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Credit crunch impacts on production

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 20 Jan 2010, 01:38:48

There are NUMEROUS gasoline/deisel and NG shortages taking place right now around the globe. You guys are more than capable of doing the research on your own I wont do it for you.
Most of those shortages are due to the inability of local areas to afford the price. Period.

Shortages due to just in time practices AND low inventory OUTSIDE OF NATURAL disasters is what led to the shortage I experienced last summer. It had NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE outside of the immediate zone of Hurricane damage. You have your theory and i have mine.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 20 Jan 2010, 01:40:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
We are talking about actual shortages due to a lack of geologic supply.....the central component to peak oil ( any one of them ).


Once again you show your almost complete misunderstanding of what PO means in both economic and social terms. I give up.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 20 Jan 2010, 02:15:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'T')here are NUMEROUS gasoline/deisel and NG shortages taking place right now around the globe. You guys are more than capable of doing the research on your own I wont do it for you.
Most of those shortages are due to the inability of local areas to afford the price. Period.


Exactly. It has nothing to do with actual supply. If you happen to live in Zimbabwe, and are the victim of bad political decisions, you don't get to claim that because your political leaders screwed you into the ground its peak oils fault that there isn't any fuel you can afford.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')Shortages due to just in time practices AND low inventory OUTSIDE OF NATURAL disasters is what led to the shortage I experienced last summer. It had NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE outside of the immediate zone of Hurricane damage. You have your theory and i have mine.


Just in time inventory has been going on since about the time the US peaked, and what you experienced last summer is the natural and completely predictable result of hoarding, a condition which itself was caused by hurricane damage at the other end of the pipeline you depend on for your gasoline supply. The cause was still the hurricane....just because you happened to live at the OTHER end of the pipe doesn't mean you weren't affected by the root cause.

And it isn't a theory...we've already provided the relevant links.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 20 Jan 2010, 02:20:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
We are talking about actual shortages due to a lack of geologic supply.....the central component to peak oil ( any one of them ).


Once again you show your almost complete misunderstanding of what PO means in both economic and social terms. I give up.


Really? Here's the Father Of Peak Oils oft sited work, and don't take my word for it, here is the lead in from the Energy Bulletin:

"Of course a lot of the details are very dated, but this is the paper which gave rise to the concept of Peak Oil."

Please reference his comments on the economic and social effects which you believe are most relevant to the conversation.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/13630

As Oil has pointed out, on topic comments to his thoughts on the relationship to credit crunch would be most applicable, but if somehow you can weave the seminal work on peak oil into economic and social issues related to the credit crunch as well, I'm sure that would be relevant.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby TheDude » Wed 20 Jan 2010, 06:23:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'R')eally? Here's the Father Of Peak Oils oft sited work


They used Hubbert's work for architectural plats? Far out.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 20 Jan 2010, 15:14:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'R')eally? Here's the Father Of Peak Oils oft sited work


They used Hubbert's work for architectural plats? Far out.


Grammar/Spelling/Vocabulary insults! I like it!

I wouldn't want to pull an economic/social claim out of Hubberts seminal paper either! :-D
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 20 Jan 2010, 22:52:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'M')ost of those shortages are due to the inability of local areas to afford the price. Period.

Under this bizarre theory, there is also a worldwide shortage of Coach handbags, Mercedes-Benz cars and Martin guitars just because some people can't afford the price.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

God you are desperate. :lol: :P
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 01:22:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'S')upporting my previous premise.... Even with the larger rebound in crude price we still have the lingering effects of low crude prices last year. link
It says "return of oil shortages".
What oil shortages? The last oil shortages caused by actual lack of oil was like during the embargo's and such of the 70's.....are they talking about those ones?

Actually, those 70's era "shortages", at least in the U.S., were largely caused because our stupid government limited the price of gasoline. Thus, the economic law of supply and demand wasn't allowed to operate. (You mentioned the embargos. There certainly was no GEOLOGIC shortage whatsoever).

Notice how this time around, aside from isolated weather events, there have been NO actual shortages, at least in the U.S.?

(OK, I'm now awaiting flames from the left about how this simple obesrvation means I hate the poor. No, I don't, I'm just making an observation about economic reality and its impact on gasoline shortages).
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 01:54:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'A')ctually, those 70's era "shortages", at least in the U.S., were largely caused because our stupid government limited the price of gasoline. Thus, the economic law of supply and demand wasn't allowed to operate. (You mentioned the embargos. There certainly was no GEOLOGIC shortage whatsoever).
Quite true...it was a basic idiot shortage. However, Airline keeps bringing up a natural disaster shortage and pretending its meaningful somehow in a peak oil context...it really isn't, any more than an idiot shortage ( my example being Zimbabwe ).$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Out_Cast Searcher', 'N')otice how this time around, aside from isolated weather events, there have been NO actual shortages, at least in the U.S.?
Absolutely. PO +5 has been a pretty big letdown for something which was supposed to stop WalMart trucks from running within a matter of days ( reference provided upon request ).
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutCast_Searcher', '(')OK, I'm now awaiting flames from the left about how this simple obesrvation means I hate the poor. No, I don't, I'm just making an observation about economic reality and its impact on gasoline shortages).
No such flames from me. Those who claimed, circa 2005, that PO was going to be a rerun of the 70's and early 80's style recession and global peak oils have been pretty spot on....its really only the more extreme views which have taken a pretty heavy beating since the most recent PO.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby Ferretlover » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 10:06:07

Was it Nebraska?... Somewhere in the Midwest there were gas statiions closed for lack of fuel in the last year or two.. Dang it, I can't remember where.
But, think about it.
*Hypothetical*: If you were responsible for supplying the gas for the entire nation, and you didn't have enough at times, what would you do?
Would you broadcast it all over the place, or, would you try to redistribute it, given the limited ability of truck & pipeline, and hope that no-one freaked out and caused a panic?
Since fuel is obviously figures into national security, what guidelines might you have as the supplier?

This is similar to all those people and companies holding properties. Would you draw attention to the worst attributes of the property, or, just keep quiet and hope you can unload the place before anyone noticing current and future problems?
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby Velociryx » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 15:02:15

:shock:

Okay, somebody revoke FL's right to EVER poke fun at any "Corny" who raises the possibility of a conspiracy.

EVER.

Dude, seriously?

So, a couple of years ago, some gas stations in BFE Nebraska ran dry, and rather than thinking..."OH! Katrina maybe?" the IMMEDIATE HYPOTHESIS raised is that it must be a vast conspiracy between the multitude of trucking companies that are contracted to haul fuel all over the nation, the oil companies AND the government (man, we'll need a new department, for sure, just to make sure all these guys stay silent!).

Gotta be that.

I've heard of creative interpretation of events before, sure. It's a nice way to make sure that the conclusions reached neatly square with whatever your accepted beliefs are, but THIS takes it to a new level!

Seriously, that's art!

[smilie=adora.gif]

-=Vel=-
(this thread just got a whole lot more entertaining!)
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby Ferretlover » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 15:27:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Velociryx', ':')shock: Okay, somebody revoke FL's right to EVER poke fun at any "Corny" who raises the possibility of a conspiracy. EVER.

You need to work on it more--so it doesn't sound like you Really believe it! :lol:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ude, seriously?
That would be Dudette, and probably old enough to be your mother! :lol:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o, a couple of years ago, some gas stations in BFE Nebraska ran dry, and rather than thinking..."OH! Katrina maybe?" the IMMEDIATE HYPOTHESIS raised is that it must be a vast conspiracy between the multitude of trucking companies that are contracted to haul fuel all over the nation, the oil companies AND the government (man, we'll need a new department, for sure, just to make sure all these guys stay silent!).Gotta be that.

You think tooooo linear! And, too narrowly! How does the acquistion of credit to run a business affect all those who derive some service or benefit from that credit? And, what happens when credit is cut back or refused?
And, what would be the reaction of people who could not get gas over a short period (weeks or months) and those who could no longer get it at all?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve heard of creative interpretation of events before, sure. It's a nice way to make sure that the conclusions reached neatly square with whatever your accepted beliefs are, but THIS takes it to a new level! Seriously, that's art!

Thank you, thank you very much! LOL
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 15:31:11

The banks and the Government have been doing it for over a year now Velociryx.

Wake up.

Look up "housing shadow inventory" and go find out which banks still don't have to mark the real value of their assets to any market presently.

:roll:
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 15:32:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'T')hat would be Dudette, and probably old enough to be your mother! :lol:


:P
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby Velociryx » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 15:46:10

:lol:

@ FL - Unless you're in your 70's, I'm doubting the age statement. ;)

@ Airline Pilot - you score many more points for the other side and they're gonna kick you off the team!

You guys are fun. :)

-=Vel=-
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 15:49:40

For the Cornies in the crowd...spent maybe five minutes searching global news....I'm sure I can come up with a LOT MORE OF THIS WITH SOME WORK...but Im not going to bother.

You guys are not worth the effort. Keep burying your head in that nice comfortable sand.

http://www.liberianobserver.com/node/4100

http://allafrica.com/stories/200912300622.html

http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2010 ... 901265.txt

"The massive snowstorm that buried much the East Coast last month caused scattered fuel shortages from Virginia to Connecticut, according to the Associated Press."

Maine anecdotal....My brother who lives in Saco, ME said that his supplier had several days where they could not get sufficient supplies for deliveries and they had to ration fuel. Saco, Biddeford and some of the local towns there just south of Portland. He hs been there for almost 20 years and DOES NOT EVER REMEMBER A SUPPLY ISSUE.



http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/M ... /story.csp

"Scarcity and high cost of fuel(link just above)

Trailer drivers who bring in food stuff such as tomatoes, pepper, onions and beans said it is difficult to get fuel and had to increase their charges because of the high price of fuel."

GO ahead and make some ignorant remark explaining it away.

There were other shortages in Pakistan, Malawi and several other places within the last two months....Im just too lazy to find the links.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby Velociryx » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 16:14:01

Ohhhhhhhhkay then!

Somehow we went from talking about shortages in the US (ref: the mention of Nebraska (which I believe is still part of the US...forgive me tho, I AM admittedly just a redneck from South Carolina...that g'ograffy stuff isn't our strong suit!), reinforced by YOU tying in the US Housing inventory, US banks, and the government--none of these, I'm sorry to say, have anywhere near the level of direct influence you seem to think they must on countries like Kenya, referenced in your later links...when you shifted the argument away from the US and to a collection of 3rd world countries, who...(and this is shocking, and TRULY evidenciary of a conspiracy) are a) already among the poorer nations of the world, b) reeling from a long, deep global recession, and c) therefore are struggling to pay for ANYTHING (yes...including fuel!).

No one has EVER said that as prices rise, the poorest people (this typically starts in the poorest COUNTRIES) begin to get priced out of the market. Or, in simpler terms, as price goes up, people with less money can't afford as much stuff.

I realize that in your mind, the ONLY POSSIBLE EXPLANATION for this is that...here we go, repeat after me:

WEARERUNNINGOUTOFOILANDALLABOUTTODIE!

But the sad truth is that it's a bit more complicated with that.

I am sorry it doesn't square with your...shall we say, "unique" worldview, but there it is, just the same.

What this has to do with anything, I'm not quite sure, but I'm fairly certain you'll be along in a bit to "wake me up" further, with some additional pealrs of wisdom. :)

-=Vel=-

PS: the one US based article you cited specifically says that the truckers' hours were being increased to counter (from the article):

"...hang-ups developing with the logistics of these delivery systems"

(this says nothing about insufficient supplies--ie, we are not "running out of oil"...rather, the delivery systems are borked...a problem, yes! But a very different one from the picture you are attempting to paint).

As to the anecdotal evidence - we can play that parlor game all day long, if you wanna...

back to work with me now...
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 16:31:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Velociryx', 'A')s to the anecdotal evidence - we can play that parlor game all day long, if you wanna... back to work with me now...
Things might look worse when/if you lose your paying work. 8O

Our own anecdotal evidence tends to weigh heavily on our outlook.
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 21:10:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'F')or the Cornies in the crowd...spent maybe five minutes searching global news....I'm sure I can come up with a LOT MORE OF THIS WITH SOME WORK...but Im not going to bother.

You guys are not worth the effort. Keep burying your head in that nice comfortable sand.

http://www.liberianobserver.com/node/4100

http://allafrica.com/stories/200912300622.html

http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2010 ... 901265.txt


I read all three.

I didn't see in any of them where lack of geologic supply mattered at all? They were all supply CHAIN problems, some hoarding, and a smidge of slower than expected deliveries ( being compensated for by extra truck driving time to distribute the fuel ).

Not a peak oil in sight, and no different than the problems you experienced when electricity wasn't available to run the main pipe from the Gulf Coast to Virginia.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('airlinepilot', '
')Maine anecdotal....My brother who lives in Saco, ME said that his supplier had several days where they could not get sufficient supplies for deliveries and they had to ration fuel. Saco, Biddeford and some of the local towns there just south of Portland. He hs been there for almost 20 years and DOES NOT EVER REMEMBER A SUPPLY ISSUE.


I was once at a gas station that had a bad pump handle, and in 20 years that pump had never had a broken handle before! It must be peak oil!

Come on Airline, are you kidding?
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Re: Credit crunch impacts on production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 21 Jan 2010, 22:20:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'F')or the Cornies in the crowd...spent maybe five minutes searching global news....I'm sure I can come up with a LOT MORE OF THIS WITH SOME WORK...but Im not going to bother.
You guys are not worth the effort. Keep burying your head in that nice comfortable sand. [url=http://www.liberianobserver.com/node/4100]link

Breaking news AP: Liberia is a Objectionable text deleted. poor nation. Lots of people there - if not most people there - could not afford oil when it was $1 barrel. Nor does anyone want to invest much in oil infrastructure in such a Objectionable text deleted. poor, chaotic nation. Same when oil was $1 barrel.

FAIL #1.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '[')url=http://allafrica.com/stories/200912300622.html]link

Breaking news AP: Kenya is a Objectionable text deleted.-poor nation. Lots of people there - if not most people there - could not afford oil when it was $1 barrel. Nor does anyone want to invest much in oil infrastructure in such a Objectionable text deleted.-poor, chaotic nation. Same when oil was $1 barrel.

FAIL #2.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', ' ')link
Propane and heating fuel. In case you haven't been paying attention to the weather, it's been damn cold and snowy in PA recently. Being surprised at shortages of heating oil in a state where a lot of people heat their homes with oil, during a bout of severe winter weather, is like being surprised over shortages of Gatorade during a heat wave. That does not mean we are near "Peak Gatorade." :lol:

FAIL #3.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '&')quot;The massive snowstorm that buried much the East Coast last month caused scattered fuel shortages from Virginia to Connecticut, according to the Associated Press."
Maine anecdotal....My brother who lives in Saco, ME said that his supplier had several days where they could not get sufficient supplies for deliveries and they had to ration fuel. Saco, Biddeford and some of the local towns there just south of Portland. He hs been there for almost 20 years and DOES NOT EVER REMEMBER A SUPPLY ISSUE.
See above reply. Also, considering how many roads are snowed over, and how difficult it is for many delivery trucks to traverse said snowed-over roads, one should not be surprised that some people are having trouble getting their heating fuel supplies.

FAIL #4.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', ' ') link "Scarcity and high cost of fuel(link just above)

Trailer drivers who bring in food stuff such as tomatoes, pepper, onions and beans said it is difficult to get fuel and had to increase their charges because of the high price of fuel."

GO ahead and make some ignorant remark explaining it away. There were other shortages in Pakistan, Malawi and several other places within the last two months....Im just too lazy to find the links. Nigeria. See replies above about Liberia and Kenya. FAIL #5.

You are also forgetting about possible currency exchange rate issues. If a nation's currency tumbles in value, and they depend on lots of imported oil, their price of oil will go up. It's got nothing to do with shortages.

That may not be the case in Nigeria since they have lots of their own oil (though I've got a sneaky feeling they import lots of refined products), but it is likely to explain a lot of other cases of rising fuel prices.
Last edited by copious.abundance on Thu 21 Jan 2010, 23:14:10, edited 1 time in total.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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