No doubt the following has been discussed. However, as time passes, situations develop, thus providing the opportunity to assess and evaluate plans and expectations for the future. Therefore, in that spirit, I propose we consider the impact of peak oil on the southern border region of the U.S.
We have some knowns. Cantarell, the big field owned and operated by PEMEX, is in decline. One source suggests a 35% annual rate of decline.
LINK 1 . In addition, Mexico derives as much as 40% of its budget from PEMEX.
LINK 2 . Cantarell represents a large part - perhaps around half - of total PEMEX production.
LINK 3It is worth noting that remittance payments from those in the U.S. to Mexico have declined.
LINK 4Based on the foregoing, let us consider Mexico.
Presently, Mexico faces an ongoing insurgency.
LINK 5So...will Mexico become a failed state, with no effective central government? I suspect the answer is yes. Timing is difficult to apply. I suspect 5 years and perhaps less.
If Mexico does descend into anarchy, large numbers are likely to seek escape into the U.S. If we suppose a slow recovery (or continued decline, as with Japan), then the U.S. will have neither jobs nor assistance money to provide. However, it seems unlikely that the flow of desperate economic refugees can be fully stopped. In my opinion, this suggests increased violent criminal activity within the U.S. In addition, their is the possibility of heightened ethnic conflict, likewise IMO.
So - what do you think? And, what is your working timeline?