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What is a Peak Oil Moderate?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?

Unread postby Arthur75 » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 16:26:40

Nice synthesis, agree on most if not all of the points, so qualify as a moderate in that sense.


(Except when I see a fast crash coming ! :wink:
That could be the result if many systems crash, due for instance to a serious resource war that would mess up the resource base even more.)
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Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?

Unread postby davep » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 16:38:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr. Ofellati', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')
I'm sorry, but what's Poly U? Are you talking about some kind of light tunnel from the roof? Or a passive thermal collector?

And who wants to live in a house with no windows?!


Jeez dude, polyurethane. It's a standard foam insulation.


That woudln't work in a hybrid passive solar-straw bale house as (a) it is a water vapour barrier (and would help destroy your walls), with properly designed straw bale the water vapour can traverse the walls, avoiding any humidity problems. It's a really important point. And (b) if you install this insulation on the inside of your walls, you are losing any thermal mass that the walls may contain (for decent design, the insulation should always be outside the thermal mass, to stop the house losing too much heat in winter as soon as the heating is off, and vice versa in summer).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m not saying no windows.

What I'm saying is this . . . passive solar is usually a euphemism for "lots and lots of windows." Rather than have a "passive solar" system, it's much simpler, cheaper, and easier to just have a lot fewer windows.


As I said earlier, you're wrong. It's merely a question of south-facing windows. And you can have a wall for thermal storage between the rooms and the windows.

It may well be cheaper to have a lot fewer windows, but your house won't heat itself in winter. And as heating costs increase, this would be a severe false economy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') 2x4x8' wall, 20 feet long with a staggered stud design and two inches of polyurethane and a 3x4 or 3x5 window is cheap and easy to build and can be heated with a candle.


And how do you ventilate that? And when you do, even with a heat exchanger, you're using far more energy than the candle to maintain your temperature and breathable air. With my design, you're looking at non-mechanical ventilation and thermal mass storage within the insulation. Cunning , n'est-ce pas? Oh, and I defy you to find a cheaper building material than straw bale, clay and lime.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ake that same wall and put in 100 square feet of southern facing windows and you jack the price by a huge amount and generate huge heat loss through the glass.


As well as what I've already said, I'm in touch with the German architects who have won the worldwide passive solar design house two years running. I don't like their high-tech expensive solutions, but they use glass throughout, and the house is actually energy positive. If you select the right glass and get it installed correctly, weithout thermal bridges, you're fine. And, as I said, if you're in a very cold area, this could be as buffer zone between the house and outside.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut you've made my point. By saying, "who wants to live in a house with no windows," what you're really doing is acknowledging that passive solar is really a way to continue to have cheap-oil sized windows on houses as oil gets more expensive. Won't work.


What an ignorant remark. Frankly, it has no merit.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f it will work, show me the house in Vermont.


I can show you the house in Darmstadt, Germany, which regularly gets very cold in winter, and still maintains a net positive energy balance, despite being all glass (which is not a design I would advocate).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he future of homes is not passive solar. The future of homes is smaller homes with fewer windows.


The future of homes is indeed smaller. But you need to understand a lot more before you can make such sweeping statements.
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Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?

Unread postby blukatzen » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 18:28:22

I guess I count myself in with the moderates. I do see rioting, etc, happening, but that is the outcome of the economy, not just "peakoil" and it's relativity to such. (It's not going to happen overnight, like aforementioned.)

I would say the only wild card in this whole scenario is the weather. Highly unpredictable. We didn't have the greatest growing season here in the mid-upper Midwest this year. Lots of rain, but lots of coolness as well. I'm trying to get our growers for our garden centers to grow more shorter-season tomatoes. I remember my customers complaining in early August that they were a month behind where their tomatoes should have been. And it started in with an early Autumn this year, hardly any Indian Summer.

That would be a problem for the food supply, but then we'd have to switch to short-season, or more cool-tolerant crops, which is where I think we're headed, here in the Chicagoland region.

As to Ludi's comments about having an Urban and Rural homestead situation, there's LOTS of folks here in the Chicagoland area that have a "summer cottage" or "summer home" in the surrounding areas, in Michigan, in Indiana, in Wisconsin. Some of those folks came from there, and inherited land, so they're in luck. And they KNOW it as well! FYI.

Hope everyone's harvest went well!

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Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 19:46:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('blukatzen', '
')As to Ludi's comments about having an Urban and Rural homestead situation, there's LOTS of folks here in the Chicagoland area that have a "summer cottage" or "summer home" in the surrounding areas,



It must be nice to be rich or to have inherited property! But most folks probably aren't in that situation. Most folks who own homes can barely afford just one of them. :|
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Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?

Unread postby blukatzen » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 20:00:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('blukatzen', '
')As to Ludi's comments about having an Urban and Rural homestead situation, there's LOTS of folks here in the Chicagoland area that have a "summer cottage" or "summer home" in the surrounding areas,



It must be nice to be rich or to have inherited property! But most folks probably aren't in that situation. Most folks who own homes can barely afford just one of them. :|


Hi Ludi!
I'd say we have the gamut from the richy-rich types that have inherited *some* property and have built a lot of home on that said property, to those (more are in this camp) whose grandparents farmed a bit out in Michigan, near the fruit belt, (Paw-Paw, Kalamazoo) and have a small home that's from the 30's, (say for instance) or even further back. Some have true cabins, (those that like to hunt, say, and go up to the "U-P" or Upper Peninsula Michigan, or Northern Wisconsin.) Those are the folks that like their fishing, hunting, snowmobiling in the Winter, etc.) It runs the gamut between those 2.
The land prices weren't all that much in those 2 States, and maybe even less in Indiana, for the longest time. If you had a fairly decent income, and I am talking about those even in the Trades, Plumbers, Electricians, etc. they'd take off for a week and go up fishing in the Summer, hunting in the Autumn.

A lot of my customers have brought me back some venison jerky, or what have you. For those without a "second home", there's always those who've had a boat on Lake Michigan, or some of our other Lakes (Ring of Lakes area near the border of Illinois-Wisconsin near the glacial moraine area.)
My college roommate's parents owned land and an old house near Twin Lakes, Wisconsin we went to often, as they enjoyed both boating in Summertime, and skiing near the Glacial Moraine area that had some skiing. (but not like Colorado!) It was a very nice weekend getaway place that was owned by her grandmother, who once owned a chain of small grocery stores, and was "split" for useage amongst her 2 children's families. It certainly wasn't considered "rich" by anyone's standards!
There's also those that own homes along Jo Daveis Co. near the Mississippi, my ex's parents had owned property there they never developed, but took their camper to quite a bit.

None of those folks are "rich" or ever would be rich, but there's a fair amount of folks that have opted to buy a second property "outside" of where they make their home, here in the City, or in the surrounding Suburbs of Chicago.

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Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 20:13:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('blukatzen', '
')None of those folks are "rich" or ever would be rich, but there's a fair amount of folks that have opted to buy a second property "outside" of where they make their home, here in the City, or in the surrounding Suburbs of Chicago.




To me that looks "rich," but I'm lower middle class myself. People who have so much spare money they can "opt to buy a second property" look rich to me. :)
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Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?

Unread postby sparky » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 21:35:05

.

[ think anyone who is 100% certain of the way this will unfold is a fool. I think it's possible to be a peak oil moderate
but not completely close off the possibility of both fast-crash scenarios and something resembling technofix steady-state.]

that's the mainline bet , some care should be taken that the adjustment might have discontinuities
( IE sh.t hit the fan ) such as geopolitical aggro , disastrous global harvest or plain bad luck

I see the curve as a downward staircase , period of relative quiet , or even rising standard punctuated by steep crisis

It would be uneven across the globe , some societies could even come out OK ,
but for the rest , populist politics will toss every societies about , keeping the peace will be the key ,
if the suburbs riot seriously , then things become sticky !


.
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Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?

Unread postby coyote » Fri 13 Nov 2009, 03:34:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')o me that looks "rich," but I'm lower middle class myself. People who have so much spare money they can "opt to buy a second property" look rich to me. :)

+1 - still scratching after my first, over here.

I'm pretty much a peak oil moderate now, looking at the list. But I'm an eco-crash armageddon hardcore doomer run away bad bad bad... :? [smilie=5hot.gif]
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Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?

Unread postby thuja » Fri 13 Nov 2009, 12:17:37

By the way- a moderate can live in the country, the city or even the suburbs. There is no stupid rule about having to live rurally to survive and thrive.
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Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 13 Nov 2009, 14:03:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'a') big steamy hearty plate of of either chipped beef and turkey tetrazinni for dinner.



Looks pretty deluxe to me! Meat every day - wow! 8O
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Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 13 Nov 2009, 15:09:54

Yeah, you'll definitely get the hotties in the future if you promise them meat every day. But really it depends on the quality of the meat, not necessarily the quantity. :wink:
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Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?

Unread postby Dr. Ofellati » Fri 13 Nov 2009, 17:10:24

I had woodchuck the other day for the first time.

The indefatigable hang-ups of my suburban past made it quite a challenge.
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Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?

Unread postby Dr. Ofellati » Fri 13 Nov 2009, 18:55:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr. Ofellati', 'I') had woodchuck the other day for the first time.

The indefatigable hang-ups of my suburban past made it quite a challenge.
Did you kill, clean, and cook it? How?

A friends dog once whooped a woodchuck. The grossest thing were the engorged ticks all over its body. We didn't eat it.


Ticks?!

Oh gaaaawd. I thought they were raisins.


Seriously though, I did not cook it. I found a soul brother late in life a few months ago. He's doomsteading for a different reason. He shot it and cleaned it. Could have been loaded to the whiskers with every parasite known to humans. Probabably was.

I arrived for the feast on the beast. The tough part for me was the presentation - it was served on the bone, in large fragments, in a 11x15 clear glass casserole dish filled about 80% with liquid. The net effect was of a chopped up sea monster, curving in and out of the fluid, backbone and other bones visible.

I ate my share. It was good, not great. Took all I had to eat it. If I was hungry, and it was presented meat-only, I would really like it.
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Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?

Unread postby Revi » Fri 13 Nov 2009, 23:19:19

When I lived in Guatemala I used to eat squirrel on a stick. It was roasted over a fire, and it was acturally quite tasty.

I ate all sorts of things down there including mico, tepesquintle and baby wasps from the comb.

It was quite an education.
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