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Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby Baldwin » Thu 08 Mar 2007, 20:13:25

Let's assume that post-peak, the agricultural lifestyle is the main way of life in the world. I wanted to explore some possible roles besides the stupidly obvious one (farmer).

Priest/minister- I expect a world where life is harder to start to "find God" again. In our world, material goods and advanced science have replaced God. Also, after we lose our psychiatrists, zanex (and our other feel good drugs), and such, priests will become the main source for counseling and overall mental well-being.

Doctor/surgeon- Having a doctor, particularaly one who can do surgery, will be a major boon to the survival of your community. The doctor will probably be looked after very well, receiving choice food and housing. Even though the training of doctors in America is little more than a glorified sleep deprivation exercise, we still have a few good doctors.

Herbalist- When Merck goes down the tubes, having one of these fellows will make your doctor much more effective by his knowledge of curative plants and salves. If he knows how to make penicillin, that will be a remarkable boost to the standard of living.

Engineer- Can you say "Reinvent the Steam Engine"? If you have a few engineers, your little farming society might get into the 1800's so to speak. You'll have the potential for steam engines, roads, running water, and maybe even electricity.

Musicians- While superficially frivolous, someone with an instrument can cheer up gloomy townspeople during a bad winter or low harvest.

These are just a few I could think of quickly. Feel free to add and of course, comment. If you have a good role that I forgot, I will add it here.

I am also pondering if I should include a scholar. Having a villager with the works of Dumas, Dante, SHakespeare, the Bible etc would be an asset.
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby dinopello » Thu 08 Mar 2007, 20:17:33

A good cook.
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby Uninspired123 » Thu 08 Mar 2007, 20:36:35

I think you've been reading too many doomer books.

If the decline ends up being slow, under maybe 4%, i don't see why we can't be relocated and transformed. Of course there will be pain, but we're not gonna go back to the 1700s.
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby Baldwin » Thu 08 Mar 2007, 21:00:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Uninspired123', 'I') think you've been reading too many doomer books.

If the decline ends up being slow, under maybe 4%, i don't see why we can't be relocated and transformed. Of course there will be pain, but we're not gonna go back to the 1700s.


Then in what year do you put wood stoves, pack animals, and such in?

Where are all the business majors and fitness instructors going? We graduate so many useless people in a society that will ahve to downsize. Also, we'll need to reduce the population.
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby Aaron » Thu 08 Mar 2007, 21:08:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Uninspired123', 'I') think you've been reading too many doomer books.

If the decline ends up being slow, under maybe 4%, i don't see why we can't be relocated and transformed. Of course there will be pain, but we're not gonna go back to the 1700s.


Spoken like a true American.

Guy... most of your fellow humans live pretty close to the 1700's standard today. (Many much worse)

The rich will still exist of course... although that will be redefined too. Peak Oil means an expanded poverty footprint for mankind. More of you who "have" today... won't tomorrow.

A whole bunch more.

And you will be reduced to a poverty which is all but incomprehensible to modern Western sensibilities.

4%?

We wish...
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby Uninspired123 » Thu 08 Mar 2007, 21:24:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baldwin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Uninspired123', 'I') think you've been reading too many doomer books.

If the decline ends up being slow, under maybe 4%, i don't see why we can't be relocated and transformed. Of course there will be pain, but we're not gonna go back to the 1700s.


Then in what year do you put wood stoves, pack animals, and such in?

Where are all the business majors and fitness instructors going? We graduate so many useless people in a society that will ahve to downsize. Also, we'll need to reduce the population.


I just didn't take much stock into your original post when you mentioned "herbalists" and " musicians" as necessary people. If they are necessary, then surely business people and fitness instructors are just as necessary. The business majors and fitness instructors will go whereever they have to to make money, if that means a career change then they will do it. I know it takes energy to do a career change, but is it then impossible to change careers even in a downsizing economy? I really don't think so.
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby Uninspired123 » Thu 08 Mar 2007, 21:32:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Uninspired123', 'I') think you've been reading too many doomer books.

If the decline ends up being slow, under maybe 4%, i don't see why we can't be relocated and transformed. Of course there will be pain, but we're not gonna go back to the 1700s.


Spoken like a true American.

Guy... most of your fellow humans live pretty close to the 1700's standard today. (Many much worse)

The rich will still exist of course... although that will be redefined too. Peak Oil means an expanded poverty footprint for mankind. More of you who "have" today... won't tomorrow.

A whole bunch more.

And you will be reduced to a poverty which is all but incomprehensible to modern Western sensibilities.

4%?

We wish...


Why not 4%? Even though larger fields seem to be declining at high rates, the world has peaked and is dropping by less than those high rates.

And your point about people living in poverty now, well no shit. Of course people live in poverty now, why wouldn't I know that? I'm talking about people in North America and specifically America, which affects me. I never said we wouldn't all be poorer, that's a given because there is less energy to go around to fuel all the things we want to do, but can't. I'm still saying we are going to be forced to downsize for a long time coming but there's no reason that it needs to be a crash and that fuel can't be prioritizied to shifting downwards.

You might say, "What will all those people do whose jobs you need to cut?" Good question, I have no idea. But I do think useful people like engineers, scientists, and doctors will become more valued in a post peak society where there is little fluff and no room for frivolous jobs. I myself am going to make myself as valuable as possible and have some real knowledge the best I can. As long as there is a rich class there are people who are going to cater to the rich class and I'm going to make sure I'm one of the people that does cater to them with knowledge I might have.

And you're guessing when you say we will be reduced to complete and total poverty. You just can't say it with certainty. The decline could be slower than possible on account of worldwide fear and furious drilling for a long time out. You never know.
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby Ponce » Thu 08 Mar 2007, 21:37:42

Baldwin, you are forgetting the most important one "the warrior class"...... it will very important to have a good security in your community in order to have peace.

My VA Dr. and his wife who is a trauma nurse in the army (a Major) will be moving in with me WTSHTF...... he will be very important not only to the community but also for me in order to trade his (and hers) services for food.

As time goes by all of you will learn more about me but for now lets say that I can survive for the next 20 years with no outside help.

"If you don't hold it, you don't own it"... Ponce

"To be ready is not"...Ponce
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 08 Mar 2007, 22:29:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Uninspired123', ' ') I'm talking about people in North America and specifically America, which affects me.


Oh, so peak oil is only an American problem?

I'll let Aaron take apart the rest of your post.
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 08 Mar 2007, 22:33:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Uninspired123', ' ')I know it takes energy to do a career change, but is it then impossible to change careers even in a downsizing economy? I really don't think so.


If you are at the front of the line or one of the best, not impossible.

Otherwise, not so much.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby skyemoor » Thu 08 Mar 2007, 23:06:22

Bicycle repairperson.
http://www.carfree.com
http://ecoplan.org/carshare/cs_index.htm
http://www.velomobile.de/GB/Advantages/advantages.html

Chance favors the prepared mind. -- Louis Pasteur

He that lives upon hope will die fasting. --Benjamin Franklin
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby Baldwin » Thu 08 Mar 2007, 23:10:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ponce', 'B')aldwin, you are forgetting the most important one "the warrior class"...... it will very important to have a good security in your community in order to have peace.

My VA Dr. and his wife who is a trauma nurse in the army (a Major) will be moving in with me WTSHTF...... he will be very important not only to the community but also for me in order to trade his (and hers) services for food.

As time goes by all of you will learn more about me but for now lets say that I can survive for the next 20 years with no outside help.

"If you don't hold it, you don't own it"... Ponce

"To be ready is not"...Ponce


I actually didn't forget warriors. I thought of putting it down, but I figured that in a time of crisis, the farmers would become a town militia of sorts.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') just didn't take much stock into your original post when you mentioned "herbalists" and " musicians" as necessary people. If they are necessary, then surely business people and fitness instructors are just as necessary. The business majors and fitness instructors will go whereever they have to to make money, if that means a career change then they will do it. I know it takes energy to do a career change, but is it then impossible to change careers even in a downsizing economy? I really don't think so.


Exactly what can a businessman trained to push papers at Deutschebank or HSBC know about an agrarian lifestyle? There is a bit more to farming then "plant seeds, water, pick, and eat".

Can anyone else see the value of an herbalist? It should be fairly lucid, since before CVS, that elderly lady down the lane was your pharmacist. She knew how to ID, pick, and prepare herbs for cuts, fevers, stomach trouble, and even abortions.

You neglect the value of musicians. ALl people need some scant form of entertainment. A flutist at Christmas dinner may be a significant morale booster.
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby MattSavinar » Fri 09 Mar 2007, 00:08:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baldwin', '
')
. . . if you have a good role that I forgot, I will add it here.



Blackwater contractor.
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby Uninspired123 » Fri 09 Mar 2007, 00:42:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Uninspired123', ' ') I'm talking about people in North America and specifically America, which affects me.


Oh, so peak oil is only an American problem?

I'll let Aaron take apart the rest of your post.


Well in terms of how it affects me yes, it's an American problem. Just like how a Canadian should be worried how peak oil will affect him or her with respect to Canada. On a global scale, of course peak oil is the world's problem,but in terms of daily shipments, inventories, and supply lines, it's a local problem in my eyes.
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby Uninspired123 » Fri 09 Mar 2007, 00:48:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Uninspired123', ' ') I'm talking about people in North America and specifically America, which affects me.

I'll let Aaron take apart the rest of your post.


As for this in your post, I've been reading your opinions for months now Monte. I've been e-stalking you for a while and I know exactly where you stand and what you're going to say. You're going to say it takes energy to create new jobs, it takes energy to become more fuel efficient, money doesn't create energy, etc etc. I know, I've heard it.

What I dont get from you is your contention that we can NEVER equilibriate. Am I correct in that understanding?
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby Uninspired123 » Fri 09 Mar 2007, 00:55:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baldwin', '
')Exactly what can a businessman trained to push papers at Deutschebank or HSBC know about an agrarian lifestyle? There is a bit more to farming then "plant seeds, water, pick, and eat".

Can anyone else see the value of an herbalist? It should be fairly lucid, since before CVS, that elderly lady down the lane was your pharmacist. She knew how to ID, pick, and prepare herbs for cuts, fevers, stomach trouble, and even abortions.

You neglect the value of musicians. ALl people need some scant form of entertainment. A flutist at Christmas dinner may be a significant morale booster.


You think someone who is smart and has learned how to handle business effectively can't learn in a short time frame what it takes to be a farmer? I don't buy that. He will have difficulty in finding land for himself or obtaining money to fund anything he wants to do but there's no way, like you're suggesting, he can't learn how to farm.

Herbalists, that's gotta be a joke. THey've fallen by the wayside because most herbal cures are a total crock of shit. Anyone with any sort of basic understanding of physiology or biochemistry knows this. Pharmaceuticals work because they are based on sound science and peer reviewed work. Herbal medicine is mostly hearsay and plagued with nothing but anecdotal reports.

As for musicians, in a hard crash, like you seem to think, the last person you need is a musician. Seems totally worthless in a society lacking energy to waste on music. You're thinking 20th and previous centuries where there was energy that could be put towards entertainment. I'm pretty sure entertainment will be first on the chopping block in a shortage.
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby seven » Fri 09 Mar 2007, 01:06:29

doomer agrarian/collapse scenario:

some of these would do well being local, some could survive by traveling around to different areas-

gunsmith/specialist in constructing/repairing/maintaining weaponry
metal worker/blacksmith
vet for working/food animals
animal trainer for working, riding and guard animals
self-defense and community defense trainers
weaponry use/construction trainers
farming, gardening, soil, security, water, building, simple medical, animal husbandry, etc. consultants
trackers - useful for hunting and other needs

midwife
shoemaker
leather production
spinners and weavers for making cloth
sewing specialists
boat builders; particularly sail and row boats; maybe paddleboats
for use with coal
windmill builders/experts
candle and soap makers
moonshiners
seed savers/sellers of various plants; both medicinal and food
new monks - keepers of knowledge/books

pony express courier for mail, etc. - remember The Postman movie? ;)
homing pigeon trainer/keeper
falconer

*Sorry, but herbal medicine is not useless - many modern rx cures are plant derivatives; they are simply hyped-up versions....although it is true that homemade herbals are usually less strong - which also makes them less dangerous. Aspirin was originally produced from willow bark. Willow bark was used for many hundreds of years for its fever-reducing and inflammation reducing properties, before anyone 'scientifically' discovered it and made pills out of it. Moldy bread was the basis for penicillin....two of the most crucial medicines we have today. Useless? Very funny. Modern rx tends to ignore any med that it cannot patent; and has a strong, obvious interest in discouraging and ridiculing natural medicine.
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 09 Mar 2007, 01:27:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Uninspired123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Uninspired123', ' ') I'm talking about people in North America and specifically America, which affects me.


Oh, so peak oil is only an American problem?

I'll let Aaron take apart the rest of your post.


Well in terms of how it affects me yes, it's an American problem.


In terms of how it will affect you, it is a global problem.

Get used to that notion.
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 09 Mar 2007, 01:33:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Uninspired123', ' ')What I dont get from you is your contention that we can NEVER equilibriate. Am I correct in that understanding?


No, you are not correct. Guess you haven't read as much of my writings as you claim.

But, under our current paradigm, no, population growth alone will undo any and all efficiency gains or conservation measures. There is no basket of alternative energies that will replace fossil fuels on the scale and in the manner we use them. As Kunstler says, " We will have to make other arrangements."

We must powerdown, restrict per capita energy consumption and reduce the existing population to a smaller number, to have any chance whatsoever of a sustainable balance with nature and energy resources.
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Re: Roles in an agrarian post-peak society...

Unread postby Uninspired123 » Fri 09 Mar 2007, 02:00:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Uninspired123', ' ')What I dont get from you is your contention that we can NEVER equilibriate. Am I correct in that understanding?


No, you are not correct. Guess you haven't read as much of my writings as you claim.

But, under our current paradigm, no, population growth alone will undo any and all efficiency gains or conservation measures. There is no basket of alternative energies that will replace fossil fuels on the scale and in the manner we use them. As Kunstler says, " We will have to make other arrangements."

We must powerdown, restrict per capita energy consumption and reduce the existing population to a smaller number, to have any chance whatsoever of a sustainable balance with nature and energy resources.

No you're misunderstanding, you're still thinking in our current values and with our current system in mind. I'm asking can we equilibriate in another different system that has different values than the one we have currently set up? We can never equilibriate in this system. I'm asking if you have any ideas for a new economic system that is value based, not growth or product based. What kind of currency does it have? Is it based on barter? What does it take to set up?

I understand in the short term we have to work within the system we have, but I question whether people will stick to this system if it is proven without a doubt that it's on its way down forever.
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