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What would you do with: Absolute power?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 00:52:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
And die-off means the death rate will exceed the birth rate.



Could that possibly portend a slow burn?


It could. Depends upon the rate of decline of the support system of our phantom carrying capacity. Mainly oil and natural gas.

Or, it may be triggered by an economic collapse.

Or, global climate change.

Currently, ever second 6 people are born while 3 people die.

Or, 500,000 births per day versus 250,000 deaths.

Will we notice when it reverses?

Depends on where it is most focused,

Right now, we don't notice the 25,000/day that just flat starve to death.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 00:56:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('HEADER_RACK', ' ') Whats not to understand? If you need a certain amount of something to be able to reach all the four basic necessities of life you are dead. 3 out of 4 just don't cut it.


Well. many of my detractors claim it isn't any rigid "law" that we must abide by.

Of course, when asked to back it up, they can't.

Classic denial.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby HEADER_RACK » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 01:03:58

It's like a chain. The further away from self suatainablity a person is the more links we have to add to the chain. Those links can be anything but break one and it's over.
For example (lets use water)If you live in the desert there is hardly any water. So we need pumps to get us our water. Pumps is now a link in the chain. Pumps run on electricity so we add the electricity link to the chain. Piping to run the water so piping becomes a link in that chain. So forth and so on.
If any one of those links break we are cut off from one of our four basic survival necessities. Therefore each link is a necessity to live.
In todays world we have ALOT of links connecting us to our basics for life.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby eric_b » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 02:50:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')ll I'm saying is that there may be forms of society and forms of food production that are sustainable for a population of 6.5 billion.


Show me any other form of agriculture other than totalitarian that could produce the food to support 6.7 billion people an counting.



I agree with Monte on this one. What's the figure? - at least half of all the photosynthetic (land based) biomass goes, directly or indirectly, to feed the swelling human population. Perhaps it's closer to 70% at this point.

However you should give Tony some slack, after all he lives in the still relatively pristine southern hemisphere. In the still rather fresh and untrampled land of NZ (it will not be this way for long). It's perhaps understandable that he might have some illusions about the sustainability of the current H. Dumbian population. Get him on a jet to Shanghai.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 03:56:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')ony, you are grasping at straws and you know it. No studies exist that say it can.

What else would bio-intensive methods kill to increase produciton?
I'm not grasping at straws. Many people have tried these methods and can attest to their effectiveness. Ecology Action have spent 30 years or more refining the methods. Remember that I have never said that we will transition smoothly to any kind of sustainability, with 6.5 billion people. I've only stated that I think it is theoretically possible to do so. Bio-intensive methods do not kill anything; they build soil life.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e have unique behavioural traits also. They have enabled us to figure out alternative ways to obtain food.
Yes, all unsustainable. Totaliatarian agriculture kills everything but human food.
I don't know why you choose to add adjectives to agriculture as though it can be attached to all forms of food production. Adding adjectives does not prove that small scale bio-intensive is unsustainable.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 03:58:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')s people just seem to refuse to grasp, carrying capacity isn't about just feeding people.
I certainly haven't refused to grasp that. You are exactly right.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 04:01:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eric_b', 'G')et him on a jet to Shanghai.
That would not prove anything. As a total globe, I believe it could sustain 6.5 billion people. They may not all live where they live now. They may not all have the same standard of living as now (some will have higher). But sustainability is theoretically possible, in my view, even though I know it will never happen (with current populations and societies).
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 10:32:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') don't know why you choose to add adjectives to agriculture as though it can be attached to all forms of food production. Adding adjectives does not prove that small scale bio-intensive is unsustainable.


I get that adjective from Daniel Quinn in the Story of B. If bio-intensive practices limited competition and conventional agriculture does not, there is no way it can compete.

The latter eliminates all competitors for the food produced, thus maximizing production.

I own a farm. I've watched farming both ways.

You cannot compete with a kill everything approach.

I never said that bio-intensive was not sustianble, just that it could not equal the yields of conventional, industrial, totalitarian agriculture and feed 6.7 billion people.

Shows us studies to refute this.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 10:36:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eric_b', 'G')et him on a jet to Shanghai.
That would not prove anything. As a total globe, I believe it could sustain 6.5 billion people. They may not all live where they live now. They may not all have the same standard of living as now (some will have higher). But sustainability is theoretically possible, in my view, even though I know it will never happen (with current populations and societies).


Show us studies to support this. Unless you can, it is just wishful thinking and flies in the face of coventional wisdom and solid science.

It also smacks of ..."that just can't be right, they must have forgot something in those studies that say otherwise."

It's called denial.

Tony, you and I usually are on the same page, but we aren't even close on this one.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 10:49:55

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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Tue 24 Jul 2007, 17:22:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')More personal attacks.

Is that the best you got?

I am no more trying to convince people we are doomed than the man in the moon. Dismantling an unsustainable mindset and paradigm is the key to turning this around.
No, it's not personal attacks. If I said you dress funny and your mom wears army boots, that would be a personal attack. But when you say that you are not a doomer but billions of people are going to die because of overshoot I just have to wonder if you are engaged in semantic games. You don't like the word 'doomer' because it sounds too fringy. You speak of the 'key to turn this around.' Presumably you mean after 4 to 5 billion people are dead. I'm not afraid of the word 'doomer' because I'm not under the illusion that I have some personal credibility to preserve. What will happen will happen. Face it, Monte, however you try to preserve some objective credibility, it doesn't matter, you are still saying things that no one will believe until it happens.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby azreal60 » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 03:41:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen are you going to get off this kick of believing crap because someone gave it a catchy name - totalitarian agriculture, jeez.


Have you read the "crap" that your so blissfully ignorant about, or did you just figure it can't be right, cause it's not right? I mean, I haven't seen anything other than you saying so to indicate that it isn't true.

Oh, and I read your link. It doesn't give any of the parameters it used to apply to calculate that figure. It just states it and expects you to trust them. Frankly I don't. I seem to recall the biosphere projects having alot of problems staying afloat. Didn't they end up having to truck in their own oxygen due to low oxygen level's in the habitat? I'm not sure I'm going to trust this as a usable comparison.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 04:19:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')ou cannot compete with a kill everything approach.

I never said that bio-intensive was not sustianble, just that it could not equal the yields of conventional, industrial, totalitarian agriculture and feed 6.7 billion people.

Shows us studies to refute this.
Hawkcreek gives one reference.

A seminar at Cornell, a couple of years ago had this to say:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne small scale agricultural system, GROW BIOINTENSIVE, can produce green revolution type yields in small areas (< 0.1 ha) using only locally-available resources.
The 6th edition of How to Grow More Vegetables ... has this to say:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ur initial research indicates that GROW BIOINTENSIVE® can produce an average of 2 to 6 times more vegetables per acre than the amount grown by farmers using mechanized and chemical agricultural techniques. The method also appears to use 33% to 12% of the water, 50% to zero purchased nitrogen fertilizer and 1% the energy consumed by commercial agriculture per pound of vegetable grown.
The biointensive methods has been used by Ecology Action for over 30 years. [I've since learned that some purchased fertilizer may be needed in the initial stages but that would not be a problem in an organized and timely transition.]

Finally, here is an abstract from a research article:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')odel estimates indicate that organic methods could produce enough food on a global per capita basis to sustain the current human population, and potentially an even larger population, without increasing the agricultural land base. We also evaluated the amount of nitrogen potentially available from fixation by leguminous cover crops used as fertilizer. Data from temperate and tropical agroecosystems suggest that leguminous cover crops could fix enough nitrogen to replace the amount of synthetic fertilizer currently in use.

I feel that there is certainly the possibility to grow food for the current world population, in a sustainable way. I note that you don't necessarily dispute that such methods are sustainable, so the only sticking point is the yields.

Note that I still don't believe that a smooth transition is at all likely, so this is all rather moot, but could give hope to those preparing in a small way.

If far less water is used, in biointensive methods, and there is less environmental impact, then that leaves shelter. I haven't looked at that too much but I see a redistribution of the world population as a prerequisite for world sustainability, so we need to consider world resources to provide shelter (and heating) for the world's population. Such global timely action will not happen.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 11:43:03

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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 15:17:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')how us studies to support this. Unless you can, it is just wishful thinking and flies in the face of coventional wisdom and solid science.

It also smacks of ..."that just can't be right, they must have forgot something in those studies that say otherwise."

It's called denial.

Tony, you and I usually are on the same page, but we aren't even close on this one.
Other recent posts point to studies. I haven't just dreamed this up and fully believed as you do, until a few months ago. However, I think we're still on the same page, in practical terms. Unless most of the world's governments accept our problems and the need for dramatic change, it is rather pointless to have the capability to feed the world, post peak. But it's nice to know that those left will be able to build sustainable communities, if they choose to do so.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 16:32:58

It would be nice, Monte, if you admitted that I am right about this. You and all the others who say we need to take action now are whistling past the graveyard. It's pretty obvious that nothing will be done. We're going off the cliff, end of story.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 18:16:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', 'T')here seem to be lots of studies to show that bio-intensive agriculture is more efficient and productive than conventional agriculture.
Here is one:
Ag Study

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he people in Biosphere II in Arizona have been using techniques based on those outlined by Ecology Action: they raised 80 percent of their food for two years within a "closed system." Their experience demonstrates that a complete year's diet for one person can be raised on the equivalent of 3,403 square feet!

This is an improvement over traditional Chinese practices, which required 5,000 to 7,200 square feet. In contrast, it takes commercial agriculture 22,000 to 42,000 square feet to grow all the food for one person for one year, while bringing in large inputs from other areas. At the same time, commercial agricultural practices are causing the loss of approximately six pounds of soil for each pound of food produced.


I've read of many others that did this outside of the closed system mentioned in this article.


That the best you can come up with? LOL! This is the eptiome of a cherry-picked link. Google a little more readers.

Biosphere II was a disaster. This was in a closed bubble and not the fields of the earth.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or the humans, Biosphere quickly became a desperate exercise in fighting off starvation. The eight members, split into two factions of four -- which to this day do not talk to each other -- were reduced to hording and counting peanuts. Biosphere ended as an almost comical failure.

By the end of the experiment, scientists concluded, "No one yet knows how to engineer systems that provide humans with the life-supporting services that natural ecosystems (read God) produce for free" (J. Cohen and D. Tilman, "Biosphere 2 and Biodiversity: The Lessons So Far," Science, November 15, 1996).


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen are you going to get off this kick of believing crap because someone gave it a catchy name - totalitarian agriculture, jeez


I am data driven and first hand knowledge driven. I own 212 acres of working farm in Missouri. I farmed it with my grandfather for years. I have a large education in biology/ecology.

No agricultural regime I know of can compete with total annihilation of all competitors for the food grown. That is what we practise; totaliatarian agriculture. Everything must die except the human food.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 18:19:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'F')ace it, Monte, however you try to preserve some objective credibility, it doesn't matter, you are still saying things that no one will believe until it happens.


Ignorance of basic biology abounds. Our illiteracy with regards to energy, biology and basic science will be our undoing.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 18:36:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', ' ')The whole idea of healthy and productive agriculture is to not kill off all of the competing species. And bio-intensive agriculuture has been shown to have very high yields without the "totalitarian" approach.


Exactly. But if you practice "limited competition" it means some of your competitors get some of the food.

Organic farming is much more sustainable and over time will exceed the yields of conventional farming as that method declines in productivity due to topsoil loss, etc.

But it cannot compete with it on a yields per acre basis without removing more of the crop's competitors or infusing more energy into the system. Today's organic production numbers are subsidized by fossil fuel provided manure and other external factors not added to the system's analysis.

What else would you deny access to the calories being grown to increase the net yield?

Or how would you increase the yield to allow more or the competitors to eat it?

This is basic math and system thermodynamics.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 25 Jul 2007, 18:51:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'I')t would be nice, Monte, if you admitted that I am right about this. You and all the others who say we need to take action now are whistling past the graveyard. It's pretty obvious that nothing will be done. We're going off the cliff, end of story.


If I had given up in the face of odds 30 some years ago, all of the gains since then would be wished for now.

Think of how bad it would be if we had not fought for cleaner air and water?
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