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A math equation that predicts the end of humanity
The most mind-boggling controversy in the contemporary philosophy of science is the “doomsday argument,” a claim that a mathematical formula can predict how long the human race will survive. It gives us even odds that our species will meet its end within the next 760 years.
The doomsday argument doesn’t tell what’s going to kill us — it just gives the date (very, very approximately).
When I first came across this idea, I thought it was absurd. A prediction must be founded on data, not math! That is by no means an uncommon reaction. One critic, physicist Eric J. Lerner, branded doomsday “pseudo-science, a mere manipulation of numbers.”
Yet I now believe the doomsday prediction merits serious attention — I’ve written my latest book about it. Start with J. Richard Gott III. He’s a Princeton astrophysicist, one of several scholars who independently formulated the doomsday argument in the last decades of the 20th century. (Others are physicists Holger Bech Nielsen and Brandon Carter and philosopher John Leslie.) In 1969, Gott was a physics undergraduate fresh out of Harvard, spending the summer in Europe. At a visit to the Berlin Wall, he did a quick calculation and announced to a friend: The Berlin Wall will stand at least 2 and 2/3 more years but no more than 24 more years.
Demolition on the wall began 21 years later. This motivated Gott to write his method up. He published it in the journal Nature in 1993. There, Gott wrote of the future of humanity itself. He forecast a 95 percent chance that the human race would cease to exist within 12 to 18,000 years.
Not all Nature readers were convinced. “‘There are lies, damn lies and statistics’ is one of those colourful phrases that bedevil poor workaday statisticians,” biostatistician Steven N. Goodman complained in a letter to Nature. “In my view, the statistical methodology of Gott … breathes unfortunate new life into the saying.”
Yet Gott and his predictions also received favorable attention in the New York Times and the New Yorker (where a profile of Gott was titled “How to Predict Everything”). Gott is an engaging storyteller with a Kentucky accent that’s survived decades in the Ivy League. He has become a sort of scientific soothsayer, successfully predicting the runs of Broadway plays and when the Chicago White Sox would again win the World Series (they did in 2005).
Can it really be that easy to predict “everything”? It quickly became clear that 1) most scholars believe the doomsday argument is wrong, and 2) there is no consensus on why it’s wrong. To this day, Gott’s method, and a related one developed by Carter and Leslie, inspire a lively stream of journal articles.
The logic of the doomsday equation, explained
Gott calls his prediction technique the Copernican method. Copernicus, the great Renaissance astronomer, asserted that the Earth is not the center of the universe. Over the past centuries, astronomers have generalized this claim to the credo that humanity’s position in the universe is unlikely to be central or special. Our sun is an ordinary star in an ordinary galaxy. The cosmic “you are here” dot says we’re smack in the middle of Randomville.
The Copernican principle is normally uncontroversial when applied to an observer’s location in space. Gott’s idea was, why not apply it to a location in time?
You can sketch Gott’s logic on a napkin. Represent the Berlin Wall’s existence through time as a bar, like the time bar of a video. It’s got a beginning, a middle, and an end.
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16680423/Doomsday1.png)
Gott’s insight was that learning the past duration of the wall gives a clue to its future duration. For a random tourist, that past duration is likely to be a substantial fraction of the wall’s past-and-future existence. This allows an order-of-magnitude estimate of the future duration.
Suppose you had visited the wall at the 25 percent point in the timeline. At that moment, the wall’s future would have been three times as long as its past (75 percent is three times 25 percent).
Or pretend you visited at the 75 percent point. Then the future would have been only one-third the past duration.
Now take a deep breath. Imagine that a tourist wanted to make this prediction:
“The future duration of the Berlin Wall will be between one-third and three times as long as its past duration.”
This statement would have turned out to be true for anyone who visited the wall in the shaded part of the diagram. Because the shaded region is half the bar, we can say that, for half the days of the Berlin Wall’s existence, this prediction would have been correct.
Gott made that prediction, except that he also made use of the knowledge that the wall was then eight years old. He computed the most likely future duration to be between 8/3 and 8×3 (2.67 and 24) more years.
He reasoned that this prediction had a 50 percent chance of being right. You may feel that 50 percent is too wishy-washy and Gott just got lucky. No problem: The method can supply predictions with any degree of confidence you choose. To achieve 95 percent confidence, you’d make a diagram with the shaded region covering the middle 95 percent of the bar. The prediction range would be wider (from 1/39 to 39 times the past duration). Had Gott used this formulation, his prediction for the wall’s ceasing to exist would have been 0.21 to 312 years after his visit. This is less impressive, given the extremely wide range — but it would have been correct, too.
In short, the Copernican method is a mathematical parlor trick that does what it claims to do. You must encounter something of unknown duration at a random point in time (both important conditions!). But if you meet those conditions, it works.
So, how much longer do we have?
Homo sapiens has been around for about 200,000 years. There has been a huge population explosion in the past few millennia. Thus, as a random observer of my own species, I am far more likely to be living at a time when more humans are living (such as right now). This needs to be taken into account. The easiest way to do that is to use human lives, rather than years, as the marker of time.
Imagine a complete, chronological list of the human race: every person who ever lived or will have lived, sorted by time of birth. I will again represent it as a horizontal bar.
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16680425/Doomsday2.png)
Half the people who will ever live are in the first half of the list. Half are in the second half. These statements are necessarily right, no matter how long or short the list may end up being.
I’m curious as to where my name falls in that list. I could be relatively early, if humanity has a long, populous future ahead. I could also be late in the list — if something catastrophic is about to happen, and there won’t be many generations after mine.
Suppose that some people want to make this prediction:
“The number of future births will be less than the number of past births.”
This claim will be true for the people in the second half of the list (the shaded area). Is it true for me? I can’t say, other than that, according to Gott’s assumptions, there’s a 50 percent chance it is.
Demographers have estimated the total number of people who ever lived at about 100 billion. That means that about 100 billion people were born before me. Currently, about 130 million people are born each year. At that rate, it would take only about 760 years for another 100 billion more people to be born. That’s the basis of the claim that there’s a 50 percent chance that humans will become extinct within about 760 years. The flip side of the claim is there’s also a 50 percent chance we’ll survive past 760 years, possibly long past that.
As Holger Bech Nielsen pointed out, the latter part of this estimation isn’t airtight. A sharp decrease in the birthrate could postpone doomsday. Yet it’s hard to put an upbeat spin on that. It might mean a global catastrophe leaving a handful of post-apocalyptic survivors.
There has been speculation about how future technology might change the human condition. Genetically or digitally enhanced humans could live for centuries and have few children. The doomsday calculation’s notion of “human lives” may need reworking to allow for that.
Yet even this does not seem to offer an easy out. What the doomsday argument says, fundamentally, is that the human future is not so long and populous as we generally think. Will we resolve our differences, save the planet, and go on to explore the galaxy? Gott’s Magic 8 Ball says, “VERY DOUBTFUL.”
Why critics object to the doomsday argument
Criticisms of the doomsday argument are legion. Steven Goodman felt that Gott was misusing the “principle of indifference.” This says that, when you know nothing about which possible outcome will arise, you should assign them equal probabilities.
An illustration: Alice has no idea whether a coin toss will land heads or tails. She assigns both the same 50 percent chance — using the principle of indifference. Ironically, it’s Alice’s ignorance about the toss that justifies this.
Ben happens to know a trick coin is being used, and he says the chance of heads is 100 percent. Both Alice and Ben are being reasonable; they just know different things.
Gott’s version of doomsday derives from one big, bold assumption: that we can know nothing about where we stand in the ultimate timeline of human existence. Goodman objected that one could, in principle, have any sort of knowledge about our position in the human timeline. If so, Gott’s math need not apply.
Another objection centers on the “self-indication assumption.” As proposed by physicist Dennis Dieks and others, this says that we should favor hypotheses that have more intelligent beings over those that have fewer. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between hypothesis (1), which says 200 billion humans will be born before doomsday, and (2), which says that 200 trillion humans are destined to exist. You can then make the metaphysical case: “I’m a unique human being. The chance of me existing is 1,000 times greater with (2) than (1). That gives me reason to think (2) is more likely to be right.”
Should you accept the self-indication assumption, it cancels out the doomsday argument. That is an appealing prospect, but philosopher Nick Bostrom has raised compelling objections to the assumption. For instance: It is currently theorized that our universe is part of a multiverse containing an infinite number of other universes, and presumably an infinite number of intelligent observers. Invoke the self-indication assumption, and there is an overwhelming statistical case for the multiverse theory! But no one accepts that, nor should they. Dieks himself accepted Bostrom’s argument that the assumption is flawed.
How I came to accept the doomsday math
Writing a book about other people’s conflicting beliefs is an invitation to reexamine your own. There is a simple way of evading the doomsday prediction, one I mentioned above. Should I (reasonably) believe I’m not at a random point in human existence, then the doomsday math doesn’t apply to me.
Technological optimists say we have a long, populous future ahead (and therefore we’re still early in that glorious destiny). It’s an attractive thought. I kept asking myself: Why should I believe we have a long future? The best I could come up with is that we’ve gotten out of all the scrapes we’ve been in in the past. Humanity has survived mammoths, malaria, and atom bombs. Nothing’s killed us off yet.
But that’s like the joke about the optimist who’s fallen out of a 100-story building. He’s passed 90 stories and says to himself, “So far, so good!” We would, of course, have to find that we’ve surmounted all extinction threats — right up to the moment of doomsday.
The doomsday argument pulls back the curtain on technocratic optimism. It forces us to contemplate the possibility that we, and the universe, are more random than we like to think. The fact that our species is capable of a long future does not mean this is probable. It may be something that has to be earned by being smarter, wiser, kinder, more careful — and luckier — than we’ve ever had to be before.
William Poundstone is the author of 16 books, including The Doomsday Calculation: How a Formula That Predicts the Future Is Transforming Everything We Know About Life and the Universe. He has written for the New York Times, Harper’s, and Harvard Business Review, among other publications. He lives in Los Angeles. You can read more about the doomsday debate on Quora.
165 Comments on "A math equation that predicts the end of humanity"
makati1 on Fri, 23rd Aug 2019 6:56 pm
What a pile of worthless words…
More interesting are the tariff wars and the disintegration of the US from within. Best observed from the sidelines in a “neutral” country like the Philippines.
BTW: Has anyone told the HK fools that China does not have to invade, just shut off their power, water and food? Three days and the revolt would be over. No shots fired.
ANAL REAPER on Fri, 23rd Aug 2019 7:40 pm
FUCKING ANAL FAGGOTS.
TRUMP 2020 NIGGERS!
Commiejewswillgetanalgassdeath on Fri, 23rd Aug 2019 9:01 pm
Same math as your global warming bullshit predictions.
claes on Fri, 23rd Aug 2019 9:12 pm
Mak, then why don’t they do it?
” Has anyone told the HK fools that China does not have to invade, just shut off their power, water and food? Three days and the revolt would be over. No shots fired.”
Maybe it’s because they can’t
makati1 on Fri, 23rd Aug 2019 10:45 pm
Think claes… 27% of HK’s electric, 80% of its water and 90% of its food. Again, tell me how long they can survive with a shutoff?
A few thousand US bots vs ~7,500,000 normal residents. I don’t see this “revolt” lasting much longer either way.
makati1 on Fri, 23rd Aug 2019 11:02 pm
other reasons the HK US caused chaos will soon end…
“Hong Kong Chaos Crashes Earnings, Worst Since 2008”
“‘This Is An Appalling Kowtow To Beijing’ – Hong Kong Workers Fired For Supporting Protests”
Not to mention the 79th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party on October 1st.
Hong Kong is ALL about $$$$$ not ‘democracy’. The powers that be will not allow it to disrupt their income and wealth for much longer.
Davy on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 12:04 am
Technocratic optimism is much like bible thumping in that it is seeking immortality. True spirituality is a letting go into a higher power that is much greater. Instead of a human centric formula true spirituality is above and beyond humans. We are but part and expression of this whole. We can only approach what that is because the part can never know the whole. Instead modern humans want to be the part and the whole and know it all. Science is corrupted by this lack of wisdom as is spirituality. This corruption means we actually need to be less intelligent but wiser.
Wisdom is knowing what intelligence to embrace and what not to embrace. A specialized scientist is not much use except in a world of specialized science. Scientific specialization is a luxury not a force of nature. True sapience starts with the sustainability that produces a survival resilience of community and place. This does not mean a whole scale rejection of our accumulated knowledge. Nor does this mean the society of the technocratic or numerous religions including the pseudo religion of modern consumerism needs to be rejected. It should be understood that this is the natural evolution of a species like ours when it reaches the point of imbalance or overshoot.
This is the new ecosystem you must inhabit. This new ecosystem is not scaled properly in relation to the planet so as with any imbalanced force in nature balance will force a restoration maybe not in human timescales but planetary ones. Nothing defining can be done about this condition at the level of the human collective. There are far too many belief systems and communities vying for a place at the table. It is better to embrace this new ecosystem at the individual level and more importantly at the level of small community where adaptability can be attempted. For most of human history until the recent time where we embrace agriculture and the empire impulse man has been tribal and in small communities. Individually we can embrace this human background and still live amount the giants so to speak. The giants are the forces of delocalization that has globalized this earth and changed the planets beyond its balance.
It is not just the case that humans are out of balance and scale but also now this condition of a dominant species has destabilized the planet in regards to habitability for the web of life. Planetary systems, ecosystems, and even geology are now adapted in an Anthropocene. In this greater condition an individual and local can decline in place while still embracing this force of life. If you think you can decouple from this greater force you will see yourself consumed by competitive forces. Survival is precarious anytime but particularly if one is delusional of what can and can’t be. You adapt to what you have even if it does not seem right. Many of us feel a deep sadness for what humans have done. We struggle to find meaning in all this imbalance.
The meaning comes from embracing decline that is evident in honest science. This embrace includes giving into the power of those greater forces. You will have to give to Caesar what is his. Paradoxically this requires an embrace of less intelligence along with physical consumption. Chose the intelligence you pursue wisely. Limits apply to intelligence as they do to our physical habitation. Do this in a relative way that acknowledges a new human ecosystem of imbalance and decay. The relativity means balancing growth and decline. You will be building up into decline. We have been killing ourselves slowly through the destruction of the habitability of the planet. Eventually thresholds will be crossed and are being crossed. The planet has its own timeline above and beyond the web of life. This is at a different time scale but we are still part of it. An asteroid might hit in 10 years destroying habitability this means ultimately there is human acquiesce to the planet. Something we pretend we can transcend by the technocratic.
Wisdom of the moment in your local seems the best place to find meaning. It has been what humans have done most of their history. We have already lost our innocence of harmony but this does not mean we can’t make the journey back to what was once truly human taking with us the best of our modern experiences. We have learned many things through science that can assist us in this journey. Re-localize with meaning while inhabiting this globalized world. It essentially comes down to behavior. You are not going to tech your way out of this condition. Limits and diminishing returns are now an dominant force preventing traditional growth. Embrace less with more wisdom not the randomness of more intelligence with less wisdom.
Cloggie on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 12:55 am
“other reasons the HK US caused chaos will soon end…”
Liberty is not a very Chinese idea. The vast majority of the Chinese population is justifiable proud as hell of the enormous collective Chinese achievements and have a don’t-rock-the-boat mentality, while China is en route to become the world’s new #1.
The Hong Kong liberals are going to be crushed, if necessary.
elquardashianalameriki-akafmr on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 12:58 am
Davy on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 12:04 am
Above is supertard obv.
Sissyfuss on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 8:46 am
The math equation most generally perceived is 10 billion humans + a 2C rise in temperature = massive die-off. 2+2=4 every time.
Davy on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 9:30 am
Near term human extinction is a REAL Serious Possibility. Capitalism was great for us one percenter scumbags, but it was a REAL Bad idea for humanity and the planet Earth.
LMFAO!
Cloggie on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 10:28 am
IEA: in Europe in the late twenties, wind will be the largest source of power, overtaking coal, gas, nuclear.
https://twitter.com/IEA/status/1165273882569465856
But remember folks: wind will never work, because, you see, it is not DENSE enough.
LOL
Mindless juanpee trolling on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 10:32 am
Davy said Near term human extinction is a REAL Serious Possi…
Davy said Tulsi has what it takes to win it for us liberals….
ANAL REAPER said TRUMP AND DAVY CAN SUCK MY COCK
DavyTurd said @ DavyTurd Oh yeah. The Trump true believers saw h…
Davy AKA muhamadbinpedoalameriki-akafmr said I always speak the truth: Excluding my ID Theft an…
The Truth Shall Set You Free said Sad for you, DavyTurd, nobody reads your insane wo…
Davy aka elquardashianalameriki-akafmr said Looks like DavySkum has reinvented his retarded so…
The Truth Shall Set You Free said Funny, the only gnashing of teeth is with DavySkum…
elquardashianalameriki-akafmr said https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7388485/T…
elquardashianalameriki-akafmr said Davy on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 1:13 am above is supert…
elquardashianalameriki-akafmr said Davy on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 12:04 am Above is super…
Dredd on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 10:33 am
“He say one and one and one is three, put your arms around him you can feel his disease”
Come together – Lennon
Cloggie on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 10:35 am
Video: Tesla “driver” of self-driving car falls asleep behind steering wheel, probably survived:
https://www.spiegel.de/video/tesla-fahrer-schlaeft-hinterm-steuer-ein-video-99029237.html
Dumbo on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 12:01 pm
So if the wall was built yesterday, then will stand no longer than 3 days, got it.
Davy on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 2:08 pm
My family owns a Lear jet so when the shit hits the fan we will leave the rest of you to enjoy your shit-hole while the rich….I mean rest of us will fly to the destination of our choice.
Fuck the poor. Fuck all you dumbasses. Not my fault I was born a trust fund baby whose never had to work one single day in my life. Do you really think I would last more than one day with my personality in a work environment with other people?
Davy on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 2:12 pm
Why does everybody hate me (at least my socks like formerly retarded Paul me)?
Famlin on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 5:11 pm
It does not need 760 years.
If a company can make a robot that can
* Take clothes from dryer and iron it.
* Cook at least basic foods and serve coffee.
* Sleep in bed with person to make him/her happy.
Thats enough.
Every one will start buying it and live happily and wont have children.
If a cellphone costs $150 and a car costs $15,000; then this type of robot should cost only $2,000 at best and many in developed/developing world can afford it.
makati1 on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 5:28 pm
Famlin, reality is not your thing is it? LMAO
Jeff on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 5:50 pm
I think this equation should be “mixed” with Drake’s equation regarding Fermi paradox in order to have something more precise.
Moreover, how can you not consider the energy used to fuel civilisation is quite equivalent to civilisation itself aka mankind itself?
in the 70’s, Club of Rome predicted civilisation will disappear within this century, probably around 2050, their work is far more serious that this thread.
trolling juanpee on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 10:57 pm
ElQuardashianalameriki-akafmr said der, one thing after another. first thing first,…
Davy said Why does everybody hate me (at least my socks like…
Davy said I WANT MY MOMMY RIGHT NOW!!!!
Davy said My family owns a Lear jet so when the shit hits th…
elquardashianalameriki-akafmr on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 11:10 pm
man how i run a succcessful muzzie biz. i would buy this muzzie $3 without a thought.
imam supertard big muzzie beard is reporting that canada is giving Pamir Hakimzadah slap in the wrist.
i’d amputate hands and feet and throw him in supertard’s 10,000 acres. the best of whatever he produces will be personally picked by me and put on supertard table.
it’s only fair because amputation is their thing done to us
elquardashianalameriki-akafmr on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 11:14 pm
before i “reverted” to muzzie and adopted the name abu bakr al-ameriki aka fmr, i floated the idea of joint venture to hold amputated muzzies on the 10,000 acres and supertard flatly rejected my proposal because he is a lover of muzzies.
it costs him nothing, me only the cost of buy a muzzie and he gets fresh premium produce.
nope. despite being a supertard he has no business acumen
elquardashianalameriki-akafmr on Sat, 24th Aug 2019 11:19 pm
imam supertard glenn robert pbuh reported
On This Day…
Aug 25, 2017: Rakhine, Myanmar
Hindu villagers are rounded up and
slaughtered for refusing to convert: 53 Killed
it’s a big one
mindless juanpee trolling on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 12:13 am
juanpee, your sock has been outed. Go check into Douglas Gardens or go to the nearest shelter workshop to help people on your own level.
elquardashianalameriki-akafmr said imam supertard glenn robert pbuh reported On This…
elquardashianalameriki-akafmr said before i “reverted” to muzzie and adop…
elquardashianalameriki-akafmr said man how i run a succcessful muzzie biz. i would b…
Message to "former retarded paul" on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 12:17 am
elquardashianalameriki-akafmr
Hey self-described retarded freak, still sucking off of the taxpayers teat for your Social Security Disability checks? I suppose you copy the nonsense you write and submit it to the Social Security administration as proof of your mental disability.
You make me fucking sick and it burns my butt to know my tax dollars pay for your obnoxious mouth. I would forfeit a month’s wages just to meet you in the boxing ring.
Its human trash like you that has ruined America. You’re a grotesque parasitic worm or fluke and you add nothing back. Your “parents” must think they raised the worst possible loser the world has known.
Davy approves this message on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 12:20 am
DavyTurd is takes a sick mind unique to yourself to think this freakish shit up:
“before i “reverted” to muzzie and adopted the name abu bakr al-ameriki aka fmr, i floated the idea of joint venture to hold amputated muzzies on the 10,000 acres and supertard flatly rejected my proposal because he is a lover of muzzies.”
Davy approves this message on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 12:22 am
Forgot to include this creative writing:
“i’d amputate hands and feet and throw him in supertard’s 10,000 acres. the best of whatever he produces will be personally picked by me and put on supertard table.”
Davy on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 12:36 am
“If a company can make a robot that can* Take clothes from dryer and iron it.* Cook at least basic foods and serve coffee.* Sleep in bed with person to make him/her happy.Thats enough. Every one will start buying it and live happily and wont have children. If a cellphone costs $150 and a car costs $15,000; then this type of robot should cost only $2,000 at best and many in developed/developing world can afford it.”
Well robots will need to be maintained and serviced. They will have software issues. What happens then they break down?? Don’t try to tell me there will be robots to fix robots because that is another step up. We are now to the point where robots are generally mounted in place and do manufacturing. This is a great niche for some processes but extending that to people’s living arrangements is not valid in my book. If people become dependent on robots and they break down there will be serious issues for people not having necessities. I assume your robots will go to the store to buy food and grow food too…on and on. I see mankind going in the direction of less comforts in most areas with niche locations going higher tech but not sustainably. We are digitizing which is a different type of automation this is reaching a diminishing returns ceiling also. There are issues of instability and security. Consequences and trade offs are a bitch. Maybe we should just get back to good old hard work.
juanpee mental illness on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 12:39 am
juanpee this is not a place for mental illness demonstrations. You can say something intelligent can’t you? There are plenty of issues you could contribute to.
This is just stupidity:
Davy approves this message said Forgot to include this creative writing: “i’…
Davy approves this message said DavyTurd is takes a sick mind unique to yourself t…
Message to “former retarded paul” said elquardashianalameriki-akafmr Hey self-described r…
elquardashianalameriki-akafmr on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 12:57 am
Before I ‘reverted’ and became abu bakr al ameriki aka fmr I was a nobody AFDF. Three was some minor breakthrough but not significant. If the heat gets intense supertard wood call up imam supertard big muzzie beard and ban me from jihadwatch. Some in between I was treated with fantastic flying goat stories
But now I’m a superior muzzie monkey that allah created there’s is no good defense against me.
‘Lo you’re a superi iui r muzzie monkey allah has created you kill infidel and be killed to get 72 virgins’
elquardashianalameriki-akafmr on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 1:09 am
You can become a muzzie lover all you want superior muzzie monkey abu bakr al ameriki aka fmr will run circles around you.
‘You’re a superior muzzie 7th century allah has created. You take infidel women for sex slaves your right hand posseses’
Mindless Davy Trolling on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 10:03 am
Davy, this is not a place for mental illness demonstrations. You can say something intelligent can’t you? There are plenty of issues you could contribute to.
Mindless Davy Trolling on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 10:04 am
Davy, your sock has been outed. Go check into Douglas Gardens or go to the nearest shelter workshop to help people on your own level.
Sissyfuss on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 5:45 pm
China chomping at the bit to put down the protests that fly in the face of their collective and its occupants. At this point it seems that the revolutionaries don’t care, that they’re in it to the end. Hope that none of them are Muslims.
makati1 on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 6:10 pm
Sissyfuss, China could just let it burn itself out but they need to do something before the 70th anniversary of the Communist Party (PRC) on October 1st. Just like Trump has to do something positive before the final election rounds next Summer. The Chinese can get tough without troops. Emperor Don cannot do much but tweet bullshit.
HK citizens will not allow this to continue much longer as it is starting to hit them in the wallet, or so it seems to me.
As for the US, well, it is already in a recession. Let’s see if Trump can make it a depression before November 2020. We shall see.
Sissyfuss on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 6:18 pm
Mak, China can’t escape Limits to Growth. Financially they are better than the cleanest dirty shirt but the laundrymat is on fire. I prefer to be slow cooked by the CO2 rather than be seared by the radiation. Hell of choice, ain’t it.
makati1 on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 6:40 pm
Sissyfuss, since neither of us can do anything about either, all we can do is prep and hope for the best. The East is still rising as the West sinks. I prefer to be on the floating boat as long as it lasts. That is the main reason I left the US 11 years ago and never regretted it one moment.
“The economic power is moving from north to south and west to east; in other words to the developing countries. The new normal includes new growth centers and a multipolar global economic system with an increasing weight of emerging market players.”
https://www.dogusgrubu.com.tr/en/economic-power-is-moving-from-north-to-south-and-west-to-east
That comment was made in 2012. I have not seen evidence that it is not true, have you?
onlooker on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 7:24 pm
Do not need a math equation to predict our end. Not when humans are cursed with greed and ignorance and more than 7 billion of us exist fighting with each other and altering and depleting the Earth at a rapid rate.
Cloggie on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 9:57 pm
Real “Black Swan event” coming up in 2 months time:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7393617/PETER-OBORNE-No-10s-plan-shut-Parliament-end-chaos.html
“PETER OBORNE: I was wrong to think No10 would not contemplate ‘taking back control’ like this – I fear it will end in chaos”
It will soon become clear to the British people what it is they have voted for: political chaos and economic self-amputation. I don’t see how no-deal Brexit can be avoided, with a divided opposition and a Corbyn, who silently enjoys what is happening, because his calculation is that the coming disarray will catapult him into power. That remains to be seen. My preduction is that the British, or English rather, are stubbornly going to dig themselves in rather than admitting the mistake they made and putting themselves at the mercy of “the Great Satan” as a tasty prey:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Satan
BoJo wants to be the “next Churchill”, leading his “war cabinet” and once again will the English follow their elite into “war”. Not that I expect that the EU and UK will homb each other’s cities, but an atmosphere of mutual bitter hostility, will definately emergy.
This could pave the way in Europe to finally abandon the pro-Anglo-Zionist brain-software, pumped into our heads on a daily basis for decades by hegemonic Anglo media and become hard-core revisionist. Expect the Russians to play a central role in that process, because they know the exact truth and have archives to back it up. In 2009, before the Merkel disaster, they already gave a sneak preview of what is to be expected:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/5445161/Russia-accuses-Poland-of-starting-Second-World-War.html
“Russia accuses Poland of starting Second World War”
Russia will reveal the full sordid truth in return for a permanent place in Gorbachevs “European House”.
The split with England will be permanent, although a regime change there is very well possible, after the balkenization of the US. Expect a local populist anti-globalist “Lech Walesa”, like Tommy Robinson, to take over. He is one of the rare English who doesn’t have to vomit in dealing with Germans:
https://youtu.be/Y2ByPi2UPEY [1:16]
Robinson, who is currently is jail, is a regular guest speaker in Dresden.
makati1 on Sun, 25th Aug 2019 10:42 pm
Cloggie, not much that will happen to/in the UK will affect the rest of the world. Not much that will happen in the EU will either. It is already disintegrating, along with the US. Much of the EU and the ME is sliding East, along with the South.
Fun to watch the end of the West….from here.
Cloggie on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 1:52 am
“Cloggie, not much that will happen to/in the UK will affect the rest of the world.”
You would be wrong about that.
Trump and Brexit are the two opening-salvo’s for the upcoming break-up of the West. The consequences are majestic in scope:
1. It paves the way for the upcoming Paris-Berlin-Moscow confederation, an entity of 640 million, nuclear armed to the teeth, that will eclipse Anglosphere and swap roles with it. Earlier this week Macron spoke openly about it.
2. The split could embolden China to finally “make its move” and declare itself master of the SCS, Hong Kong and Taiwan. And if the Anglos would try to do something about it, their navies, a 20th century anachronism, will be dealt with in a couple of hours. Don’t take it from me, I might be an evil revengeful hollywood-natzi with an axe to grind, take it from your kiken owners:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-19/china-could-crush-some-u-s-military-assets-in-hours
If that really happens, you makati, could be locked away in a Chinese gulag, before you can say “Hitler”, just like the Japs did to Americans in 1942, the year of your birth. Pointing at all your sinophile posts at peakoil.com won’t do you any good. If you do indeed have a white skin, as you claim you have, its Laborcamp Time!
3. The US is on the verge of cw2, for racial reasons. If hundreds of thousands of US white guys are facing the general US mobilization for battle in East-Asia, they might come to the conclusion that they might as well risk an armed insurrection at home, rather than facing a certain death in Asia, side by side with “fellow” darkies.
You say “no consequences”.
I say “snowball-effect”.
togel 212 on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 3:12 am
nice info brother !
The Truth Shall Set You Free on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 6:15 am
Davy says, “This is just stupidity.”
Exactly since it originates with you. Funny thing is you are at odds with every poster EXCEPT for your sock, elquardashianalameriki-akafmr.
Never a word of criticism out of your big mouth despite comments about cutting limbs off of Muslims and other insanity.
You got caught dumbass.
Dredd on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 8:03 am
Peak Petro-Dollar (Economic War Of The Pacific – 7).
How will US dollar being replaced with Luan or EUro dollar change things?
Davy on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 8:34 am
“The Truth Shall Set You Free said Davy says, “This is just stupidity.”
Juanpee, all your games are exposed. Nobody cares about a mentally ill troll. Juanpee, People are interested in knowledge not soap operas. What a fruit loop. You are an emotional wreck. I have crushed you and this has you permanently triggered. Victory
Robert Inget on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 9:18 am
The Real Reason Oil Has Peaked
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Real-Reason-Why-US-Oil-Production-Has-Peaked.html
Dan Steffens
DAN STEFFENS
Dan Steffens is the President of Energy Prospectus Group (EPG), a networking organization based in Houston, Texas. He is a 1976 graduate of Tulsa University…
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The Real Reason Why US Oil Production Has Peaked
By Dan Steffens – Aug 25, 2019, 6:00 PM CDT
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Oil Production
One of the basic assumptions or “Paradigms” that is keeping a lid on the price of oil is the belief that U.S. oil production will continue going up year-after-year. This paradigm is second only to the fear that the tariff war between the U.S. and China will go on for years, causing a global recession. FEAR has caused oil prices to fall back into the mid-$50s, not supply / demand fundamentals. It is important that energy sector investors know what’s going on in the real world because $55 oil is not a sustainable price for the world’s most important commodity.
In the real world, upstream oil & gas companies are slashing drilling & completion budgets and the active rig count is falling week after week. Today we aren’t completing enough new wells to offset the accelerating decline rate of existing wells.
Raymond James recently estimated that over the last three years the U.S. decline rate for oil has doubled from 1.6 to 3.2 million barrels per day. The drilled but uncompleted well inventory (“DUC”) is back to normal, so the number of wells being drilled and the number of wells being completed is now about the same. We need over 12,000 new horizontal oil wells completed each year to hold production flat and the number of completed wells will need to go up each year.
Duncan Idaho on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 9:37 am
Well, we are not going to get more oil world wide in 2019. We are not at peak- that was Nov of 2018- we are 2 million barrels a day under that.
2020- 2021?
Maybe
Robert Inget on Mon, 26th Aug 2019 10:25 am
I believe Duncan, w/o steady $60+ WTI many many drillers will fold.
The Big Boys can endure $54- oil far longer as they have downstream, pipelines, interest heavy retail gasoline credit cards, real-estate, etc.
In a year Canada will be able to make more money selling bitumen to China than the US.
In a year Venezuela will be up and running with Russia and China setting prices.
Anyway, as the author points out with/out constant drilling a steady stream of sucker investors, we poop out long before 2021.
The thing to remember. Cheap oil may be bolstering US economy but it has also killed off ten of thousands of good paying jobs like coal mining. Oil and pipeline companies are, like most industry, moving toward automation.
One thing is certain, employment in all FF energy certainly has peaked.