[frankthetank]

I truly believe areas of the US are heading for a race war.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'I') truly believe areas of the US are heading for a race war.

[AirlinePilot]

Mexico wont survive in its present form for more than I'd say about a year from the time they cease to be an Oil Exporting nation.

My guess is within three years things get very interesting. The Govt loses control to the drug cartels and the basic economy there collapses. If we dont have the borders of the US figured out by then I'd say you see mass refugees headed into the US to a system which is basically broke and unable to take care of it's own people let alone a few more tens of millions on it's southern borders.

[gandolf]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'M')exico wont survive in its present form for more than I'd say about a year from the time they cease to be an Oil Exporting nation.

My guess is within three years things get very interesting. The Govt loses control to the drug cartels Judging by the bodies dumped on the side of the road this week I think that this has already happened and the basic economy there collapses. If we dont have the borders of the US figured out by then I'd say you see mass refugees headed into the US to a system which is basically broke and unable to take care of it's own people let alone a few more tens of millions on it's southern borders.

[Tanada]

When Mexico becomes a failed state in the next 18-24 months the Mexicans will attempt to flee northward. I sympathize because I would do the same thing in their situation. If they are allowed to flood into the USA there is a 50% chance that the USA will lose social safety nets all across the country, which will lead to a huge backlash against all minorities.

Those of us who think of ourselves as mixed race and who live in diverse neighborhoods are probably going to be at the greatest risk.

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'M')exico wont survive in its present form for more than I'd say about a year from the time they cease to be an Oil Exporting nation.

[Cloud9]

Tolerance is a byproduct of abundance. It is easier to give everyone a place at the table when there is enough to eat. In times of scarcity we tend to seek refuge in the smallest social unit, the family. For the most part, one’s family tends to be from one’s own ethnic group. Survival pits us against them.

Multiculturalism is a recipe for balkanization. It is the Balkans that gave us the term ethnic cleansing.

The last big race riot we had was primarily fought out between the minorities of L.A. As I remember, the largest number of people treated for injuries were Mexicans not Whites. The Korean community stood their ground.

Read James Waller’s book Becoming Evil, then buy a good shotgun and look to your own security.

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'M')exico wont survive in its present form for more than I'd say about a year from the time they cease to be an Oil Exporting nation.

My guess is within three years things get very interesting. The Govt loses control to the drug cartels and the basic economy there collapses. If we dont have the borders of the US figured out by then I'd say you see mass refugees headed into the US to a system which is basically broke and unable to take care of it's own people let alone a few more tens of millions on it's southern borders.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'M')exico wont survive in its present form for more than I'd say about a year from the time they cease to be an Oil Exporting nation.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'M')exico wont survive in its present form for more than I'd say about a year from the time they cease to be an Oil Exporting nation.

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'M')exico wont survive in its present form for more than I'd say about a year from the time they cease to be an Oil Exporting nation.

[eastbay]

Many dont, so you're in good company. Get in a traffic accident in Mexico and an ambulance wil take you to a hospital. Get arrested and convicted and cops will take you to a jail. Need a drink of water and you turn the tap and filter potable water. Shower and it flows into a fairly modern sewage system.
Have children and they go to a public school for free. In fact, UOM in DF is free too!

Yup, it ain't Europe or N. America, but compared to most nations on earth, Mexico still does fairly well.

And Jack's suggesting this won't last long. And he's right. It's crumbling pretty fast, in fact.

[Jack]

Here's another perspetive from Gerald Celente at Trends Research.
No link, subscription only. Website at:

http://www.trendsresearch.com/index.htm


Written from the perspective of an author in the year 2012:

The new breed of gangs made full use of the Internet —including MySpace, YouTube, Facebook, etc. — to recruit new members, boast about their deeds, and do deals. And they were armed, trained and war zone ready. With the US military hungry for recruits, lowering standards and accepting some with criminal records, it should have come as no surprise that gang members had infiltrated the armed forces.

The killing skills learned, the weapons stolen and thecombat discipline acquired would manifest in a more organized, sophisticated, and deadly army of gangs. This wasn’t West Side Story with switchblades, zip guns and a score by Leonard Bernstein.

And then there were the 150,000 strong, tightly structured, disciplined criminal networks of prison gangs. Once released, members returned home, picked up with their former crime partners and organized them into branches of the national prison gangs.

In 2009, the fiscal crisis had forced governments to trim the prison population to cut costs. After Medicaid, at $50 billion a year, maintaining prisons and housing prisoners constituted the highest domestic expenditure.

As gang members and low level criminals hit the streets, gang membership would boom. In the best of economic times gangs were experiencing 6 percent annual growth. Now, with the economy on the skids, high school graduation rates in major cities under 50 percent, and employment for even the educated drying up, a career as a gang member held out the best job prospect for the otherwise unemployable.

With police budgets strapped and orders from the top to concentrate on apprehending minor violators (speed traps, parking tickets, public nuisances, etc.) to generate fines for depleted state and local treasuries, there was inadequate police power to fight gang-related crime.

There was a lot of press in 2009 on Mexican drug gangs routinely murdering top government officials and police with impunity. Concerted federal campaigns that deployed some 25,000 troops were met with yet fiercer retaliation by the drug lords. In many towns throughout Mexico, criminal elements ruled.

As violence spread, especially in border towns, there were fears — soon to be realized — that Mexican gang violence would spill over the US border.

MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
In the US, up to 2009, a good portion of violence was gang-on-gang and drug related, but it would not stay that way. The American appetite for drugs, though huge, had its limits. 20,000 gangs vying for the same market produced a power struggle that saw individual gangs looking to both diversify and merge with competitors. Other businesses gangs were involved in included auto theft, assault, burglary, extortion, home invasion robberies, homicide, identity theft, insurance fraud, mortgage fraud, prostitution rings and weapons trafficking.

But the most profitable gangland business model imported into the US from Mexico was kidnapping. Between 2007 and 2009, nearly 700 kidnappings for ransom were recorded in Phoenix. These were confined almost exclusively to Latinos involved in the drug or immigrant-trafficking industries. But by 2012, Phoenix, along with Los Angeles, Atlanta, Chicago, New York City … would look like Mexico City. Kidnapping would become an equal opportunity criminal occupation with extraordinary profit potential.

It would expand exponentially beyond the current Latino/drug/trafficking market sectors to include anyone (white, black, old, young) able, or thought to be able, to pay a high ransom.

The Trends Journal • Spring 2009

[Cloud9]

As law enforcement becomes incapable of dealing with rising criminal gangs due to legal restraints, declining budgets and the corruption of their forces Americans will return to traditional vigilance committees to maintain order. We as a nation have a long history of summary justice.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigilance_committee

[rangerone314]

Never quite sure I understood the societal concept of warehousing career criminals... either permanently or temporarily. Temporarily makes no sense because they will get out and do more crime so you only get a temporary respite, and locking them up permanently is a waste of resources on someone who is not only non-productive but parasitic and predatory.

There should be a 3-strikes-you're-dead rule (or assign crimes points and have a 50-points-you're dead rule). The only reason that a person should have a "rap sheet" that has multiple items on it should be a computer glitch where they slipped through the cracks.

Killing criminals makes more sense than waging wars that kill innocent people, and humans sure do THAT enough. Why not do something that actually makes sense?

[Cloud9]

The first decade of my working life, I worked for the Florida Department of Corrections. I witnessed the transition from the Department of Prisons to the Department of Offender Rehabilitation. As a result, I have some experience with the old style chain gangs and the more modern systems.

We need to revert back to the age of work camps and get away from warehousing. There is no need to be cruel to people who are incarcerated. You don’t have to beat them or shoot them, but you do need to work them. Too many people saw Cool Hand Luke and took up the cause of the convict. The convict was a looser. He turned a minor infraction into a death sentence.

There was a time when prisons were self sustaining. Some of them made money for their states.

[rangerone314]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'T')he first decade of my working life, I worked for the Florida Department of Corrections. I witnessed the transition from the Department of Prisons to the Department of Offender Rehabilitation. As a result, I have some experience with the old style chain gangs and the more modern systems.

We need to revert back to the age of work camps and get away from warehousing. There is no need to be cruel to people who are incarcerated. You don’t have to beat them or shoot them, but you do need to work them. Too many people saw Cool Hand Luke and took up the cause of the convict. The convict was a looser. He turned a minor infraction into a death sentence.

There was a time when prisons were self sustaining. Some of them made money for their states.

[Pops]

The all volunteer service predictably draws people with fewer opportunities than, say, Harvard Law. I say that as the father of two Staff Sgts, one Army, one AF. No surprise it could serve as a training ground for a bad guy or even a cause of a guy turning bad.

At any rate I've long wondered about racial tensions in the US, the comments by the POTUS last night and the ensuing hubub simply underscore the fact many are still itching for some definitive event - certainly not one they would throw a stone in but one they can poke at and fantasize about and stir the pot.

OTOH, I'd like to think increasing mobility has stirred the pot in a good way the last 50 years or so but I'm not sure.

I'd wonder about the scenario where the gang violence does more than spill over to the taxpayer. We are very good at looking the other way when the problem isn't in our neighborhoods but we raise a stink when it gets local.

I'm just rambling here but security is the first responsibility of gov, and though it may take a little slap in the face, should push come to shove I'd bet funding for the library gets slammed in a heartbeat in favor of whatever policing it takes.

[Pops]

Oh, I forgot to mention, our county is about 98%white, probably 900 miles from a border and I'd guess guns outnumber people 2 or 3 to one for whatever it matters.

[timmac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')FBI: Mexicans chased away agents after slaying
The death is the second in two weeks involving agents

Mexican teen killed by U.S. border agent
June 9: A 15-year-old Mexican is shot dead after throwing rocks at a U.S. border agent near the El Paso-Ciudad Juarez crossing. As NBC’s Pete Williams reports, the Mexican government is calling for a full investigation.

CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico - Pointing their rifles, Mexican security forces chased away U.S. authorities investigating the shooting of a 15-year-old Mexican by a U.S. Border Patrol agent on the banks of the Rio Grande, the FBI and witnesses told The Associated Press on Wednesday.

The killing of the Mexican by U.S. authorities — the second in less than two weeks — has exposed the distrust between the two countries that lies just below the surface, and has enraged Mexicans who see the death of the boy on Mexican soil as an act of murder.