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Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby Plantagenet » Fri 27 Apr 2012, 13:31:33

You know your local economy and politics better than I do, R11----sounds like Houston may have gone down the wrong track.

At least Houston is nice and flat for your great bicycle trips.

I've got a 600' elevation gain up to my house, so I tend to pick the motorcycle over the bike for my trips into town. 8)
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby dinopello » Fri 27 Apr 2012, 14:09:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'S')ubway system installations are the most expensive and need to be built during good times, not bad.


That's not necessarily true. During down times, labor is cheaper and material is cheaper.

It does take planning, time, and most importantly - political will.

This shows the evolution of the DC metro system. It's a relatively simple system but took decades of planning and building.
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby vision-master » Fri 27 Apr 2012, 14:41:16

Mpls Street Car system - replaced by GM buses in the early 50's......

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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby Pops » Fri 27 Apr 2012, 15:04:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'w')as a REAGAN administration bill.

Exactly. Note as well that until recently all transportation bills were largely bi-partisan legislation.

So what has changed to make MT less desirable? Could it be the insurgent rural, anti-urban minority of the GOP – the tool of the owners?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n other words, mass transit would change from a dedicated earmark to a normal annual appropriation. Big deal.

<snort>
No need to be coy. Really, doesn't that get a bit tiring?
The old, white, rural base of the GOP wants to eliminate funding for MT – and anything else to do with cities for that matter, isn't that right? Why else go to the trouble of eliminating the floor of 20% if not to reduce the amount of funding? Be serious. LOL!

It makes me laugh at the mental gymnastics preformed to try and obscure what is obvious. Admitting what everyone knows wouldn't change elections results in the least. Just come out and say "I just want to keep my money, screw the people who built the infrastructure that allowed me to earn it – and screw the rest of the country and screw the future as well, I got mine."
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby Plantagenet » Fri 27 Apr 2012, 15:48:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')The old, white, rural base of the GOP wants to eliminate funding for MT – and anything else to do with cities for that matter, isn't that right? Why else go to the trouble of eliminating the floor of 20% if not to reduce the amount of funding? Be serious. LOL!


Sorry---I tend to look at what is actually in the bills rather than just accept what a columnist for Salon says. I see some flaws in the SALON analysis:

1. If the "old, white, rural base of the GOP" wants to eliminate funding for MT, then why isn't it eliminated in the Republican budget?

2. If the young, people-of-color, urban base of the Dems wants more funding for the MT, then why isn't it there more funding for MT in the Democratic budget?

3. Its curious that the democrat politicians like to campaign against having dedicated earmarks in the budget, but are complaining now because the dedicated earmark for MT may be changed to a normal budget item. Could it be that the young people-of-color urban dems are hypocrites who only want earmarks for their own districts? :?:
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby dinopello » Fri 27 Apr 2012, 16:30:15

Those of you interested in the Transportation issues should consider signing up with Transportation for America. This is a broad-based group headed by some very savvy policy and political people working this issue.
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby Pops » Fri 27 Apr 2012, 16:34:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '1'). If the "old, white, rural base of the GOP" wants to eliminate funding for MT, then why isn't it eliminated in the Republican budget?

You're pulling my leg Plant and working hard to do it. Just like I said, you're being too coy by half when there is absolutely no reason. No TEA partier worth their salt supports MT do they? Why act like the do? Why act like the GOP as it is currently constituted is not at the TEA's mercy?

It isn't a complicated question, why eliminate the permanent guarantee if not to eliminate the funding either in this budget or the next?
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby Timo » Fri 27 Apr 2012, 16:48:54

I find this thread oddly entertaining, reading about planning and forethought and the public good.......... As one who entered the profession specifically to improve the future for the lot of us, i can tell you all in no uncertain terms that "common sense" is extremely uncommon. Personal liberties trumps the common good. Private property rights trumps insightful preparation for known and expected disasters. In some cases, sure, the individuals rights should prevail against unwanted and unnecessary public intrusion. There are lots of examples where public projects are carried out for all the wrong reasons. BUT, the broader public assumes, then, based on only a few of these examples, that ALL public projects are evil and wasteful, and they demand legislation that specifically prohibits governments from considering the much larger purpose of serving the public good, under any circumstances. One umbrella does not fit all. As an unfortunate example of this description, on Monday, i sat in a meeting of our local MPO (that uses fed$$ for transportation projects), and a City Council member asked what the payback period was for installing GPS tracking devices on our local busses so users could track them on-line to know where they were relative to the bus stop. This council member then proceeded to ask what the payback period was for CNG busses, then bus shelters for patrons, then even the planning for future bus services at all. His expectation was that PT is a business and it should make money. Someone in the room (a planner) returned the question to ask him what the payback period was for an arterial road, then a collector, then a residential street, then a sewer line. The Council member was forced to realize that not everything governments do can, or should be run as a business. Some government functions serve the public, for the public good, and they are paid for by the public through taxes. Without these services, our very civilization would be unrecognizable. Now, not every city has the same needs or abilities. Melbourne may have a fantastic PT system. However, Auckland, for example, does not. Auckland is built on a series of old dormant volcanoes with lots of naturally occuring variations in the shoreline, making for a very large number of peninsulas that have been developed for their 2 million(?) people. It would be physically impossible to attach all of the various parts of Auckland via light rail, above or below ground. Well, if possible at all, it would cost billions in any currency. Point being, again, one umbrella does not cover every situation. Characterizing one problem or one solution as the panacea for all is counterproductive. As far as $9/gal gas is concerned, the only way to know for sure is to see it in the rear view mirror.
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby dinopello » Fri 27 Apr 2012, 17:00:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I')t isn't a complicated question, why eliminate the permanent guarantee if not to eliminate the funding either in this budget or the next?


I'll answer. It is partly an ideological objection on the part of many of the Tea Party types to the notion of "public" transportation as you have stated (oddly, they don't put roads and bridges and other car infrastructure in there often). It is also partly the lack of understanding on the part of many in the house (mostly the new class) about how budgets work at this level. Long term projects require long-term committed financing or they get tied up in the push and pull of every yearly political struggle and end up failing to be built, failing due to lack of maintenance and costing way more in the long run.
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby Plantagenet » Fri 27 Apr 2012, 17:18:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')It isn't a complicated question, why eliminate the permanent guarantee if not to eliminate the funding either in this budget or the next?


I've answered it twice already. Heres the third time.

Because the current policy of Congress is to get rid of all the earmarks in the budget. The democrats started this process, by the way.

If you are concerned that ending the MT earmark will end the program, then rest easy. While the dems haven't done a real budget in several years, funding for MT is in the Republican budget proposal. :)
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby rangerone314 » Fri 27 Apr 2012, 18:31:48

How many Americans REALLY drive Hummers?

America is much more spread out than Europe, too many suburbs. America is fooked.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 28 Apr 2012, 22:40:12

Lots of interesting point here, but a core point seems to be missing or at least understated.

If it takes time, not only will people be able to adapt -- but, given the mileage standards that (supposedly) will be required -- vehicles WILL adapt, given the fleet mpg requirements mandated during Obama's tenure.

(There's LOTS I don't like Obama, but this was definitely a good thing). My main concern, especially given the U.S. interest now in GM and Chrysler is will the new mpg requirements be ENFORCED? If not -- then the impetus for future improvements will be greatly reduced. The U.S.'s past record for this (forgiving the big 3 for falling short, exceptions for pickup trucks, etc) is not encouraging.

If it takes, say 10 years for gasoline to escalate to $9.00 per gallon, the higher mpg standards of the average new car will GREATLY reduce the pain of this. It won't completely solve the problem, but it will surely help.

Of course, it's not free either. The cars will cost more. The many more-efficient electric motors needed (small ones to do all sorts of functions in the car to save fuel) are larger than current parts. Getting them to all FIT is a designer's nightmare - even without the cost issue.

I remain a moderate -- rough sledding ahead intermediate term, but nothing close to doom, barring some cataclysmic event. (And if we live beyond 12/21/12, of course).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby Revi » Sat 28 Apr 2012, 23:41:34

The cost of running a car is around $9000 a year now. If gas goes up it will increase that to 10 or 11 thousand dollars. Most people are going to be out of cars within the next 5 or ten years anyway. The price of gas may not even matter to most people. The only appropriate use of gas is in forestry and agriculture anway.
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby AgentR11 » Sat 28 Apr 2012, 23:59:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he cost of running a car is around $9000 a year now. If gas goes up it will increase that to 10 or 11 thousand dollars. Most people are going to be out of cars within the next 5 or ten years anyway. The price of gas may not even matter to most people. The only appropriate use of gas is in forestry and agriculture anway.


Only if you are playing keepin' up with the Jones'...

Mine:
Insurance: 800
Depreciation: 500
Maintenance: 1500
Taxes&Fees: 100
Gas: 1000

Total: 3900.

Step outside people's expectations and you find a whole lot of "impossible" is trivially easy.
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby Beery1 » Sun 29 Apr 2012, 07:16:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '$')9 bucks! Big deal! Plenty of places have been paying that already. Hasn't triggered any revolutions yet that I have heard of.


Exactly. While some folks in the lower economic range will be less able to fill their gas tanks, many will just see it as part of the price of doing business. $9/gallon might force those working at McDonalds to reconsider their jobs, but for the average executive, it's not even going to make much of a dent in their salary. As for those whose businesses rely on fuel to move their product, they'll just pass on the costs to the consumer.

Those in the lower wage spectrum will switch to more local jobs and carpooling, walking or cycling to work, and this will make them more resilient to further oil price spikes. It may also result in service industry wages going up as labor becomes scarcer.

The real test will, I think, come at $20/gallon. If it can get that high without totally ruining the economy.
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby Beery1 » Sun 29 Apr 2012, 07:28:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'H')ow many Americans REALLY drive Hummers?

America is much more spread out than Europe, too many suburbs. America is fooked.


America is hardly the Gobi Desert. Most Americans live within ten miles of a major city. That's easily bikeable and can even be walked in a pinch. America's Eastern Seaboard is just as populated as Northern Europe. I live in a suburb of Washington DC - it's 8 miles to downtown DC, which I've cycled - it takes under an hour. It would take less time if there were fewer cars on the roads.
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby Lore » Sun 29 Apr 2012, 09:08:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'H')ow many Americans REALLY drive Hummers?

America is much more spread out than Europe, too many suburbs. America is fooked.


America is hardly the Gobi Desert. Most Americans live within ten miles of a major city. That's easily bikeable and can even be walked in a pinch. America's Eastern Seaboard is just as populated as Northern Europe. I live in a suburb of Washington DC - it's 8 miles to downtown DC, which I've cycled - it takes under an hour. It would take less time if there were fewer cars on the roads.


Which is a bit ironic since the most bicycles per capita are located in well to do Northern European countries. Not only do they have better mass transit in a smaller geographical area they travel by peddle power for the very short hops.
http://top10hell.com/top-10-countries-w ... er-capita/
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby AgentR11 » Sun 29 Apr 2012, 09:22:23

Interesting commentary in the list with regard to bike theft... I guess I kinda like the fact no one here even recognizes my bike as theft worthy! REDNECKS RULE!

Does make me think a bit what I might need to do to the configuration of the bike if theft started to become a problem.
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby SeaGypsy » Sun 29 Apr 2012, 09:26:31

Melbourne (Aus) has the best PT in the southern hemisphere AND is consistently in the top 3 cities worldwide for bicycle sales, selling more than cars for about 10 years now.
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Re: Salazar: 'No one knows' if US headed to $9/gal gas

Postby Loki » Sun 29 Apr 2012, 13:09:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
')
Only if you are playing keepin' up with the Jones'...

Mine:
Insurance: 800
Depreciation: 500
Maintenance: 1500
Taxes&Fees: 100
Gas: 1000

Total: 3900.

Step outside people's expectations and you find a whole lot of "impossible" is trivially easy.

I figure I spend ~$2300/year on both my truck and motorcycle, all expenses included except replacement costs. This assumes $4/gal gas.

If gas went up to $9/gal I'd have to shell out an additional $680/year, assuming my driving habits don't change. Not a huge deal, and much of this additional expense would be avoided by driving less, or driving my motorcycle more.

It's the rise in price of everything else that's harder to figure. Another doubling in the price of fuel would have inflationary effects across the board.
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