[Velociryx]

But of course, Master Oily!

And EVEN IF we accept that the estimates of OPEC's (and the rest of the world's) spare capacity don't constitute a potential all time high level of production (and even by AP's own more conservative math, it must), thus refuting his own argument,

but EVEN IF we discount that argument completely, it still does not change the fact that:

"we aren't back at production levels we've seen before" (clearly we have, as evidenced by his own FREAKIN graph)

IS NOT THE SAME THING as

"we have not yet reached a new all time high" (clearly we haven't, and no one said we had...nor would they ever)

so yet again, we see AP twisting in the wind...when one of his points gets proved wrong, rather than manning up and admitting it, he simply moves the goal post.

Same as it was last week, when I first called him on it and asked for that quote, and here it is again.

-=Vel=-

Not. The. Same.

[AirlinePilot]

You guys are good! I give you that, playing a nice tag team.

The bottom line is that we are just now coming back to levels which just reach the low points on our plateau since 2005.
As I've said a million times in here already, I'd expect that given rising crude prices.

Your making mountains out of mole hills, have at it.

[Velociryx]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'Y')ou guys are good! I give you that, playing a nice tag team.

The bottom line is that we are just now coming back to levels which just reach the low points on our plateau since 2005.
As I've said a million times in here already, I'd expect that given rising crude prices.

Your making mountains out of mole hills, have at it.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Velociryx', 'T')he fact is, using YOUR OWN GRAPH, what you said initially "we aren't back at production levels we've seen before" is patently...demonstrably not true.

[Velociryx]

Dang...went to bed and missed this last night.

Yes. Patently, demonstrably not true.

YOUR chart.

It became your chart when you modified it to suit your own purposes talking to Oily (right down to the small detail of giving it a new filename).

It is, in fact, a slightly more up to date version of the very SAME chart you just re-posted above. All the same data's there, 'cept the newer chart trends slightly higher on the right side, on account of...well, output being higher.

But we could do the same thing for this graph. Draw a little red line going across where the current production was in it, then adding little dots along all the points (six of them, instead of nine on the newer) showing that again, we're back to "previously seen levels of production" if you'd like.

-=Vel=-

[AirlinePilot]

Truly a corny viewpoint Vel, have at it. You'll still be wrong in the world of facts.

[Velociryx]

I'm not sure what you mean. Are you now saying that the chart you just reposted is also incorrect? Cos according to it, we've seen these "similar levels of production" six different times over the last few years. (the number increases to nine if you use the more recent graph...but you don't need me to tell you this. You can pull out paint, draw your OWN horizontal line and plot the points for yourself...you know, in case you think I'm doing anything nefarious or shifty with the graph.

I don't get it AP...it's as plain as both graphs you posted, and yet, somehow, you STILL manage to invent your very own fantasy conclusion.

Tell me...when YOU look at that graph...can you not see the six points I referenced?

Do you not see that, by the fact of their existence, it proves your initial statement INCORRECT?

Do you not see that current production, plus your own conservative estimates on spare capacity = record setting potential production? (which proves your revised point also INCORRECT)

It is, after all, in your own words, "simple math."

What's there to disagree with?

-=Vel=-

PS: If it is a "corny viewpoint" to look at the data and see what it's telling me, rather than trying frantically to twist and morph it into something that neatly fits with my belief system and the conclusions I've already reached, then yes...yes, I suppose it IS a "corny viewpoint."

On the other hand, you're the one coming off as rather corny just now...

[Velociryx]

*big sigh*

Okay, I admit it.

I've been lying the whole time.

I really AM a Doomer, and as a gesture of good faith, I've put together a new chart...one that will hopefully be closer to your deeply held beliefs and convictions, and therefore not as troublesome as the ones you've selected to post for yourself.

It's backed up by ROCK SOLID science...I swear, and has been approved by the various prophets and seers of Doomerism, so it should be safe to use for whatever purpose you like.

Oily, Short...I'm sorry...I'm joining the dark side....*sniff, sob*

-=Vel=-

[AirlinePilot]

Touch a nerve there vel???

[copious.abundance]

Post of the year.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Velociryx', '*')big sigh* Okay, I admit it. I've been lying the whole time.
I really AM a Doomer, and as a gesture of good faith, I've put together a new chart...one that will hopefully be closer to your deeply held beliefs and convictions, and therefore not as troublesome as the ones you've selected to post for yourself.
It's backed up by ROCK SOLID science...I swear, and has been approved by the various prophets and seers of Doomerism, so it should be safe to use for whatever purpose you like.
Oily, Short...I'm sorry...I'm joining the dark side....*sniff, sob*
-=Vel=-

[Velociryx]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'T')ouch a nerve there vel???

[Ludi]

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[Velociryx]

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[Velociryx]

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[shortonsense]

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[Velociryx]

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[shortonsense]

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[AirlinePilot]

"Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) Thursday promised further cost cuts and job losses after it posted a 28.7% fall in adjusted profit for the fourth quarter, as lower oil and gas production and a big loss in refining offset higher crude oil prices.

Chief Executive Peter Voser said Shell's refining and marketing division is enduring the toughest times he has seen in his 25 years at the company."


http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-201 ... inesEurope

[copious.abundance]

>>> LINK <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]BP's Fourth Quarter 2009 Profits Up 70%
BP plc | Tuesday, February 02, 2010

BP reported a sharp year-on-year increase in fourth quarter profits as it announced that its oil and gas production increased by more than four percent in 2009 and the company continued its industry-leading 17-year run of increasing reserves.

The increase in production was well ahead of the company's expected long-term average growth rate of 1-2 percent and reflected the ramp-up and start-up of major new projects, including the first full year of production from the Thunder Horse field in the US Gulf of Mexico. BP's reserve replacement ratio for the year was 129 percent -- making 2009 the seventeenth consecutive year of reserve replacement of at least 100 percent.

[...]

[AirlinePilot]

Gee even Rigzone understands the impacts of the recent "credit crunch".

Thier words not mine....

"With demand for new builds stymied by the recent credit crunch and commodity price collapse, virtually no new rig orders have been placed since late 2008, the tail end of a peak period for newbuild orders.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp ... 487&hmpn=1