[Olaf]

Interesting web page that I came across. Someone has probably posted it before, but thought I would share.

http://www.shadowstats.com/

Olaf

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The first peak oil recession: Interview with Steven Kopits (link)

Kopits: The US has experienced six recessions since 1972. At least five of these were associated with oil prices. In every case, when oil consumption in the US reached 4% percent of GDP, the US went into recession. Right now, 4% of GDP is $80 oil. So that’s my current view: If the oil price exceeds $80, then expect the US to fall back into recession.

[TheDude]

Sounds about right. Here's a good source for annualized international data: ERS/USDA Data - International Macroeconomic Data Set. Monthly US data you can get from the BEA.

Were you around when Ken Deffeyes posted about this?

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'B')ut we have never seen inflation during an economic contraction.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')I am so tired of hearing that a housing boom in the "Inland Empire" or Cleveland, Ohio caused this world economic contraction. Germany and Japan went into recession before the US real estate crash or the financial meltdown.

Occam's razor suggest we look for the simplest explanation of this recession, $147 oil. The essential definition of economy tells us it is futile to do with more things that which can be done with fewer.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '
')(does it mean anything?)

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'M')os, how do you explain Germany and Japan's economic recessions? Do you believe that the US housing mortgage crisis is responsible for impending financial collapse of Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc? Have have read Hamilton, Rubin, Therramus., or Steven Kopits? Do you have data to refute them? By the way, cute picture. Very retro, Like your thinking

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'W')e've been down this road a dozen times. Do we have to do this again? All I'm saying is your marginalization of the credit crisis is laughable. Absolutely laughable. The damage the credit crisis--on its own--has done to the economy of the US and the globe is unprecedented and will linger on for many years.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '
')Can you explain how the US went from being a creditor nation to a debtor one?

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'W')e've been down this road a dozen times. Do we have to do this again? All I'm saying is your marginalization of the credit crisis is laughable. Absolutely laughable. The damage the credit crisis--on its own--has done to the economy of the US and the globe is unprecedented and will linger on for many years.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '
')

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')Imports don't tell the whole story. Price is more important, and we all know oil prices in the early 90s were at historic lows, imports or no imports.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Higher oil prices preceded the recession. Not an embargo, not a war in the mideast, etc. What preceded both this world-wide financial crisis and the mortgage crisis? ONE BIG F#CKING EVENT. you know but you refuse to here it.

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'W')hat preceded the recession was a huge wave of liar loans given to people who had NO HOPE of paying their mortgages after the ARMs reset.

[diemos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '
')
Do you have any explanation of why this was done?

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diemos', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '
')
Do you have any explanation of why this was done?