[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') strike by Hamas (the government of PA) becomes an act of war by one government upon the people of another country.

[cs1992]

Erl, I agree.

Palestine (as a whole) is now a legitimate target of attack if Israel is provoked by a Hamas act of terrorism. Hamas is no longer acting as a Palestinian Islamist movement and political party, it is the government.

Israel should have every right to attack any faction of Palestine if attacked again. I do not believe that this was a step in the right direction for the Palestinians.

[Jake_old]

Considering that Hamas would only accept the 1967 borders (maybe less!)

here or here

There is not much scope for peace. I think it is now too late for Israel to exist within those borders.

Am I wrong?

[Luckystars]

edit

[smiley]

What do they get when they vote for Fatah?

I mean how on earth can you ever consider a government competent which accepts the fact that your country is bombed once in a while by another country?

Envision Bush trying to explain the Canadians bombing the USA and getting away with it. I don't think he would survive another minute in office.

Things like the siege on Arafats office have not given the PA much credibility either. In that sense the Israeli's have actually created this dilemma by denying Abbas any support.

To understand why the people have voted for Hamas you will have to understand what Hamas is about. Most people see it as a terrorist organization, and it is. But it is also much more. Hamas is doing a lot of stuff on a community level like education, micro-loans, community support, security etc. They are doing much more on a community level than the PA. Just like the IRA did.

I suspect that it is these activities which gets them most of their support, not the violent acts.

The question is will they see this election as a approval for more violence or as a call to take their political responsibility. Perhaps by denouncing violence or by the formation of a political oriented non-violent (Sinn Fein like) wing.

If it is the first than that is very bad.

If it is the latter (and I certainly hope so) it could actually be very good.

I think we have to at least give them the benefit of the doubt until they start formulating a political program and start executing it.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he question is will they see this election as a approval for more violence or as a call to take their political responsibility.

[Aqua]

Is there any hint that Hamas has changed their agenda from one of all out war to negotiation over the past few years? The same sort of thing happened here in Northern Ireland in the early nineties with the IRA calling a ceasefire and the eventual end to the long war and Sinn Fein taking on a much more normal political role. That didn’t just happen, a hell of a lot of debate went on behind closed doors before the decision was made but it marked a major shift in thinking amongst the Republican movement. I would hazard a guess that the same sort of thing is going on in the Hamas organisation right now. At first sight this looks like a scary development but it might eventually be quite positive news to the Palestinian problem. Maybe more than a few in Hamas are tired of endless war with the misery it brings to their people, there comes a point when glorious victory becomes just too far away even to the most battle hardened.
I can just imagine some Hamas politician in a couple of years from now standing on a soapbox spouting “ they haven’t gone a way ye know” referring to the little seen jihad brigade as a mild threat/humour much to the disgust and condemnation of the Israelis but jubilation to the more hard line faction within their ranks.

But then again certain geologic realities just might upset things somewhat in the meantime. If peak has happened or going to happen soon then four or five years from now Israel is in big trouble and all bets are off. Any weakness in Israel with be exploited fully by all Arabs not just the Palestinians.

[OneLoneClone]

All parties in power try to stay in power. As a opposition group they could afford to be more extreme, to pander to the most extreme radicals.

As the party in power, self-preservation will probably be the order of the day. They cannot attack Israel directly, they can no longer conduct terrorist strikes without it being an act of war as cc1992 mentioned.

I bet if they are mainstreamed another terrorist group will rise to take their place...

[Leanan]

Yeah, I think peak oil is going to trump all other considerations. Israel is in an extremely unenviable position, I fear.

CNN just had a story that basically came down to "democracy sucks." The Palestinians voted in Hamas. Islamistic radicals made big gains in Egypt. Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese government. Iran voted in Ahmadinejad. Islamist parties won in Iraq.

And people wonder why we supported dictators like Saddam Hussein and Ferdinand Marcos...

[backstop]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cs1992', 'E')rl, I agree.

Palestine (as a whole) is now a legitimate target of attack if Israel is provoked by a Hamas act of terrorism. Hamas is no longer acting as a Palestinian Islamist movement and political party, it is the government.

Israel should have every right to attack any faction of Palestine if attacked again. I do not believe that this was a step in the right direction for the Palestinians.

[PrairieMule]

I imagine the Israelis will want to pat down the new Hamas envoy for a bomb vest before they sit down and talk.

[jdmartin]

On a side note to all of this, if anyone gets the Sundance Channel look for a documentary called "Ford Transit". It follows a Palestinian "bus" driver around and gives you some interesting perspective from everyday, run of the mill Palestinians in the West Bank. I found it very engaging. Shows a different side of things than maybe we see in the media.

[kam30en]

This is what will happen, and soon, Israel (or perhaps the U.S.) will bomb Iran, destroying there nuclear sites. The U.S. definately has the means, and Israel probably has the means, what with the U.S.'s help and there satellites and intelligence gathering operations. Iran, the Palestinians, and all there allies will make a big fuss, perhaps killing jews abroad and in Israel, blowing up busses, trains, etc in minor terror attacks....that'll be all. What else can they do. Iran can launch outdated soviet-stlye missiles at Israel, which Israel has the capability of possibly shooting down, and than Israel could nuke Iran, killing tens of millions. Iran could launch chemical attacks, but Israelis are prepared for this, every Israeli owns a gas mask and is ready to use it. The counterattack by Israel would, again, kill millions. There is a reason Israel is still around, they have the big guns. If Iran or any other arabs could wipe Israel off the map, they would. But not without killing themselves also. Israel has last strike capability, with nuclear attack sumbarines. With hundreds of nukes, Israel could destroy more than just the middle east. So no, I don't expect WWIII from this, not when Israel is fighting against people who think strapping bombs on there bodies will win them a war. Arabs or anyone else, however determined, cannot fight overwhelming technological might with rocks, bomb belts, or words.

[backstop]

Kam30en -

Could you post links giving hard evidence for your predictions above ?

Or is this just recycling the war-scare propaganda you're hearing ?

I'd be particularly interested to learn more about the "nuclear attack sumbarines"

regards,

Backstop

[Zardoz]

Israel rules out talks with Hamas

No surprise...

[mekrob]

The good thing though is that if they do try to be reasonable and stop terrorist attacks since Israel might be harsher, then at least Hamaas has the ability to counteract any other organization unlike 'Abbas. I heard that they routinely got in firefights and the terrorist org's always won. Now the gov't will have the real authority. This is only good if they choose to do something good with their power. Like what was said earlier, they can't afford to have Israel attacking them constantly or else they lose in their promise of protection.

[erl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'K')am30en -

Could you post links giving hard evidence for your predictions above ?

Or is this just recycling the war-scare propaganda you're hearing ?

I'd be particularly interested to learn more about the "nuclear attack sumbarines"

[bbadwolf]

I think the tide is turning against Israel. For decades the only thing between them and the next holocost has been US protection and supply of arms. With much of the Middle East now thumbing their noses at the West, knowing full well that it would be insane to fight against the region with most of the remaining oil, I suspect that the US will eventually have to give up on protecting Israel or sacrifice itself in the process. Remember what happened when they shipped them emergency supplies last time. They called that an oil crisis! Think of how much worse it would be now!!! It's a Mutually Assured Destruction scenario and the Arabs know it.

The Arabs have been abused and mistreated by Israel for too many decades and soon the time will be right for them to strike back. Without US aid, they're toast. And the next holocost will be MUCH uglier than the last one. The Arabs have no reason to show any mercy, the Israelis certainly haven't.

If I were a Jew living in Israel, I think I'd be preparing to move just a about now. I suspect that within a decade, the Arabs will go in and simply wipe them out. And the US will be powerless to stop it.

-bbad

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')rabs or anyone else, however determined, cannot fight overwhelming technological might with rocks, bomb belts, or words.

[backstop]

Erl -

thanks for your question.

As I understand it, a prediction is based on evidence, while a forecast that lacks an evidential base is mere speculation - in giving him the benefit of the doubt, I chose the word prediction.

Re Irael's nuclear capacity, try Google for - Vanunu + nuclear scientist - he blew the secret development of the first bombs to the world's press,
with photos and professional reports,
and was then kidnapped and gaoled for 20 years or so in solitary confinement -
So yes, Israel's nuclear capacity is for real.

However, retro-fitting nuclear-tipped rockets into a diesel sub sounds pretty far fetched -
the sheer scale of the launch tubes would I think be untenable.

With regard to the war scare, I'm of course willing to differ amicably over this, but I hope I might ease your concerns
by pointing out that US republicans are already seeing the next elextion as problematic due to Cheyney's actions thus far -
neither they nor the corporations nor NATO allies will support the provocation of an oil shock by a US attack on Iran.
All parties can imagine what $150 / barrel would do to the economy.

regards,

Backstop