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Page added on May 7, 2019

The Peculiar Blindness of Experts

The bet was on, and it was over the fate of humanity. On one side was the Stanford biologist Paul R. Ehrlich. In his 1968 best seller, The Population Bomb, Ehrlich insisted that it was too late to prevent a doomsday apocalypse resulting from overpopulation. Resource shortages would cause hundreds of millions of starvation deaths within a decade. It was cold, hard math: The human population was growing exponentially; the food supply was not. Ehrlich was an accomplished butterfly specialist. He knew that nature did not regulate animal populations delicately. Populations exploded, blowing past the available resources, and then crashed.

In his book, Ehrlich played out hypothetical scenarios that represented “the kinds of disasters that will occur.” In the worst-case scenario, famine rages across the planet. Russia, China, and the United States are dragged into nuclear war, and the resulting environmental degradation soon extinguishes the human race. In the “cheerful” scenario, population controls begin. Famine spreads, and countries teeter, but the major death wave ends in the mid-1980s. Only half a billion or so people die of starvation. “I challenge you to create one more optimistic,” Ehrlich wrote, adding that he would not count scenarios involving benevolent aliens bearing care packages.

The economist Julian Simon took up Ehrlich’s challenge. Technology—water-control techniques, hybridized seeds, management strategies—had revolutionized agriculture, and global crop yields were increasing. To Simon, more people meant more good ideas about how to achieve a sustainable future. So he proposed a wager. Ehrlich could choose five metals that he expected to become more expensive as resources were depleted and chaos ensued over the next decade. Both men agreed that commodity prices were a fine proxy for the effects of population growth, and they set the stakes at $1,000 worth of Ehrlich’s five metals. If, 10 years hence, prices had gone down, Ehrlich would have to pay the difference in value to Simon. If prices went up, Simon would be on the hook for the difference. The bet was made official in 1980.

In October 1990, Simon found a check for $576.07 in his mailbox. Ehrlich got smoked. The price of every one of the metals had declined. In the 1960s, 50 out of every 100,000 global citizens died annually from famine; by the 1990s, that number was 2.6.

Ehrlich’s starvation predictions were almost comically bad. And yet, the very same year he conceded the bet, Ehrlich doubled down in another book, with another prediction that would prove untrue: Sure, his timeline had been a little off, he wrote, but “now the population bomb has detonated.” Despite one erroneous prediction after another, Ehrlich amassed an enormous following and received prestigious awards. Simon, meanwhile, became a standard-bearer for scholars who felt that Ehrlich had ignored economic principles. The kind of excessive regulations Ehrlich advocated, the Simon camp argued, would quell the very innovation that had delivered humanity from catastrophe. Both men became luminaries in their respective domains. Both were mistaken.

When economists later examined metal prices for every 10-year window from 1900 to 2008, during which time the world population quadrupled, they saw that Ehrlich would have won the bet 62 percent of the time. The catch: Commodity prices are a poor gauge of population effects, particularly over a single decade. The variable that both men were certain would vindicate their worldviews actually had little to do with those views. Prices waxed and waned with macroeconomic cycles.

Yet both men dug in. Each declared his faith in science and the undisputed primacy of facts. And each continued to miss the value of the other’s ideas. Ehrlich was wrong about the apocalypse, but right on aspects of environmental degradation. Simon was right about the influence of human ingenuity on food and energy supplies, but wrong in claiming that improvements in air and water quality validated his theories. Ironically, those improvements were bolstered through regulations pressed by Ehrlich and others.

Ideally, intellectual sparring partners “hone each other’s arguments so that they are sharper and better,” the Yale historian Paul Sabin wrote in The Bet. “The opposite happened with Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon.” As each man amassed more information for his own view, each became more dogmatic, and the inadequacies in his model of the world grew ever more stark.

The pattern is by now familiar. In the 30 years since Ehrlich sent Simon a check, the track record of expert forecasters—in science, in economics, in politics—is as dismal as ever. In business, esteemed (and lavishly compensated) forecasters routinely are wildly wrong in their predictions of everything from the next stock-market correction to the next housing boom. Reliable insight into the future is possible, however. It just requires a style of thinking that’s uncommon among experts who are certain that their deep knowledge has granted them a special grasp of what is to come.

The idea for the most important study ever conducted of expert predictions was sparked in 1984, at a meeting of a National Research Council committee on American-Soviet relations. The psychologist and political scientist Philip E. Tetlock was 30 years old, by far the most junior committee member. He listened intently as other members discussed Soviet intentions and American policies. Renowned experts delivered authoritative predictions, and Tetlock was struck by how many perfectly contradicted one another and were impervious to counterarguments.

Tetlock decided to put expert political and economic predictions to the test. With the Cold War in full swing, he collected forecasts from 284 highly educated experts who averaged more than 12 years of experience in their specialties. To ensure that the predictions were concrete, experts had to give specific probabilities of future events. Tetlock had to collect enough predictions that he could separate lucky and unlucky streaks from true skill. The project lasted 20 years, and comprised 82,361 probability estimates about the future.

The result: The experts were, by and large, horrific forecasters. Their areas of specialty, years of experience, and (for some) access to classified information made no difference. They were bad at short-term forecasting and bad at long-term forecasting. They were bad at forecasting in every domain. When experts declared that future events were impossible or nearly impossible, 15 percent of them occurred nonetheless. When they declared events to be a sure thing, more than one-quarter of them failed to transpire. As the Danish proverb warns, “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Read: What was the worst prediction of all time?

Even faced with their results, many experts never admitted systematic flaws in their judgment. When they missed wildly, it was a near miss; if just one little thing had gone differently, they would have nailed it. “There is often a curiously inverse relationship,” Tetlock concluded, “between how well forecasters thought they were doing and how well they did.”

Early predictions in Tetlock’s research pertained to the future of the Soviet Union. Some experts (usually liberals) saw Mikhail Gorbachev as an earnest reformer who would be able to change the Soviet Union and keep it intact for a while, and other experts (usually conservatives) felt that the Soviet Union was immune to reform and losing legitimacy. Both sides were partly right and partly wrong. Gorbachev did bring real reform, opening the Soviet Union to the world and empowering citizens. But those reforms unleashed pent-up forces in the republics outside Russia, where the system had lost legitimacy. The forces blew the Soviet Union apart. Both camps of experts were blindsided by the swift demise of the U.S.S.R.

One subgroup of scholars, however, did manage to see more of what was coming. Unlike Ehrlich and Simon, they were not vested in a single discipline. They took from each argument and integrated apparently contradictory worldviews. They agreed that Gorbachev was a real reformer and that the Soviet Union had lost legitimacy outside Russia. A few of those integrators saw that the end of the Soviet Union was close at hand and that real reforms would be the catalyst.

The integrators outperformed their colleagues in pretty much every way, but especially trounced them on long-term predictions. Eventually, Tetlock bestowed nicknames (borrowed from the philosopher Isaiah Berlin) on the experts he’d observed: The highly specialized hedgehogs knew “one big thing,” while the integrator foxes knew “many little things.”

Hedgehogs are deeply and tightly focused. Some have spent their career studying one problem. Like Ehrlich and Simon, they fashion tidy theories of how the world works based on observations through the single lens of their specialty. Foxes, meanwhile, “draw from an eclectic array of traditions, and accept ambiguity and contradiction,” Tetlock wrote. Where hedgehogs represent narrowness, foxes embody breadth.

Incredibly, the hedgehogs performed especially poorly on long-term predictions within their specialty. They got worse as they accumulated experience and credentials in their field. The more information they had to work with, the more easily they could fit any story into their worldview.

Unfortunately, the world’s most prominent specialists are rarely held accountable for their predictions, so we continue to rely on them even when their track records make clear that we should not. One study compiled a decade of annual dollar-to-euro exchange-rate predictions made by 22 international banks: Barclays, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and others. Each year, every bank predicted the end-of-year exchange rate. The banks missed every single change of direction in the exchange rate. In six of the 10 years, the true exchange rate fell outside the entire range of all 22 bank forecasts.

In 2005, Tetlock published his results, and they caught the attention of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, or IARPA, a government organization that supports research on the U.S. intelligence community’s most difficult challenges. In 2011, IARPA launched a four-year prediction tournament in which five researcher-led teams competed. Each team could recruit, train, and experiment however it saw fit. Predictions were due at 9 a.m. every day. The questions were hard: Will a European Union member withdraw by a target date? Will the Nikkei close above 9,500?

Tetlock, along with his wife and collaborator, the psychologist Barbara Mellers, ran a team named the Good Judgment Project. Rather than recruit decorated experts, they issued an open call for volunteers. After a simple screening, they invited 3,200 people to start forecasting. Among those, they identified a small group of the foxiest forecasters—bright people with extremely wide-ranging interests and unusually expansive reading habits, but no particular relevant background—and weighted team forecasts toward their predictions. They destroyed the competition.

Tetlock and Mellers found that not only were the best forecasters foxy as individuals, but they tended to have qualities that made them particularly effective collaborators. They were “curious about, well, really everything,” as one of the top forecasters told me. They crossed disciplines, and viewed their teammates as sources for learning, rather than peers to be convinced. When those foxes were later grouped into much smaller teams—12 members each—they became even more accurate. They outperformed—by a lot—a group of experienced intelligence analysts with access to classified data.

One forecast discussion involved a team trying to predict the highest single-day close for the exchange rate between the Ukrainian hryvnia and the U.S. dollar during an extremely volatile stretch in 2014. Would the rate be less than 10 hryvnia to a dollar, between 10 and 13, or more than 13? The discussion started with a team member offering percentages for each possibility, and sharing an Economist article. Another team member chimed in with historical data he’d found online, a Bloomberg link, and a bet that the rate would land between 10 and 13. A third teammate was convinced by the second’s argument. A fourth shared information about the dire state of Ukrainian finances, which he feared would devalue the hryvnia. A fifth noted that the United Nations Security Council was considering sending peacekeepers to the region, which he believed would buoy the currency.

Two days later, a team member with experience in finance saw that the hryvnia was strengthening amid events he’d thought would surely weaken it. He informed his teammates that this was exactly the opposite of what he’d expected, and that they should take it as a sign of something wrong in his understanding. (Tetlock told me that, when making an argument, foxes often use the word however, while hedgehogs favor moreover.) The team members finally homed in on “between 10 and 13” as the heavy favorite, and they were correct.

In Tetlock’s 20-year study, both the broad foxes and the narrow hedgehogs were quick to let a successful prediction reinforce their beliefs. But when an outcome took them by surprise, foxes were much more likely to adjust their ideas. Hedgehogs barely budged. Some made authoritative predictions that turned out to be wildly wrong—then updated their theories in the wrong direction. They became even more convinced of the original beliefs that had led them astray. The best forecasters, by contrast, view their own ideas as hypotheses in need of testing. If they make a bet and lose, they embrace the logic of a loss just as they would the reinforcement of a win. This is called, in a word, learning.

Atlantic

180 Comments on "The Peculiar Blindness of Experts"

Antius on Thu, 9th May 2019 10:06 am

Asteroid mining. Literally trillions of dollars’ worth of precious metals in even a small m-type asteroid. And there are millions of asteroids this size or larger in the inner solar system.

Consider also solar energy. In high Earth orbit, intense solar energy, with a flux of 1350W/m2 is available over 99% of the time (it is only briefly cut-off by the Earth’s shadow). That is over 10 times the average solar flux for European countries and essentially no intermittency problem. You can generate continuous power using PV panels and intense heat simply by focusing the suns energy using a tin-foil mirror. No back-up plants or storage needed.
———————————————————————————————————————

https://mashable.com/2012/04/26/planetary-resources-asteroid-mining-trillions/?europe=true

‘Meet Amun 3554. Doesn’t look like much, right? Little more than a mile wide, it’s one of the smallest M-class (metal-bearing) asteroids yet discovered… Amun is a goldmine — well, not gold so much. But it does contain a cool $8 trillion worth of platinum, an essential precious metal used in everything from jewelry to fuel cells to computers (and one that’s currently trading at the same rate as gold — $1500 an ounce.) On Earth, only a few hundred tonnes of the stuff are produced every year.
The $8 trillion figure is an estimate based on observations by John S. Lewis, professor of planetary science, author of Mining the Sky: Untold Riches from the Asteroids, Comets, and Planets, and now a consultant to Planetary Resources. He also found 3554 Amun to contain another $8 trillion in iron and nickel, and a mere $6 trillion worth of cobalt.
So, the total payout from one unassuming asteroid? $20,000,000,000,000.’

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 10:16 am

Antius, we might want to first figure out how to stop asteroids from hitting the earth.

joe on Thu, 9th May 2019 10:18 am

Macron only got elected because the French were frightening and brow beaten by media not to follow the UK and US and vote for patriots. The USSR fell and socialism gained back its internationalis tilt. Stalinism was the foil of the Comintern not its foundation. The EUSSR is the sign of things to come. Unless patriots stand up and be counted.

Antius on Thu, 9th May 2019 10:26 am

“Macron only got elected because the French were frightening and brow beaten by media not to follow the UK and US and vote for patriots.”

I’m confused. When did the UK ever elect a patriot? In fact, when in recent memory, did it elect anyone that wasn’t a ZOG shithead?

Cloggie on Thu, 9th May 2019 11:03 am

the populist trend is more likely to undermine rather than reinforce European unity.

The populists say that they no longer want to abolish the EU. Bye-bye Frexit, we are going to have a populist Europe instead, although probably less integrated:

https://www.trtworld.com/europe/le-pen-drops-frexit-in-favour-of-an-eu-of-the-far-right-25868

But just to be on the safe side, the populists do not need to win in order to make a mark. I always use the quip on populist sites in Holland and Germany: “we need a CDU-AFD government… the AFD to keep the CDU from blowing up Germany and the CDU to keep the AFD from blowing up Europe”.

This is exactly the situation we already have in Austria. Conservative OVP (33%) and populist FPO (28%). No tendency to leave the EU there, but they do have a strong anti-immigration policy in place:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_border_barrier

The entire Balkan btw is now one huge fence. Influx of gate crashers is almost zero to Europe. The ones that are in Europe are stuck in Greece. And Turkey keeps them from coming, against a stiff fee.

Auntie Merkel can scream what she wants, but the far less pc southern European states keep their doors closed. Illegal immigration is no longer an issue. Problem solved.

But then there is legal immigration, promoted by business. It is high time to reign in business. Women need to go home anyway and attend their 2.1 children rather than hacking away on a stupid computer.

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 11:18 am

“The populists say that they no longer want to abolish the EU”

Populist are a diverse group without a common purpose. Their supporters are also a diverse group with different agendas. Some populist might say they don’t want!to abolish the EU but they want radical changes that will undermine the EU.

DerHundistLos on Thu, 9th May 2019 11:22 am

What, Me Worry? Humans Are Blind to Imminent Environmental Collapse

“A curious thing about H. sapiens is that we are clever enough to document — in exquisite detail — various trends that portend the collapse of modern civilization, yet not nearly smart enough to extricate ourselves from our self-induced predicament.”

“Too bad. Biodiversity loss may turn out to be the sleeper issue of the century. It is caused by many individual but interacting factors — habitat loss, climate change, intensive pesticide use and various forms of industrial pollution, for example, suppress both insect and bird populations. But the overall driver is what an ecologist might call the “competitive displacement” of non-human life by the inexorable growth of the human enterprise.”

“On a finite planet where millions of species share the same space and depend on the same finite products of photosynthesis, the continuous expansion of one species necessarily drives the contraction and extinction of others. (Politicians take note — there is always a conflict between human population/economic expansion and “protection of the environment.”)”

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/11/16/humans-blind-imminent-environmental-collapse/

Cloggie on Thu, 9th May 2019 11:26 am

Portrait of Salvini (English):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yhjyNXvqr4

BBC Newsnight is not amused:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mQUh6mjKvk

Marine le Pen praising Salvini:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0Qomf_1uFc

The most encouraging aspect is that every right-winger seems to understand that we need a European alt-right (and even global alt-right) and NOT a series of wannabee Hitlers, who all think their country is the best. And they all understand the importance of Russia as a key ally and the love is mutual. We need hard-core Euro-nationalism, a compromise between old-school nationalism and pan-European solidarity.

And the US alt-right is ready not only for Europe, but for Russia too:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsF5RFDme5c

Putin and his adherence to the Gaullist Europe of the Fatherlands:

https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/12/03/paris-berlin-moscow/

There is absolutely nothing unrealistic about PBM, it is just that some status-quo-loving Ozark goat farming ZOG-bots don’t want to see PBM happen and therefore claim it IS not going to happen.

I’m saying that the old pre-1939 European grandeur is going to be restored and if selected Americans are lucky, they can join as well. Davy needs not apply, he can team up with his “beautiful Amazonians”. Anything else would be raysist and empire dave is glad he is not like that.

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 11:55 am

Cloggo, you are getting the cart ahead of the horse. Nowhere is populism in solid control and nowhere is there even a hint of PBM. There is no common army either. The economy is a roller coaster. Then there is
Cloggo with endless cherry picked points that he weaves into an imaginary PBM mosaic on the ceiling of his imaginary racist cathedral. My life is concerned with the local if I debate your PBM nonsense it is because shooting down fantasy is enjoyable. This is especially the case with someone like you Cloggo that lives, breaths, and dreams my destruction. This anti-American/Anglo hatred is on all levels. It consists of history revisions and distortions of current events. You need to be put down intellectually like a wounded animal. You are obsessed with hate and resentment that blinds objective thought. You are a source of what
Is wrong in the world.

Cloggie on Thu, 9th May 2019 12:48 pm

There is no common army either.

Despite all the accusations of the EU being a “centralist monster”, the truth is that it is very thin roof over resourceful national states that exists for centuries.

EU = 30,000 civil servants and merely 1% EU GDB budget.

Yet…

As an integration force it is superb. Thanks to European subsidies in a no time a European aerospace industry was created that is long on par with the American one (Airbus-Boeing).

Satellite market, same thing. For many years, ESA had more than 50% of the global satellite launch market. Galileo-GPS.

With renewable energy, the energy of the future, we are way ahead of you.

The EU already has 1.5 million national soldiers. All we need to do is integrate these armies, they don’t need to be build from scratch and we’re just as much as a competitor as you are, with higher morale. Europeans merrily kill each other by the millions, where Americans throw the towel in the ring after 40,000 whacked.

https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing-european-union.asp

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1985/05/05/their-wehrmacht-was-better-than-our-army/0b2cfe73-68f4-4bc3-a62d-7626f6382dbd/?utm_term=.ac5aac28f353

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-01/chinese-admiral-wants-sink-two-us-aircraft-carriers-over-south-china-sea

“”What the United States fears the most is taking casualties,” Admiral Lou declared.”

Won’t be long until we will be your protector, rather than the other way around… because a substantial number of Americans, on second thoughts, will prefer our company rather than that of Washington.

For solid reasons.

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 1:04 pm

Cloggo, you euros and China have not taken significant casualties for many decade. Even Russia it has been since the USSR in Afghanistan. You are full of it as usual. The US knows how to fight from a routine of experience. This is good in regards to readiness and bad in terms of legitimacy. The troops are proven the civilian leadership’s wars not. You are a joke with your history revisions and hurt pride. You would think someone your age would have maturity to rise above petty nationalism but that is not the case with you.

Antius on Thu, 9th May 2019 1:44 pm

Probably a good thing Europe does not have an army at present. If Macron had control of such a thing, he would sent it marching against Hungary like some new age Napoleon. The guy is an arrogant shit.

DerHundistLos on Thu, 9th May 2019 3:29 pm

TRUMP VIES WITH REASAN AS WORST ENEMY OF WILDLIFE

“The Trump administration listed fewer animals and plants as endangered or threatened in Trump’s first two years in office than any president since Ronald Reagan when the notorious anti-environmentalist James Watt presided over the Interior Department.

Under Trump, the Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have listed just 17 species as endangered or threatened, the worst record of protection in a president’s first two years since the Reagan administration protected a dozen species.

Since the Endangered Species Act was signed into law by former President Richard Nixon in 1973, at least 47 species have gone extinct while waiting for protection.

“We are in the midst of an extinction crisis, and there is an extensive backlog of imperiled species waiting for protection,” said Elise Bennett, an attorney for the Center for Biological Diversity.”

https://www.salon.com/2019/05/06/trump-vies-with-reagan-as-worst-enemy-of-wildlife_partner/

FuelShortageComing on Thu, 9th May 2019 3:32 pm

There is no future if we don’t start with a massive exterminate of the shit skin. It means that you exterminate the most useless race. That will be the Blacks, Arabs, Latino, Indian.

We should stop doing trade with the shit skin first. We could get the Chinese on board onto the process of extermination. We need to stop selling anything to the shit skins close the borders and kill them as soon as the cross the border.

Once we kill all the Blacks, we mode back to Africa and build a real civilization there. Global cooling is coming and we will need Africa land to grow food. Might as well sgart right away and exterminate the dumb nigger now. Nobody like nigger anyways.

union-of-muzzie-lovers-of-america-AKA-fmr-paultard on Thu, 9th May 2019 3:48 pm

we are tards and supertards here and i love you guys. i’m telling you this because i love you. you need to back off interacting with other tards IRL because it’s spring season mating aggression. my friend is already unfriending me and it’s bad out there. peas. this has been a PSA. we’re tards we look out for each other.

ps: imam spencer (pbup) is sick. let’s hope he wasn’t poisoned by a muzzi. Imam “MARC” is taking up the slack and Asia Bibi is free. Let’s hope for good.

oh an Imam Roberts put up the ramadan bombathon calendar on thereligionofpeace day 4 108 down so far

Sissyfuss on Thu, 9th May 2019 4:39 pm

To Davy at 10:16 am.
They say we are the meteor this time. Maybe a nice little 200 metres long asteroid hit could reconnect many back to Nature but this meteor of we takes too long between impact and consequences.

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 6:14 pm

Well sis this is why I am preaching Real Green Deep Adaptation. It mostly falls on deaf ears but some might find it interesting. I appreciate your show of interest.

makati1 on Thu, 9th May 2019 6:31 pm

“makato, we know the orwellian shit going on in China. We know about the fake economic numbers. we know about the re education camps. What you have been saying is a one sided intellectually fraudulent agenda IOW an extremis Asiaphile.”

Davy, you KNOW nothing about Asia. You “know” what your masters tell you, nothing more. And their “facts” are distortions and lies to make the dying US look better. It is not. You suck that brainwashing koolaid like water in the desert.

Try to remember that China is pushing the US out of the ‘top-dog’ spot and the US doesn’t like that. You will never see anything positive about China. Or Russia. Both have basically told the US to go pound sand. Many countries are already joining them. The US is going down. The sooner the better.

BTW: Try proper punctuation and grammar, goatherd.

GO TRUMP! TRUMP IN 2020! Take it down! ^_^

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 6:45 pm

“Davy, you KNOW nothing about Asia.”

I read the same shit you do makato it is just I have an education you don’t. You have a bad attitude.

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 6:50 pm

Oops, sorry everyone. I was projecting again.

Call me a dumbass

JuanP on Thu, 9th May 2019 6:56 pm

juanpee posting

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 6:50 pm

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 6:57 pm

JuanP is another without an education and it shows

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 7:21 pm

Well sis I am preaching Real Green, but I don’t practice what I preach. There is nothing Real Green about a 500 acre goat and cow operation. obv.

One more reason to prove how much of a hypocrite I am. And a dumbass.

JuanP on Thu, 9th May 2019 7:31 pm

juanpee posting

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 7:21 pm

makati1 on Thu, 9th May 2019 7:37 pm

But Davy, I LIVE in Asia. I have been to China several times lately. I have been to Japan recently. When is the last time you have been to China or Japan or the Philippines? Answer: ZERO! NEVER! Not even close!

I do not read the same bullshit USMSM propaganda as you do. I read the Philippine newspapers, the English web sites from China and Japan, etc. Do you know you can read the newspapers from most countries on line?

http://www.onlinenewspapers.com/

However, I do know what is happening in the dying US. I have many friends and relatives that keep me informed, plus my annual visits to various parts of the country. Believe what you want. China is rising or the US would not be in panic mode trying to stop it. Think for yourself, if you can. GO TRUMP!

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 7:43 pm

“Degrowth vs. the Green New Deal”
https://tinyurl.com/y5my5cx4 briar patch magazine

“But some are wary of proposals like the Green New Deal – they say that it only “greens” the capitalist imperative of perpetual economic growth, which is the true cause of environmental destruction. These critics – degrowthers – believe that to reduce our environmental impacts, we need to scale down energy and material use throughout the economy. This will likely lead to a downturn in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, so we need to restructure the economy so it doesn’t rely on economic growth as an indicator for well-being. Unlike the Green New Deal, however, degrowth isn’t a policy platform – it’s more of a movement, or what participants call an “umbrella concept,” bringing together a wide diversity of ideas and social and environmental justice struggles. There are other differences between the two, but each brings something unique to the just transition table. What would a conversation between degrowth and the Green New Deal look like?”

“Theory and policy Degrowth is mostly an academic movement, focused on challenging mainstream economics…The Green New Deal, in contrast, is mostly a policy platform.”

“Growth Because most evidence points to economic growth being strongly coupled with environmental destruction, degrowthers believe we should focus on reducing impact and restructuring the economy, even if that might mean less growth…Most Green New Deal platforms are either agnostic about, or supportive of, economic growth. Some Green New Deal advocates argue that it is possible to decouple environmental impact from economic growth.”

“Consumerism Degrowth has long been focused on the problem of consumerism, or, how we have created a high-waste economy where we are forced to buy crap that we don’t need. It is possible to increase well-being while dismantling the imperial mode of living, tied to an unsustainable capitalist system. Green New Deal advocates often avoid talking about the need to reduce consumption, which is not seen as a popular selling point in North America”

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 7:51 pm

“But Davy, I LIVE in Asia.”

Makato, you live in a small town in a small shack with a small life. Quit acting like you are some powerful force of knowledge on Asia. You are on the east cost of the Philippines Island of Luzon in the town of Infanta or Real far away from the heart beat of Asia. Add to that the fact that you are uneducated and angry. You are driven by and agenda of hate and resentment. I know Asia better than you do because you are uneducated and delusional with an emotional agenda of anti-Americanism.

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 7:59 pm

Oops, sorry everyone. I was projecting again.

JuanP on Thu, 9th May 2019 8:00 pm

juanpee posting

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 7:59 pm

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 8:02 pm

juanpee how depressed are you lately? Your stalking activity has gone down significantly. ooh, I am so so depressed. LOL you fuck nut

I AM THE MOB on Thu, 9th May 2019 8:19 pm

These European regions haven’t recovered from the financial crisis, and are now a populist breeding ground

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/09/these-european-regions-havent-recovered-from-the-financial-crisis-now-populist-breeding-ground.html

makati1 on Thu, 9th May 2019 9:19 pm

Davy, your immature, arrogant putdowns do not change fact. Sorry Jackass, you are blowing smoke out your ass and pretending it is rational thought.

And you still get my location wrong. Not even close. I deliberately mislead anyone stalking me, like yourself.

I am pro-world, and, yes, anti-American because I do not support terrorists like the US. You do.

GO TRUMP! TRUMP IN 2020! Take the empire down now!

Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 9:31 pm

Implementation of Humper Pumper Number Nine initiative activated.

makati1 on Thu, 9th May 2019 9:34 pm

BTW: “FAR WAY FROM THE HEARTHBEAT OF ASIA”? Less than 500 miles to CHINA is “FAR AWAY”? How about the 8,000 miles YOU are from the heartbeat of Asia? Oh, that doesn’t count because you are an arrogant, hypocritical asshole?

Arrogant assholes like you, Davy, deserve ALL the pain that is coming and more. Meanwhile here in the land of eternal summer, I can watch the freak show called Amerika devolve into the 3rd world. Pass the popcorn, the action is heating up.

GO TRUMP! TRUMP IN 2020! TAKE DAVY DOWN TOO!

I AM THE MOB on Thu, 9th May 2019 9:35 pm

Thanks to Trump, War Is in the Air

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/05/trump-empowers-hawks/588841/

Cloggie on Thu, 9th May 2019 10:12 pm

“Thanks to Trump, War Is in the Air”

Excellent, bring it on. The war that will end America, as we know it. Entire Eurasia + UK are against it.

Trump says he has “strong boats loaded with everything”. Nice target for Russian Yakhont missiles! Close off Hormuz, Iran, and bring down the world economy and generate global hatred against the Great Satan and initiate all-Eurasian measures to erase and criminalise the dollar from Eurasia for good. Confiscate every American asset, every American company (Amazon!). Destroy all oil instrastructure in KSA with missiles, as we need to get rid of oil anyway, infrastructure that will never be rebuilt.

This is the golden opportunity to finally discredit and kill empire for ever, which is probably the intention of Trump anyway. It doesn’t matter what his intentions are. It’s America against the rest of the world, THAT is what matters.

And remember folks, America can’t take casualties! 100k is probably sufficient for large groups of Heartlanders to kill the local sheriff and start an uprising.

The Last Regime Change!

Cloggie on Thu, 9th May 2019 10:24 pm

The lies of the modern world taken down, one at a time:

https://russia-insider.com/en/history/was-hitlers-invasion-russia-defensive-foil-attack-stalin/ri23681

“Was Hitler’s Invasion of Russia Defensive, to Foil an Attack by Stalin?”

Spoiler: it was.

https://russia-insider.com/en/holocaust-myth-conceals-our-shame/ri26793

“’The Holocaust’ Is a Myth That Conceals Our Shame”

If America will be at war with everybody, the threshold will be removed to openly debate WW1-WW2 and everything attached to it.

WW2 was the war, intentionally masterminded by the US, to set up empire.
WW3 will be the war to remove empire from history and from our brains.

Cloggie on Thu, 9th May 2019 10:48 pm

Holiday from Brexit, yet again:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7012833/MPs-11-days-Westminster-took-Easter-holiday-time-again.html

Scroll down for the embarrassing picture of a clueless political class, sitting and giggling in a children’s train.

“MPs get ANOTHER 11 days off: First we failed to leave EU on March 29, then Westminster took the whole of Easter off… now it’s holiday time again”

As it looks now, a hard Brexit could very well be initiated BY THE EU, fed up with a Farage, who, after scoring a monster victory in the upcoming EU elections, will use his seats to sabotage the EU from within. Macron was right, the EU should not have extended article 50. Desaster in the Gulf will ensure that nobody cares about niecities anymore.

https://youtu.be/oNLh_VEJJJ8

Time to terminate two Anglo centuries and start the Eurasian century.

Cloggie on Fri, 10th May 2019 1:19 am

The “rumors” are persistent:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7013131/Corbyn-ally-denies-lying-saying-Zionism-enemy-peace.html

“Corbyn ally denies lying about saying Zionism is the ‘enemy of peace’ after being caught out on camera”

The UK has found its Hitler-lite or Edward-2.0 and his name is Jeremy.lol

http://www.historyofinformation.com/detail.php?entryid=2258

Cloggie on Fri, 10th May 2019 1:43 am

New book glorifies half-American Winston Churchill, who single-handedly kicked “his country” down the geopolitical ladder from #1 to #6 position and yet this traitor-within was chosen to be British “man of the century”:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/books/article-7012113/Churchills-secretaries-shouted-worked-20-hour-days-dictation-ladders.html

Author: (((Cita Stelzer)))

Winston Churchill, the first neocon and best politician, kosher money can buy.

The Natzis tried to prove his mother was jewish. The mystery lingers on.

http://www.fpp.co.uk/History/antisemitism/ChurchillonJews_6.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/27/books/review/winston-churchill-neocon.html

WC, the single most enabler of the US and Soviet empires and great hater of the core of the strength of the white race: Germany, the main obstacle that stood in the way of the NWO.

You must understand that this war is not against Hitler or National Socialism, but against the strength of the German people, which is to be smashed once and for all, regardless of whether it is in the hands of Hitler or a Jesuit priest.. –Winston Churchill

The Germans, the ones who best understood the JQ (thanks to their teacher) and stood up against it. And unfortunately lost.

But now the tide is turning.
Poor Anglos.
Poor Jews.

Theedrich on Fri, 10th May 2019 3:22 am

Well said, Cloggie. America loves White genosuicide.

The United States achieved its current status as the world’s most powerful nation through fraud, deceit, ensnarement, mass murder of Europeans (after massacring the White citizens of the Confederacy) and many other cutthroat practices and operations. That is the true background behind “American values.” Today, however, Yankeeland’s status as № 1 is being challenged by China, another power which has learnt those techniques from the U.S. and is now using them to supplant us.

Unbeknownst to the TV-hypnotized U.S. masses, a deadly war is currently being waged between the United States and China. To begin with, there is the issue of electronic spying. In a Munk debate in Toronto, Thursday, 2019 May 9, Kishore Mahbubani (Practice of Public Policy Sr. Advisor and Professor at the National University of Singapore), the foremost electronic spying agencies in the world are:

– 1. The U.S., by far
– 2. Russia
– 3. Israel
– 4. UK
– 5. China

According to Professor Mahbubani, his source on this is the absolutely best professor in the field of surveillance capability, spying and cyber warfare, an Israeli man, Hugellin(?) (see https://www.c-span.org/video/?460477-1/munk-debate-chinas-role-world).

At the same time, the Chinese Communist Party has been secretly allowing the deadly drug of fentanyl to be exported to North America, resulting in even higher per capita death rates in Canada than in the United States. That Party’s clear and obvious objective is the physical destruction of large numbers of the North American population through seduction to narcotics. It’s the Opium Wars in reverse. Our country’s Congress, holding repeated hearings on the opiates problem, continues to virtue-signal by passing various and sundry ineffectual measures which do nothing serious about it. The narcotics death rate, not to speak of the destruction of countless families and lives of others as a result of drugs, continues to rise stratospherically. And many of our large cities are turning into trash dumps and open toilets of the resulting homeless and insane. To make matters worse, many tax-hungry, willfully blind states either already have passed, or are considering passing, laws to legalize the production and sale of the gateway drug, cannabis. (For the facts on marijuana, read Alex Berenson’s “Tell Your Children: The Truth About Marijuana, Mental Illness, and Violence”, available at https://www.amazon.com/Tell-Your-Children-Marijuana-Violence/dp/1982103663/ref=sr_1_1?crid=23EM6X5CDZ70L&keywords=tell+your+children+the+truth+about+marijuana&qid=1557474824&s=gateway&sprefix=tell+your+ch%2Caps%2C196&sr=8-1.)

Added to this is the fact that nothing will be done about the ThirdWorld invasion via international criminal organizations and “Visa-overstayers,” because the lawmakers themselves benefit from it. Like the “conservative” Arnold Schwarzenegger, many employ illegal aliens as housekeepers and sex toys (while the often indifferent wives of such legislators busy themselves with shopping at high-end stores). The official excuse most commonly given for inaction is concern for “the children” of the outhouselings. Crocodile tears from the predators.

The only possible reaction from any honest and intelligent White citizen is profound disgust with the entire hypocritical bribe-ocracy.

makati1 on Fri, 10th May 2019 3:36 am

“…globalists are in fact a highly organized cult of narcissistic sociopaths, … they lack most traits that we would associate with normal human behavior such as empathy and self examination. … They are also very aware when they are committing an evil act; they simply don’t care and feel no regret or remorse. …

There is also NO KNOWN METHOD of rehabilitation for these people. Why? Because narcissism and sociopathy are generally inherent at birth, and they make up the bulk of a psychopath’s personality. Take these two traits away, and the psychopath no longer has a personality. …

Psychopaths often have very short attention spans, except when they are engaged in a predatory agenda. … They do not care about normal human associations and interactions if they are not getting fuel for their narcissism from the exchange….

Most narc/sociopaths will cycle through non-narc associates quickly, and have no real “friends”. … Narc/sociopaths are invariably cowards, and will rarely fight on a level playing field. They will either run, stab you in the back if they can, or use other people to do their dirty work.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-09/ultimate-goal-globalists-make-you-monster-just-them

Apparently Davy has a very close resemblance to globalists, or, at least, narcissistic sociopathy.

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 4:38 am

BTW: “FAR WAY FROM THE HEARTHBEAT OF ASIA”?

Like I said “uneducated”! You think because you are 500 miles and I am 8000 miles you have the heartbeat of Asia. It comes from intellectual research and being educated and experience. I may not have the direct experience of Asia but you don’t either. You might know a small segment of the Philippines culture but your understanding of Asian culture elsewhere is so low as to be negligible. You are just a stupid old man with a pissed off attitude who wants everyone to think he knows his shit on Asia. You then use this fraudulent expertise to bash the west. This is actually a dysfunctional personality issue. Your stay in America must have been very traumatic to have so much hate and resentment. You are just reacting to failure. I have proven you wrong daily with your extremist agenda, makato in debate with issues not stalking like you and your stupid friends do. That is the proof of your education and mine. Why do you think your best friends are so triggered and stalk me every chance they get? IMA, you are now stalking me daily along with them in your gang banger ad-hominem parties. These low IQ friends of yours are trying to protect the old man they love because they are loser anti-Americans and love what you preach. Annoy and junpee are a direct reflection on you as a low IQ loser.

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 4:40 am

makato, this is an example of the friends you keep. JuanP did this comment and he loves you. LMFAO

“Davy on Thu, 9th May 2019 9:31 pm Implementation of Humper Pumper Number Nine initiative activated.”

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 4:51 am

“…globalists are in fact a highly organized cult of narcissistic sociopaths, …”
Come on so are many other types. Populous have similar traits. We find it in religions. It is BS to point this out with globalist. If you are intelligent you will say “Some” have it.

“they lack most traits that we would associate with normal human behavior such as empathy and self examination. …”
Well that describes you makato and your buddies here as well as cloggo.

“They are also very aware when they are committing an evil act; they simply don’t care and feel no regret or remorse. …”
More of how you and cloggo feel with your constant glorification of war. WAR PIGS

“There is also NO KNOWN METHOD of rehabilitation for these people. Why? Because narcissism and sociopathy are generally inherent at birth, and they make up the bulk of a psychopath’s personality. Take these two traits away, and the psychopath no longer has a personality. …”
My God, makato, do you realize you are describing yourself to a T!

“Psychopaths often have very short attention spans, except when they are engaged in a predatory agenda. … They do not care about normal human associations and interactions if they are not getting fuel for their narcissism from the exchange….”
Psychopaths come in all shapes and sizes and with different degrees, spare me the drama.

“Most narc/sociopaths will cycle through non-narc associates quickly, and have no real “friends”. …
This is why you left the US and hate it so much.

“Narc/sociopaths are invariably cowards, and will rarely fight on a level playing field. They will either run, stab you in the back if they can, or use other people to do their dirty work.”
LOL, that describes you on this board when you refuse to engage in direct debate and instead engage in gang bang ad-hominem parties with your friends once I go to bed.

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 4:58 am

“Excellent, bring it on. The war that will end America, as we know it. Entire Eurasia + UK are against it.”
Nasty Natzi war pig

“Trump says he has “strong boats loaded with everything”. Nice target for Russian Yakhont missiles!”
The entire Russian navy is targeted stupid. BTW, China is planning 6 carriers so they know something you don’t

“Close off Hormuz, Iran, and bring down the world economy and generate global hatred against the Great Satan and initiate all-Eurasian measures to erase and criminalise the dollar from Eurasia for good. Confiscate every American asset, every American company (Amazon!). Destroy all oil instrastructure in KSA with missiles, as we need to get rid of oil anyway, infrastructure that will never be rebuilt.”
My god you are so warped and dramatic, cloggo. Get a friggen grip. Iran will close the Straits not the US. They say they will and the US has always maintained it will keep it open.

“This is the golden opportunity to finally discredit and kill empire for ever, which is probably the intention of Trump anyway. It doesn’t matter what his intentions are. It’s America against the rest of the world, THAT is what matters.”
Something you masturbate to daily

“And remember folks, America can’t take casualties! 100k is probably sufficient for large groups of Heartlanders to kill the local sheriff and start an uprising.”
Like I have said Euotards have not taken significant casualties since WW2. Eurotards are now fat and lazy and unable to do war. The proof is in the pudding. Cloggo, not your fantasy of a great Napoleonic army.

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 5:07 am

“Was Hitler’s Invasion of Russia Defensive, to Foil an Attack by Stalin?” “Spoiler: it was.”
Ah, sure Hitler was being proactively defensive but you skip the part about “lebensraum” and world domination of the master race. That is clearly offensive, dumbass.

“’The Holocaust’ Is a Myth That Conceals Our Shame”
You can deny the gas chambers but you cannot deny the killing of all kinds of peoples by the Natzies, dumbass. The killing was methodical and document in so many cases you have no way of covering it up.

“If America will be at war with everybody, the threshold will be removed to openly debate WW1-WW2 and everything attached to it.”
BS, dram queen. Most of the world is over the WW’s that you live and breathe daily you sick fuck. You got your ass kicked twice and you can’t come to grips with that Natzi.

“WW2 was the war, intentionally masterminded by the US, to set up empire.”
Bullshit you rabid manic. LMFAO at your obsessions.

“WW3 will be the war to remove empire from history and from our brains.”
White racist Nazti

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 5:09 am

“You must understand that this war is not against Hitler or National Socialism, but against the strength of the German people, which is to be smashed once and for all, regardless of whether it is in the hands of Hitler or a Jesuit priest.. –Winston Churchill”

AH, I am not arguing that quote but you need to document with a reference in a context, stupid.

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 5:13 am

Explain this lebensraum JPG Nazti:

https://tinyurl.com/y27vvnul

Davy on Fri, 10th May 2019 5:56 am

Those who think peak oil is dead need to read these article. Shale and the economy are still very much built into the dynamics of peak oil. Renewables have not made a dent in transport fuels and likely will never transition transport away from oil in a dominant way. EV’s and hydrogen will help and are vital but not a game changer. Peak Oil is a game changer and it is lurking in the fog ahead.

“Global Economic Growth In Serious Trouble When U.S. Shale Oil Peaks & Declines”
https://tinyurl.com/yyhbx8nl srsroccoreport
https://tinyurl.com/yynufkf9 “the figures in the chart above came from the 2018 BP Statistical Review.”

“The global economy would be in serious trouble if it weren’t for the rapid growth of U.S. shale oil production. Since the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. shale oil production has increased by more than 6 million barrels per day. Without these additional barrels of oil, the massive money printing and asset purchases by the central banks would not have been as successful in propping up the economy and markets. We must remember this simple fact; energy drives the markets, not finance. Finance steers the market. So, for the economy to expand, there must be oil production growth. However, it would be unwise for the market-economy to rely upon the U.S. shale industry as the leading driver of global oil production growth for the foreseeable future. Why? Well, there are several reasons, but let’s first look at how much the increase in U.S. shale oil production has accounted for the rise in global oil supply since 2008. Of the 9.6 million barrels per day (mbd) of global oil production growth 2008-2017, the United States supplied two-thirds or 6.3 mbd of the total.”

“So, from 1997-2007, the overwhelming majority of global oil production growth came from all other countries, not including the United States and Canada, but, quite the opposite took place from 2008-2017 when the U.S. and Canada were the predominant leaders in global oil production. Thus, PEAK OIL seems to be a real factor when we exclude the high-cost, low EROI (Energy Returned On Investment) of Canadian oil sands and U.S. shale oil.”

“Steve “The Big Short” Eisman: Brace For “Massive” Bond Losses In The Next Recession”
https://tinyurl.com/y47bntfo zero hedge

“Eisman became the latest Wall Street luminary to warn about the dangers of the US corporate debt market, something that we have also discussed at length, and that even the Fed has cited as a vulnerable area. Eisman said “big losses” in things like “BBB corporate” debt should be expected during the next downturn. “You will see big losses in things like triple-B corporate debt, high-yield etcetera, but you need a recession first,” he said. “Corporate debt isn’t going to cause the next recession, but it’s where the pain will be in the next recession.”

The Peculiar Blindness of Experts

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