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THE Dubai Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby 2cher » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 11:50:30

How wants to take a bet, that the United States will bail Dubai out? It will probably be the last loan china ever gives us though
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby Kristjan » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 11:53:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', 'W')atch RBS. They're the ones at the end of the line.

What is there to watch? RBS has rebounded as far as I can tell.
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby Kristjan » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 11:55:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('2cher', 'H')ow wants to take a bet, that the United States will bail Dubai out? It will probably be the last loan china ever gives us though

Clearly you haven't been paying attention. The most likely candidate to bail them out is Abu Dhabi.
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby vtsnowedin » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 11:57:09

:lol: Why do people that are 'flying to quality' buy US "securities" today?
With the US deficit where it stands and growing by leaps and bounds and considering who holds the reigns of power in Washington where do they see any "Quality" in anything the US produces other than a boat load of corn or whisky.?
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby SeaGypsy » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 12:05:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristjan', 'S')orry, SeaGypsy, didn't see your post there. I was replying to anther post during the time you wrote yours so it kind of slipped past. Sorry.

Ummm? This is peakoil.com.
Yes, I'm aware of that. But the title of this topic is not peak oil. My understanding is that we are not bound to discussing peak oil only.

Do you believe in peak oil?
I would argue that it is not a matter of belief, but yes, I agree that we are past peak oil or very near the top, anyway. I'm not a 'contrarian'.
Do you believe Dubai has any kind of future post oil?
Not really. Sandcastles always turn back to what they were built from - sand.
Do you want to encourage delusional investment in what is the most ostentatious of all the oil economies?
Nope. And I wasn't. I was merely trying to tell people not to expect a crash on international markets. I know that people are prone to selling their shares whenever markets slip into negative territory. Most of the time, these blips are just white noise. As I said, crashes are rare.

Last I heard they have 16 golf courses kept alive by oil fueled desalination plants (along with all the humans) and don't grow any food at all. The place is a nightmare waiting to happen. Anyone investing in such a stupid economy in the face of peak oil is a fool or worse. The sooner such absolute idiotic economy is wiped out the better.
I agree.


Ok, we are on the same page then. What worries me about your original post is that it could be construed as a BAU angle on this topic; which I certainly do not agree with. Whether the current crash (we are still in the thick of one/ did you notice?) is a market screwup or a direct result of peak oil or a combination of both has been (and will remain for some time) a hot topic of debate on these forums and is right at the center of peakoil.com. So it is highly relevant.
"Most of the time" and "Crashes are rare" sound naive and BAU troll type lingo.
Either expound or do more reading.
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby crude_intentions » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 12:33:19

Dubai would probably be in the top 5 money-stupid nations of the decade list. The Palm Islands, the Burj Dubai super-skyscraper. Dubai wants to make itself into the new Babylon of the modern age. The Falcon City of Wonder project even includes plans to construct a new Hanging Garden. I think they will succeed in that goal as the story of Dubai will become a lesson in morality for decades if not centuries to come.
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby SeaGypsy » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 12:37:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crude_intentions', 'D')ubai would probably be in the top 5 money-stupid nations of the decade list. The Palm Islands, the Burj Dubai super-skyscraper. Dubai wants to make itself into the new Babylon of the modern age. The Falcon City of Wonder project even includes plans to construct a new Hanging Garden. I think they will succeed in that goal as the story of Dubai will become a lesson in morality for decades if not centuries to come.



Dead right.
Dubai is one place it would be amazing to come back to post collapse. The worlds greatest ghost town. If there is a society to laugh about the folly of the oil age Dubai will be the stock. Nothing much bigger than a desert cockroach will live there in 100 years.
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby Sixstrings » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 12:55:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristjan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('2cher', 'H')ow wants to take a bet, that the United States will bail Dubai out? It will probably be the last loan china ever gives us though

Clearly you haven't been paying attention. The most likely candidate to bail them out is Abu Dhabi.


I would guess they'll get a UAE or other Arab bailout, because if they don't it affects the reputation and credit worthiness of the whole region. The odd thing here though is if that's the case, then why wasn't a bailout worked out *before* the announcement of default. Perhaps that means no bailout, or a high reluctance to do so -- since they've gone and made this announcement, there is damage done now either way.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I read that because of how credit default swaps work the actual dollars involved here are 100 times the defaulted debt. Credit default swaps are like gambling, with inumerable trades running in both directions (bets placed on default, and bets placed on them being good for the money).
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby eXpat » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 13:26:06

Dubai Woes May Reach ‘Sovereign Default,’ BofA Says
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b] Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Dubai’s debt woes may worsen to become a “major sovereign default” that roils developing nations and cuts off capital flows to emerging markets, Bank of America Corp. said.

“One cannot rule out -- as a tail risk -- a case where this would escalate into a major sovereign default problem, which would then resonate across global emerging markets in the same way that Argentina did in the early 2000s or Russia in the late 1990s,” Bank of America strategists Benoit Anne and Daniel Tenengauzer wrote in a report.

A default would lead to a “sudden stop of capital flows into emerging markets” and be a “major step back” in the recovery from the global financial crisis, they wrote.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSDypi9pbVkw&pos=2
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby IslandCrow » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 13:31:34

From the slide show on http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8382103.stm (caption to 3rd image)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he global downturn left many financial workers unemployed. The population fell an estimated 17%, meaning there was little demand for new properties.


While I am sure that in the current situation that sort of fall will play havoc with the economy, I would have thought that a 17% fall in population, without any associated die-off, would help mitigate some of the effects of a collapse at least in the PO sense...fewer mouths to feed, less housing to cool etc.
We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby eXpat » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 13:42:22

Those would have been all the expats running away...
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby Kristjan » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 13:57:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'O')k, we are on the same page then. What worries me about your original post is that it could be construed as a BAU angle on this topic; which I certainly do not agree with. Whether the current crash (we are still in the thick of one/ did you notice?) is a market screwup or a direct result of peak oil or a combination of both has been (and will remain for some time) a hot topic of debate on these forums and is right at the center of peakoil.com. So it is highly relevant.
"Most of the time" and "Crashes are rare" sound naive and BAU troll type lingo.
Either expound or do more reading.

The current financial crisis is the result of massive screwups on the part of the Congress, NAASD, DTCC, FED, SEC, banks, rating agencies...the list goes on and on.

However, you are correct to point out that peak oil is an important component of the current crisis. It's role in the financial crisis is irrelevant, but its role in the economic crisis is substantial. Rising oil prices won't cause the markets to crash, but they have a huge effect on the real economy. It is very worrying that it took an international economic crisis for oil demand to fall. Oil demand is on the rise again and most of it is coming from non-OECD countries (I'm sure you know that, I'm just making my case here). Unlike the EU or other rich countries/regions, they don't tax oil or if they do, they have very low taxes. Some countries even subsidize oil use. So even if we don't have an economic rebound, oil demand is going to rise. Cap ex spending is way down and we are heading into peak oil unprepared.

As far as market crashes are concerned, I don't think I need to read more. When I said market crashes are rare I meant that market don't follow each other like drops of rain falling from the sky. Yes, they happen more often than we would like, but they are still rare. Recent crashes include the crashes of 1930, 1987, 2000 and 2008 (as far as US markets are concerned). It is noticeable that they have become more frequent in the recent decades but there is no reason to scream 'crash' every time the market goes down a couple of percentage points. I am not delusional in that I don't think the crisis is over. Unemployment is still rising, GDP is down (in my home country Q3 GDP was -15%), home prices and home sales are falling like stones from the sky. Most worryingly, the total sum of derivatives is still rising. It is no over 10 times the GDP of the whole planet. The sum of all derivatives that are owned by US banks is in the neighborhood of $200 trillion, which is over 14 times US GDP (that is if the numbers reported to the CoC are correct).

Given the underlying economic data and the fact that we have a sea of toxic mortgages (which are marked to fantasy, not to market) and unpredictable derivatives floating around I am sure that we will have another very painful crash. But it won't come from Dubai. Dubai might get the blame, but Dubai is not the problem. The best gages for a crash are LIBOR rates, TED spread and the EURUSD exchange rate. I'm not going to get into specifics as to why that is so, but the reason is that all of the problems are tied to assets denominated in US dollars. If and when dollar assets fall in value, banks have to come up with additional collateral, which will (again) push the US dollar up and stocks down.
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby thor » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 14:13:40

From now on Dubai will be spelled as Dubye. Says it all, doesn't it?
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby Sixstrings » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 17:38:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crude_intentions', 'D')ubai would probably be in the top 5 money-stupid nations of the decade list. The Palm Islands, the Burj Dubai super-skyscraper. Dubai wants to make itself into the new Babylon of the modern age. The Falcon City of Wonder project even includes plans to construct a new Hanging Garden. I think they will succeed in that goal as the story of Dubai will become a lesson in morality for decades if not centuries to come.

Image
From the "hanging gardens" you'll be able to see the Great Pyramid, the Leaning Tower of Pisa, the Taj Mahal, and the Eiffel Tower.

I wonder if AIG and the US taxpayer is insuring all this?
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby Kristjan » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 18:06:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'I') wonder if AIG and the US taxpayer is insuring all this?

I all likelyhood, yes.
This weekend is going to be a tough one for the people who insured Dubai debt. They are going to have to cough up the collateral since Dubai's CDSs shot up quite a bit. The CDS issue is the biggest threat from Dubai.
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby Kristjan » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 18:18:31

No wonder they're knee deep in debt. Look at this!


Image

And don't forget the islands.

Image.
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby Tyler_JC » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 18:27:51

I don't understand who would want to live in that kind of development.

It looks cheesy and pathetic.

People are paying MILLIONS OF DOLLARS to live in that monstrosity?

They don't need a bailout, they need a therapist.
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby crude_intentions » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 18:31:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristjan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'I') wonder if AIG and the US taxpayer is insuring all this?

I all likelyhood, yes.
This weekend is going to be a tough one for the people who insured Dubai debt. They are going to have to cough up the collateral since Dubai's CDSs shot up quite a bit. The CDS issue is the biggest threat from Dubai.


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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby crude_intentions » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 18:43:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') don't understand who would want to live in that kind of development.

It looks cheesy and pathetic.

People are paying MILLIONS OF DOLLARS to live in that monstrosity?

They don't need a bailout, they need a therapist.



The place is so Gaudy they could repurpose it as a theme park for drag queens.

:lol:
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Re: Investor Shock Dubai Calls For Debt Standstill/Could Default

Postby kpeavey » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 20:35:57

Too much money chasing not enough sense.

I would suggest that the ruling family does not subscribe to the notion of Peak Oil. Dubai is a McMansion on a national scale. At least when the crash comes they will have some really nice ghetto housing-until it is reclaimed by the sea.
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