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Credit crunch impacts on production

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Fri 22 Jan 2010, 21:22:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Velociryx', 'I') guess these day's they're a somewhat endangered species, here FIVE YEARS after peak (per TOD), and no mass die-off yet.


I'm a regular reader of TOD and that is most decidedly NOT the opinion over there except for possibly a very small minority of participants.


Nobody needs TOD. Ruppert, Deffeyes and Simmons are good enough references for PO 2005 for me. TOD seems to officially favor 2008.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 23 Jan 2010, 00:04:36

Image

+++ Ze link +++
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count Rises to 11-Month High
By Margot Habiby

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Oil and natural-gas rigs operating in the U.S. jumped to an 11-month high as gas rigs climbed for a fourth consecutive week, according to data published by Baker Hughes Inc.

The combined oil and gas rig count increased by 2.7 percent to 1,282, Baker Hughes said today on its Web site. The 34-rig increase was the largest since March 2008. The combined count rose to a 22-year high in 2008, peaking at 2,031. It has risen 46 percent from the 2009 low of 876 on June 12.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 23 Jan 2010, 01:12:56

To summarize...not only did we find 15 years of global oil supply this afternoon, but we're still knocking out those wells in the US to continue our glut of natural gas, and maybe finding some more oil of our own!!!

This plenty and abundance thing is getting out of hand!!
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby Velociryx » Sat 23 Jan 2010, 10:49:59

@Airline Pilot - Gods but you're a tedious little fellow. Okay, I'll take it from the top, tho I feel as though I'm talking to someone who's read Marx and suddenly thinks its the greatest thing since sliced bread, with absolutely NO understanding of economics to back it up. Needless to say, convincing such a person of anything is nigh on impossible, but we'll give it a go:

I began posting in this thread on page 23, where I responded to FL's hypothesis that because some gas stations in BFE Nebraska had (maybe) run out of fuel, it a) pointed to PO and b) pointed to a vast corporate-governmental conspiracy (and may well point to "teh end of dayz!!!")

You responded to me (by name...normally I would not mention this, but given your tedious nature and tendency to twist in the wind, I figured I'd underscore the point that I am not "falsely assuming meaning where none exist." You responded to me BY NAME, and started yammering on about the dire shortages in the US (then attempted to support that with articles talking about people being priced out of the market in third world countries, etc).

Then, in your latest post, (Jan 23, 9:50AM) (also pointed at me...note the quote at the top of the page), you say something very interesting:

"To refute it is folly, its already happened!" ("it" being the behavior of oil prices based on the recession).

This implies that somewhere in my posts, I have refuted this, or at least attempted to. - again, this isn't me "falsely assuming meaning where none exists"...this is me using simple LOGIC (something that's fairly uncommon in these parts, I know) and basic conversation skills to follow the threads of an online conversation...

I would like for you to quote me and show me where, precisely, I am supposed to have attempted a refutation of the (latest) point you're attempting to make.

If you cannot, then I submit that your "explanation of why I've been posting what I've been posting" post is as contradictory and meaningless and full of BS as the rest of them (to say nothing of the fact that it's a demonstrable straw man).

My "modus operandi" has been to call you on your contradictions, and poke fun at a hypothesis mentioned on page twenty-three.

That's all.

I don't take this place, or these threads seriously, and I don't particularly worry if you trolls label me a "corny" or whatever. I already know that your beliefs are so firmly entrenched that EVEN IF we found a way to produce unlimited oil in a lab tomorrow, it wouldn't matter. You'd just scurry off to some other topic to preach the gospel of doom about. No...I'm sorry...YOU don't preach doom.

What was it....

You preach that: "...it will be a slow grind down, not doom, but more of a long term problematic existence with higher prices and the inability to grow our economies moving forward. With an entire modern industrial foundation based on growth due to plentiful and CHEAP oil, it points to problems going forward. Possibly some big ones, but probably lots of small ones which make life harder and could..notice I said COULD, lead to occasional emergencies if certain political, or natural occurrences cause specific crisis.

I count five qualifiers in that paragraph alone...that's pretty impressive! It's like the Politically Correct PO Position! :lol:

So maybe, possibly...you know...at some point in the future, there MIGHT BE a few problems (maybe big, but most likely little), that COULD lead to some OCCASSIONAL shortages, IF certain conditions are met on top of the fact of PO.

That's awesome!

Anyway, I'll wait right here and see if you can find someplace where I refuted the basic, common sense economics (that I don't think anyone could or would refute)...that should be a kick.

And in the meantime, I'll ponder YOUR latest mischaracherization of our positions, that we "...deny we have any problems at all."

:)

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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 29 Jan 2010, 23:15:08

Up, up, and away!

Image

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]U.S. Oil Rig Count Rises to Highest Level Since 1993
By Margot Habiby

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rigs operating in the U.S. increased this week to the highest level in 16 years as drilling rose in Texas and the Dakotas, according to data published by Baker Hughes Inc.

Oil rigs rose by seven to 444, the highest level since the week ended Dec. 17, 1993. The count has more than doubled since June, when it bottomed out at 179.

“With oil in the $70 to $80 range, it’s very economical for operators to be drilling oil wells,” said Gene Shiels, assistant director of investor relations at Baker Hughes. “We’re really seeing it in two places, in the Permian Basin in Texas, where the wells are pretty shallow, and in the Williston basin, also known as the Bakken basin, in the Dakotas.”

Oil and natural gas rigs in Texas, the state with more active rigs than any other, rose by 10 to 538. It had 320 in June. North Dakota, which ranks fourth in rigs behind Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma, added three this week to 75. Its rigs have more than doubled from 33 in May.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby careinke » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 12:18:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').S. Oil Rig Count Rises to Highest Level Since 1993


Cool!! That must mean the US is now producing more oil than it was producing in 1993. After all, more rigs mean more oil...........NOT.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 16:44:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').S. Oil Rig Count Rises to Highest Level Since 1993
Cool!! That must mean the US is now producing more oil than it was producing in 1993. After all, more rigs mean more oil...........NOT.

OR, they're getting everything out there that they can trying to find every drop!
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 17:25:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').S. Oil Rig Count Rises to Highest Level Since 1993


Cool!! That must mean the US is now producing more oil than it was producing in 1993. After all, more rigs mean more oil...........NOT.


Considering most of that drilling is for gas , it doesn't seem like much of a surprise that they aren't finding....oil? 8O
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 22:00:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'C')onsidering most of that drilling is for gas , it doesn't seem like much of a surprise that they aren't finding....oil? 8O

Actually, that article was *just* about oil rigs.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 22:43:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'C')onsidering most of that drilling is for gas , it doesn't seem like much of a surprise that they aren't finding....oil? 8O

Actually, that article was *just* about oil rigs.


What about this?

"The total rig count rose by 35, or 2.7 percent, to 1,317, an 11-month high. Most of the increase came from gas rigs, which gained 28, or 3.4 percent, to 861. They have risen for five consecutive weeks."
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 22:47:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '&')gt;>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]U.S. Oil Rig Count Rises to Highest Level Since 1993
By Margot Habiby

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rigs operating in the U.S. increased this week to the highest level in 16 years as drilling rose in Texas and the Dakotas, according to data published by Baker Hughes Inc.

Oil rigs rose by seven to 444, the highest level since the week ended Dec. 17, 1993. The count has more than doubled since June, when it bottomed out at 179.

[...]

Then careinke replied directly to that article with:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'C')ool!! That must mean the US is now producing more oil than it was producing in 1993. After all, more rigs mean more oil...........NOT.

Then you told her that included gas rigs. But that's not what he/she was replying to.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 23:56:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '&')gt;>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]U.S. Oil Rig Count Rises to Highest Level Since 1993
By Margot Habiby

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rigs operating in the U.S. increased this week to the highest level in 16 years as drilling rose in Texas and the Dakotas, according to data published by Baker Hughes Inc.

Oil rigs rose by seven to 444, the highest level since the week ended Dec. 17, 1993. The count has more than doubled since June, when it bottomed out at 179.

[...]

Then careinke replied directly to that article with:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'C')ool!! That must mean the US is now producing more oil than it was producing in 1993. After all, more rigs mean more oil...........NOT.

Then you told her that included gas rigs. But that's not what he/she was replying to.


I see.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby Velociryx » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 00:47:59

Hey Airline PIlot...it's been a week...how's the search for that quote coming?

;)

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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 01:29:19

^
And when I was looking for the AP quote you were referring to, I noticed AP said this [bold emphasis mine]:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '[')...]

My premise was proven true and as has been the case in the past, when production is curtailed in such a fashion usually it does not come back 100% when economic conditions get better. I submit this IS what happened and while higher crude prices are causing a rebound in production as of late, we still have issues which tend to support that premise that we are STILL having problems with investment in this sector along with all other aspects of the economy. I grant that the higher crude prices are HELPING but we have yet to see production rebound to similar levels yet. I admit that this can and may happen, but only with the right economic signals.

[...]

It just so happens that, yes indeed, world crude oil production *has* rebounded to levels similar to that which we saw before the credit crunch began.

Click here:
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/jan2010_fig1.png

And if you count all-liquids, the results are even clearer.

Image

Source
So, a year-and-a-half after the collpase of Lehman Brothers and the world economy, credit crunch impacts on production are barely even noticable, if not non-existant. As I said earlier in this thread, the "production will be curtailed by the credit crunch" argument was - and still is - a Big Fat Nothing.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 02:14:36

Thats one of the best charts Ive seen to show the recent peak and obvious plateau we are currently struggling to maintain.

Thanks for posting it.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 03:12:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'T')hats one of the best charts Ive seen to show the recent peak and obvious plateau we are currently struggling to maintain.

Thanks for posting it.


I agree. Except for the struggling part....lets face it, maintaining production for 5 years like that has required a solid 2 new Saudi Arabia's to make up for claimed field declines, and those 2 new Saudi Arabia's haven't joined OPEC yet.

Will the 2 new Saudi Arabia's please step forward and tell us if you struggled to reverse field decline....or.....struggled to stay hidden for 5 years! :-D
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 16:59:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '[')b]Will the 2 new Saudi Arabia's please step forward and tell us if you struggled to reverse field decline....or.....struggled to stay hidden for 5 years! :-D


Excuse me? What "two new Saudi Arabias?

If you are referring to the recent discoveries they have exactly NO resemblance to Saudi Arabian oil fields.

And for the record, the facts do not support that we are back at production levels seen previously. There is no proof other than conjecture that it will go above those numbers. Using All liquids is also nothing more than an intentional obfuscation.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 19:17:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'A')nd for the record, the facts do not support that we are back at production levels seen previously. There is no proof other than conjecture that it will go above those numbers. Using All liquids is also nothing more than an intentional obfuscation.

Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 20:11:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '[')b]Will the 2 new Saudi Arabia's please step forward and tell us if you struggled to reverse field decline....or.....struggled to stay hidden for 5 years! :-D


Excuse me? What "two new Saudi Arabias?


Excuse me? Have you forgotten about field decline?

85 MBO/Day * 0.93 * 0.93 * 0.93 * 0.93 * 0.93 * 0.93 = 59 MBO/Day....leaving the difference since 2005 peak at 26 million barrels a day short...HOLY CRAP!! THATS NEARLY 3 SAUDI ARABIA's!!!! :-D

Hey...if you can't find those 3 Saudi Arabia's I can't blame you, I can't find them either. Blame it on whichever "expert" said that field declines are 7% a year. Wasn't that some hobbyist organization like the IEA? :lol:

Certainly it can't be explained by the MegaFields list.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')Using All liquids is also nothing more than an intentional obfuscation.


Perhaps you should post over at TOD and tell them to stop? Seems like they use total liquids as much as they do conventional only....but in either case....it doesn't explain the phantom 3 Saudi Arabia's.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 04 Feb 2010, 00:21:19

TOD has done a very good job explaining the difference between "all liquids" and Oil production alone. I see no problem there and I also completely understand that when a poster who argues against PO uses total liquids they are doing so from an intentionally misleading position. Happens all the time.

Im still not sure what you are talking about with regards to new SA's??? There is no defined global oil decline picture yet, even I can acknowledge that.

Global oil production is below the last high point from mid 2008. Are we disputing this fact?? Anyone? OF, that chart shows a trend, a trend ONLY, it does not support any factual basis for saying production is at or near where it was in 2008. Just trying to figure out your point there...it is not a successful rebuttal of the facts. Thought I'd point that out for you since obviously in the posting of that graph you feel it is. Or am i missing something?
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