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THE Apple Company Thread (merged)

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby copious.abundance » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 00:24:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'Y')ou've just described what is happening right now. Question, what's in it for the 5%? How many services do they possibly need?

See reply to AgentR11 above. Some people will simply want to do this for the extra money, or maybe they're nerdy types who enjoy designing robots or working at control panels in factories. With the bigger paychecks they'll have bigger houses than the 95%. No different from now.

You'll probably end up with a bifurcated society with the techno-nerds at the top and everyone else below them, but since the 95% at the "bottom" will still reap the benefits of the incredible productivity of the 5% techno-nerds, they probably won't really mind.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby prajeshbhat » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 00:54:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')OilFinder Wrote:-

See reply to AgentR11 above. Some people will simply want to do this for the extra money, or maybe they're nerdy types who enjoy designing robots or working at control panels in factories. With the bigger paychecks they'll have bigger houses than the 95%. No different from now.

You'll probably end up with a bifurcated society with the techno-nerds at the top and everyone else below them, but since the 95% at the "bottom" will still reap the benefits of the incredible productivity of the 5% techno-nerds, they probably won't really mind.


LMAO.
Clearly you don't understand how human societies work. If technological progress really resulted in techno-nerds reaching the top of the social pyramid, they would be running things in governments all over the world today. We have been having technological progress for the past 5000 years. Didn't change a damn thing. By the way, by early 20th century only 5% of the population were farmers in western countries who were producing all the food required for the population. Doesn't mean west became a bifurcated society with farmers on top. :lol: :lol: :lol:
What's probably going to happen is that more and more people will compete for these techno-jobs which will put downward pressure on the wages of engineers. Companies don't keep production constant when technology improves their productivity, they just keep on expanding. It's called exponential growth. There will never be an oversupply of techno-nerds(and they will never never be the top prize catches of the society 8O ). That place is still reserved for sportstars and Paris Hilton types. Leadership in modern society doesn't require technical skills. The leaders are chosen based on their organizational skills. People who can manipulate and organize people will continue to run things.
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby copious.abundance » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 01:09:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')learly you don't understand how human societies work. If technological progress really resulted in techno-nerds reaching the top of the social pyramid, they would be running things in governments all over the world today.

I never said anything about the social or, for that matter, the political pyramid. I was talking only about an economic hierarchy.

Do you see Bill Gates and Steve Jobs running the government - or even wanting to? I sure don't. Just because some people have a lot of economic power, does not mean they'll be running the government.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat's probably going to happen is that more and more people will compete for these techno-jobs which will put downward pressure on the wages of engineers.

Not necessarily. It could be that most people won't want those jobs.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby AgentR11 » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 01:41:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'Y')ou won't really be working harder than anyone else.


I think someone tried to sell me that line before.
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby Keith_McClary » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 02:29:14

Apple suppliers are already roboticized:
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby Sixstrings » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 04:18:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')HY am I going to want to work hard enough to provide the goods and services for the remaining 95% of the population?

You won't really be working harder than anyone else. You'll probably be programming or designing robots, or maybe working in front of a control panel in a factory. You might not even be working full-time. It's just that you'll be making more money (per hour) than anyone else. Some people will simply choose to do this for a living because they either want the big paycheck, or they simply like doing it. Others will choose to do something else. Same as it is now.


OIlfinder, you usually don't get into speculative talk but I see that when you do you're even more wrong than usual.

What a myth you're perpetuating. Take the auto manufacturers.. robots and automation have resulted in fewer jobs. And pay cuts for those jobs that remain.

The biggest fallacy you're pushing is the "everyone can be an iphone app designer" or "everyone can just be a robot engineer" myth. :roll: What you don't realize is that the software programmer essentially works to serve a customer base of millions if not billions. The world will never, ever, need billions of programmers and robot engineers. Far fewer are required to handle those jobs, the whole point of these technologies is to remove human resources cost in the first place, ergo they do not result in more jobs.

It's not like each software program is written from scratch per customer copy -- one guy does his work, gets paid, then that software can be sold and resold to millions or billions without ever paying another programmer again.

This is why companies like Google, Facebook, and all the web businesses hardly employ anyone. I think like 2,000 total employees for Facebook, a company on the verge of a $100 billion IPO. In the new economy, you only need a handful of employees to serve billions of customers.

Maybe everyone can be artists.. but honestly, how much art do you own Oilfinder? I doubt you have hundreds of pieces of artwork around the house providing jobs for local artists. Even if you do, once your house is full you have to stop buying. Also you probably listen to mainstream music that any of us would recognize, you probably watch the same movies and TV we do.. all that is mass media, that means very few people producing art for millions and billions of people.

The jobs crisis is all about extreme levels of efficiency. We don't need a theater company and vaudeville in every town, we have TV. We don't need millions of factory workers, we have Chinese for that -- and now robots, no humans at all. Efficiency everywhere.. software voice recognition has eliminated phone customer service jobs. ATM eliminate bank tellers. Netflix put the video stores out of business. Even simple efficiencies like how Walmart has the cashier also bag the groceries so voila no bag boy jobs. Before people started stealing too much, my local Walmart got rid of all cashiers in favor of self-checkout.

My argument here is the luddite argument, and it has been wrong in the past, but I think things have changed -- we've now reached the upper levels of efficiency to where jobs are no longer created by even more efficiency.
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby dsula » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 06:56:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')The biggest fallacy you're pushing is the "everyone can be an iphone app designer"

There was a time a man owned 1 pair of shoes. Because it took serious time to make a pair of shoes it was not cheap to own one. There comes along machinery that helps making shoes.
1 of 2 things happened. Either every man still owns one pair of shoes and a lot of shoemakers lost their jobs. Or shoemakers became operators, technicians, mechanics, programmers ... and people bought MORE shoes because they are cheaper. Do you own more than one pair of shoes, Six?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')We don't need millions of factory workers, we have Chinese for that -- and now robots, no humans at all.

Since I read you on this board you complain about jobs going to china. Ain't ya happy now? Jobs are coming back. There's no reason to have armies of robots sitting in china, where you can get a blackout anytime. Robots are designed here in europe and america. They can also be used here. And they will provide jobs for engineers, technicians, operators, maintainers. And with this unbelievable gain in efficiency, who knows, we might even EXPORTS iCrap to china, for a change.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'w')e've now reached the upper levels of efficiency to where jobs are no longer created by even more efficiency.

The end of consumerism is to consume as much as possible in as little of time as possible, leading to consuming an infinite amount in an infinte short period of time. So we have plenty of room to grow.
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby Pops » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 07:34:52

I'm a luditte at heart.

Still, I've made most of my income from desktop publishing which is the epitome of a disruptive technology. I was an early adopter and certainly directly put one or two guys out of a good paying job (probably guys I knew or had at least met) because me and my Mac could do things they couldn't and could do it way cheaper and better and faster and still make good money - not as much as all the trades we replaces though.

And that's the trade off disruptive technologies as mentioned above, better/cheaper/faster. 20 years ago a full color flyer could cost several thousand dollars to get to press, $5/6/7k if it used custom photography - and of course much more depending on the market and how much money the client had to blow. All because lots of hands were needed.

Today it can be done for a few hundred and printed digital at Kinkos for 50¢ each. The kicker is, desktop publishing is now on the BEA list of declining professions, replaced by electronic media I guess.


But as was said above, the trade off is that everything is cheaper so you need work less - as long as you don't want everything. We own our home so we don't have rent but we can get by on very little simply because things are so cheap.

Now, if they can just install some of those 'bots at the doctor's office.
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby Sixstrings » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 08:02:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', 'S')ince I read you on this board you complain about jobs going to china. Ain't ya happy now? Jobs are coming back. There's no reason to have armies of robots sitting in china, where you can get a blackout anytime.


The jobs aren't coming back, it's Foxconn that bought the robots so the jobs are staying right in China. Not that robot jobs are jobs anyhow, they're property -- the ultimate in slave labor. These new robots are designed to be plopped right in the same seat humans used to sit in, and use the very same tools.

Who cares if we get robot jobs. Robots don't pay taxes. Robots don't vote, or get involved in the community, or have cookouts on the fourth of July.

You really want a robot society? Companies just firing the people and plopping down one of these new robots? This ain't science fiction any more guys, it's here and starting right now with iPhones and iPads. Won't end there, this million robot jobs is just the beginning.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he end of consumerism is to consume as much as possible in as little of time as possible, leading to consuming an infinite amount in an infinte short period of time. So we have plenty of room to grow.


So is that what it all comes down to? Infinite production and infinite consumption in an infinitely short amount of time until you reach an ultimate singularity of infinite consumption where everything is consumed at once in a flash then bang.. maybe the universe starts all over again. :lol:

What happened to this forum. What happened to transition towns, a World Made By Hand, village blacksmiths and limits to growth. Now you all welcome our new robot overlords if it means you can pick up the iPad 5 for ten bucks less.
Last edited by Sixstrings on Tue 02 Aug 2011, 08:21:28, edited 9 times in total.
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby davep » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 08:06:28

So nobody's calling them iRobots yet?
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby vision-master » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 08:26:02

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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby Sixstrings » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 08:36:32

In answer to the question of sustainability of robot labor and extreme levels of efficiency in general..

Economically, eventually you put so many working people out of a job that it eats into your customer base. That would force some kind of economic balance. Also, get enough people out of work and eventually you wind up with revolution.

I know automation and robot labor can't be stopped.. but I also know efficiency gains have been so high that this is the true reason we're not creating jobs anymore. In the CNN interview the new IMF chief said exactly that -- American joblessness is because of efficiency gains. Offshoring is part of it too of course, but I said a long time ago that efficiency and automation is the other half of the equation.

So while this cannot be stopped.. and it's super cool and who doesn't like robots right.. eventually enough people are going to be put out of work that something will have to be figured out. There will have to be a new communism, there's no other possible answer to what amounts to the end of human labor.
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby vision-master » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 08:39:10

Oily does have a point. :)
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby Sixstrings » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 08:48:24

I'm really surprised nobody on this forum can connect the dots on the automation and efficiency issue. You laugh at singularity doomers, yet you are all early adopters of each new tech advance and latest iPad release. I'm old enough to remember when people laughed at the idea of having a personal computer in the home.

Similarly you laugh about the singularity and robot workers, yet here it is it's real -- that smiling Swiss scientist just put a million people out of work. People who have families to feed, who live in a country that doesn't even have short term unemployment comp, no welfare. What are they supposed to do now?

That's my main beef here, is that the same people who are for more efficiency and automation are against assistance for the jobless who have been displaced by automation -- and now robots with fingers for God's sake. 8O
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby Pops » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 09:05:25

So what are you doing about it Six?
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby vision-master » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 09:13:19

I'm just surfing the wave. :)

Enjoying things while I'm still able.
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby Sixstrings » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 10:19:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')o what are you doing about it Six?


I'm going to keep an eye on that stock :lol: Not that I have much extra money to invest plus I have bad luck with stocks. :| Would just be nice to get in on the ground floor of whatever the next game changer will be.

As for the morality of it.. well I'll keep being liberal and keep voting Democrat because it's not the 99ers fault they can't find work -- there aren't enough jobs anymore.
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby Pops » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 10:49:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')o what are you doing about it Six?


I'm going to keep an eye on that stock


Seriously, I think that's about the only thing to do - that, learn to be happy without trying to have it all and get into a service trade. If I were younger and worried about offshoring I'd put myself in a "hands on" profession like Savinar did.

There are some jobs that will be around for a long while before we hear "They make a 'bot for that!" The average plumber makes $40 a year. A personable, reliable guy that can snake drains and patch frozen pipes will probably always find work. An A/C repair guy, that sort of thing, can't be offshored and if you are on the ball and can make your own gig instead of working for someone else you could double that income probably. One $100 service call a day is 50k/yr gross for pete sake.


http://www1.salary.com/Plumber-I-salary.html
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby copious.abundance » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 11:25:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'T')he biggest fallacy you're pushing is the "everyone can be an iphone app designer" or "everyone can just be a robot engineer" myth. :roll:

You paid absolutely NO attention to what I said. None. Did you even read it at all?

I said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')magine just 5% of the population engineering & producing material goods needed for the whole population, while the other 95% works as artists, bankers, real estate agents, retail clerks, government bureaucrats, etc.

5% is hardly "everyone." Please pay attention next time. Thank you, and have a nice day. :)
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Apple supplier to replace workers with 1 million robots

Postby Sixstrings » Tue 02 Aug 2011, 11:30:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')here are some jobs that will be around for a long while before we hear "They make a 'bot for that!"


Well that's a good point, people can keep scrambling to stay ahead of the robot / automation curve. But as automation and efficiency march forward, ever more people are scrambling for same jobs. But overall you're right Pops, I'm just saying there's no getting away from the joblessness problem in the community. It's an issue, I can't go to McDonalds for coffee without getting panhandled for cash.

This tech has progressed faster than I thought it would. We all knew it was coming, some thought maybe peak oil collapse would happen first though. Then one day you read the news and it's casually reported that iStuff will now be manufactured by robots who have arms and fingers.

I now take the singularity thing more seriously.. whenever that happens, it will be a major game changer.. robots and software will be able to do so much more that currently only people can.
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