Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on August 23, 2019
A math equation that predicts the end of humanity
Warning: Trying to access array offset on false in /var/www/peakoil.com/public_html/wp-content/plugins/random-image-widget/random_image.php on line 138
Warning: Trying to access array offset on false in /var/www/peakoil.com/public_html/wp-content/plugins/random-image-widget/random_image.php on line 139
The most mind-boggling controversy in the contemporary philosophy of science is the “doomsday argument,” a claim that a mathematical formula can predict how long the human race will survive. It gives us even odds that our species will meet its end within the next 760 years.
The doomsday argument doesn’t tell what’s going to kill us — it just gives the date (very, very approximately).
When I first came across this idea, I thought it was absurd. A prediction must be founded on data, not math! That is by no means an uncommon reaction. One critic, physicist Eric J. Lerner, branded doomsday “pseudo-science, a mere manipulation of numbers.”
Yet I now believe the doomsday prediction merits serious attention — I’ve written my latest book about it. Start with J. Richard Gott III. He’s a Princeton astrophysicist, one of several scholars who independently formulated the doomsday argument in the last decades of the 20th century. (Others are physicists Holger Bech Nielsen and Brandon Carter and philosopher John Leslie.) In 1969, Gott was a physics undergraduate fresh out of Harvard, spending the summer in Europe. At a visit to the Berlin Wall, he did a quick calculation and announced to a friend: The Berlin Wall will stand at least 2 and 2/3 more years but no more than 24 more years.
Demolition on the wall began 21 years later. This motivated Gott to write his method up. He published it in the journal Nature in 1993. There, Gott wrote of the future of humanity itself. He forecast a 95 percent chance that the human race would cease to exist within 12 to 18,000 years.
Not all Nature readers were convinced. “‘There are lies, damn lies and statistics’ is one of those colourful phrases that bedevil poor workaday statisticians,” biostatistician Steven N. Goodman complained in a letter to Nature. “In my view, the statistical methodology of Gott … breathes unfortunate new life into the saying.”
Yet Gott and his predictions also received favorable attention in the New York Times and the New Yorker (where a profile of Gott was titled “How to Predict Everything”). Gott is an engaging storyteller with a Kentucky accent that’s survived decades in the Ivy League. He has become a sort of scientific soothsayer, successfully predicting the runs of Broadway plays and when the Chicago White Sox would again win the World Series (they did in 2005).
Can it really be that easy to predict “everything”? It quickly became clear that 1) most scholars believe the doomsday argument is wrong, and 2) there is no consensus on why it’s wrong. To this day, Gott’s method, and a related one developed by Carter and Leslie, inspire a lively stream of journal articles.
The logic of the doomsday equation, explained
Gott calls his prediction technique the Copernican method. Copernicus, the great Renaissance astronomer, asserted that the Earth is not the center of the universe. Over the past centuries, astronomers have generalized this claim to the credo that humanity’s position in the universe is unlikely to be central or special. Our sun is an ordinary star in an ordinary galaxy. The cosmic “you are here” dot says we’re smack in the middle of Randomville.
The Copernican principle is normally uncontroversial when applied to an observer’s location in space. Gott’s idea was, why not apply it to a location in time?
You can sketch Gott’s logic on a napkin. Represent the Berlin Wall’s existence through time as a bar, like the time bar of a video. It’s got a beginning, a middle, and an end.
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16680423/Doomsday1.png)
Gott’s insight was that learning the past duration of the wall gives a clue to its future duration. For a random tourist, that past duration is likely to be a substantial fraction of the wall’s past-and-future existence. This allows an order-of-magnitude estimate of the future duration.
Suppose you had visited the wall at the 25 percent point in the timeline. At that moment, the wall’s future would have been three times as long as its past (75 percent is three times 25 percent).
Or pretend you visited at the 75 percent point. Then the future would have been only one-third the past duration.
Now take a deep breath. Imagine that a tourist wanted to make this prediction:
“The future duration of the Berlin Wall will be between one-third and three times as long as its past duration.”
This statement would have turned out to be true for anyone who visited the wall in the shaded part of the diagram. Because the shaded region is half the bar, we can say that, for half the days of the Berlin Wall’s existence, this prediction would have been correct.
Gott made that prediction, except that he also made use of the knowledge that the wall was then eight years old. He computed the most likely future duration to be between 8/3 and 8×3 (2.67 and 24) more years.
He reasoned that this prediction had a 50 percent chance of being right. You may feel that 50 percent is too wishy-washy and Gott just got lucky. No problem: The method can supply predictions with any degree of confidence you choose. To achieve 95 percent confidence, you’d make a diagram with the shaded region covering the middle 95 percent of the bar. The prediction range would be wider (from 1/39 to 39 times the past duration). Had Gott used this formulation, his prediction for the wall’s ceasing to exist would have been 0.21 to 312 years after his visit. This is less impressive, given the extremely wide range — but it would have been correct, too.
In short, the Copernican method is a mathematical parlor trick that does what it claims to do. You must encounter something of unknown duration at a random point in time (both important conditions!). But if you meet those conditions, it works.
So, how much longer do we have?
Homo sapiens has been around for about 200,000 years. There has been a huge population explosion in the past few millennia. Thus, as a random observer of my own species, I am far more likely to be living at a time when more humans are living (such as right now). This needs to be taken into account. The easiest way to do that is to use human lives, rather than years, as the marker of time.
Imagine a complete, chronological list of the human race: every person who ever lived or will have lived, sorted by time of birth. I will again represent it as a horizontal bar.
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16680425/Doomsday2.png)
Half the people who will ever live are in the first half of the list. Half are in the second half. These statements are necessarily right, no matter how long or short the list may end up being.
I’m curious as to where my name falls in that list. I could be relatively early, if humanity has a long, populous future ahead. I could also be late in the list — if something catastrophic is about to happen, and there won’t be many generations after mine.
Suppose that some people want to make this prediction:
“The number of future births will be less than the number of past births.”
This claim will be true for the people in the second half of the list (the shaded area). Is it true for me? I can’t say, other than that, according to Gott’s assumptions, there’s a 50 percent chance it is.
Demographers have estimated the total number of people who ever lived at about 100 billion. That means that about 100 billion people were born before me. Currently, about 130 million people are born each year. At that rate, it would take only about 760 years for another 100 billion more people to be born. That’s the basis of the claim that there’s a 50 percent chance that humans will become extinct within about 760 years. The flip side of the claim is there’s also a 50 percent chance we’ll survive past 760 years, possibly long past that.
As Holger Bech Nielsen pointed out, the latter part of this estimation isn’t airtight. A sharp decrease in the birthrate could postpone doomsday. Yet it’s hard to put an upbeat spin on that. It might mean a global catastrophe leaving a handful of post-apocalyptic survivors.
There has been speculation about how future technology might change the human condition. Genetically or digitally enhanced humans could live for centuries and have few children. The doomsday calculation’s notion of “human lives” may need reworking to allow for that.
Yet even this does not seem to offer an easy out. What the doomsday argument says, fundamentally, is that the human future is not so long and populous as we generally think. Will we resolve our differences, save the planet, and go on to explore the galaxy? Gott’s Magic 8 Ball says, “VERY DOUBTFUL.”
Why critics object to the doomsday argument
Criticisms of the doomsday argument are legion. Steven Goodman felt that Gott was misusing the “principle of indifference.” This says that, when you know nothing about which possible outcome will arise, you should assign them equal probabilities.
An illustration: Alice has no idea whether a coin toss will land heads or tails. She assigns both the same 50 percent chance — using the principle of indifference. Ironically, it’s Alice’s ignorance about the toss that justifies this.
Ben happens to know a trick coin is being used, and he says the chance of heads is 100 percent. Both Alice and Ben are being reasonable; they just know different things.
Gott’s version of doomsday derives from one big, bold assumption: that we can know nothing about where we stand in the ultimate timeline of human existence. Goodman objected that one could, in principle, have any sort of knowledge about our position in the human timeline. If so, Gott’s math need not apply.
Another objection centers on the “self-indication assumption.” As proposed by physicist Dennis Dieks and others, this says that we should favor hypotheses that have more intelligent beings over those that have fewer. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between hypothesis (1), which says 200 billion humans will be born before doomsday, and (2), which says that 200 trillion humans are destined to exist. You can then make the metaphysical case: “I’m a unique human being. The chance of me existing is 1,000 times greater with (2) than (1). That gives me reason to think (2) is more likely to be right.”
Should you accept the self-indication assumption, it cancels out the doomsday argument. That is an appealing prospect, but philosopher Nick Bostrom has raised compelling objections to the assumption. For instance: It is currently theorized that our universe is part of a multiverse containing an infinite number of other universes, and presumably an infinite number of intelligent observers. Invoke the self-indication assumption, and there is an overwhelming statistical case for the multiverse theory! But no one accepts that, nor should they. Dieks himself accepted Bostrom’s argument that the assumption is flawed.
How I came to accept the doomsday math
Writing a book about other people’s conflicting beliefs is an invitation to reexamine your own. There is a simple way of evading the doomsday prediction, one I mentioned above. Should I (reasonably) believe I’m not at a random point in human existence, then the doomsday math doesn’t apply to me.
Technological optimists say we have a long, populous future ahead (and therefore we’re still early in that glorious destiny). It’s an attractive thought. I kept asking myself: Why should I believe we have a long future? The best I could come up with is that we’ve gotten out of all the scrapes we’ve been in in the past. Humanity has survived mammoths, malaria, and atom bombs. Nothing’s killed us off yet.
But that’s like the joke about the optimist who’s fallen out of a 100-story building. He’s passed 90 stories and says to himself, “So far, so good!” We would, of course, have to find that we’ve surmounted all extinction threats — right up to the moment of doomsday.
The doomsday argument pulls back the curtain on technocratic optimism. It forces us to contemplate the possibility that we, and the universe, are more random than we like to think. The fact that our species is capable of a long future does not mean this is probable. It may be something that has to be earned by being smarter, wiser, kinder, more careful — and luckier — than we’ve ever had to be before.
William Poundstone is the author of 16 books, including The Doomsday Calculation: How a Formula That Predicts the Future Is Transforming Everything We Know About Life and the Universe. He has written for the New York Times, Harper’s, and Harvard Business Review, among other publications. He lives in Los Angeles. You can read more about the doomsday debate on Quora.
165 Comments on "A math equation that predicts the end of humanity"
Duncan Idaho on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 11:46 am
Venezuela probably holds the “Trump” Cards in the long run, with the largest reserves.
Bolton, and the other rabid neoliberals are going to lose on this one, with greed and looting wet dreams subsiding.
I agree, many players will be gone shortly.
Cloggie on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 12:13 pm
“One of the basic assumptions or “Paradigms” that is keeping a lid on the price of oil is the belief that U.S. oil production will continue going up year-after-year. This paradigm is second only to the fear that the tariff war between the U.S. and China will go on for years, causing a global recession. FEAR has caused oil prices to fall back into the mid-$50s, not supply / demand fundamentals. It is important that energy sector investors know what’s going on in the real world because $55 oil is not a sustainable price for the world’s most important commodity.”
That’s excellent news for the global renewable energy industry!
Their prices are coming down.
Oil = fuel + storage
Renewable energy base = generation + storage (2 separate things.
At some point in time the two price curves will intersect.
That’ll be the day.
Robert Inget on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 12:25 pm
Oh, in case ya didn’t know, USA export crude oil is included in Trumps 10% tariffs.
{China turned around and placed a 15% export tax on Bamboo Shoots}.
That’s gonna really hurt.
Support American Farmers, Eat more tofu. OK,
Eat any tofu or, at least corn dogs.
{shoot story, fake news}
Davy on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 12:52 pm
“Venezuela probably holds the “Trump” Cards in the long run, with the largest reserves.”
Idaho, maybe you should review what kind of oil is in Venezuela and no it is not slightly heavy, much of it is seriously heavy and dirty. Largest reserves are only the case if they come up with an economic production process. I would frame Venezuela as having the world’s largest oil resource. I would speculate that most of it will remain in the ground because net energy is not there.
Robert Inget on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 1:10 pm
Trump denies he ever day-lighted the idea of dropping a nuclear weapon into the eye of a hurricane. (during a Homeland Security meeting.
two people at the meeting confirmed)
There is a storm headed to Puerto Rico.
I advise all PR’s residents to stock up on paper towels.
Duncan Idaho on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 1:14 pm
The Fat Boy is getting a lesson from China.
But, after 6 bankruptcies, he probably could care less.
The Presidency is perfect for Trump– he can’t go bankrupt.
Robert Inget on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 1:20 pm
Exxon Mobil built one of the largest refineries in the US on GOM shores.
Two reasons;
1) Venezuelan (oil sands) crude.
2) Canadian (oil sands) crude.
Shale condensates make lousy distillates.
Heavy (sour) crude make great distillates.
Robert Inget on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 1:22 pm
Everyone’s worst nightmare;
Trump’s War on Trade morphs into a currency war.
Davy on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 1:30 pm
“A Critical Threshold Has Just Been Crossed, And Things Will Never Be The Same Again…”
https://tinyurl.com/yxehzu2k zero hedge
“Just when things seemed to be settling down a little bit, our conflict with China has suddenly escalated to a dangerous new phase.”
“This is not simply just a “trade war” any longer, and our relationship with China will never be the same again. As you will see below, President Trump just referred to Chinese President Xi Jinping as our “enemy”, and this is something that the Chinese are going to take extremely seriously. In China, the national leader is a representation of the government as a whole, and the government as a whole is a representation of the entire county. So to the Chinese people, what Trump just said will be interpreted as “the United States and China are now enemies”. ”
“Over and over again, I have kept warning my readers that our relations with China were going to get progressively worse. We have been expecting this for a long time, but most Americans still do not grasp the implications of this crisis.”
“This conflict between the United States and China is going to change everything. An extraordinary amount of pain is heading our way, and our society is completely and utterly unprepared to handle it.”
JuanP on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 1:31 pm
“A Critical Threshold Has Just Been Crossed, And Things Will Never Be The Same Again…”
https://tinyurl.com/yxehzu2k zero hedge
“Just when things seemed to be settling down a little bit, our conflict with China has suddenly escalated to a dangerous new phase.”
“This is not simply just a “trade war” any longer, and our relationship with China will never be the same again. As you will see below, President Trump just referred to Chinese President Xi Jinping as our “enemy”, and this is something that the Chinese are going to take extremely seriously. In China, the national leader is a representation of the government as a whole, and the government as a whole is a representation of the entire county. So to the Chinese people, what Trump just said will be interpreted as “the United States and China are now enemies”. ”
“Over and over again, I have kept warning my readers that our relations with China were going to get progressively worse. We have been expecting this for a long time, but most Americans still do not grasp the implications of this crisis.”
“This conflict between the United States and China is going to change everything. An extraordinary amount of pain is heading our way, and our society is completely and utterly unprepared to handle it.”
JuanP on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 1:32 pm
oops that link should have been from http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/
Davy on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 1:36 pm
Davy is turning in for the night. It is 8:30pm in Italy. Any Davy comments for next several hours are from the lunatic juanpee.
Davy on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 1:37 pm
Bullshit juanpee. I got that article from zerohedge.
LIAR!
juanpee ID fraud on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 1:39 pm
Davy on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 1:36 pm
Robert Inget on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 1:53 pm
zerohedge
@zerohedge
·
11m
One thing that should be tweeted every single day until there are no more central banks, is this from Mark Carney’s J-Hole speech:
“Past instances of very low rates have tended to coincide with high risk events such as wars, financial crises, and breaks in the monetary regime.”
(European banks are selling 100 year bonds @ 2%)
Since introduced, these 100 yr’s are selling @102.
IOW the bet is on for deflation.
Duncan Idaho on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 2:02 pm
Shale condensates make lousy distillates.
Heavy (sour) crude make great distillates.
Can you say diesel? I knew you could!
The world runs on diesel.
Shale has almost no diesel.
Robert Inget on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 4:14 pm
Distillates covers an entire waterfront; Jet Fuel, Heating oil (HO),Chemicals, several types of diesel/with various sulfur content, lube oil, asphalt to roofing tar.
makati1 on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 5:56 pm
Out of the frying pan into the fire Davy?
“Doomed: How There’s No Way Out Of The Debt Crisis For Italy”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2019/06/20/doomed-how-theres-no-way-out-of-the-debt-crisis-for-italy/#79aeb6d568bb
“Italy’s ‘perma-recession’ could trigger a €2 trillion financial crisis that threatens the eurozone itself”
https://www.businessinsider.com/italy-perma-recession-systemic-crisis-threatens-eurozone-2019-4
“Why is Italy still the sick man of Europe?”
https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-italy-still-the-sick-man-of-europe/a-48500455
“Italy faces ‘momentous moment’ amid political fights, threats and instability”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/04/italy-in-crisis-amid-political-fights-threats-and-instability.html
And on and on… And not one article from ZH. LOL
Dr. C. Everett Koop on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 6:15 pm
“Davy is turning in for the night. It is 8:30pm in Italy.”
This, folks, is the definition of narcissistic personality disorder coupled with illusions of grandeur.
News flash… NOBODY except you and your socks gives a damn when you go nighty night or when you have a bowel movement/
Fixing on too many cocoa puffs in Italy-LOL.
makati1 on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 6:18 pm
The whole oily mess is about to crash into bankruptcy heaven. How do you price your product when there are hundreds of competitors that want all the $$$$ they can get while fighting for customer share? How do you know what will be on the market next year or 5 years from now and at what price?
It was so simple when just the US was the major producer and then along came the Saudis and the fun began. Oh yes, it is fun…for those not invested career-wise or financially in the insanity. Of course, I realize that I am indirectly involved because I purchase oily products, but I am cutting them to the bone and can do without them if necessary. Can you?
BTW: Oil consumption per capita (bbl/day per 1000 people)
US 61.02 bbls/day
Russia 15.43
China 7.00
Philippines 2.99 bbls/day ( ~1/20th that of the US )
https://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=91000
Who will have the most pain?
Sissyfuss on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 6:54 pm
Trump is graduating to tossing toilet paper to the victims of the next new normal hurricane. After all, he an asswipe of monumental proportions
elqardashianalamerikiakafmr on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 6:57 pm
so i purchase muzzies for $1 and allah purchased them for nothing, you say i’m bad?
i quote muzzie text “lo’ allah has purchased muzzies they kill infidels and be killed for allah”
that’s why they detonate around the world into bits. so amputation is minor issue in comparison.
makati1 on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 6:58 pm
Great analogy, Sissyfuss! I’m sure he is full of the need himself. ^_^
makati1 on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 6:59 pm
el… have you missed your meds today? Go somewhere else to post your druggie comments.
elqardashian-alamerikiakafmr on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 7:00 pm
actually i know more about muzzie than typical muzzies because i study from the best and i’ll tell you who they are
#1 is immam supertard big muzzie beard
#2 imam fitzgerald vs imam andrew harrod
#imam supertard andrew bostom
#imam supertard christie douglas willaims pbuH
#imam supertard gravemen image
#big muzzie love imam supertard mortimer
#imam supertard of peace imam tawhidi pbuh i like him.
all you have is love and your catchy phrase is love conquer all. it doesn’t. just ask the extinct christians and all nom muzzies in the ME and north africa.
elqardashian-alamerikiakafmr on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 7:12 pm
aswang i’m here to moderate your exrememis when supertard is enjoying italy. all you can do is smear me with meds comment
makati1 on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 7:18 pm
el…you are here to cause trouble. Nothing more. Go somewhere else to play. Try a double dose of whatever you are using. It cannot hurt. LOL
Juanpee mental illness socking on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 7:54 pm
“Juanpablo former (paul)tard(Pablo)” bullshit get yourself into Douglas Gardens lunatic:
elqardashian-alamerikiakafmr said aswang i’m here to moderate your exrememis w…
elqardashian-alamerikiakafmr said actually i know more about muzzie than typical muz…
elqardashianalamerikiakafmr said so i purchase muzzies for $1 and allah purchased t…
Dr. C. Everett Koop said “Davy is turning in for the night. It is 8:3…
elqardashianalameriki-akafmr said if you love muzzies so much why don’t you go…
elqadarshianalameriki-akafmr said hey anonymouse the tard aka c everett koop with bi…
Davy on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 8:00 pm
“Out of the frying pan into the fire Davy?”
Makato, Italians have a good life that blows away your 3rd world mess in the P’s. As far as the frying pan are you being cute? I am here with my wife who is in the hospital. She is recovering and will soon be with her family to finish here time here in Italy. I will be returning home to the farm. I would much rather be here or the farm than your crazy unraveling overpopulated Asian mess.
Sissyfuss on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 8:11 pm
Fmrtardpresently is speaking from his LSD half of his brain, the top half. I dealt with the developmentally disadvantaged in a former career and he talks like many of my former patients. His brain is flowing smoothly but can’t slow down enough to latch on to the moment. He’s a muzzle loving Tesla.
Davy on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 8:11 pm
“I’m Not Going Nuts”: Biden Swears He’s Sane Amid Senior Moments And Gaffes Galore”
https://tinyurl.com/yyk27vpf zero hedge
“While the anti-Trump media has pivoted back to the whole ‘Trump is crazy’ / 25th Amendment impeachment fantasy revived by GOP challengers Bill Weld and Joe Walsh, former Vice President Joe Biden’s stumbling senior moments have gotten so bad that he’s now swearing he’s sane. “I want to be clear, I’m not going nuts,” Biden insisted on Friday, after he forgot where he was speaking from – praising Vermont when asked about his impression of Keene, NH.”
Kind of reminds me of a bob and makato comment
Cloggie on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 8:36 pm
““Doomed: How There’s No Way Out Of The Debt Crisis For Italy”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2019/06/20/doomed-how-theres-no-way-out-of-the-debt-crisis-for-italy/#79aeb6d568bb
“
We have been through thus several times before. Italian public debt is the only negative indicator of that country. The reason is tax evasion. On the plus-side, Italy has an insane low average mortgage of ca 17k.
Italy is a surplus country:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_current_account_balance
The truth is that Italy is financially the most stable, sustainable country of the entire western world:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2012/12/11/the-real-state-of-western-finances/
Forbes hasn’t done its homework.
elqardashian-alamerikiakafmr on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 9:01 pm
bad news for you guys, don’t thinkk Big Goat is vacationing in itality with his italian guy and didn’t leave me in charge. I’ll monitor your extremism even harder than he is.
you said “2nd world” and us is failed state.
That’s weird, I haven’t heard Big Grab (the p) sharing power with muzzies.
you’re the smartest among non supertard and you say the dumbest thing. sometimes it makes me think your russian handlers are sleeping at the wheel, or you pull something good out of your gaping rear end cavern.
you love muzzies so much it causes you to go blind. i forgive you because you only love muzzies 2x. Cops love deepy, and the deepest they love is for muzzies. muzzie shot 6 cops in philadelphia and they love them 6x more.
i’m only a follower of supertard, i will enforce his will.
some day big goat will tell supertard sis to tell uppertard dan c to close this down. i’m sure that’d happen when the dam breaks. but master magician still has a few tricks up sleeves yet.
Davy on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 9:31 pm
“Dr.Doom Exposes The Anatomy Of The Coming Recession”
https://tinyurl.com/y3ymfg39 project syndicate via zero hedge
There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the center of each. Moreover, none of them is amenable to the traditional tools of countercyclical macroeconomic policy. The first potential shock stems from the Sino-American trade and currency war…The second concerns the slow-brewing cold war between the US and China over technology In a rivalry that has all the hallmarks of a “Thucydides Trap,” China and America are vying for dominance over the industries of the future: artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, 5G, and so forth.…The third major risk concerns oil supplies. Although oil prices have fallen in recent weeks, and a recession triggered by a trade, currency, and tech war would depress energy demand and drive prices lower, America’s confrontation with Iran could have the opposite effect…All three of these potential shocks would have a stagflationary effect, increasing the price of imported consumer goods, intermediate inputs, technological components, and energy, while reducing output by disrupting global supply chains. Worse, the Sino-American conflict is already fueling a broader process of deglobalization, because countries and firms can no longer count on the long-term stability of these integrated value chains. As trade in goods, services, capital, labor, information, data, and technology becomes increasingly balkanized, global production costs will rise across all industries. Moreover, the trade and currency war and the competition over technology will amplify one another…It is easy to imagine how today’s situation could lead to a full-scale implosion of the open global trading system. The question, then, is whether monetary and fiscal policymakers are prepared for a sustained – or even permanent – negative supply shock…in fact, with firms in the US, Europe, China, and other parts of Asia having reined in capital expenditures, the global tech, manufacturing, and industrial sector is already in a recession. The only reason why that hasn’t yet translated into a global slump is that private consumption has remained strong. Should the price of imported goods rise further as a result of any of these negative supply shocks, real (inflation-adjusted) disposable household income growth would take a hit, as would consumer confidence, likely tipping the global economy into a recession…Finally, there is an important difference between the 2008 global financial crisis and the negative supply shocks that could hit the global economy today. Because the former was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock that depressed growth and inflation, it was appropriately met with monetary and fiscal stimulus. But this time, the world would be confronting sustained negative supply shocks that would require a very different kind of policy response over the medium term. Trying to undo the damage through never-ending monetary and fiscal stimulus will not be a sensible option.
Davy on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 9:31 pm
Not many are still here from the early days when many of us saw collapse imminent based on peak oil and the financial crisis QE and rate repression leading to out of control debt and destruction of fiat currency values. This was the “new normal” of Ponzi economics. Ponzi always end in tears why should it be different at the global level. We were temporarily proved wrong by shale, renewable growth, and the tremendous power of central banks debt engines. Previous bad debt from the 08 crisis just disappeared and was swept away in rising financial system values. This was amplified by the Chinese credit impulse of the largest build out of a civilization in all of human history. China transformed itself into a modern nation for a middle-class equivalent to the population of the US complete with mega cities and highways.
Yet, shale is likely a retirement party. It is economic oil and it also suffers depletion of sweet spots that are economic. Oil is still dominant to the global economy with renewables as a far-off alternative. Meanwhile the mainstay of oil is the supper giants in the steady decline of natural depletion. The other elephant in the room is a global world based on debt and credit with ultra-low rates and managed central bank liquidity. This has worked well for a decade along with the Chinese economic miracle but as we approach yet another financial crisis the situation is different with trade conflict and potential oil in conflict. We have central banks no longer able to draw on tools to lift activity. The important aspect to central bank tools of the past was the demand forces that could inflate a new bubble. After the last financial crisis that was China and the financial markets. Central banks were able to reflate then but likely not now. China is hard landing and the financial markets are many times their reasonable value. I see little that can stop a recession or worse. We stopped the Great Financial Crisis because of cooperation. Confidence is liquidity and without cooperation confidence is not there.
I am a proponent of degrowth. I want to see deglobalization as a way to manage planetary problems. Yet, I am not one of those fake greens who think this will be a benign process. It will be very painful and could cascade out of control. I see this as a gamble of a doctor prescribing a treatment that impacts the patient like an induced illness such as an aggressive chemo. If we are lucky, we can slow this human system down some to buy us time to adapt and mitigate what will surely be worse coming. The human system going full speed without the wise management that comes with times of crisis could mean getting to a break point much sooner. The big question is can we degrowth with deglobalization and a resulting multipolar economic and political world? Nobody knows that answer. If China and the US decouple then there will be two worlds likely with Europe a bridge and the rest of the world doing an ad hoc dance between the two powers.
This is a defining time. If you are able you might want to get your house in order, organize and rid yourself of dead wood. Lean times are likely ahead. A decade has past since my doom meter was as high as it is now but I also see optimism if we can make it through this deglobalization period. This coming crisis might get our attention. We as a global people might be able to degrowth which is really just a bubble deflation. A bubble was all globalism really was. All the wonderful tech that surfaced since 08 resulted from a financial bubble. This time around it will be human behavior that can save us from the worse. Tech is not going to do it.
Davy on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 9:45 pm
“The Benefits Of A Profoundly Shattering Recession”
https://tinyurl.com/yyu95tl6 charles hugh smith via zero hedge
“A profoundly shattering recession requires patience, fortitude and an awareness that the sacrifices demanded will be worth the pain if we rid our society of at least the top layer of financial and political parasites and predators that have corrupted our economy, our governance and our society. Does anyone really think The Everything Bubble can just keep inflating forever? Surely nobody’s that deluded. The global economy is destabilizing, and we’re about to discover there is no way to halt a profoundly shattering recession. We have a once in 80 years opportunity to right the ship before it sinks into oblivion.”
makati1 on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 9:59 pm
Davy, by definition, the Philippines is a 2nd world (developing)country, not 3rd world. As for your so called ‘wife” why should we believe that any more than your other lies? I didn’t know they had a hospital for goats in the Ozarks.
And, as usual, your are delusional about Italy also. How many refs do you want me to post about the decline and crash of Italy? I would not have room enough here to post them all. It is going down as fast as, or faster than, the fascist police state US.
But it is fun to watch…from here.
makati1 on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 10:02 pm
BTW: Why does she supposedly live in Italy when the US has the “best healthcare in the world”? Maybe she cannot stand you either? Just askin’. LMAO.
Oh, and if you are looking for pity, you won’t find it here. Go away.
Davy on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 10:37 pm
“BTW: Why does she supposedly live in Italy when the US has the “best healthcare in the world”? Maybe she cannot stand you either? Just askin’. LMAO.”
UH, where did I say she lives in Italy. Wow you are dense. She visits her family once a year for a month. I have said this for years now here in there in my comments but as usual you have your senior moments.
“Oh, and if you are looking for pity, you won’t find it here. Go away.”
Why would I look for sympathy out of you makato. You seek to belittle people to make yourself look better. What a small boring life you must have that you spend so much time talking yourself up and down others
makati1 on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 10:49 pm
Oh, and she accidentally got ill during here “annual” visit. Sounds very fishy Davy.
“You seek to belittle people to make yourself look better. What a small boring life you must have that you spend so much time talking yourself up and down others”.
Look in the mirror Davy. You are ALWAYS projecting your self on others.
You can only wish for the life I enjoy here 24/7/365. But you deserve the pain that is coming to all those who support the child killing empire. Hell will seem like a picnic in the park by comparison. Enjoy!
Davy on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 10:51 pm
“Davy, by definition, the Philippines is a 2nd world (developing)country, not 3rd world.
The P’s is a 2nd/3rd world country makato. Yet, the majority of the 108MIL live near poverty. Not that is a bad thing for many of these people because there is a subsitance culture and the place is beautiful but you would make it out to be a paradise with few problems. You are just a old man lost in your senior delusions.
“As for your so called ‘wife” why should we believe that any more than your other lies? I didn’t know they had a hospital for goats in the Ozarks.”
What lies makato? Do you have any documentation to support your unconscious feelings of inferiority? I have squashed your extremist shit and that has made you livid with hate. I find it hilarious that you say you live by the golden rule. You live by a selective golden rule just like your double standards and egotistical self-flattery. You basically disgust me and anyone who finds you a friend is likewise shallow.
“And, as usual, your are delusional about Italy also. How many refs do you want me to post about the decline and crash of Italy?”
Italians live one of the best lifestyles I has come across. I would not want to do business here but it is a wonderful place with a rich history. They eat and live well. You can talk all you want about the macro picture but Italy will not crash. They are too big to fail for Europe and the global system. This is something your uneducated mind can’t understand. You have no understanding of business, economics, or global finance. For you it is big or small numbers that help paint a picture of Asia rising with the west falling bullshit. Anyone can cheerlead their favorite sports club few can be honest with science and reality. You have lowered the intellectual standards here and I am glad you are here less and less.
Davy on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 11:01 pm
“Oh, and she accidentally got ill during here “annual” visit. Sounds very fishy Davy.”
Fuck you are dense old man. She likely got a tick or mosquito disease in the states or caught something coming over. Maybe she got it here. They have been doing multiple tests. She is getting better and will soon come home to her family. I came over because she was in intensive care. Normal people do these things for their loved ones unlike you. I have said all this earlier in comments but obviously you are too busy talking about yourself.
“Look in the mirror Davy. You are ALWAYS projecting your self on others.”
Bullshit, makato, I talk REAL Green which embraces humility. If you can follow REAL Green you should if you can’t then fine. It is individual and local and acknowledges a coming decline of civilization and the planet. You are almost dead so you could give a shit about either in fact I have noticed you have a feeling that since you are going to die soon it would be nice if the world ends too.
“You can only wish for the life I enjoy here 24/7/365. But you deserve the pain that is coming to all those who support the child killing empire. Hell will seem like a picnic in the park by comparison. Enjoy!”
Please, you can have your life there. REAL Green is not a competition. REAL Green offers others advice and is accepting of advice from others. This is not the case with you who heaps guilt and resentment on Americans. Some of the other fuck nut Americans here who buy into that shaming are just shallow and also full of hate and resentment. Your best friend here, JuanP, is a lunatic I think that says something about you. Go play with your monkeys then go to the beach and drink your daily beers. You could be with your family instead.
The Truth Shall Set You Free on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 11:09 pm
Davy aka elqardashian-alamerikiakafmr aka Sum is so desperate that he vacillates between being a Persian Davy lover to now a retarded Davy lover.
“i’m only a follower of supertard, i will enforce his will.”–Davy aka former retarded Paul.
“Mr. Davy, you are amazing keeper of the flame of truth”–Davy aka Sum.
Yep proof positive of Davy socks at work/
The Truth Shall Set You Free on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 11:19 pm
Shut-up liar and hypocrite extraordinaire DavyTurd. A couple of senior moments vs a habitual liar. You’re a disgusting spoiled rich, trust-fund baby who has never worked an honest day in your life.
Trump quotes on arms sale to Saudi Arabia:
March 20, 2018: We’re talking over 40,000 new jobs.
October 17, 2018: We’re talking over 500,000 new jobs.
October 19, 2018: We’re talking over 600,000 new jobs.
June 23, 2019: We’re talking over 1,000,000 new jobs
and probably more.
Liars and hypocrites stick together.
mindless juanpee trolling on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 11:40 pm
The Truth Shall Set You Free said Shut-up liar and hypocrite extraordinaire DavyTurd…
The Truth Shall Set You Free said Davy aka elqardashian-alamerikiakafmr aka Sum is s…
Douglas Gardens Community Mental Health Center http://www.dgcmhc.org
makati1 on Tue, 27th Aug 2019 12:43 am
Davy your grasp of the real world is very delusional, just like your fuhrer, Trump. For someone who has never been even near Asia, you proclaim to be an expert and deny the view of someone who has lived there for over 11 years. Does it hurt to see reality, delusional Davy? Could it be that you don’t want to see your cushy lifestyle go down the shitter/ Aw! Too bad! NOT! LMAO
elqardashian-alamerikiakafmr on Tue, 27th Aug 2019 12:47 am
now imam supertard grenn roberts is linking imam supertard Ivan Head with his thought on muzzie qutb inspiring the new jihad which the west is unprepared to cope. meanwhitel big goat is sittin’ pretty over the 10,000 acres, unsure when to start the learjet for a quick escape
makati1 on Tue, 27th Aug 2019 12:59 am
Davy, yes, goats are subject to fleas, ticks and mosquitoes. All animals, including humans, are. I thought they only lived in 3rd world countries? OH, that’s right! The US is now a 3rd world country. All of the dark ages diseases are popping up all over the US these days.
“In the past 10 years, outbreaks or new mechanisms of spread have been seen with diseases never seen before in the United States. In some cases, this has occurred in diseases never before recognized anywhere in the world. Examples are the SARS (new disease), West Nile Virus, influenza A (H1N1) (new disease) and monkey pox outbreaks, as well as the anthrax attack (new method of spread). For this column, we are speculating on diseases that might emerge or spread in the United States in the next five to 10 years. …
We will consider dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, Japanese encephalitis, influenza, multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB), MDR-gram negative bacilli, malaria and bioterrorism. Other possibilities for which there is too little space to consider are Trypanosoma cruzi from ingesting contaminated, imported foods, progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy from immunoactive drugs, prion disease, and vaccine preventable diseases, such as mumps, if vaccination levels fall as they have in some industrialized parts of the world. Of course, there is also the potential of introduction of a currently unknown or rare disease, most likely of animal origin. We must expect the unexpected, as it will surely occur.”
healio.com “Potential emerging diseases in the United States in the next five to 10 years” (2010)
I have seen a number of these in recent articles on the deteriorating US. Not a healthy place to live. To many pesticides, insecticides, antibiotic infested food supplies, etc. Then there are the multiplying rat problem: “These Are America’s 50 Most Rat-Infested Cities:”
1. Chicago, Illinois
2. Los Angeles, California
3. New York, New York
4. Washington, DC
5. San Francisco, California
6. Detroit, Michigan
7. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
8. Cleveland, Ohio
9. Baltimore, Maryland
10. Denver, Colorado
11. Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota
12. Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas
13. Boston, Massachusetts
14. Seattle, Washington
15. Atlanta, Georgia
16. Indianapolis, Indiana
17. Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Florida
18. Hartford, Connecticut
19. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
20. Cincinnati, Ohio
21. Milwaukee, Wisconsin
22. Charlotte, North Carolina
23. Houston, Texas
24. Portland, Oregon
25. Columbus, Ohio
26. San Diego, California
27. Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina
28. Buffalo, New York
29. New Orleans, Louisiana
30. Norfolk, Virginia
31. Richmond, Virginia
32. Albany, New York
33. Kansas City, Missouri
34. Portland, Maine
35. Nashville, Tennessee
36. St. Louis, Missouri
37. Sacramento, California
38. Greenville, South Carolina
39. Grand Rapids, Michigan
40. Phoenix, Arizona
41. Orlando, Florida
42. Tampa, Florida
43. Burlington, New York
44. Champaign, Illinois
45. Rochester, New York
46. Syracuse, New York
47. Charleston, West Virginia
48. Dayton, Ohio
49. Memphis, Tennessee
50. Flint, Michigan
https://mentalfloss.com/article/561029/most-rat-infested-cities-in-america
Slip slidin’ into the 3rd world, or worse.
Davy on Tue, 27th Aug 2019 1:00 am
“Davy your grasp of the real world is very delusional, just like your fuhrer, Trump.”
Translation: I have been moderated an neutered and have nothing to say but ad homs
“For someone who has never been even near Asia, you proclaim to be an expert and deny the view of someone who has lived there for over 11 years.”
Makato, you been to Manila, Infanta (where you currently live), and Hong Kong and you think you have been to Asia. You are a delusional senior. You get your news like I do on the net except you are a dishonest egotistical prick who wants to shame other while you talk up yourself.
“Does it hurt to see reality, delusional Davy? Could it be that you don’t want to see your cushy lifestyle go down the shitter/ Aw! Too bad! NOT! LMAO”
More translations: I have been moderated and neutered and have nothing to say but ad homs
Makato, you have had your opportunity to ignore me and I will ignore you but you can’t stand having your agenda trashed even if it is indirectly. You are a lost cause.
mindless juanpee trolling on Tue, 27th Aug 2019 1:01 am
elqardashian-alamerikiakafmr on Tue, 27th Aug 2019 12:47 am