by lawnchair » Tue 24 Feb 2009, 19:18:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crude_intentions', 'I') don't think we can blame Wallstreets fall all on on Mr. Li, after all the answer to any equation depends entirely upon what figures are plugged into it.
More than that, his equations weren't entirely wrong. Wrong, of course, in the sense that 500 people betting on red at the roulette wheel doesn't mean anyone has really figured out that red is more likely (fully rational actors wouldn't be at the table at the first place, would they). But, more critically:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ankers securitizing mortgages knew that their models were highly sensitive to house-price appreciation. If it ever turned negative on a national scale, a lot of bonds that had been rated triple-A, or risk-free, by copula-powered computer models would blow up.
The economist's growth fallacy. The idea that, if we keep building houses, and keep giving people money, there will be more people to occupy them, at ever-higher prices. Cargo cult behavior. It turns out that we can, easily, knock together taupe sheetrock dungheaps much, much faster than we need them.