[kpeavey]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'N')ext domino could well be the already damaged UK economy

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'I')n Dubai if one does not pay their debt they go to jail, I wonder if the king will arrest himself and send himself to jail.

NOT..

[kpeavey]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', 'I') think Dubai calling for a debt standstill the day before a closed US market due to a holiday is "planned" in much the same way the FDIC closes banks unannounced on Friday afternoons.

I think it's what any responsible entity would do although labeling a blank entity as "they" is simple to do, "they" would be Dubai. Knowing what the statement would do to the US markets and seeing what this did to other smaller markets makes it rather simple to see that the "plan" was to make the announcement with minimal ripple effects across the entire world economy. Sure the US markets will take a kick to the groin on Friday (I'm not even sure if the US market is open on Friday) but the weekend will hopefully cushion the kick to the groin enough to avoid a complete meltdown.

[Dreamtwister]

Any thoughts on what this will do to near term (1-5 year) oil projects?

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'I') don't know what to make of anything anymore. It seems like when TSHTF elsewhere in the world, it's good news for us in that everybody and their uncle wants to buy our treasuries. And so, if ultimate "Doom" in America means that we can't finance our debts, oddly enough the more doom that happens in the world the more money we get to finance our debts!

I wonder if bad news for the US would actually come in the form of good news around the world (followed by their cessation of flight to safety with our treasuries).

[Kristjan]

This should answer most of your questions about Dubai: Q&A at the Telegraph.

As far as contagion is concerned, the Dubai story is a non-event. Dubai has issued $80 B worth of bonds, but the risk for Western banks is said to be around £14-15 B. So far, Dubai has not defaulted on its debt, it has only halted the repayment for 6 months. Given the size of the financial markets, which is measured in trillions, not billions, and the fact that most financial markets are not so closely tied to Dubai, the effects should wear out in short time. The equity markets have been having a sizable rally and if we go down from here, it is because equities are overpriced relative to the real economy and corporate profits. Dubai will only serve as a scapegoat for the crash, if we do get one.

Please bear in mind that market crashes are RARE EVENTS. If you don't believe me, then go and take a look at the charts yourself. Market crashes don't happen each year contrary to what Robert Prechter (who's been predicting a crash almost on a yearly basis) and a few others would have you believe. It is not wise to call for a crash each time stories like this float to the surface.

[davep]

It'd odd. Abu Dhabi appears willing and able to help, so why cause panic?

Of course, it'll end up like the Flintstones unless Abu Dhabi do

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristjan', '.')..{edited by MD: very good stuff...thanks for your contribution!}...

[Kristjan]

Abu Dhabi and Dubai are two competing kingdoms (id est two competing families). Abu Dhabi will not bail them out for the sake of it, it will do so to their own advantage by getting a very low price or a few additional terms.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristjan', 'A')bu Dhabi and Dubai are two competing kingdoms (id est two competing families). Abu Dhabi will not bail them out for the sake of it, it will do so to their own advantage by getting a very low price or a few additional terms.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristjan', 'A')bu Dhabi and Dubai are two competing kingdoms (id est two competing families). Abu Dhabi will not bail them out for the sake of it, it will do so to their own advantage by getting a very low price or a few additional terms.

[Kristjan]

More specifics on contagion and a possible Abu Dhabi bailout.

[ColossalContrarian]

"everybody relax, it's no big deal"

The article above is hilarious considering the banks who are downplaying their exposure come out and say "it's no big deal" when HSBC, RBS, and Barclays already have tremendous problems of their own. I'm wondering what else people think these bozo's would say? They've been denying there's a problem from the very start, they've got no credibility anymore, at least in my book.

My next question is who will be next to pull this type of maneuver? The "creditor, please put my debt on hold for a few months" maneuver.

Yeah it's no big deal. I like the domino analogy, I don't think there will be any crash, it was well averted thanks to the announcement being a day before the US holiday.

This old news, all I see on the TV are all the great deals I've missed on big screen tv's. Shoulda got up sooner...

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristjan', 'T')his should answer most of your questions about Dubai: Q&A at the Telegraph.

As far as contagion is concerned, the Dubai story is a non-event. Dubai has issued $80 B worth of bonds, but the risk for Western banks is said to be around £14-15 B. So far, Dubai has not defaulted on its debt, it has only halted the repayment for 6 months. Given the size of the financial markets, which is measured in trillions, not billions, and the fact that most financial markets are not so closely tied to Dubai, the effects should wear out in short time. The equity markets have been having a sizable rally and if we go down from here, it is because equities are overpriced relative to the real economy and corporate profits. Dubai will only serve as a scapegoat for the crash, if we do get one.

Please bear in mind that market crashes are RARE EVENTS. If you don't believe me, then go and take a look at the charts yourself. Market crashes don't happen each year contrary to what Robert Prechter (who's been predicting a crash almost on a yearly basis) and a few others would have you believe. It is not wise to call for a crash each time stories like this float to the surface.

[Kristjan]

It's more like they waited for Eid al Adha (see wiki for more), not Thanksgiving. It's not always about America, you know.

Relevant Dubai Financial Market 2009 Holidays:
26/11/2009 - Arafat Day
27/11/2009 to 29/11/2009 - Eid Al Adha
02/12/2009 - UAE National Day

If the folks here are not yet fed up on the Dubai discussion, then I suggest to have a look at the Economist's comment section.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristjan', '.')..Economist's comment section.

[Kristjan]

Well it would be pointless to copy and paste everything that has already been said there so I thought I'd pass on the link. Feel free not to read it if you're not interested.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristjan', 'I')t's more like they waited for Eid al Adha (see wiki for more), not Thanksgiving. It's not always about America, you know.

Relevant Dubai Financial Market 2009 Holidays:
26/11/2009 - Arafat Day
27/11/2009 to 29/11/2009 - Eid Al Adha
02/12/2009 - UAE National Day

If the folks here are not yet fed up on the Dubai discussion, then I suggest to have a look at the Economist's comment section.

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristjan', 'W')ell it would be pointless to copy and paste everything that has already been said there so I thought I'd pass on the link. Feel free not to read it if you're not interested.

[Kristjan]

Sorry, SeaGypsy, didn't see your post there. I was replying to anther post during the time you wrote yours so it kind of slipped past. Sorry.

Ummm? This is peakoil.com.
Yes, I'm aware of that. But the title of this topic is not peak oil. My understanding is that we are not bound to discussing peak oil only.

Do you believe in peak oil?
I would argue that it is not a matter of belief, but yes, I agree that we are past peak oil or very near the top, anyway. I'm not a 'contrarian'.
Do you believe Dubai has any kind of future post oil?
Not really. Sandcastles always turn back to what they were built from - sand.
Do you want to encourage delusional investment in what is the most ostentatious of all the oil economies?
Nope. And I wasn't. I was merely trying to tell people not to expect a crash on international markets. I know that people are prone to selling their shares whenever markets slip into negative territory. Most of the time, these blips are just white noise. As I said, crashes are rare.

Last I heard they have 16 golf courses kept alive by oil fueled desalination plants (along with all the humans) and don't grow any food at all. The place is a nightmare waiting to happen. Anyone investing in such a stupid economy in the face of peak oil is a fool or worse. The sooner such absolute idiotic economy is wiped out the better.
I agree.