by Kristjan » Fri 27 Nov 2009, 13:57:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'O')k, we are on the same page then. What worries me about your original post is that it could be construed as a BAU angle on this topic; which I certainly do not agree with. Whether the current crash (we are still in the thick of one/ did you notice?) is a market screwup or a direct result of peak oil or a combination of both has been (and will remain for some time) a hot topic of debate on these forums and is right at the center of peakoil.com. So it is highly relevant.
"Most of the time" and "Crashes are rare" sound naive and BAU troll type lingo.
Either expound or do more reading.
The current financial crisis is the result of massive screwups on the part of the Congress, NAASD, DTCC, FED, SEC, banks, rating agencies...the list goes on and on.
However, you are correct to point out that peak oil is an important component of the current crisis. It's role in the financial crisis is irrelevant, but its role in the economic crisis is substantial. Rising oil prices won't cause the markets to crash, but they have a huge effect on the real economy. It is very worrying that it took an international economic crisis for oil demand to fall. Oil demand is on the rise again and most of it is coming from non-OECD countries (I'm sure you know that, I'm just making my case here). Unlike the EU or other rich countries/regions, they don't tax oil or if they do, they have very low taxes. Some countries even subsidize oil use. So even if we don't have an economic rebound, oil demand is going to rise. Cap ex spending is way down and we are heading into peak oil unprepared.
As far as market crashes are concerned, I don't think I need to read more. When I said market crashes are rare I meant that market don't follow each other like drops of rain falling from the sky. Yes, they happen more often than we would like, but they are still rare. Recent crashes include the crashes of 1930, 1987, 2000 and 2008 (as far as US markets are concerned). It is noticeable that they have become more frequent in the recent decades but there is no reason to scream 'crash' every time the market goes down a couple of percentage points. I am not delusional in that I don't think the crisis is over. Unemployment is still rising, GDP is down (in my home country Q3 GDP was -15%), home prices and home sales are falling like stones from the sky. Most worryingly, the total sum of derivatives is still rising. It is no over 10 times the GDP of the whole planet. The sum of all derivatives that are owned by US banks is in the neighborhood of $200 trillion, which is over 14 times US GDP (that is if the numbers reported to the CoC are correct).
Given the underlying economic data and the fact that we have a sea of toxic mortgages (which are marked to fantasy, not to market) and unpredictable derivatives floating around I am sure that we will have another very painful crash. But it won't come from Dubai. Dubai might get the blame, but Dubai is not the problem. The best gages for a crash are LIBOR rates, TED spread and the EURUSD exchange rate. I'm not going to get into specifics as to why that is so, but the reason is that all of the problems are tied to assets denominated in US dollars. If and when dollar assets fall in value, banks have to come up with additional collateral, which will (again) push the US dollar up and stocks down.