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Page added on May 7, 2019

The Peculiar Blindness of Experts

The bet was on, and it was over the fate of humanity. On one side was the Stanford biologist Paul R. Ehrlich. In his 1968 best seller, The Population Bomb, Ehrlich insisted that it was too late to prevent a doomsday apocalypse resulting from overpopulation. Resource shortages would cause hundreds of millions of starvation deaths within a decade. It was cold, hard math: The human population was growing exponentially; the food supply was not. Ehrlich was an accomplished butterfly specialist. He knew that nature did not regulate animal populations delicately. Populations exploded, blowing past the available resources, and then crashed.

In his book, Ehrlich played out hypothetical scenarios that represented “the kinds of disasters that will occur.” In the worst-case scenario, famine rages across the planet. Russia, China, and the United States are dragged into nuclear war, and the resulting environmental degradation soon extinguishes the human race. In the “cheerful” scenario, population controls begin. Famine spreads, and countries teeter, but the major death wave ends in the mid-1980s. Only half a billion or so people die of starvation. “I challenge you to create one more optimistic,” Ehrlich wrote, adding that he would not count scenarios involving benevolent aliens bearing care packages.

The economist Julian Simon took up Ehrlich’s challenge. Technology—water-control techniques, hybridized seeds, management strategies—had revolutionized agriculture, and global crop yields were increasing. To Simon, more people meant more good ideas about how to achieve a sustainable future. So he proposed a wager. Ehrlich could choose five metals that he expected to become more expensive as resources were depleted and chaos ensued over the next decade. Both men agreed that commodity prices were a fine proxy for the effects of population growth, and they set the stakes at $1,000 worth of Ehrlich’s five metals. If, 10 years hence, prices had gone down, Ehrlich would have to pay the difference in value to Simon. If prices went up, Simon would be on the hook for the difference. The bet was made official in 1980.

In October 1990, Simon found a check for $576.07 in his mailbox. Ehrlich got smoked. The price of every one of the metals had declined. In the 1960s, 50 out of every 100,000 global citizens died annually from famine; by the 1990s, that number was 2.6.

Ehrlich’s starvation predictions were almost comically bad. And yet, the very same year he conceded the bet, Ehrlich doubled down in another book, with another prediction that would prove untrue: Sure, his timeline had been a little off, he wrote, but “now the population bomb has detonated.” Despite one erroneous prediction after another, Ehrlich amassed an enormous following and received prestigious awards. Simon, meanwhile, became a standard-bearer for scholars who felt that Ehrlich had ignored economic principles. The kind of excessive regulations Ehrlich advocated, the Simon camp argued, would quell the very innovation that had delivered humanity from catastrophe. Both men became luminaries in their respective domains. Both were mistaken.

When economists later examined metal prices for every 10-year window from 1900 to 2008, during which time the world population quadrupled, they saw that Ehrlich would have won the bet 62 percent of the time. The catch: Commodity prices are a poor gauge of population effects, particularly over a single decade. The variable that both men were certain would vindicate their worldviews actually had little to do with those views. Prices waxed and waned with macroeconomic cycles.

Yet both men dug in. Each declared his faith in science and the undisputed primacy of facts. And each continued to miss the value of the other’s ideas. Ehrlich was wrong about the apocalypse, but right on aspects of environmental degradation. Simon was right about the influence of human ingenuity on food and energy supplies, but wrong in claiming that improvements in air and water quality validated his theories. Ironically, those improvements were bolstered through regulations pressed by Ehrlich and others.

Ideally, intellectual sparring partners “hone each other’s arguments so that they are sharper and better,” the Yale historian Paul Sabin wrote in The Bet. “The opposite happened with Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon.” As each man amassed more information for his own view, each became more dogmatic, and the inadequacies in his model of the world grew ever more stark.

The pattern is by now familiar. In the 30 years since Ehrlich sent Simon a check, the track record of expert forecasters—in science, in economics, in politics—is as dismal as ever. In business, esteemed (and lavishly compensated) forecasters routinely are wildly wrong in their predictions of everything from the next stock-market correction to the next housing boom. Reliable insight into the future is possible, however. It just requires a style of thinking that’s uncommon among experts who are certain that their deep knowledge has granted them a special grasp of what is to come.

The idea for the most important study ever conducted of expert predictions was sparked in 1984, at a meeting of a National Research Council committee on American-Soviet relations. The psychologist and political scientist Philip E. Tetlock was 30 years old, by far the most junior committee member. He listened intently as other members discussed Soviet intentions and American policies. Renowned experts delivered authoritative predictions, and Tetlock was struck by how many perfectly contradicted one another and were impervious to counterarguments.

Tetlock decided to put expert political and economic predictions to the test. With the Cold War in full swing, he collected forecasts from 284 highly educated experts who averaged more than 12 years of experience in their specialties. To ensure that the predictions were concrete, experts had to give specific probabilities of future events. Tetlock had to collect enough predictions that he could separate lucky and unlucky streaks from true skill. The project lasted 20 years, and comprised 82,361 probability estimates about the future.

The result: The experts were, by and large, horrific forecasters. Their areas of specialty, years of experience, and (for some) access to classified information made no difference. They were bad at short-term forecasting and bad at long-term forecasting. They were bad at forecasting in every domain. When experts declared that future events were impossible or nearly impossible, 15 percent of them occurred nonetheless. When they declared events to be a sure thing, more than one-quarter of them failed to transpire. As the Danish proverb warns, “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Read: What was the worst prediction of all time?

Even faced with their results, many experts never admitted systematic flaws in their judgment. When they missed wildly, it was a near miss; if just one little thing had gone differently, they would have nailed it. “There is often a curiously inverse relationship,” Tetlock concluded, “between how well forecasters thought they were doing and how well they did.”

Early predictions in Tetlock’s research pertained to the future of the Soviet Union. Some experts (usually liberals) saw Mikhail Gorbachev as an earnest reformer who would be able to change the Soviet Union and keep it intact for a while, and other experts (usually conservatives) felt that the Soviet Union was immune to reform and losing legitimacy. Both sides were partly right and partly wrong. Gorbachev did bring real reform, opening the Soviet Union to the world and empowering citizens. But those reforms unleashed pent-up forces in the republics outside Russia, where the system had lost legitimacy. The forces blew the Soviet Union apart. Both camps of experts were blindsided by the swift demise of the U.S.S.R.

One subgroup of scholars, however, did manage to see more of what was coming. Unlike Ehrlich and Simon, they were not vested in a single discipline. They took from each argument and integrated apparently contradictory worldviews. They agreed that Gorbachev was a real reformer and that the Soviet Union had lost legitimacy outside Russia. A few of those integrators saw that the end of the Soviet Union was close at hand and that real reforms would be the catalyst.

The integrators outperformed their colleagues in pretty much every way, but especially trounced them on long-term predictions. Eventually, Tetlock bestowed nicknames (borrowed from the philosopher Isaiah Berlin) on the experts he’d observed: The highly specialized hedgehogs knew “one big thing,” while the integrator foxes knew “many little things.”

Hedgehogs are deeply and tightly focused. Some have spent their career studying one problem. Like Ehrlich and Simon, they fashion tidy theories of how the world works based on observations through the single lens of their specialty. Foxes, meanwhile, “draw from an eclectic array of traditions, and accept ambiguity and contradiction,” Tetlock wrote. Where hedgehogs represent narrowness, foxes embody breadth.

Incredibly, the hedgehogs performed especially poorly on long-term predictions within their specialty. They got worse as they accumulated experience and credentials in their field. The more information they had to work with, the more easily they could fit any story into their worldview.

Unfortunately, the world’s most prominent specialists are rarely held accountable for their predictions, so we continue to rely on them even when their track records make clear that we should not. One study compiled a decade of annual dollar-to-euro exchange-rate predictions made by 22 international banks: Barclays, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and others. Each year, every bank predicted the end-of-year exchange rate. The banks missed every single change of direction in the exchange rate. In six of the 10 years, the true exchange rate fell outside the entire range of all 22 bank forecasts.

In 2005, Tetlock published his results, and they caught the attention of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, or IARPA, a government organization that supports research on the U.S. intelligence community’s most difficult challenges. In 2011, IARPA launched a four-year prediction tournament in which five researcher-led teams competed. Each team could recruit, train, and experiment however it saw fit. Predictions were due at 9 a.m. every day. The questions were hard: Will a European Union member withdraw by a target date? Will the Nikkei close above 9,500?

Tetlock, along with his wife and collaborator, the psychologist Barbara Mellers, ran a team named the Good Judgment Project. Rather than recruit decorated experts, they issued an open call for volunteers. After a simple screening, they invited 3,200 people to start forecasting. Among those, they identified a small group of the foxiest forecasters—bright people with extremely wide-ranging interests and unusually expansive reading habits, but no particular relevant background—and weighted team forecasts toward their predictions. They destroyed the competition.

Tetlock and Mellers found that not only were the best forecasters foxy as individuals, but they tended to have qualities that made them particularly effective collaborators. They were “curious about, well, really everything,” as one of the top forecasters told me. They crossed disciplines, and viewed their teammates as sources for learning, rather than peers to be convinced. When those foxes were later grouped into much smaller teams—12 members each—they became even more accurate. They outperformed—by a lot—a group of experienced intelligence analysts with access to classified data.

One forecast discussion involved a team trying to predict the highest single-day close for the exchange rate between the Ukrainian hryvnia and the U.S. dollar during an extremely volatile stretch in 2014. Would the rate be less than 10 hryvnia to a dollar, between 10 and 13, or more than 13? The discussion started with a team member offering percentages for each possibility, and sharing an Economist article. Another team member chimed in with historical data he’d found online, a Bloomberg link, and a bet that the rate would land between 10 and 13. A third teammate was convinced by the second’s argument. A fourth shared information about the dire state of Ukrainian finances, which he feared would devalue the hryvnia. A fifth noted that the United Nations Security Council was considering sending peacekeepers to the region, which he believed would buoy the currency.

Two days later, a team member with experience in finance saw that the hryvnia was strengthening amid events he’d thought would surely weaken it. He informed his teammates that this was exactly the opposite of what he’d expected, and that they should take it as a sign of something wrong in his understanding. (Tetlock told me that, when making an argument, foxes often use the word however, while hedgehogs favor moreover.) The team members finally homed in on “between 10 and 13” as the heavy favorite, and they were correct.

In Tetlock’s 20-year study, both the broad foxes and the narrow hedgehogs were quick to let a successful prediction reinforce their beliefs. But when an outcome took them by surprise, foxes were much more likely to adjust their ideas. Hedgehogs barely budged. Some made authoritative predictions that turned out to be wildly wrong—then updated their theories in the wrong direction. They became even more convinced of the original beliefs that had led them astray. The best forecasters, by contrast, view their own ideas as hypotheses in need of testing. If they make a bet and lose, they embrace the logic of a loss just as they would the reinforcement of a win. This is called, in a word, learning.

Atlantic

180 Comments on "The Peculiar Blindness of Experts"

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 5:13 am

“Yesterday, to the astonishment of empire dave, the BBC said in its flagship news show Newsnight, that the US was the old superpower and China its successor super power. Rest assured that the BBC doesn’t like to admit that. So how to interpret this?”
Cloggo, I asked for a link is all because you are intellectually fraudulent. I have to moderate your shit. I believe we are in a multipolar world and China, Europe, or Russia will never replace what the US once had. The BBC is an illegitimate extremist liberal media rag. They have been taken over like most mainstream media these days parroting agendas. You and makato like MSM because you cherry pick things to weave into your disgusting agenda stories.

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 5:15 am

If it bothers you, Joe Mama, then leave already. Get rid of yourself.

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 5:17 am

The BBC is an illegitimate extremist liberal media rag. They have been taken over like most mainstream media these days parroting agendas.

Fox News is the truth. It’s fair and balanced like me.

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 5:27 am

“Ah, sure Hitler was being proactively defensive but you skip the part about “lebensraum” and world domination of the master race. That is clearly offensive, dumbass.” “Oh dear, after seven years of repeated request from my side to empire dave to give me his views about the history of WW2, he finally gives in. What could possibly go wrong? LOL”
LOL, cloggo tries to explain himself but he can’t because his Fuhrer was a megalomaniac bent on world domination plain and simple not a victim as the Natzi slug wants us to believe.

“You can deny the gas chambers but you cannot deny the killing of all kinds of peoples by the Natzies, dumbass. The killing was methodical and document in so many cases you have no way of covering it up.” “There was a war going on, you lying scumbag”
OH, now cloggo lets it out. Yea, there was a war going on and your so called Natzi victims were killing civilians and Jews. I could give a shit about gas chambers dumbass. Natzi’s were not victims and were actually cold blooded methodical killers. The Allies never could match the Natzi killing extremes but they also indulged in horrible war crimes. I am honest you are not.

“Most of the world is over the WW’s that you live and breathe daily you sick fuck. You got your ass kicked twice and you can’t come to grips with that Natzi.”“You are right, I can’t get to grips with that, but fortunately, you Euro trash are being wiped out by your own kosher masters”
Geeze, we are back to the Jew thang again. Cloggo is a broken jew baiting record. I get so tired of reading his 20/7 Brexit and Jew baiting shit. Cloggo, you are a blemish to this unmoderated forum with your 20/7 posting of shit.

“Well, even dummies like you can’t deny that that US empire was de facto the case. And very reliable insiders can confirm that that was the intention:”
Stupid, all sides were bent on war then it is just your side got there ass kicked because you had a leader who was stuck on himself and didn’t listen to his generals. If the Germans would have allowed the generals there way German would now be the superpower. You fucked up cloggo believing your Fuhrer’s lies.

“demise, I certainly will.LOL”
This is why I will take you down every time you preach your dirty lying shit. You will be dealt with of course with debate not like scumbags like junapee and annoy do with stalking, identity theft, and socks.

JuanP on Sat, 11th May 2019 5:30 am

Mindless juanpee postings:

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 5:15 am

Joe Mama on Sat, 11th May 2019 5:13 am

Cloggie on Sat, 11th May 2019 5:35 am

Please po.com, get rid of this comments section. Your site will be much better off. This method of posting is outdated and clearly only attractive for insane people

The quint-essential Anglo-Zionist Brit, lefty low-caps joe doesn’t like the comments one bit and demands censorship.

Peak oil is alive and well

Peak conventional oil is indeed alive and well, but no longer the earth shattering event it was portrayed to be by the ASPO2000 crowd and the likes of Heinberg en Kunstler, who btw have moved on. Heinberg is now in renewable energy (as he should be) and Kunstler has retreated into documenting the demise of US politics for us.

The amount of carbons that can be harvested with new technology is staggering, but folks like empire dave, who are in their personal lives mile-deep invested into the collapse story and have dug themselves so deep in a hole that there is no way out for them, keep hanging on.

They will get collapse alright, but not induced by peak carbon, but because of geopolitics and civil war.

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 5:36 am

“Please po.com, get rid of this comments section. Your site will be much better off. This method of posting is outdated and clearly only attractive for insane people”

Joe, go over to the moderated section of the forum and quit your whining. It is obvious unmoderated forums are screwed up because extremist take them over. They are a thing of the past but are a great place to fight extremist and that is why I am here. It would help with a minimum of automated moderation against identity theft and socks of juanpee and the amount of posting from Natzi slugs like the cloggo. I would adapt accordingly. I am here much less when it is normal postings. The problem is people like makato and cloggo try to preach their off topic agenda here. We also have mentally ill people like juanpee and annoy that just need an IP banned.

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 5:42 am

“Peak oil is alive and well” Peak conventional oil is indeed alive and well, but no longer the earth shattering event it was portrayed to be by the ASPO2000 crowd and the likes of Heinberg en Kunstler, who btw have moved on. Heinberg is now in renewable energy (as he should be) and Kunstler has retreated into documenting the demise of US politics for us.”
Well, at least we got cloggo to agree to that after my many debates with his BS peak oil is dead.

“The amount of carbons that can be harvested with new technology is staggering, but folks like empire dave, who are in their personal lives mile-deep invested into the collapse story and have dug themselves so deep in a hole that there is no way out for them, keep hanging on.”
This is where we disagree because the cloggo has zero finance and economic experience. He cherry picks economic numbers according to how big or small they are in relation to Eurotard land. He thinks hydrocarbons can be harvested endlessly because the economy will go on endlessly into a white racist utopia awaiting his brave white racist Natzi scum who will take over the world one day.

Cloggie on Sat, 11th May 2019 6:03 am

LOL, cloggo tries to explain himself but he can’t because his Fuhrer was a megalomaniac bent on world domination plain and simple not a victim as the Natzi slug wants us to believe.

Empire dave, the world’s last bolshevik from Eastern Europe, simply ignores the proof I handed to him that in the eyes over the overseer of the Nuremberg tribunal, the Germans had no intent for world conquest (they just wanted their stupid 97% German city of Danzig back).

https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/26/justice-jackson-has-to-admit/

He will keep lying and denying until he has a gun in his mouth from a furious Ozark deplorable neighbor, who accidentally discovered that empire dave is a ZOG-bot and as such an enemy of white people, by the time the Ozarks have turned into a sort of Donbass insurgency area. Empire dave has an openended plane ticket to Italy under in his drawer for a good reason. Once in Italy he will slime how much he loves Italy and Europe and how glads he is to be among white people again. Empire dave, the typical slimy opportunist without principles or ethnic pride.

Yea, there was a war going on and your so called Natzi victims were killing civilians and Jews.

Did they? Examples please, outside a war situation.

Tic-toc-tic-toc

The Allies never could match the Natzi killing extremes

The opposite is the case. In western Europe, Germans, French and British treated each other with respect and sticked to the Geneva conventions. The Germans didn’t slaughter the retreating British of Dunkirk btw and waited three months before they no longer could avoid retaliatory bombing of civilian targets, as ordered by Churchill, the first day he became PM, in a relentless attempt to escalate the war.

The East was indeed one giant killing field, because the Soviets didn’t adhere to any Geneva convention whatsoever, but the behavior of the Germans in western Europe proves that the Germans were not the barbarians, a Czech like you would like to portray them.

Stupid, all sides were bent on war

That’s quite an admission, just like your implicit admission that the holocaust could be a hoax. Usually there is only one party bent on war, namely the party with the best cards to win such a war. Again, global GDP distribution:

Alllies (56%):

USA-29%
USSR-13%
British empire-11%
French-5%

Axis (21%)

Germany-11%
Italy-5%
Japan-5%

You seriously think that the Axis would want to to “conquer the world” with these figures?

There was only one party who really wanted war, because they knew they would win it and that was the US.

9 months before the US finally managed to force the Japanese to strike at Pearl Harbor, to escape from an 100% oil-boycott strangulation imposed on them by the US, the latter had the desired excused to join the war, the had planned for all along since 1933, the US began to prepare the US public for the upcoming “American Century” (that thankfully is now coming to an end) with a landmark article in Time-Life:

https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/25/time-life-the-american-century/

The article has almost 100 references to the word “war”, the US needed to prepare itself for, in order to achieve that “American Century”. And so it happened.

But now it is 80 years later. America is ruined demographically (thank God) and clearly on the way out. Russia consolidates, China is on the way to replace the US as the next #1, pro-Russian populism in Europe is rising and then there is the alt-right in America. Iraq, failed, Syria failed, Venezuela regime change failed and Panama is on the verge of moving over to the Chinese.

Things don’t look good for you at all, empire dave.LOL

These people are after you, empire dave, and they are in the Ozarks too:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KYifYzjKlc

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 6:30 am

“China Car Sales Tank 16.6% In April, Falling For A Record 11 Months In A Row”
https://tinyurl.com/y3ykplq9 zero hedge

“No country has better exemplified the global automobile recession than China. Sales for the world’s largest auto market continue to deteriorate, with the latest report confirming that passenger vehicle sales in China tanked yet again – this time dropping 16.6% year-over-year to 1.54 million units, following a 12% decline in March and an 18.5% slide in February. In addition, April SUV sales fell 14.7% to 642,220 units.”

“The global auto recession has wreaked havoc, especially because products for cars are usually the most profitable for steelmakers. This is especially true for Germany’s premium brands that demand high-quality metal. The auto industry accounts for about 20% of total steel demand. Car sales in Europe have declined for seven straight months through March.”

Cloggie on Sat, 11th May 2019 6:34 am

“China Car Sales Tank 16.6% In April, Falling For A Record 11 Months In A Row”

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/24/china-electric-vehicle-sales-jump-175-up-to-4-8-of-auto-market-in-january/

“China Electric Vehicle Sales Jump 175%, Up To 4.8% Of Auto Market In January!”

There are good reasons for a decline in sales of conventional cars, as they could become outlawed soon. And then there is the autonomous-driving car prospect.

There may be a Chinese car recession, there is no Chinese recession. Sorry to disappoint empire dave, who is deep in his heart, scared to death for China.

As he should be.

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 6:48 am

“Can The US And China Ever Come To A Trade Agreement? It’s Time For Some Behavioral Theory”
https://tinyurl.com/y5kvkznk Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research

“Can the US and China come to a trade agreement? For Story Time Thursday we address that question with 2 behavioral finance studies. The first shows professional negotiators expect “fairness” during talks even more than laypeople. The second reveals significant cultural (US-China) differences on what constitutes a “fair” deal. Bottom line: markets like the predictability implicit in a model where companies/governments are profit/utility-maximizing agents. Behavioral finance reminds us that “fairness” can matter more.”

“The lesson of the Ultimatum Game: spite trumps classical marginal utility theory. That’s how “normal” people play the game, but do skilled negotiators follow the same playbook? In theory, they shouldn’t since they know even a sub-25% offer is better than walking away empty-handed. But then again, since they are facing off against another professional perhaps they would expect a fairer offer from a one-shot game and reject even 30%. So which is it? In 2014 researchers from several University of California schools published the results of a study that gave the answer. Over the course of 2 years they had 102 senior level US government officials and business leaders play an online version of the UG. Here were their results: Elite negotiators make higher offers (average $43) than laypeople ($39). But they also require higher offers to accept a deal: $31 versus $25 for the typical non-elite player. The more experienced the elite bargainer, the more they offered and the higher their threshold was to make a deal.”

“The second Ultimatum Game study today goes to the question of cultural differences between the US and China. The work here comes from Chinese/German researchers and looked at whether older Chinese citizens who had lived under Mao played the UG differently from younger demographic cohorts. The short answer is yes, but the data in the study also highlights the cultural difference between Chinese UG players and those in the West: All Chinese age cohorts require higher offers than the 25% (US layperson) – 31% (US elite) we noted in the prior study to accept a deal. They range from a low of 34.7% (oldest) to 42.4% (those born between 1951 and 1975). Worth noting: lead Chinese negotiator Liu He was born in 1952. On the other side of the table, the mean offer for a Chinese UG player was also higher than average: 46 – 54% versus the 40% – 43% noted above. The bottom line here is that while this is just one study the numbers show a marked cultural difference between Chinese and American participants.”

“Where this leaves us: the Ultimatum Game is a good reminder that human decision-making during negotiations follows emotional guideposts, not financial/economic ones. Professional negotiators are no different than anyone else on that point and have even loftier expectations than laypeople. Culture also plays an underappreciated role. That is why capital markets are so completely captured by US-China negotiations: they simply do not follow the cut-and-dried rules of profit maximization. Even if both sides truly want to cut a “fair” deal, how they reach one and what even fits that term will be deeply clouded by human emotion and judgment.”

Peak Oil Ombudsman on Sat, 11th May 2019 7:13 am

Professor Davy PrickFace you have no moral authority to lecture. You’re a hypocrite through and through.

You shall reap what you have sown so you are advised to calm your arrogant and smug proclamations. My God, your entire country was stolen from the Native American people. Your government signed peace treaty after peace treaty and you broke everyone. Thus, the saying, “The American’s speak with forked tongue never to be trusted.” In the United States census of 1890, only 200.000 Indians remained from what was originally a population in the millions. More than 250 tribes were butchered into extinction. Those few that remained were rounded-up and sent off to desolate concentration camps, euphemistically termed, “Indian Reservations”.

You have no moral standing to lecture anybody. Hypocrisy of the worst kind and we are sick of it.

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 7:28 am

“China Electric Vehicle Sales Jump 175%, Up To 4.8% Of Auto Market In January!” “There are good reasons for a decline in sales of conventional cars, as they could become outlawed soon. And then there is the autonomous-driving car prospect.”
Cherry picking cloggo strikes again. Cloggo, how about some vehicle numbers for the audience? LMFAO. That tells a different story hard to cheerlead.

“There may be a Chinese car recession, there is no Chinese recession.”
There is a global decline going on currently cloggo. This is most pronounced in your Eurotard land and secondly in China. This is likely because of structural and debt issues in Europe and export and debt issues in China. The US is heading down but slower mainly because of structural issues and fiscal pumping. The cloggo can’t stand the last man standing concept. Sorry cloggo, real number don’t lie but your cherry picked ones do.

“Sorry to disappoint empire dave, who is deep in his heart, scared to death for China. As he should be.”
Come on cloggo, I preach Real Green Deep Adaptation not a White Racist Eurotard Nazti PBM Empire. Huge difference between the two. One is reality based the other pure fantasy. You are also sickly salivating on another global war with mass casualties. Of course you pray this is a Sino American WW. Somehow you pray your Eurotard land will escape this great war. You drool for this war and you drool for a New Natzi PBM Reich. DISGUSTING

JuanP on Sat, 11th May 2019 7:29 am

this is a juanpee posting

Peak Oil Ombudsman on Sat, 11th May 2019 7:13 am

Cloggie on Sat, 11th May 2019 7:31 am

The world’s largest CO2 storage to be build near Rotterdam in the North Sea:

https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/05/11/worlds-largest-co2-storage-planned-in-the-north-sea/

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 7:35 am

“Professor Davy PrickFace you have no moral authority to lecture. You’re a hypocrite through and through.”
Childish putdowns of a wounded mentally ill person that needs medical attention

“You shall reap what you have sown so you are advised to calm your arrogant and smug proclamations.”
WTF are you talking about mental case?

“My God, your entire country was stolen from the Native American people.”
No shit just like your little postage stamp county did to your Native people. BTW you need to move back to your country because you are an illegal alien in mine.

“Your government signed peace treaty after peace treaty and you broke everyone. Thus, the saying, “The American’s speak with forked tongue never to be trusted.” In the United States census of 1890, only 200.000 Indians remained from what was originally a population in the millions. More than 250 tribes were butchered into extinction. Those few that remained were rounded-up and sent off to desolate concentration camps, euphemistically termed, “Indian Reservations”.
No shit Sherlock and I challenge you to document where I supported this. I have been ridiculed by your buddy cloggo for admiring and following Native American spirituality. This spirituality is something your dumbass should follow instead of Miami Beach playboy behavior which is disgusting and dirty. FUCK JUANPEE.

“You have no moral standing to lecture anybody. Hypocrisy of the worst kind and we are sick of it.”
I have 1000 times more than you do you dirty illegal alien and morally corrupt asswipe.

DerHundistLos on Sat, 11th May 2019 7:55 am

Thanks, Don, your plan for protecting polluters has been a SMASHING success.

Bannon quipped, “The Trump administration’s barometer of success will occur when the Cuyahoga river catches on fire as it did in 1969.”

Well, Steve, I hope it does. We deserve it.

Across the agencies, enforcement actions against polluters, banks, and corporations have dwindled. The Environmental Protection Agency collected a mere $69 million in civil and administrative penalties from polluters in 2018, the lowest amount levied by the agency in more than a decade. Criminal fines collected by the EPA from polluters plunged to $88 million, the lowest total for such penalties assessed in a decade. In 2018, EPA referred the fewest new criminal cases to the Justice Department in any year since 1988.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/05/trump-bannon-administrative-state-epa-rosenstein-polluters-win.html

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 7:56 am

“Dual Axis Solar Tracker Field Performance Yields 27.7% ROI”
https://tinyurl.com/yymo3vqu clean technical

“While other companies make small-scale dual axis trackers with only 24 solar panels per table, the Mechatron tracker supports 100 panels on a single pole mount, taking advantage of the late afternoon boost that the design produces compared with single-axis and fixed technology. The M18kD tracker can move with a 340° of azimuthal motion range and a 0-60° elevation motion range, orienting itself towards the sun more precisely than the other technologies. The M18kD accuracy in locating the position of the sun is based in part on an astronomical algorithm both azimuthally (around its horizontal axis) and in zenith motion (around its vertical axis). Operating in conjunction with digital positioning sensors and digital inclinometer, the system optimizes the maximum power point for electricity production. The design of the M18kD structure is inspired by the exoskeleton of a beetle, known for its superior strength-to-weight ratio. The structure is a combination of an elliptical tube design (similar to the wing of a wind turbine) and a simple lattice structure, which holds the PV panels. The elliptical tube provides superior rigid enforcement and strength while the lattice structure transfers the structural load safely. This also makes for higher structural rigidity, better panel alignment and longer life, notes Michael Fakukakis, the CEO of Mechatron, based in Stockton, CA.”

Anonymouse on Sat, 11th May 2019 8:01 am

And that, is why we call you Delusional Davy, prick-face. This AM has been vertible gold-mine of industrial-grade Davytard goat-shit from you.

Im flattered btw, that you are totally ok with having a spammy, OT, brain-damaged jew pretending to be some sort of vaguely ‘Natzi-like slug’ hanging around 24/7, but you think I am the one that needs an IP ban.

ROFL.

Looks like you thought than one through.

Dumbass prick-face.

Anonymouse on Sat, 11th May 2019 8:05 am

OH, I love you JuanP.

Not Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 8:50 am

Anonymouse on Sat, 11th May 2019 8:05 am
OH, I love you JuanP

I don’t steal other people handles. That would be childish.

Davy on Sat, 11th May 2019 9:04 am

This is another one of my paranoid delusions.

JuanP on Sat, 11th May 2019 7:29 am
this is a juanpee posting
Peak Oil Ombudsman on Sat, 11th May 2019 7:13 am

JuanP on Sat, 11th May 2019 9:08 am

The Peculiar Blindness of Experts

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