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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Wall Street Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Wall Street’s Great Heist of 2008

Unread postby Revi » Wed 05 Nov 2008, 20:41:03

Cramer wants to bail out the big three now. He says that they are too big to fail.

Why would we even want to get into that?

Car culture is finished.

Why bail out a doomed industry?

Take that money and help start up an electric car company or two.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Washington Paralysis Wall Street Shakes

Unread postby deMolay » Sat 22 Nov 2008, 01:21:37

She's all over but the crying. The ship is to big to turn from the iceberg in time. No matter how the Captain screamed down to the engine room to reverse the engines. http://www.cnbc.com/id/27840804
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Re: Washington Paralysis Wall Street Shakes

Unread postby cipi604 » Sat 22 Nov 2008, 13:20:05

the higher you go, the harder you fall
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Re: Washington Paralysis Wall Street Shakes

Unread postby nobodypanic » Sat 22 Nov 2008, 16:00:41

we already hit the iceberg; this is about [s]damage control[/s] who gets to lifeboats first.
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The Pirates of Wall Street

Unread postby seldom_seen » Mon 24 Nov 2008, 15:32:53

The Pirates who have hijacked a Saudi tanker are currently demanding $15 million ransom for the safe return of the crew, ship and cargo. Let's compare this to the Pirates of Wall Street.

According to Bloomberg:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government is prepared to provide more than $7.76 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers after guaranteeing $306 billion of Citigroup Inc. debt yesterday. The pledges, amounting to half the value of everything produced in the nation last year, are intended to rescue the financial system after the credit markets seized up 15 months ago.

When it is all said and done it will probably be much more than this amount, and this doesn't include the trillions lost in the market as hedge funds and big banks sink people's 401ks and pension funds.

Let's be conservative and say that Wall Street has, or will shortly make off with 7 trillion dollars since this whole thing began. That equates to the successful hijacking and ransoming of 466 fully laden oil tankers.

Clearly the Somalis are in the wrong business.
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Re: The Pirates of Wall Street

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 24 Nov 2008, 15:49:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'T')he Pirates who have hijacked a Saudi tanker are currently demanding $15 million ransom for the safe return of the crew, ship and cargo. Let's compare this to the Pirates of Wall Street.
According to Bloomberg: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government is prepared to provide more than $7.76 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers after guaranteeing $306 billion of Citigroup Inc. debt yesterday. The pledges, amounting to half the value of everything produced in the nation last year, are intended to rescue the financial system after the credit markets seized up 15 months ago.
When it is all said and done it will probably be much more than this amount, and this doesn't include the trillions lost in the market as hedge funds and big banks sink people's 401ks and pension funds. Let's be conservative and say that Wall Street has, or will shortly make off with 7 trillion dollars since this whole thing began. That equates to the successful hijacking and ransoming of 466 fully laden oil tankers. Clearly the Somalis are in the wrong business.

Check your math. When I divide $7,760,000,000,000 by $15,000,000, I come up with 517,333.33 Hijacked Oil Tankers. I did this twice, I think I punched in the right number of zeros both times.
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Re: The Pirates of Wall Street

Unread postby seldom_seen » Mon 24 Nov 2008, 16:14:34

Hehe...thanks RE. I think I computed it correctly the first time but thought I added too many zeros when I saw the result!
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Re: The Pirates of Wall Street

Unread postby americandream » Mon 24 Nov 2008, 17:59:07

7 trillion is nothing. Wait till the next bailout which will be a truly global one and hard on the heels of fast dwindling resources.

These animals are only just beginning. When they have finished with the working taxpayers of this world, revolution (and I mean a bloodbath) will arise spontaneously because by then,we will KNOW that we were conned all along as we survey the wreck of a planet they have left us with.
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Re: The Pirates of Wall Street

Unread postby Zardoz » Mon 24 Nov 2008, 18:09:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '.')..revolution (and I mean a bloodbath) will arise spontaneously...

Maybe. Perhaps not if we're still maintaining some sort of modern comfort levels in our daily lives. If the power stays on, and the hot water is still there, and the vast majority of us are still working, it probably won't happen.

Modern life has domesticated us all. We'll stay docile if things are reasonably comfortable.
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Re: The Pirates of Wall Street

Unread postby Novus » Mon 24 Nov 2008, 18:12:37

More like the Parasites of Wall Street. The Parasite is now threatening to kill the host by sucking so much blood out of the system major organ failure is about to occur. Citi-group which had already conned its way to $25 billion of bailout money conned another $20 billion out of us with out of peep of out rage. The auto-industry which actually produces a real product is about to go under. Hello!!! This is madness. Incoming 20% unemployment all so the wall street con men can keep lying and sucking blood.
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Re: The Pirates of Wall Street

Unread postby billg » Mon 24 Nov 2008, 18:14:41

Max Keiser blasts CITI bailout and Obama's new economic team!

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum ... 672272/pg1
"It is no measure of health to be deemed sane in an insane society" J. Krishnamurti

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Re: The Pirates of Wall Street

Unread postby Zardoz » Mon 24 Nov 2008, 18:24:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('billg', 'M')ax Keiser blasts CITI bailout and Obama's new economic team!

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum ... 672272/pg1

Wait a minute. Time out.

You expect us to assign any credibility to this guy and anything he has to say?
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Re: The Pirates of Wall Street

Unread postby billg » Mon 24 Nov 2008, 19:13:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('billg', 'M')ax Keiser blasts CITI bailout and Obama's new economic team! http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum ... 672272/pg1

Wait a minute. Time out. You expect us to assign any credibility to this guy and anything he has to say?

Why not?
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Blue Dogs Say Helping Wall Street Is a Genuine National Emer

Unread postby mintdollar » Fri 13 Feb 2009, 23:21:53

Chris Hayes of The Nation catches the House's leading Blue Dog Democrat, Jim Cooper, going on record saying that they see helping Wall Street as a "genuine national emergency," but helping the rest of the economy isn't. I shit you not:

When I spoke to Cooper the week after the vote, he defended it as counterintuitively pro-Obama, cast against "certain Congressional old habits and bad practices. A lot of our colleagues have not gotten the change message." He expressed frustration with the speed of the process, as well as the fact that the leadership had forgone the normal committee mark-ups, saying that members were "just told how to vote."
http://guns-and-butter.blogspot.com/200 ... et-is.html
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Reason: Merged with THE Wall Street Thread.
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The Chinaman Who Killed Wall Street

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 24 Feb 2009, 16:40:40

Wired

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or five years, Li's formula, known as a Gaussian copula function, looked like an unambiguously positive breakthrough, a piece of financial technology that allowed hugely complex risks to be modeled with more ease and accuracy than ever before. With his brilliant spark of mathematical legerdemain, Li made it possible for traders to sell vast quantities of new securities, expanding financial markets to unimaginable levels.

His method was adopted by everybody from bond investors and Wall Street banks to ratings agencies and regulators. And it became so deeply entrenched—and was making people so much money—that warnings about its limitations were largely ignored.

Then the model fell apart. Cracks started appearing early on, when financial markets began behaving in ways that users of Li's formula hadn't expected. The cracks became full-fledged canyons in 2008—when ruptures in the financial system's foundation swallowed up trillions of dollars and put the survival of the global banking system in serious peril.


Great writing and substance over at Wired. I think it's my favorite place to read stuff.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Thu 23 Apr 2009, 21:52:42, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with THE Wall Street Thread.
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Re: The Chinaman Who Killed Wall Street

Unread postby crude_intentions » Tue 24 Feb 2009, 17:00:05

I don't think we can blame Wallstreets fall all on on Mr. Li, after all the answer to any equation depends entirely upon what figures are plugged into it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n two occasions I have been asked, – "Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?" In one case a member of the Upper, and in the other a member of the Lower House put this question. I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question
- Charles Babbage, father of the computer :lol:
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Re: The Chinaman Who Killed Wall Street

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 24 Feb 2009, 19:03:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crude_intentions', 'I') don't think we can blame Wallstreets fall all on on Mr. Li, after all the answer to any equation depends entirely upon what figures are plugged into it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n two occasions I have been asked, – "Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?" In one case a member of the Upper, and in the other a member of the Lower House put this question. I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question
- Charles Babbage, father of the computer :lol:


No. In fact, the article finishes up by saying the Mr. Li can not be blamed.

His equation was used by all of Wall Street, however, as an excuse to engage in reckless creation of derivatives. Another fine example of groupthink in action.
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Re: The Chinaman Who Killed Wall Street

Unread postby lawnchair » Tue 24 Feb 2009, 19:18:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crude_intentions', 'I') don't think we can blame Wallstreets fall all on on Mr. Li, after all the answer to any equation depends entirely upon what figures are plugged into it.


More than that, his equations weren't entirely wrong. Wrong, of course, in the sense that 500 people betting on red at the roulette wheel doesn't mean anyone has really figured out that red is more likely (fully rational actors wouldn't be at the table at the first place, would they). But, more critically:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ankers securitizing mortgages knew that their models were highly sensitive to house-price appreciation. If it ever turned negative on a national scale, a lot of bonds that had been rated triple-A, or risk-free, by copula-powered computer models would blow up.


The economist's growth fallacy. The idea that, if we keep building houses, and keep giving people money, there will be more people to occupy them, at ever-higher prices. Cargo cult behavior. It turns out that we can, easily, knock together taupe sheetrock dungheaps much, much faster than we need them.
At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
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Re: The Chinaman Who Killed Wall Street

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Tue 24 Feb 2009, 19:33:27

"To Err is Human, to REALLY fuck up takes a Computer".

While human beings are fallible, the application of computers and algorithms such as the one Mr. Li created enabled the crash to take on a scale previously inconceivable and in fact impossible to occur at anywhere NEAR the speed this one is going down.

It really goes back to basic education, the fact we graduate children who cannot add without the aid of a calculator. People tend to think that just because a computer spits out some result it must be accurate. Its only as accurate as the principles by which it was programmed and by the numbers fed into it as data. Mr Li's algorithms, like those of the Nobel Prize winnning Economists who took a mighty fall with Long Term Capital Management in the late 90s, are flawed algorithms. However, those in position to use them believed they were incapable of error.

When I used to get into arguments with Mr. Bill, I was astounded by the depth of his knowledge of the intricacies of the market and trading, but frankly he was utterly wrong in so many ways because he just didn't think in common sense terms and apply basic principles well enough. What was obvious to me was opaque to him because he was awash in a sea of numbers and financial instruments he worked with through the trading era.

Mr Li, and others like him really ARE responsible for what we have before us, because they built what Warren Buffett called "Weapons of Mass Financial Destruction". Mathematics has been used ever since Isaac Newton invented the Calculus and became Master of the Mint when the Bank of England was created to enslave and impoverish all but a very few people in control of this weapon. As Thomas Jefferson said, not even Standing Armies present the threat to your freedoms that Banksters do. People never really grasped this before, I think perhaps now they do.

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Wall Street Fraud Schemes Lead to 4 Arrests

Unread postby Ache » Wed 25 Feb 2009, 23:47:40

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29383778/ $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')our Wall Street fund managers were arrested by the FBI Wednesday for allegedly running three separate fraud schemes.
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