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Re: Another Oil price Record

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Another Record

Unread postby Eli » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 13:10:57

headed back up now.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Bas » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 13:19:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'O')il is DOWN after an unexpected fall in inventory his morning.

WTF?

Might as well not even bother using common sense in this market. All reason has been lost.

PPT? More like Gandalf and a magic wand!


apparently a lot of attention was going to the tight supplies at Cushing, which rose according to the inventory report.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 13:24:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'O')il is DOWN after an unexpected fall in inventory his morning.

WTF?

Might as well not even bother using common sense in this market. All reason has been lost.

PPT? More like Gandalf and a magic wand!


apparently a lot of attention was going to the tight supplies at Cushing, which rose according to the inventory report.


Refineries in the Oklahoma, Texas, Lousiana region apparently needed less oil last week. Some refineries may even be reducing output because of low profit margins with $99 oil. So there was less oil used last week than I expected, but inventories still fell due to falling imports (probably less from Mexico).
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Leanan » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 13:26:36

It often takes awhile for the report to sink in.

Heck, it took a whole day last week.

It's striking that oil is rising so much in a holiday week, really. Traders are usually as anxious as anyone to get out of town.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 14:16:27

The Gulf Cooperation Council is beginning the devaluation of the dollar against its currencies. This could take a week to complete. It's likely to be the push needed to get oil over $100 – unless we get some more very bad news about the mortgage credit collapse. On the later, don’t be too surprised if the news gets worse - so it may take another one or two bad weekly inventory reports to get there.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')uwait raises value of dinar vs US dollar by 0.56 pct
11.21.07, 4:53 AM ET

KUWAIT CITY (Thomson Financial) - Kuwait's central bank has raised the value of the dinar by 0.56 pct against the US dollar.

The Middle Eastern country abandoned its peg to the dollar in May, linking the dinar to a basket of currencies instead as the greenback continued to weaken.

This prolonged weakness has sparked speculation the rest of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) -- a group of oil-rich nations comprising Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar -- could abandon their dollar pegs. The UAE central bank has already said it is looking at following Kuwait's lead.


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Re: Another Record

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 14:39:29

DantesPeak said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's likely to be the push needed to get oil over $100 – unless we get some more very bad news about the mortgage credit collapse. On the later, don’t be too surprised if the news gets worse - so it may take another one or two bad weekly inventory reports to get there.


The news will get worse soon enough; the US will not be able to afford the oil that it now purchases on its Bretton Woods credit card!
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby aflurry » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 15:01:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'O')il is DOWN after an unexpected fall in inventory his morning.

WTF?

Might as well not even bother using common sense in this market. All reason has been lost.

PPT? More like Gandalf and a magic wand!


At the risk of playing contrarian to the contrarians, how does anyone assume they should be able to use common sense to predict the market? This isn't evidence that reason has been lost, it is evidence that reason was already in place.

people are trading all over the world on common sense, and all anticipated events should always already be priced in.

there's no way to say in absolute terms that a particular price is cheap or expensive. the market is the only thing that determines price. material information on public companies is all supposed to be public.

so, what people consider surprising market reactions is actually proof that it's working.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 15:57:52

aflurry said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')o, what people consider surprising market reactions is actually proof that it's working.


Is that anything like what Eli so poignantly stated: “The truth right now is that we are in the grips of a system wide global economic collapse.”

No doubt about it; it is really, really working; all the pieces that fall off are obeying gravity and rolling down hill!
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Wed 21 Nov 2007, 21:43:31

Nightly News Flash, the problem is that everyone in India and China wants a car. The current gap between supply and demand is a demand side problem. Someone even said that the fact that global economic growth was strong in the last six years proves that the problem is strictly demand side. However another premise is that demand calls for its own supply. So if there is more good oil out there to get these high prices ought to really grease the wheels of progress, to coin a phrase.

Maiar New Flash: The dollar is crashing, oil is peaking, and you cannot hide from the eyes that see. Make your wars, but an account will be required.
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby aflurry » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 14:43:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', 'S')omeone even said that the fact that global economic growth was strong in the last six years proves that the problem is strictly demand side.


sorry man, but that is incredibly silly.

supply and demand exist only in relationship to one another. if there is a demand problem, then there is a supply problem, and vice versa.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Leanan » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 15:44:09

Almost hit $99 again.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby DantesPeak » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 15:58:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'A')lmost hit $99 again.


Might have something to do with this:

CNN: Army given control in Lebanon

But then again, in view of the likely devaluation of the dollar vs. the Gulf Cooperation Council next week, plus a possible bad report next Wednesday on crude inventories, oil didn't seem inclined to drop much in price anyway.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Leanan » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 16:03:33

No $100 oil yet, but it was a record close:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il futures resumed their march toward $100 a barrel Friday, rising to a new record close in light holiday trading on concerns about tight heating oil supplies while also drawing support from a buoyant stock market.

...Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose 89 cents to settle at $98.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, besting the previous settlement record by 15 cents, while December heating oil futures rose 1.68 cents to settle at $2.7042 a gallon after earlier setting a new trading record of $2.7181 a gallon.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Fri 23 Nov 2007, 17:25:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'N')o $100 oil yet, but it was a record close:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il futures resumed their march toward $100 a barrel Friday, rising to a new record close in light holiday trading on concerns about tight heating oil supplies while also drawing support from a buoyant stock market.

...Light, sweet crude for January delivery rose 89 cents to settle at $98.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, besting the previous settlement record by 15 cents, while December heating oil futures rose 1.68 cents to settle at $2.7042 a gallon after earlier setting a new trading record of $2.7181 a gallon.


So, we still managed to eke out another record close, eh? And on a Thanksgiving Friday at that.

Incredible!
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 20:25:53

Starting the new week at $98.50.

Possible positives today - the ECB may make a major infusion of new funds this week, as more problems related to the collapse of the US mortgage backed securities market are revealed. That is - more money creates more inflation.

Possible negative - Lebanon and Pakistan look calmer than last Friday.

Unknown as of yet - projected oil & product inventory situation in the US.


Edit ECB information:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he mounting troubles in lending markets prompted the European Central Bank to say Friday that it will pump in extra funds through the turn of the year, if necessary. Tomorrow, the ECB is expected to supply more than the usual amount of short-term loans to euro-area banks during its weekly refinancing operation, following an operation Thursday in which it provided an added €60 billion in three-month loans. The central bank uses the increase or decrease of funding to keep the rates that banks charge one another for short-term loans close to its 4% target.


WSJ
Last edited by DantesPeak on Sun 25 Nov 2007, 22:29:47, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 21:33:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'S')tarting the new week at $98.50.

Possible positives today - the ECB may make a major infusion of new funds, as more problems related to the collapse of the US mortgage backed securities market are revealed. That is - more money creates more inflation.

Possible negative - Lebanon and Pakistan look calmer than last Friday.

Unknown as of yet - projected oil & product inventory situation in the US.


Yep. Trading on the upward trend. We're at $98.77.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 25 Nov 2007, 21:54:42

$98.90. Scratching away at the ceiling...
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Leanan » Mon 26 Nov 2007, 09:04:26

Broke $99 again last night.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Zardoz » Mon 26 Nov 2007, 12:19:24

Now it's dropping again. A hundred bucks is a tough pychological barrier. We could get well into 2008 before NYMEX crude settles above three digits and stays there.

It will, of course. It's just a matter of time.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 26 Nov 2007, 12:44:18

Somthing is causing people to sell when it hits a certain number. Profit takers
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