[Graeme]

A brilliant plan to help India achieve top spot in solar power

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen the Indian government started talking about the 100-gigawatts-by-2022 solar target, it seemed intriguing that a 600-megawatts (Mw) solar auction in Turkey last year had generated more excitement in international investor circles than this astonishing number.

One of the reasons is that the 100 gigawatts (Gw) is seen as an aspiration rather than a target.

If indeed it is a serious target, where is the action plan for implementation? Who are the investors?

What are the incentives on offer?

It is true that countries have gone from almost nil installation to 1 Gw in as little as one year – for instance, Romania – or even built many gigawatts in a single year.

China installed 12 Gw of solar last year — but it has been on the back of generous incentives.

India’s power minister Piyush Goyal has been saying that incentives would in fact be rolled back.

Renewables need to be a “self-sustained industry and not dependent on government subsidies,” he said at an industry meet last month.

India currently adds roughly 1 Gw of solar photovoltaic capacity every year.

At this rate, it would take a 100-odd years to reach the targeted installations unless the annual rollout is enhanced to 12 Gw.

Is that doable? Can India’s grid support that?

King China
China boasts the world’s largest market by installations currently, and has a stretch target of building 14 Gw of solar this year.

Given that it has added a little over a quarter of that in the first nine months of the year, there is speculation that it could slip, yielding the number one position to Japan, which is set to add anywhere from 10-12 Gw, according to our data.

China has managed to sidestep the constraints of its grid somewhat by relying on what are referred to as distribution-grid-connected projects as distinguished from transmission-grid-connected projects.

Elsewhere, the former are typically small rooftop projects, but in the case of China, most of these projects are over 1 Mw in size, and located on roofs of industrial and commercial properties.

India may be considering a similar distribution-grid-connected solution since high commercial tariffs in some states already make solar power competitive with grid power.

As much as 40 Gw of the 100 Gw are expected to come from rooftop solar projects, according to government officials.

Make-in -Brazil please
India also wants to see a competitive domestic manufacturing industry in all sectors, including solar.


The first comprehensive assessment of India’s solar resource potential yielded an impressive number – 749 Gw – which is almost three times the total power generation capacity of 255 Gw from all sources. Rajasthan emerged at the top, as expected, with solar potential of 142 Gw.

The surprise was in the state with the second highest resource – Jammu and Kashmir – which showed a potential of 111 Gw. All India needs to do is to tap 15 per cent of this potential.

[Graeme]

San Francisco Could Lead US Cities In Solar Power

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')i]Editor’s Note: This article is one submission in a live Masdar blogging contest (find out the entry requirements here). Very simply, the focus of the contest submissions is to: “Describe your city in 2030: what will occur due to changes in energy, transportation and water technologies, and how will they transform how you live?” We are sharing this submission here on CleanTechnica because we think it’s awesome and because Masdar is sponsoring CleanTechnica in order to raise awareness about this great competition. I have personally engaged in the contest in previous years, and I hope one of our readers wins this year since it would be great to meet you in Abu Dhabi!

San Francisco is a city that many people love. You can visit just once and see why. It might have something to do with the stunning views when you look north from China Town or Pacific Heights and see the bay bordered by green slopes in Marin. The varied light due to fog and bursts of clarity… the list of sensory beauty is great.

In 2010, mayor Gavin Newsom said he had an initiative that could provide 100% renewable energy for San Francisco by 2020. Newsom is no longer mayor, and it doesn’t look like the city will be able meet a 950 MW peak power demand with renewables in five years. But it could still be a leader.

[Graeme]

The World Economy Doesn’t Need Fossil Fuels To Prosper

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')way from the diplomatic circuit, however, technological advances make it certain that we can build low-carbon economies at minimal cost and great benefit to human welfare.

Solar energy reaching the earth’s surface provides 5,000 times humanity’s energy needs. The technology to capture it cost effectively and cleanly is available. Indeed, photovoltaic module prices have fallen 80% since 2008 and the best utility-scale solar projects can now produce electricity for less than $0.10 per kilowatt-hour. Optimists say that solar energy will become economical without subsidies later this decade, while pessimists put the break-even point in the 2020s. The question is when – not whether – this will occur.

Though progress on energy-storage technologies has been less dramatic, it has been sufficient to make green transport feasible. The price of lithium-ion battery packs has fallen from around $800 per kilowatt-hour in 2009 to $600 in 2014, and will likely be below $300 by 2020 and $150 by the late 2020s. Once the price is below $250, the total cost of owning and running an electric car will be less than for one with an internal combustion engine (assuming gasoline prices of $3.50 per US gallon).



The New Climate Economy report, launched by the United Nations in September, estimates that the investment required over the next 15 years will total $14 trillion. But the incremental capital costs relative to a high-carbon economy are a smaller $4 trillion, less than a third of 1% of global GDP over that period. And the maximum sacrifice of future income per capita will be no more than 1-4% of global GDP. That means that the world might have to wait, say, until December 2051 to reach the income and prosperity level that it would otherwise have achieved the preceding January.

So we do not need fossil fuels to support prosperous economies. If some extra-terrestrial thief came in the night and stole two-thirds of the planet’s coal, gas, and oil reserves, all of humanity could still enjoy the household appliances, information-technology products and services, heating, lighting, and mobility that define the modern world.

[ralfy]

RE components and infrastructure require fossil fuels for mining, manufacturing, transport, and even petrochemicals.

[Graeme]

When Clean Energy Investment Became The Big News Story Of 2014

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')sk me a year ago what my primary focus in life would be today, and even I would not have been able to foresee just how important global renewable energy investment news would become in my day-to-day work life. But my career trajectory has followed quite clearly the rise in renewable energy investment throughout 2014, and I want to take a few moments to look back on a year of global clean energy investment stories.

January

The biggest investment story to come out of January 2014 was the news from Bloomberg New Energy Finance that global clean energy investment was again down on previous years. According to figures released in the middle of January, BNEF concluded that global clean energy investment reached $254 billion in 2013, down on 2012’s $288.9 billion, and down on 2011’s record $317.9 billion.

BNEF noted in their press release that “the reduced volume of investment in 2013 reflected two main influences – a continued sharp reduction in the cost of photovoltaic systems, and the impact on investor confidence of shifts in policy towards renewable power in Europe and the US.”


November-December

With the final quarter investment numbers not due out till January of 2015, we won’t know just how big or lacklustre 2014 was, and several less-than-impressive third-quarter earnings reports from some big name solar companies might impact overall numbers, but we can only wait and see.

A few last-minute stories from the year included a new report from the Worldwatch Institute which foresaw Latin America & the Caribbean as a future location for renewable energy growth; two separate Canadian pension funds invested in renewables to the tune of $2 billion; and Norway’s state-owned power company announced that it intends to invest over $8 billion in renewable energy projects both at home and abroad.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')b]When Clean Energy Investment Became The Big News Story Of 2014

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')sk me a year ago what my primary focus in life would be today, and even I would not have been able to foresee just how important global renewable energy investment news would become in my day-to-day work life. But my career trajectory has followed quite clearly the rise in renewable energy investment throughout 2014, and I want to take a few moments to look back on a year of global clean energy investment stories.

January

The biggest investment story to come out of January 2014 was the news from Bloomberg New Energy Finance that global clean energy investment was again down on previous years. According to figures released in the middle of January, BNEF concluded that global clean energy investment reached $254 billion in 2013, down on 2012’s $288.9 billion, and down on 2011’s record $317.9 billion.

BNEF noted in their press release that “the reduced volume of investment in 2013 reflected two main influences – a continued sharp reduction in the cost of photovoltaic systems, and the impact on investor confidence of shifts in policy towards renewable power in Europe and the US.”


November-December

With the final quarter investment numbers not due out till January of 2015, we won’t know just how big or lacklustre 2014 was, and several less-than-impressive third-quarter earnings reports from some big name solar companies might impact overall numbers, but we can only wait and see.

A few last-minute stories from the year included a new report from the Worldwatch Institute which foresaw Latin America & the Caribbean as a future location for renewable energy growth; two separate Canadian pension funds invested in renewables to the tune of $2 billion; and Norway’s state-owned power company announced that it intends to invest over $8 billion in renewable energy projects both at home and abroad.

[Graeme]

T, Fission will be used especially in China but in a global context it will be only a small fraction of other renewable energy sources far into future.

[Graeme]

New York Needs to go to 100% Clean Energy by 2030

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ast week the Cuomo administration finally said no to fracking for natural gas in NYS.

Hopefully, Governor Cuomo will now embrace the goal of 100% clean renewable energy by 2030.

The fight over investing in fossil fuels is not over. There is a formal hearing on fracking that has to be conducted. There is still the struggle to stop expansion of the fossil fuels infrastructure, from the storage facilities at Seneca Lake and gas pipelines to liquified natural gas facilities off on Long Island and oil trains.

But if we are to halt runaway climate change, we must quickly transition to a carbon free economy.

The "Jacobson" study, conducted by Stanford and Cornell professors, showed that it is technologically feasible to create a 100% green energy system in New York based on renewable wind, water and solar combined with energy conservation and efficiency. This would include transportation. Some of the details need to be refined to reflect the political and physical realities on the ground in NY. But the biggest obstacle remains the political will.

This is where the Governor is critical.


The 100% clean green energy by 2030 for NYS it is not only feasible, it will also significantly improve our quality of life and economy. 4.5 million jobs would be created during the build out. Electric bills will be half of what they would be with fossil fuels. Health problems from bad air and high temperatures would be reduced. And we would create a sustainable future for our children and grandchildren.

The price tag is significant - though less than the cost of inaction. The capital investement would be over $400 billion over several decades. Most of these funds would already be spent by the private sector on the energy system; they would be redirected from fossil fuels to renewables. The rest could be paid for with a state carbon tax or other mechanisms to hold carbon polluters financially responsible for the damages they cause. (Any carbon tax should include a rebate to low and middle income consumers to offset its regressive nature.)

[Graeme]

U.S. Teeters at Turning Point for Energy

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')014 set the scene for a major turning point in energy in 2015. We’ll see how those free-falling oil prices affect how people drive and if that, in turn, will stunt use of public transportation and development of vehicles running on alternative fuels. The future of coal may be determined, just as solar power may start to spread outside California and Arizona and more deeply into places where the sun doesn’t shine every day, thanks to falling prices and new technology.

The world is pinning its hopes on renewables to help cap CO2 emissions at a level that will prevent the globe from warming 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels, the point at which the effects of climate change could spiral out of control, scientists warn. 2015 could also be the year energy policies aimed at curbing those emissions could show if they have teeth, including the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan.

Scheduled to be finalized in June barring legal challenges, the Clean Power Plan is likely to see its approval complicated by unfolding political theater that could define U.S. climate policies next year, and for many years thereafter. Aiming to slash emissions from existing coal-fired power plants, the plan sends a strong signal to utilities that natural gas and renewables are the federal government’s answer for how electric power companies should tackle climate change.

The natural gas that utilities will use to replace coal was itself the subject of a climate controversy that is likely to be a major part of any ongoing energy conversation. Most natural gas is produced using fracking, the same method energy companies use to extract the crude oil that ignited the shale oil boom of the past five years. Public health concerns associated with fracking prompted a ban in New York State, and study after study produced mounting evidence that large amounts of climate change-driving methane is leaking from both fracking operations and the natural gas distribution system leading to homes and power plants.

How those studies and low oil and gas prices will affect renewables will soon be readily apparent. Electricity generation from renewables was expected to grow by nearly 2 percent and power generation from wind, solar and biomass alone was expected to surpass hydropower production for the first time in history by the end of 2014. That growth is likely to continue.

New wind farm power generating capacity is set to double in 2015, contributing nearly 5 percent of all U.S. power generation. Though solar power is expected to account for only a tiny fraction of power generation in the New Year—about 0.6 percent—growth is nearly inevitable as prices, which have fallen about 7 percent each year since 1998, continue to decline.

[Graeme]

Solar Energy Spreading Fast, Could Meet 100% Of US Needs by 2025

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')arth Receives 10,000 Times More Solar Energy Than We Need

Just 20 years ago there were just 900,000 cell phones in the world. In the year 2000 there were 100 million. Today there are billions. According to scientists the same growth profile will occur in the use of solar power. Our ability to produce energy from solar power has been doubling every two years over the past 30 years and the price has been dropping.

According to futurist Ray Kurzweil “solar energy is only six doublings, or less than 14 years, away from meeting 100% of today’s energy needs.” He also believes that solar energy will produce more power than the entire world needs by 2035.

In a number of countries that are early adopters of solar energy, including Germany, Australia, and the Southwest United States, the price of residential solar energy has reached parity with fossil fuel based energy sources. According to scientists an investment of just $30 billion would be enough to create a solar energy infrastructure in the US that would power it indefinitely.

[Newfie]

Graeme,

Just dropping in here to rain on your parade a bit. Sorry.

The December issue of IEEE Spectrum has a piece on the defunct Google RE<C program by a couple of the engineers involved. The bottom line was that this effort was to come up with ways to promote renewable energy that would reduce us to 350ppm. Their analysis came to the conclusion that, even given their most opptomistic scenario it was impossible. Just can't get it cheap enough to under cut coal. And too many other problems related to industry, transportation, and storage.

So alternatively their solution is that all business adopt a plan that drastically increases R&D so that we can find the miracle solution. (Their words, not mine.)

Perhaps you can find it online?

ENERGIES CREATIVE DESTRUCTION
IEEE Spectrum
December, 2014

[Graeme]

You should this.

[ralfy]

The catch, as mentioned many times in this and in other threads, is that the global economy does not operate solely on electricity. Even RE components require oil for mining, manufacturing, and petrochemicals.

[Graeme]

You don't need oil if you have a 100% RE economy and that includes renewable fuels. As I pointed out earlier in this thread, once RE reaches 10%, RE growth becomes self-sustaining. Businesses are becoming more and more sustainable by minimizing impact on environment, reducing exploitation by recycling and increasing services. The goal of increasing RE to 100% is to eliminate use of FF, which is threatening all life on this planet.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'Y')ou should this.

[Graeme]

The article is a bit convoluted and confusing if you don't read it carefully but if you read the last few paragraphs, they summarize the main arguments and conclusions. Simply said they couldn't make any money from investing in R and D. It's better to deploy RE.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ottom Line: It makes very little sense that Google stopped its renewable energy R&D effort in 2011 simply because, by itself, that effort wouldn’t have taken us back to 350 ppm, since that was obvious when they launched the effort in 2007. And so, as I said, that’s probably not why they did it. The fact that they continued to spend much more money on renewable energy deployment tells you all you need to know.

Note: I did contact one of the Google authors of the IEEE paper for comment, but he referred me to the Google press office, which did not reply to my queries. Here is what Google told Fox News:

A Google spokesman told FoxNews.com that the paper simply says solar and wind won’t by themselves solve climate change, not that they were useless.

Additionally, he said that Google has invested $1.5 billion in solar, wind and other renewable energy [deployment projects].

“Renewable energy is a growing industry and critically important part of solving our future energy needs, particularly as its cost continues to decline. But we also need a multitude of approaches,” the spokesman said in an emailed statement.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'Y')ou don't need oil if you have a 100% RE economy and that includes renewable fuels. As I pointed out earlier in this thread, once RE reaches 10%, RE growth becomes self-sustaining. Businesses are becoming more and more sustainable by minimizing impact on environment, reducing exploitation by recycling and increasing services. The goal of increasing RE to 100% is to eliminate use of FF, which is threatening all life on this planet.

[Graeme]

Raify, You repeat the same issues over and over again. None of them are insurmountable. There is a worldwide trend toward all forms of sustainability. The businesses who move fastest will be the ones who survive. Businesses don't necessarily have to use more energy; they CAN use it more efficiently however and still grow. Here is a recent example of renewable energy sustainability in Mexico:

La Paz, Mexico, To Be 100% Solar Powered

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he city of La Paz, Mexico, is soon going to be powered 100% by solar energy… really. It already has a 39 megawatt solar power in place, Aura Solar I. And at the moment Grupotec is building another solar power plant that will also include battery storage.

Construction on the new solar power plant, Grupotec I, began this month. It will include 97,000 solar panels on 44 acres, with an investment of $80 million. It will have 30 megawatts of power capacity, and the battery storage facility will have 11 megawatts.

Grupotec I has a 20-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Mexican utility CFE. The price will vary based on local node prices. This is the same sort of arrangement that Aura Solar I has — it was the first in the world known to have such an arrangement.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'R')aify, You repeat the same issues over and over again. None of them are insurmountable. There is a worldwide trend toward all forms of sustainability. The businesses who move fastest will be the ones who survive. Businesses don't necessarily have to use more energy; they CAN use it more efficiently however and still grow. Here is a recent example of renewable energy sustainability in Mexico:

La Paz, Mexico, To Be 100% Solar Powered

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he city of La Paz, Mexico, is soon going to be powered 100% by solar energy… really. It already has a 39 megawatt solar power in place, Aura Solar I. And at the moment Grupotec is building another solar power plant that will also include battery storage.

Construction on the new solar power plant, Grupotec I, began this month. It will include 97,000 solar panels on 44 acres, with an investment of $80 million. It will have 30 megawatts of power capacity, and the battery storage facility will have 11 megawatts.

Grupotec I has a 20-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Mexican utility CFE. The price will vary based on local node prices. This is the same sort of arrangement that Aura Solar I has — it was the first in the world known to have such an arrangement.