[ralfy]

From what I gathered, the study looks at conditions in the U.S. It's better to look at global conditions, i.e., the bare presence of infrastructure, lack of public funds even for basic health care and housing, developed countries historically providing less than a percent of national budgets for foreign aid, and most people earning only around two or three dollars daily.

Add to that the need for developing countries to meet the needs of a growing global middle class, which means more cars, appliances, houses, etc., for a minority of the world population.

[Graeme]

You are pointing out challenges that we already know about. You don't seem to be offering solutions. What we do know is that any fossil fuel won't be part of the solutions at all.

Watch Out Fossil Fuels: Costs Continue to Drop for Solar Energy

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne of the biggest reasons I think the solar industry has an incredibly bright future is the fact that it's one of only a few energy sources (i.e., wind) that is consistently and fundamentally lowering costs.

Fossil fuels, which are the solar industry's biggest competitor, are getting more expensive to extract from the ground in the long term, and nuclear costs continue to come in higher than anyone expects, making them noncompetitive with wind or solar. What's remarkable is the pace at which solar costs are coming down.

Solar costs becoming more competitive every day
A recent report from the Solar Energy Industries Association and GTM Research called "U.S. Solar Market Insight Report Q1 2015" showed that residential systems were 9.7% less expensive than a year ago, commercial system costs were 13.1% lower, and fixed tilt utility projects were down 7.6%.

[Graeme]

Holding Back Climate Change Isn’t as Hard as You Think

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he global economy grew strongly last year without increasing greenhouse gas emissions, suggesting that government regulations, carbon markets and existing technologies are starting to bite in the battle against climate change.

In a special report to help policy makers in the run-up to a major climate conference in Paris later this year, the International Energy Agency said the past year marks the first time that it has seen a decoupling of energy use and economic growth since being created as the energy watchdog for developed countries in the 1970s.

Pledges already put forward for the Paris conference, including by the U.S., European Union and China, could hold temperature increases to 2.6 degrees Celsius. That’s significantly less of an overshoot than the 3.6-degree long-term gain in the IEA’s main scenario issued in November. The United Nations is trying to hold an increase in temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.

The IEA outlook that’s being presented Monday shows what would happen under the national pledges already set out for Paris, which at the time the report was written in May accounted for a third of global emissions. Under that outlook, the IEA sees the world economy growing 88 percent by 2030 with carbon emissions gaining just 8 percent.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')b]Holding Back Climate Change Isn’t as Hard as You Think

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he global economy grew strongly last year without increasing greenhouse gas emissions, suggesting that government regulations, carbon markets and existing technologies are starting to bite in the battle against climate change.

In a special report to help policy makers in the run-up to a major climate conference in Paris later this year, the International Energy Agency said the past year marks the first time that it has seen a decoupling of energy use and economic growth since being created as the energy watchdog for developed countries in the 1970s.

Pledges already put forward for the Paris conference, including by the U.S., European Union and China, could hold temperature increases to 2.6 degrees Celsius. That’s significantly less of an overshoot than the 3.6-degree long-term gain in the IEA’s main scenario issued in November. The United Nations is trying to hold an increase in temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.

The IEA outlook that’s being presented Monday shows what would happen under the national pledges already set out for Paris, which at the time the report was written in May accounted for a third of global emissions. Under that outlook, the IEA sees the world economy growing 88 percent by 2030 with carbon emissions gaining just 8 percent.

[Graeme]

Yes, we will be paying close attention to the UNFCCC negotiations in Paris later this year. Regardless of the outcome, investment in renewables is projected to increase substantially over the coming decades according to Bloomberg.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2030 Market Outlook Predicts a Bigger Future for Renewable Energy

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')loomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) predicts that two thirds of the world's investments in building new power generation by 2030 may go to renewable energy, as declining costs make renewable energy more competitive and attractive. A whopping $5.1 trillion of a predicted $7.7 trillion of global energy investment could be spent on renewables. The BNEF’s 2030 Market Outlook report forecasting renewable energy’s future, is based on modelling of electricity market supply and demand, technology cost evolution, policy development in individual countries, and regions.

About half of the investment predicted will be in Asia, where power capacity will grow the most - Asia will account for $2.5 trillion of the $5.1 billion investment. BNEF expects the Americas to invest $816 billion. Europe is expected to give $967 billion, while the Middle East and Africa will invest another $818 billion. The annual investment in technologies such as solar, wind and hydropower surpassed fossil fuels for the first time in 2011.

The report believes that global carbon dioxide emissions will peak by the end of next decade, before declining thanks to renewable use. Michael Liebreich, Chairman of BNEF's advisory board says, "What we are seeing is global CO2 emissions on track to stop growing by the end of next decade, with the peak only pushed back because of fast-growing developing countries, which continue adding fossil fuel capacity as well as renewables.” Fossil fuels' share of power generation will shrink to 46 percent by 2030 from 64 per cent. Coal, gas and oil-fired plants will only account for about 1,073 gigawatts and much of that will be in developing countries where power demand is growing.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'Y')ou are pointing out challenges that we already know about. You don't seem to be offering solutions. What we do know is that any fossil fuel won't be part of the solutions at all.

Watch Out Fossil Fuels: Costs Continue to Drop for Solar Energy

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne of the biggest reasons I think the solar industry has an incredibly bright future is the fact that it's one of only a few energy sources (i.e., wind) that is consistently and fundamentally lowering costs.

Fossil fuels, which are the solar industry's biggest competitor, are getting more expensive to extract from the ground in the long term, and nuclear costs continue to come in higher than anyone expects, making them noncompetitive with wind or solar. What's remarkable is the pace at which solar costs are coming down.

Solar costs becoming more competitive every day
A recent report from the Solar Energy Industries Association and GTM Research called "U.S. Solar Market Insight Report Q1 2015" showed that residential systems were 9.7% less expensive than a year ago, commercial system costs were 13.1% lower, and fixed tilt utility projects were down 7.6%.

[ROCKMAN]

ralfy - Exactly. As I just responded to you in the other post. The very conservative Texas politicians (including the gov Rick Perry) pushed wind based upon growth and not saving the planet. And as the discussion about rapid expansion of Georgetown and Austin indicates it's working...at least for now. And it could work for quite a while given our 100+ year supply of coal and our booming alt expansion. Oddly enough Texas (the largest producer of US fossil fuels) may be more prepared to handle PO then any other state and most countries IMHO.

[Graeme]

There are only two issues to watch in this thread: global economic growth and renewable energy deployment. The "IEA sees the world economy growing 88 percent by 2030 with carbon emissions gaining just 8 percent" (see above). For the first issue, it will be useful to see if the IEA's prediction is accurate (they are known to be conservative), and which sectors of the economy are growing faster. Of course we would like emissions to decline sharply over this period. This will greatly depend on the rate of deployment of renewables. I saw the following article which mentions rate:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is fair to say that the success of solar power has astonished energy analysts over the last five years. The International Energy Agency yesterday forecast that renewables will produce more power than coal within 15 years.Technically, if solar’s current rate of growth continues, its output could match world power demand in just 18 years time. From big banks such as UBS and Citigroup, to environmental groups and technology entrepreneurs, everyone is talking of a “solar revolution”. The sun has become mainstream, and the world is moving inexorably towards a future that is not only clean, but which promises to democratise energy generation.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'r')alfy - Exactly. As I just responded to you in the other post. The very conservative Texas politicians (including the gov Rick Perry) pushed wind based upon growth and not saving the planet. And as the discussion about rapid expansion of Georgetown and Austin indicates it's working...at least for now. And it could work for quite a while given our 100+ year supply of coal and our booming alt expansion. Oddly enough Texas (the largest producer of US fossil fuels) may be more prepared to handle PO then any other state and most countries IMHO.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'T')here are only two issues to watch in this thread: global economic growth and renewable energy deployment. The "IEA sees the world economy growing 88 percent by 2030 with carbon emissions gaining just 8 percent" (see above). For the first issue, it will be useful to see if the IEA's prediction is accurate (they are known to be conservative), and which sectors of the economy are growing faster. Of course we would like emissions to decline sharply over this period. This will greatly depend on the rate of deployment of renewables. I saw the following article which mentions rate:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is fair to say that the success of solar power has astonished energy analysts over the last five years. The International Energy Agency yesterday forecast that renewables will produce more power than coal within 15 years.Technically, if solar’s current rate of growth continues, its output could match world power demand in just 18 years time. From big banks such as UBS and Citigroup, to environmental groups and technology entrepreneurs, everyone is talking of a “solar revolution”. The sun has become mainstream, and the world is moving inexorably towards a future that is not only clean, but which promises to democratise energy generation.

[Graeme]

This is what the IEA said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak in emissions

The IEA proposes a bridging strategy that could deliver a peak in global energy-related emissions by 2020. A commitment to target such a near-term peak would send a clear message of political determination to stay below the 2 °C climate limit. The peak can be achieved relying solely on proven technologies and policies, without changing the economic and development prospects of any region, and is presented in a “Bridge Scenario”. The technologies and policies reflected in the Bridge Scenario are essential to secure the longterm decarbonisation of the energy sector and their near-term adoption can help keep the door to the 2 °C goal open. For countries that have submitted their INDCs, the proposed strategy identifies possible areas for over-achievement. For those that have yet to make a submission, it sets out a pragmatic baseline for ambition.

The Bridge Scenario depends upon five measures:

 Increasing energy efficiency in the industry, buildings and transport sectors.
 Progressively reducing the use of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants and banning their construction.
 Increasing investment in renewable energy technologies in the power sector from $270 billion in 2014 to $400 billion in 2030.
 Gradual phasing out of fossil-fuel subsidies to end-users by 2030.
 Reducing methane emissions in oil and gas production.

These measures have profound implications for the global energy mix, putting a brake on growth in oil and coal use within the next five years and further boosting renewables. In the Bridge Scenario, coal use peaks before 2020 and then declines while oil demand rises to 2020 and then plateaus. Total energy-related GHG emissions peak around 2020. Both the energy intensity of the global economy and the carbon intensity of power generation improve by 40% by 2030. China decouples its economic expansion from emissions growth by around 2020, much earlier than otherwise expected, mainly through improving the energy efficiency of industrial motors and the buildings sector, including through standards for appliances and lighting. In countries where emissions are already in decline today, the decoupling of economic growth and emissions is significantly accelerated; compared with recent years, the pace of this decoupling is almost 30% faster in the European Union (due to improved energy efficiency) and in the United States (where renewables contribute one-third of the achieved emissions savings in 2030). In other regions, the link between economic growth and emissions growth is weakened significantly, but the relative importance of different measures varies. India utilises energy more efficiently, helping it to reach its energy sector targets and moderate emissions growth, while the reduction of methane releases from oil and gas production and reforming fossil-fuel subsidies (while providing targeted support for the poorest) are key measures in the Middle East and Africa, and a portfolio of options helps reduce emissions in Southeast Asia. While universal access to modern energy is not achieved in the Bridge Scenario, the efforts to reduce energy related emissions do go hand-in-hand with delivering access to electricity to 1.7 billion people and access to clean cookstoves to 1.6 billion people by 2030.

[Graeme]

If renewable energy is going to be deployed rapidly over the next decade or so, we are going to need further innovation in order to do so. Here are the winners of the first round of DOE's Sunshots Catalyst Prize competition:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he 5 winners of the first round of the SunShot Initiative’s Catalyst prize competition were recently announced at a ceremony in San Francisco. The 5 winners — which were chosen out of a field of 17 finalists — were chosen based on their successful demonstrations of solar energy software solutions.

The startups demonstrated their solutions live before the crowd at the ceremony on May 14 — before receiving checks for $30,000 (each) intended to help along the path to commercialization.

Without further to do, here are the 5 aforementioned winners:

Gridmates — Leverages peer-to-peer energy sharing to combat energy poverty.
PVComplete — Offers comprehensive solar project design software for solar salespeople that is compatible with the systems used by solar energy system engineers, roofers, and contractors.
Savenia Solar Ratings — Quantifies the value of solar energy systems for homeowners and installers.
Solar Site Design — Sells qualified solar energy development projects to solar equipment manufacturers, suppliers, engineering firms, and finance companies.
UtilityAPI — Automates utility data acquisition for solar companies so they can accurately size solar energy systems for customers based on their previous electricity usage.

It should be noted here that these winners are also eligible to get up to $70,000 more (each) following the completion of product development milestones, as set via agreement with the Energy Department and the judges of the competition.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'T')his is what the IEA said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak in emissions

The IEA proposes a bridging strategy that could deliver a peak in global energy-related emissions by 2020. A commitment to target such a near-term peak would send a clear message of political determination to stay below the 2 °C climate limit. The peak can be achieved relying solely on proven technologies and policies, without changing the economic and development prospects of any region, and is presented in a “Bridge Scenario”. The technologies and policies reflected in the Bridge Scenario are essential to secure the longterm decarbonisation of the energy sector and their near-term adoption can help keep the door to the 2 °C goal open. For countries that have submitted their INDCs, the proposed strategy identifies possible areas for over-achievement. For those that have yet to make a submission, it sets out a pragmatic baseline for ambition.

The Bridge Scenario depends upon five measures:

 Increasing energy efficiency in the industry, buildings and transport sectors.
 Progressively reducing the use of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants and banning their construction.
 Increasing investment in renewable energy technologies in the power sector from $270 billion in 2014 to $400 billion in 2030.
 Gradual phasing out of fossil-fuel subsidies to end-users by 2030.
 Reducing methane emissions in oil and gas production.

These measures have profound implications for the global energy mix, putting a brake on growth in oil and coal use within the next five years and further boosting renewables. In the Bridge Scenario, coal use peaks before 2020 and then declines while oil demand rises to 2020 and then plateaus. Total energy-related GHG emissions peak around 2020. Both the energy intensity of the global economy and the carbon intensity of power generation improve by 40% by 2030. China decouples its economic expansion from emissions growth by around 2020, much earlier than otherwise expected, mainly through improving the energy efficiency of industrial motors and the buildings sector, including through standards for appliances and lighting. In countries where emissions are already in decline today, the decoupling of economic growth and emissions is significantly accelerated; compared with recent years, the pace of this decoupling is almost 30% faster in the European Union (due to improved energy efficiency) and in the United States (where renewables contribute one-third of the achieved emissions savings in 2030). In other regions, the link between economic growth and emissions growth is weakened significantly, but the relative importance of different measures varies. India utilises energy more efficiently, helping it to reach its energy sector targets and moderate emissions growth, while the reduction of methane releases from oil and gas production and reforming fossil-fuel subsidies (while providing targeted support for the poorest) are key measures in the Middle East and Africa, and a portfolio of options helps reduce emissions in Southeast Asia. While universal access to modern energy is not achieved in the Bridge Scenario, the efforts to reduce energy related emissions do go hand-in-hand with delivering access to electricity to 1.7 billion people and access to clean cookstoves to 1.6 billion people by 2030.

[ROCKMAN]

"If renewable energy is going to be deployed rapidly over the next decade..." An outstanding start: for a mere $150,000 we've begun the serious effort (in the next 10 years or so) to wean the world off of $1.8 TRILLION of oil per year, about $1 TRILLION of NG per year and about $300 BILLION in coal per year.

$150,000 vs. $3,100,000,000,000. Can't get more serious then that. LOL

[Graeme]

Raify, I know you are aware of sustainability issues. These are discussed elsewhere on this board (sustainability, circular economy, overshoot, etc). Many companies are also aware and already working on this. These challenges will get resolved eventually.

ROCK, That amount was for the first round of prizes for the DOE Sunshots Initiative. I can't tell you what total investment for innovation has gone (or will go) into all RE companies (see "Has Fracking killed RE" thread). That information is on this board somewhere (e.g. IEA World Investment Outlook 2014 thread).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')RI assets reached $6.57 trillion at the start of 2014, up from $3.74 trillion at the beginning of 2012, the US SIF Foundation revealed in its biennial "Report on US Sustainable, Responsible and Impact Investing Trends 2014." At this new level, investment strategies that integrate some form of environmental, social and governance criteria account for more than one out of every six professionally managed investment dollars in the United States. That’s nearly double what it was only two years ago.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'R')aify, I know you are aware of sustainability issues. These are discussed elsewhere on this board (sustainability, circular economy, overshoot, etc). Many companies are also aware and already working on this. These challenges will get resolved eventually.

[Quinny]

2 points

I am severely underwhelmed by the software - hardly ground breaking advances!

Think Rockman's post put's into perspective the scaling issue. $150,000 total prizes for the 5 winners seems to indicate how serious this is being taken!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ithout further to do, here are the 5 aforementioned winners:

Gridmates — Leverages peer-to-peer energy sharing to combat energy poverty.
PVComplete — Offers comprehensive solar project design software for solar salespeople that is compatible with the systems used by solar energy system engineers, roofers, and contractors.
Savenia Solar Ratings — Quantifies the value of solar energy systems for homeowners and installers.
Solar Site Design — Sells qualified solar energy development projects to solar equipment manufacturers, suppliers, engineering firms, and finance companies.
UtilityAPI — Automates utility data acquisition for solar companies so they can accurately size solar energy systems for customers based on their previous electricity usage.

[Graeme]

Q, That's just the beginning from DOE.

Wind and Solar Power Are Taking the Lead

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')am builders like to claim that hydropower is the world's largest source of renewable electricity. After a century-long head start over wind and solar power, large hydropower indeed accounted for 52 percent of the world's renewable energy capacity in 2014. But new figures from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) show that the picture is quickly changing.

The world added 132,000 megawatt of renewable energy capacity in 2014. This is roughly equal to the full power sector capacity of Canada or France. New wind power with 51,000 megawatt and new solar power with 40,000 megawatt were the biggest factors behind this spectacular growth. New large hydropower projects contributed 31,000 megawatt. These figures confirm a long-term trend: Since 2010, wind and solar power capacity has grown by a total of 313,000 megawatt -- almost four times faster than large hydropower plants.


Like the dam building industry, the World Bank explains that "hydropower is the world's largest source of renewable energy." This is a backward-looking argument. With the same justification, financiers could have argued for a continued focus on landline connections rather than mobile phones fifteen years ago. The future belongs to wind and solar power.

[Graeme]

California, Massachusetts, Oregon, Colorado, New York Lead Clean Tech

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e now have more insights into how the clean-tech economy is doing from this year’s sixth annual US Clean Tech Leadership Index. The index, prepared by Clean Edge, a research and indexing firm founded in 2000, tracks and ranks clean-tech activities in all 50 states and the largest 50 metro areas in the US. It provides a powerful tool for regional comparative research, aggregating industry data, and deep, data-driven analysis of the American clean-energy market.

[Graeme]

How The US, UK, Canada, Japan, France, Germany, & Italy Can Each Go 100% Renewable

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s you are probably well aware, the good folks at The Solutions Project have published plans for how each of the 50 states in the US could switch to 100% renewable energy. Importantly, they didn’t just paint a broad stroke — they actually looked at electricity needs by region in 15-minute segments for the entire year and matched those with the most logical renewable energy resources in the region.

What you might not know is that The Solutions Project crew (led by Mark Z Jacobson on the research end) has been doing the same thing for countries across the world.

In simplistic form, you can see what splits The Solutions Project formulated for the US, the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan in the 7 infographics below that Mark recently shared with me. Enjoy!