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THE Addicted to Oil Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 06 Jan 2010, 01:58:24

A global grid build-out is pretty much underway, folks. It's impressive. Its being built with current technology and technology still under development.

The Chinese grid build-out is the biggest and its a staggering, enormous effort. Compare it to the dam they just built. Just the wind component of the Chinese grid is mind munchingly huge. And the Chinese are absolutely exploiting everything they possibly can to create an efficient, highly flexible grid. It's a major story in its own right and its worth following.

The whole world will be inventing, developing and building this highly modern, more efficient energy grid. The whole world will be cooperating with the Chinese to do this. So its ultimately a peaceful objective that should be encouraged and supported.

We will be seeing a lot of innovations.
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 06 Jan 2010, 19:58:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')ude.

A 100 years ago we did not have superhighways cutting across rural/wilderness America. Today we have superhighways without electric or natural gas lines for folks to refuel at, folks who may have been stupid enough to buy into your cornucopian dreams.


?? Folks are stupid only if they require their superhighways to have natural gas or battery replacement stations....why the hell would anyone want those on a highway when we have those in our garages?

Geez....that redwood curtain must be pretty thick....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Today we have lots of people without plugs for their plug-in vehicles. Lots of folks live in apartment buildings.


Have you ever been to ANY hotel or apartment building in, say, Calgary or Edmonton? They have these things....called electrical outlets....where people plug their cars in every winter. They certainly don't turn those outlets off during the summers......please tell me that your total traveling knowledge doesn't consist solely of sleeping while someone else transported you from Pennsylvania to California while you ignored all the beautiful scenery in between?

A little perspective can go a long way Pstarr....I'd offer to stop by and help out but...well.....the saying "you are judged by the company you keep" springs to mind....
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby Revi » Wed 06 Jan 2010, 21:47:03

I think that it is all possible, but we lack the motivation to do it.

We can't get into any kind of meaningful percentage of alternatives because we are too complacent right now with a grid fed by coal.

We are too enamored of the apps in our phones to pay any attention to what is fueling our lifestyle.

Good luck getting everyone into electric cars. We have one, but we had to build it ourselves.

It would be nice to free America of it's addiciton, but I think it's more like hanging out with a junkie that is detoxing, but not by choice.

It isn't going to be fun for anyone.
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby TheDude » Wed 06 Jan 2010, 23:33:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'T')he Chinese grid build-out is the biggest and its a staggering, enormous effort. Compare it to the dam they just built.


Do you mean the Three Gorges? 22.5 Gw baseload, vs. ca. 20 Gw nameplate wind = ca. 6-7 Gw, depending on whatever the Chinese CF for all these turbines are. Is the green line visible on an updated version of this graph?

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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 06 Jan 2010, 23:48:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think that it is all possible, but we lack the motivation to do it.

We can't get into any kind of meaningful percentage of alternatives because we are too complacent right now with a grid fed by coal.


Isn't it reasonable to note that this happens because there is plenty of coal, and its cheap and easy to make electricity with it? I might have to agree with the use of the word "complacent" but only because...well....can you BLAME anyone for it? If its cheap and easy....alternatives are just something less easy and more expensive...and people won't do that until economics changes the equation.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')Good luck getting everyone into electric cars. We have one, but we had to build it ourselves.


Thats exactly what the motoring press said about hybrids, which were introduced into the US during a time of super low gas prices. One decade later.....they are just another motoring choice.
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 07 Jan 2010, 14:54:35

At least the government is working on the problem. Obama promised his programs would make the US free of its huge dependence on foreign oil. He even promised an "Apollo Project" to invent a new kind of energy. :mrgreen:

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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Thu 07 Jan 2010, 19:50:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'A')t least the government is working on the problem. Obama promised his programs would make the US free of its huge dependence on foreign oil. He even promised an "Apollo Project" to invent a new kind of energy. :mrgreen:


Jimmy promised all the same stuff didn't he? Heck, I'll bet someone could find Slick WIlly making the same promise during a State of the Union speech sometime....heck....the Republicans probably all claimed the same thing!! Its a conspiracy!! And in no case has it had anything to do with freeing America from its oil addiction. But crank up that crude price another $100/bbl and baby...it happens all by itself.
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby Revi » Fri 08 Jan 2010, 23:21:15

I agree completely, SOS.

If we had oil at $180 a barrel there would be a lot of conservation and carpooling going on.
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 09 Jan 2010, 00:27:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') agree completely, SOS.

If we had oil at $180 a barrel there would be a lot of conservation and carpooling going on.


When oil was $80 ( pre peak ) I was all for a floor of $100, for everyone. Any oil sold below that price should be taxed to get to that price. After watching the summer of 2008 and attendant irritation on my part at traveling, and corresponding demand destruction as everyone else became irritated as well, I now think that to really drive a wooden spike through the heart of demand for awhile, we should tax to $200/bbl. Nice round number. And then every dime collected from that tariff/taxation scheme should be offered up as subsidies for wind electrical generation, nukes, Volt subsidies, a smart grid, fuel cell research and the electrification of transport in general, and anything else we can pile on.
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby mike3 » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 16:22:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') wont go into it again. This is pie in the sky. Not enough time, not enough alternative sources, not enough money. On top of those...Too much pain so none of it will be voluntary.
We have undergone little replacement to date. yes there is some, but scope and scale is going to kill us. This author has no clue of either.
Not enough sources to maintain our present way of life, but I didn't think that was supposed to be the idea.
If we demanded much less energy, supplying it with renewables would be vastly easier and more feasible.

I find it interesting, nobody ever wants to take a "painful" path voluntarily, yet they voluntarily choose to not take it, and the not taking it path is even MORE painful. But I suppose it's how it's seen: they don't see that choosing not to do it is ultimately more painful, or care only about the immediate, and not the more distant future.
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby mike3 » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 16:24:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') agree completely, SOS. If we had oil at $180 a barrel there would be a lot of conservation and carpooling going on.
Yeah, when it was at $147 things were starting to happen, but then it DROPPED... and guess what? People started reverting, and now the price is going up again. I wonder what will happen if/when the economy "recovers" into full tilt again and everyone goes to business as usual again and WHAM! The price surges back up to those levels or even higher, and they're "knocked down" again. The "devil's seesaw", it'd seem.
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby mike3 » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 16:27:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') agree completely, SOS.

If we had oil at $180 a barrel there would be a lot of conservation and carpooling going on.


When oil was $80 ( pre peak ) I was all for a floor of $100, for everyone. Any oil sold below that price should be taxed to get to that price. After watching the summer of 2008 and attendant irritation on my part at traveling, and corresponding demand destruction as everyone else became irritated as well, I now think that to really drive a wooden spike through the heart of demand for awhile, we should tax to $200/bbl. Nice round number. And then every dime collected from that tariff/taxation scheme should be offered up as subsidies for wind electrical generation, nukes, Volt subsidies, a smart grid, fuel cell research and the electrification of transport in general, and anything else we can pile on.


Yes, keep it high. It seemed like that when at $147 things were starting to happen. Then it dropped and everyone went back to the usual... If only it stayed there... Heck you don't even need to raise oil price directly. Just tax the crap out of gas for personal autos, and the bigger the auto the heavier the tax. When it costs some guy over half their salary to fill their giant Hummer, things are going to happen.
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 30 Jan 2010, 17:49:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mike3', '
')I find it interesting, nobody ever wants to take a "painful" path voluntarily, yet they voluntarily choose to not take it,
and the not taking it path is even MORE painful. But I suppose it's how it's seen: they don't see that choosing not to
do it is ultimately more painful, or care only about the immediate, and not the more distant future.



Can you describe the path you've taken voluntarily, which alternative energies you're using if any, and approximately how much energy you're using (in kwh per month or whatever) now compared to what you used before your voluntary changes? Or link to a post where you've already described this.

Thanks! :)
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby Phildo » Sun 31 Jan 2010, 16:16:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')
Is the electrification of transport really that much of a theoretical technology of tomorrow? Seems like its perfectly reasonable, 100+ year old technology which we are just now getting back around to seeing the advantage of.


Yes.

Large-scale Electric Ground Transportation is Very do-able with the existing technology and materials of today.
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 31 Jan 2010, 16:38:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phildo', 'Y')es. Large-scale Electric Ground Transportation is Very do-able with the existing technology and materials of today.
As a new poster in these parts, I should offer the following words of warning.....agreeing with me, under any circumstances, no matter how reasonable or obvious the statement I make, and no matter your qualifications on the topic at hand ( which appear substantial, which nearly guarantee's a more strident reaction ) will get you called names, labelled a "cornutroll ( whatever THAT is ) and subject you to various degree's of scorn and derision ( from some, not all I will admit ), all on just general principles.

The best way to solve this problem, from a new posters perspective is, right after agreeing with anything I say, chime in with, "So take that you cornutroll!" and it might just be enough to delay the "jump to conclusions" Pavlovian reaction among true believers long enough for you to develop a more complete picture of your positions and ideas. Just a thought. I certainly won't take it personally, when in Rome, etc etc.
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby Phildo » Sun 31 Jan 2010, 17:21:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'A')s a new poster in these parts, I should offer the following words of warning.....agreeing with me, under any circumstances, no matter how reasonable or obvious the statement I make, and no matter your qualifications on the topic at hand ( which appear substantial, which nearly guarantee's a more strident reaction ) will get you called names, labelled a "cornutroll ( whatever THAT is ) and subject you to various degree's of scorn and derision ( from some, not all I will admit ), all on just general principles.
The best way to solve this problem, from a new posters perspective is, right after agreeing with anything I say, chime in with, "So take that you cornutroll!" and it might just be enough to delay the "jump to conclusions" Pavlovian reaction among true believers long enough for you to develop a more complete picture of your positions and ideas. Just a thought. I certainly won't take it personally, when in Rome, etc etc.
:-D :-D :-D

Understand completely! And thanks for the Head's Up,

"So take that you cornutroll!"

Some of the Doom-Forever Folks take their religion pretty seriously.

"So take that you cornutroll!"

Recently departed LATOC -- if you are familiar -- after they started a psychotic witch-hunt after they decided they had "Infiltrator Trolls" among the flock. Turned out all internal paranoid crazies seeing ghosts among themselves. But I had enough of their lunacy.

"So take that you cornutroll!"

Peak-Oil.com did not seem to be so afflicted with the condition, but I do understand and appreciate the caution.

"So take that you cornutroll!" :-D
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby shortonsense » Sun 31 Jan 2010, 17:35:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phildo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'T')he best way to solve this problem, from a new posters perspective is, right after agreeing with anything I say, chime in with, "So take that you cornutroll!" and it might just be enough to delay the "jump to conclusions" Pavlovian reaction among true believers long enough for you to develop a more complete picture of your positions and ideas. Just a thought. I certainly won't take it personally, when in Rome, etc etc.
:-D :-D :-D
Understand completely! And thanks for the Head's Up, "So take that you cornutroll!"

<spinning away clutching at the shot to the heart>.....I'm hit! :lol:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phildo', 'S')ome of the Doom-Forever Folks take their religion pretty seriously. "So take that you cornutroll!"

They do....they do. This place appears to have less the pure groupthink, cult of personality going on that at least one of the other sites does, so its not all bad. There are quite a few moderates and some outright optimists, and those who disagree seem to get a fair shake in terms of finding their voice, with occasional exceptions, but all around, not all bad.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phildo', '
')Recently departed LATOC -- if you are familiar -- after they started a psychotic witch-hunt after they decided they had "Infiltrator Trolls" among the flock. Turned out all internal paranoid crazies seeing ghosts among themselves. But I had enough of their lunacy.


I did notice a Phildo being lamented on a recent cruise through their witchhunt thread....but that has been a train wreck for years. I remember once Matt came over here and threatened me because I noticed his dustup with one of his freeze dried food suppliers, he gave me his California BAR number and everything to show how serious lawyers who specialize in freeze dried food sales can be when they are really peeved! I noticed that the first voice who mentioned the witchhunt idea to Matt personally was summarily eliminated on the spot.....amusing of course, but also a giveaway for the intellectual depth permitted in that environment.
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby Phildo » Mon 01 Feb 2010, 02:21:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'T')hey do....they do. This place appears to have less the pure groupthink, cult of personality going on that at least one of the other sites does, so its not all bad. There are quite a few moderates and some outright optimists, and those who disagree seem to get a fair shake in terms of finding their voice, with occasional exceptions, but all around, not all bad.
A good balance is a good thing. I have found I can learn Much More from a sincere critical review of designs and concepts from an "unfriendly" or even just differing perspective and folks of backgrounds.

The tolerance and personal internal security to consider other or differing views is what seems to be lacking. Sort of a case if you do not believe as I do, you MUST be attacking me, or saying that I am somehow personally defective.

My view is pretty much the opposite of that. I try to welcome correction. My joke version of design review boards is that "If we both agree on everything -- one of us is surplus."

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') did notice a Phildo being lamented on a recent cruise through their witchhunt thread....but that has been a train wreck for years. I remember once Matt came over here and threatened me because I noticed his dustup with one of his freeze dried food suppliers, he gave me his California BAR number and everything to show how serious lawyers who specialize in freeze dried food sales can be when they are really peeved! I noticed that the first voice who mentioned the witchhunt idea to Matt personally was summarily eliminated on the spot.....amusing of course, but also a giveaway for the intellectual depth permitted in that environment.

Well, that is some sad insight to the process. I guess I would like to thank you for adding that background for me.

I have offered on that site to do some gratis review and provide updates on their "front page," so as to bring them up towards institutional level quality of information, but there is not much interest in that.

They seem to have major holes in their premises, mutually exclusive conclusions, are several years out of date, links to things that do not exist in the references, along with sources that are just daffy

But there is not really any interest, as the locals seem to regard it as some sort of Holy Scripture. However, now with your added perspective of it being mostly marketing tools for turning a buck, that adds another dimension to the condition.

Rather sad, overall.
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby JustaGirl » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 04:22:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Phildo', 's')nip
Rather sad, overall.


I hope you don't mind me butting in..

My last straw with LATOC was when they managed to drive Jeromie away. He was actually quite the doomer in many of his posts, if you ask me, but because he thought that the US might get by without a major dieoff, well by gosh he must be a troll! He never even implied a BAU situation, that I saw. That made it clear to me if you don't believe in a.. we are all going to die very soon.. type situation, you will not be welcomed there. They honestly need to change the name, they definitely don't believe in any life after the oil crash. :cry:

Luckily he has found his way over here, though I don't see him post much. I wish he would offer more posts, especially on the financial side of things.
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Re: Freeing America from its addiction to oil

Unread postby Phildo » Wed 03 Feb 2010, 06:50:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', 'I') hope you don't mind me butting in..
My last straw with LATOC was when they managed to drive Jeromie away. He was actually quite the doomer in many of his posts, if you ask me, but because he thought that the US might get by without a major dieoff, well by gosh he must be a troll! --snip--
Luckily he has found his way over here, though I don't see him post much. I wish he would offer more posts, especially on the financial side of things.
Sure. I recall Jeromie. Very Competent on the Business Side things in the Energy Industry. He is over here? This must be like dying and going to heaven. :-D

Seems he was an energy industry comptroller of some sort?

Did you post under the Justagirl name there, if you do not mind me asking?
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