32 pm

Besides makato. Goat ass doesn’t excite me as much as it used to. That’s why I moved on to hanging out at truck stops. I loves me some gigantic ebony penis.

Yummy yummy yummy I luv cum on my tummy!

dumbass

makati1 on Fri, 10th May 2019 7:45 pm

“Narcissistic sociopath Davy lacks most traits that we would associate with normal human behavior such as empathy and self examination. Narcissism and sociopathy are generally inherent at birth, and they make up the bulk of a psychopath’s personality. Take these two traits away, and the psychopath no longer has a personality. Davy 100%!

Psychopaths often have very short attention spans, except when they are engaged in a predatory agenda. Davy does not care about normal human associations and interactions if he is not getting fuel for their narcissism from the exchange, i.e., the opportunity to be arrogant and use immature putdowns.

Davy has no real “friends”. Narc/sociopaths are invariably cowards, and will rarely fight on a level playing field. They will either run, stab you in the back if they can, or use other people to do their dirty work.” Perfect description of the Davy we all know. LOL

GO TRUMP! TRUMP IN 2020! America’s Orange Godzilla!

Not Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 7:51 pm

Anonymouse on Fri, 10th May 2019 4:46 pm

I used to love you juan, until I made up in my mind the delusional story that you were seeing Boney Joe. Now I hate you.

dumbass

makati1 on Fri, 10th May 2019 9:18 pm

The more I see and read, the more I increase my preps. The world is being attacked by the dying US in every direction. Tariffs, embargoes, military threats, sanctions. No real democracy safe from the collapsing empire.

Even American citizens are being ravaged by their own government. Lies so blatant, that they would be laughable if they were not so terrible. Inflation over 6% in the necessities. Dollar buying power is shrinking fast. Unemployment is over 10% in real numbers. Real taxes increasing. Freedom is a sick joke in the American Police State.

Such a change from the America I grew up in in the 40s, 50s and 60s. If you have the means, get out while you can.

GO TRUMP! TRUMP IN 2020! The Orange Godzilla destroying America.

Anonymouse on Fri, 10th May 2019 9:32 pm

Empire feeds on itself mak. But the amerikans have greasy hooks and tendrils extend to many places. My own country, has no meaningful sovereignty or independence from the amero-jew empire.

They( the amero-jewd) would rather see the world burnt to ash, than give up, surrender their power and ill-gotten wealth, or even share the world and its resources with those it considers its vassals and water carriers.

makati1 on Fri, 10th May 2019 10:30 pm

Anon, Most Jews seem to believe in the Armageddon and a better life in the eternal thereafter. The sooner they can promote that end, the better they think it will be for themselves. The joke is on them, but we pay for that delusion.

Religion is the poison that is killing the world. Greed comes right after. Christians and Muslims share the same god but look at the current situation. Or, is that “difference” just a contrived reason to grab resources and power? Hmm.

There appears to be no better world ahead. If we avoid a nuclear war, climate change will get us in the end. Nothing stops physics and other ‘natural’ laws. Trump cannot make the world, or even the US, better by telling it to be so. All the fake numbers do not cover up the reality of the decline. The coming crash. All we can do is try to ease our pain with preps. Good luck!

Cloggie on Sat, 11th May 2019 1:41 am

Empire dave snaps “Nasty Natzi war pig”

But not a word against the sadistic US behavior of raping smaller countries, with ever less success btw.lol In the eyes of breathtakingly hypocritical davy-punk (and his senior mobster), Amurrica can do what it wants, because you see, Amurrica is “exceptional”, the “policeman of the world”!

You are soon going to find out that you are not that all-powerful as you would like to imagine you are. Your navy is a 100 years old anachronism. Just like Argentina could have beaten the UK over the Falklands, if only they had had sufficient Exocet missiles, likewise Iran can easily defeat the US navy, because this time Russia and China will provide their proxy Iran with all the sophisticated firecrackers they will ever need.

As far as I’m concerned, I would love to see the US trapped in a war they must lose. I may be a white racialist, nevertheless I would love to see “the chinks” sending large numbers of US navy vessels to the bottom of the ocean, even if the crew were majority white. I hope that China replaces the globalist US as the next #1, because China is an ancient, traditionalist nation, with zero intent to destroy the character of their own nation, like the plastic parvenu does, that thought it could have it all.

If China wants to become the next #1 and deserve Australia and double its overpopulated territory, it needs to stick its neck out, take a risk and deal the first blow, either in the SCS or in the Gulf, or most likely in both.

Professor J. Averill Snoopington, IV on Sat, 11th May 2019 1:46 am

Message for poster named “Davy PrickFace”:

What explains your cock perseveration? You adore the cock (ebony) as evidenced by your frequent citations. You do realize this is a leading indicator of mental illness, and is most often associated with brain lesions and schizophrenia?

Numerous persons have urged you to seek immediate medical care for your various mental manifestations before you go “postal” at the Rolla, MO McDonald’s.

Signed,

Professor J. Averill Snoopington, IV

Cloggie on Sat, 11th May 2019 2:17 am

“What I’m wondering is if this shale/fracking business can be exported to other regions of the world. It’s hard to believe that shale can only be found in Texas and North Dakota. Isn’t the world wide potential huge? So huge to make peakoil moot?”

You just set one foot into the Third Carbon Age. Of course that potential is large. And the potential for UCG is even bigger. There are for thousands of years supplies left of carbon atoms to burn, that’s not the limiting factor. The atmosphere is the limiting factor.

Peak oil is a superstition for low-IQ morons who do not want to give up on their dream of peak-oil supply induced societal collapse, the have been preparing for for a decade. They thought they were smart and way ahead of the pack. they weren’t, they just hadn’t do their homework.

Here was my former peak oil guru and main force behind peakoil.nl in the Netherlands, Rembrandt Koppelaar.

In 2011 he quietly kissed peak oil (peak carbon rather) supply goodbye:

https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/04/27/rembrandt-koppelaar-and-the-demise-of-peak-oil/

I no longer consider him my guru, but I am on exactly the same trail as he is:

https://www.amazon.com/Tesla-Revolution-Why-Losing-Energy-ebook/dp/B06XWM5MDW/ref=sr_1_fkmrnull_1

Cloggie on Sat, 11th May 2019 3:02 am

Breakfast with the DailyMail, the political thermometer in Britain’s, ah well…

Here an article, whose importance you can easily overlook:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7016575/Have-Got-News-pulled-minute-impartiality-concerns.html

“Have I Got News For You is pulled at the last minute for ‘Brexit bias’: Beeb axes show after ‘impartiality’ concerns over Change UK leader Heidi Allen’s appearance ahead of EU elections”

This is shocking! The Beeb absolutely has no problem with disseminating partial propaganda, yet they ax Remain-propaganda.

Do you understand this?! The BBC has become pro-Brexit, that’s a giant U-turn. OK, there is no such thing as a giant U-turn, after all, 180 degrees are 180 degrees, but you get the point.

Yesterday, to the astonishment of empire dave, the BBC said in its flagship news show Newsnight, that the US was the old superpower and China its successor super power. Rest assured that the BBC doesn’t like to admit that.

So how to interpret this?

There can be no doubt that all the “news” in the US empire, including the Beeb, the ARD/ZDF in Germany, NOS in Holland, etc., is originating from a single source:

https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2018/07/29/german-media-insiders-german-news-is-fake-news-and-pentagon-propaganda/

…the so-called “free press”.

What does it mean that the BBC has become pro-Brexit? Answer: ZOG has given up, not only on the world, but also on the West and on continental Europe, but not on Britain.

https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2019/01/07/the-good-news-zog-is-dying/

They (US+UK) are preparing for a retreat into Orwell’s Oceania…

https://documents1940.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/george_orwell_map.jpg

…because they have concluded that continental Europe is going to be “fascist” (populist) anyway and is a lost cause, just like Russia and China can’t be integrated anymore in a single world order (NWO), run by English speaking oligarchs.

So now the Anglos are opting for racial bolshevism in a single country only (Anglosphere), just like after the war, Joe Stalin had given up on global bolshevism, and opted for communism in the eastern block only. Because he knew that was all he could hope for.

To illustrate the ambitions of the Anglo media elite, here a tell-it-all jubilant message about what happened to the House of Windsor: it has become globalist-of-colour:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7016675/STEPHEN-GLOVER-picture-majestic-revolution.html

“The picture of a majestic revolution. It’s a groundbreaking image of equality – STEPHEN GLOVER celebrates the Royals’ glorious ability to adapt, but suggests to the ferociously private parents: tread carefully on tradition”

The Anglo-Zionist race-mixing agenda has reached the highest level, The Crown!

Rejoice!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHQpeGzio4k

(Britain)

Of course there are still some morons who don’t like what is happening…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7015969/Danny-Baker-tweeted-royal-baby-two-days-posting-racist-monkey-tweet.html

…but they can be sacked, as a warning to others.

As a continental European, that’s a very reassuring thought! At least we are going to escape. Rejoice!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rySvIDZ38Uk

(Germany)

The Church Lady on Sat, 11th May 2019 3:13 am

Professor D. PrickFace

I like your interpretation. I see you have the creative “juices” flowing:

“Yummy yummy yummy I luv cum on my tummy!”

FYI, the original version contains a slight modification for the preposition:

Yummy yummy yummy I luv cum IN my tummy!

makati1 on Sat, 11th May 2019 3:48 am

Lies for $$$$: “Wilkerson, who served as former chief of staff to US Secretary of State Colin Powell, described in an interview with The Real News that hyping the China threat taps into a well-trodden American pastime of fear-mongering in order to squeeze more precious taxpayer dollars towards inflated budgets.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-10/us-army-colonel-pentagons-latest-china-report-budget-ploy-bleed-taxpayer

“The [US] army could not expand; it could not take on a real enemy today without massive conscription and full mobilization. And I wonder if the nation could even stand that today. And so, you’re looking at a situation where the only thing [the DOD] can ask for, in terms of fixing any of this, is money— more and more money.” An army of Snowflakes, druggies and mental midgets. LOL

Keep sucking up that US Koolaid while you watch your taxes go up and your standard of living go down, Amerikans.

GO TRUMP! TRUMP IN 2020! Amerika’s orange Godzilla! Double the US debt! GO FOR IT! LMAO!

Cloggie on Sat, 11th May 2019 4:07 am

@makati, yes colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, I remember this US dissident from a surprising Dutch documentary about the “Israel Lobby”, quoted by many rightwing sites, but made by the very leftist Dutch MSM VPRO (they could be Corbyn allies). Wilkinson basically described the inner working of ZOG:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yw_v3hqtCl0

[15:48]

The documentary is (obviously) English spoken and worth a watch, for those not up to speed with the inner workings of the US Deep State.

Note, the VPRO only scratches the surface and only deals with the Iraq war, not with the race-mixing agenda, the VPRO supports.

Yet, they touch on a forbidden topic: the power of the Jews in the US and hence in the West.

Cloggie on Sat, 11th May 2019 4:21 am

That only applies to religious, orthodox Jews, not Henry Ford’s International Jews (“the world’s foremost problem”), who are secular and interested in power only and not Armageddon. Jews in general are the most secular people you can imagine and don’t have that pious religious sentiment; they love to make jokes about that. Leftist elite Anglos are very similar btw, mirror images of the Jews:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJUhlRoBL8M

JuanP on Sat, 11th May 2019 4:28 am

Wow, these are some weido postings by juanpee. juanpee has serious sexual perversions. He thinks they are cute.

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 7:32 pm

Not Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 7:51 pm

Professor J. Averill Snoopington, IV on Sat, 11th May 2019 1:46 am

The Church Lady on Sat, 11th May 2019 3:13 am

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 4:31 am

“My own country, has no meaningful sovereignty or independence from the amero-jew empire.”

The dumbass anti-American Kanadian annoy does not take responsibility for the part his “own countrymen” play in his alligator tear whine by being part of it. He also does not take the responsibility for the riches that have enriched him. What a poor asshole.

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 4:35 am

?Anon, Most Jews seem to believe in the Armageddon and a better life in the eternal thereafter.”

makato says “most” Jews when it is “some” jews are apocalyptic. The same is true with Christians and Muslims. It is better to say most Jews are not very religious as is the case increasingly with Christians. This is typical of the fraudulent extremist shit coming out of makato.

Cloggie on Sat, 11th May 2019 4:37 am

Ah, sure Hitler was being proactively defensive but you skip the part about “lebensraum” and world domination of the master race. That is clearly offensive, dumbass.

Oh dear, after seven years of repeated request from my side to empire dave to give me his views about the history of WW2, he finally gives in. What could possibly go wrong? LOL

Lebensraum was a phrase from a notorious book, Dolfie wrote in the Landsberg slammer in the twenties, long before he got to power. It was a thought crime only. He merely was dreaming of what ALL the Europeans had factually done, namely dividing most of the planet among themselves, with Britain being the Champ Lebensraum, with 25% of the planet. The only place left was the Ukraine. But again, that was in the twenties, when Russia was destroyed as the result of a devastating civil war. The truth is that after 1933, Hitler NEVER referred to “Lebensraum” again. By 1938, the USSR had a larger economy than Germany (13% vs 11% global GDP, US had a staggering 29%). He was scared to death by the USSR. [*]

You can deny the gas chambers but you cannot deny the killing of all kinds of peoples by the Natzies, dumbass. The killing was methodical and document in so many cases you have no way of covering it up.

There was a war going on, you lying scumbag, a war imposed by the US, the only one with the means to really set up a world empire. It was the US that methodically killed German civilians from 5 km altitude, not the Germans, prick. You have no way to cover that up. It is always the same: remain in abstract generalizations and NEVER go into detail.

Most of the world is over the WW’s that you live and breathe daily you sick fuck. You got your ass kicked twice and you can’t come to grips with that Natzi.

You are right, I can’t get to grips with that, but fortunately, you Euro trash are being wiped out by your own kosher masters (who, while they are at it, deprive themselves from the only tool they could hope to conquer the world with.LOL). I hope that China gives you a good beating, on their way to become the next #1, according to the Beeb (I for once believe them).

“WW2 was the war, intentionally masterminded by the US, to set up empire.”
Bullshit you rabid manic. LMFAO at your obsessions.

Well, even dummies like you can’t deny that that US empire was de facto the case. And very reliable insiders can confirm that that was the intention:

https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/25/chamberlain-and-the-forrestal-diaries/

“WW3 will be the war to remove empire from history and from our brains.”
White racist Nazti

That’s mr Natzi to you.

Enjoy your demise, I certainly will.LOL

Cloggie on Sat, 11th May 2019 4:39 am

[*] Here is best proof you can get that “Lebensraum” was never a motive behind 1941-Barbarossa:

https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/26/justice-jackson-has-to-admit/

“Justice” Jackson admits to his partners in crime that he can’t find any evidence that the Germans were plotting for agressive war of conquest.

And he had al the motives to find such proof.

QED.

joe on Sat, 11th May 2019 5:00 am

Please po.com, get rid of this comments section. Your site will be much better off. This method of posting is outdated and clearly only attractive for insane people

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 5:00 am

“But not a word against the sadistic US behavior of raping smaller countries”
Bullshit liar, I talk about bringing the troops home in an orderly fashion not walking away as you would like. Vacuums are not safe especially with a Putin Russia or a Xi China. Putin is a mafia don and Xi an emperor wannabe. Both bent on global domination if they could. I have also voiced the opinion that most of the recent US wars post Iraq 1 were illegitimate. The disgusting angry anti-American cloggo, should be happy about those wars because they helped bring down the superpower the US had and placed the world now into a multipolar world. It actually destroyed the globalists chance of success through a superpower arrangement because it caused a resurgence of Russia through Putin. Putin stopped the globalist almost singlehandedly. BTW there are more globalist in Euroland than the US. The US has a tendency for isolationism. Cloggo is a lying sack of shit and increasingly deep in delusions with your unaccountable extremism.

“In the eyes of breathtakingly hypocritical davy-punk (and his senior mobster), Amurrica can do what it wants, because you see, Amurrica is “exceptional”, the “policeman of the world”!”
Now he uses the childish putdowns he whines about.

“You are soon going to find out that you are not that all-powerful as you would like to imagine you are. Your navy is a 100 years old anachronism. Just like Argentina could have beaten the UK over the Falklands, if only they had had sufficient Exocet missiles, likewise Iran can easily defeat the US navy, because this time Russia and China will provide their proxy Iran with all the sophisticated firecrackers they will ever need.”
Cloggo is stupid about military matters just like makato. Missiles are going to win the war he thinks. LOL

“As far as I’m concerned, I would love to see the US trapped in a war they must lose. I may be a white racialist, nevertheless I would love to see “the chinks” sending large numbers of US navy vessels to the bottom of the ocean, even if the crew were majority white.”
War loving white racist Natzi shit that cloggo is full of. He wants respect but he is actually a disgusting hateful person. He is full of resentment and wants Empire but whines about it. He wants millions of fat lazy Eurotards to play war games. He actually speaks of millions of casualties of the past Euro wars as an example of greatness. What a stinking lying sack of shit cloggo is.

“I hope that China replaces the globalist US as the next #1, because China is an ancient, traditionalist nation, with zero intent to destroy the character of their own nation, like the plastic parvenu does, that thought it could have it all.”
You lust for war and death in every sentence you hateful lying sack of shit

“If China wants to become the next #1 and deserve Australia and double its overpopulated territory, it needs to stick its neck out, take a risk and deal the first blow, either in the SCS or in the Gulf, or most likely in both.”
He even talks like his Fuhrer about lebensraum but this time it is with Asia and a hated Anglo country Australia. Cloggo hate anything Anglo even though we saved his ass twice. He can’t stand the thought of getting ass kicked twice and getting saved twice.

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 5:07 am

“Peak oil is a superstition for low-IQ morons who do not want to give up on their dream of peak-oil supply induced societal collapse, the have been preparing for for a decade. They thought they were smart and way ahead of the pack. they weren’t, they just hadn’t do their homework.”

Cloggo is actually not very smart because his smarts get all tied up in his agenda. This is the case with so many people who have intelligence but don’t know how to use it properly. Cloggo is a poster child for this. Peak oil is alive and well but its immediacy is not as close as we once thought. Its effects were adapted by shale and other unconventionals combined with a new normal of economics through central bank intervention. Yet, declining economics combined with depleting resources combined with the impotence of renewables is a death spell eventually. It all points to the biggest problem which is human behavior and especially the cloggo type that says tech will save us there are no problems. He says this because he thinks euroland will become a new and great empire because of this. Empire is all the cloggo cares about.

Joe Mama on Sat, 11th May 2019 5:13 am

Then what are you doing here Joe Mama?

The Peculiar Blindness of Experts

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