by TWilliam » Tue 11 Oct 2005, 00:11:46
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'I')t won't come for a while. Indeed, increasing efficiency will buy us 10-15 years of flat or decreasing energy consumption, as it did in the '70s and '80s.
Hmmm... I'm skeptical on this one.
While I do agree that there are still some gains to be made thru increasing efficiency (ignoring for the moment the issue of
Jevons), I'm doubtful that we can duplicate the efficiency gains we made back then. Vehicle engines are about as efficient as they can be now, and there's only so much insulating, caulking and climate-control one can do to a house.
Granted, more people utilizing Beetles rather than Escalades will likely produce a drop in demand, at least for a time, but I doubt we'll see the same degree of flattening that we did in the 70s & 80s. I don't think the gains are there to be made this time...
This is of course assuming no radical lifestyle changes for the largest percentage of the consuming public. Can you see all these 'Boomers on bicycles? Me neither...
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "