For those of you who want to know here is my personal list...
1- We believe that the peaking of global oil production is happening now.
2- We believe that global oil depletion in production will have increasingly dire effects on the world economy. We see a likelihood of persistent cascading recessions and oil price lability with lots of spikes and crashes.
3- We believe that human population will likely decrease over the next 100-200 years to perhaps only 1-3 billion people. This will happen through a process of die-offs in some countries due to resource wars/famines/etc., and "die-backs" in other countries due to reduced fertility and reduced average lifespan.
4- We believe that the average lifespan and standard of living that we have become accustomed to will decrease and that poverty will dramatically increase throughout the world due to oil and resource constraints.
5- We believe that mitigation in the form of alternative energy, nuke power, conservation and efficiency as well as new technologies...will only have a small effect in reducing the impact of oil production depletion. They are likely to make more of a difference in wealthier countries than in poorer countries.
6- Even though mitigation may not have as great of an impact as we hope, we believe that personal, local, national and global efforts for dealing with this crisis are essential.
7- We support efforts to become more self and community-reliant and reduce excessive energy consumption via growing food locally, biking, passive solar design, wind and solar power, rainwater catchment, etc etc you get the picture.
What we don't believe:
We don't believe in a fast crash die-off Olduvai cliff scenario. We don't believe that 70-90% of the world's population will suddenly die in the next 10-20 years.
We don't believe that Peak Oil will lead to a complete and sudden collapse of the world's agricultural and transportation systems, leading to wide scale starvation.
We don't believe that the only people to stand a chance in this fast crash are those who live in rural enclaves, preferably in a "doomstead" with plenty of land. We think its way way more complicated than that.
We believe that arming oneself to the teeth in preparation for some mythic attack by the zombies (aka Timmy your hungry twelve year old neighbor) is ridiculous.
I know there are a lot of folks here who fall into the fast crash camp- and they are quite vocal. But I think there are plenty of us moderates- and they don't talk as much. Let's hear from you...
PeakOil is You
What is a Peak Oil Moderate?
Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?
by ian807 » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 14:10:52
I must be a moderate then.
That said, I expect bumps due to politics and money. One example. When oil starts getting scarce, some countries are going to decide that it's smarter for them to hoard their oil to supply domestic consumption and/or wait for the price to go even higher before selling. I can see a scenario where Iran, Venezuela and Russia all do this in a 2 month period. Oil prices could skyrocket suddenly, to the point where food and goods transportation might be suddenly and severely curtailed.
That said, I expect bumps due to politics and money. One example. When oil starts getting scarce, some countries are going to decide that it's smarter for them to hoard their oil to supply domestic consumption and/or wait for the price to go even higher before selling. I can see a scenario where Iran, Venezuela and Russia all do this in a 2 month period. Oil prices could skyrocket suddenly, to the point where food and goods transportation might be suddenly and severely curtailed.
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ian807 - Tar Sands
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Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?
by mos6507 » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 14:17:23
I think anyone who is 100% certain of the way this will unfold is a fool. I think it's possible to be a peak oil moderate but not completely close off the possibility of both fast-crash scenarios and something resembling technofix steady-state.
So if you leave open maybe a 10% chance of fast-crash and a 10% chance of technofix, then maybe you will want to hedge your bets rather than putting all your chips on a slow-crash power-of-community scenario.
So if you leave open maybe a 10% chance of fast-crash and a 10% chance of technofix, then maybe you will want to hedge your bets rather than putting all your chips on a slow-crash power-of-community scenario.
- mos6507
Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?
by thuja » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 14:19:56
Yes I would agree- as a moderate- I think there is a high likelihood for localized problems with agricultural transport, riots over the price of food, etc. What I don't see- is that there will be a sudden and irrevocable cessation of globalized agriculture and its transport with the sudden starvation of most of the population. That to me is ludicrous.
No Soup for You!!
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thuja - Intermediate Crude
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Re: What is a Peak Oil Moderate?
by Dr. Ofellati » Thu 12 Nov 2009, 14:21:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or those of you who want to know here is my personal list...
1-6
1-6
I agree with 1-6.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '7')- We support efforts to become more self and community-reliant and reduce excessive energy consumption via growing food locally, biking, passive solar design, wind and solar power, rainwater catchment, etc etc you get the picture.
Not so much on board with "biking" and "passive solar" and that sort of thing.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')We don't believe in a fast crash die-off Olduvai cliff scenario. We don't believe that 70-90% of the world's population will suddenly die in the next 10-20 years.
I believe it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e don't believe that Peak Oil will lead to a complete and sudden collapse of the world's agricultural and transportation systems, leading to wide scale starvation.
It's not the lack of oil that will cause the starvation - it'll be the societal chaos that ensues when it's finally understood that we're falling off the oil production cliff.
Think about it.
A child starves every 3 seconds on earth. Whoops, there goes one.
So, if that's the case when oil is still plentiful, transportation is great, and agricultural has never been better, what will happen when diesel is 20 bucks a gallon and there is fighting in the streets of every major city in the world?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e don't believe that the only people to stand a chance in this fast crash are those who live in rural enclaves, preferably in a "doomstead" with plenty of land. We think its way way more complicated than that.
This is too broad. Nobody believes this, so it doesn't help to distinguish you.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e believe that arming oneself to the teeth in preparation for some mythic attack by the zombies (aka Timmy your hungry twelve year old neighbor) is ridiculous.
This appears to be an anti-gun statement.
If you don't own a shot gun, a rifle, and a handgun, then it's just anti-gun rhetoric. If you do, then I'm not sure what your point is.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') know there are a lot of folks here who fall into the fast crash camp- and they are quite vocal. But I think there are plenty of us moderates- and they don't talk as much. Let's hear from you.
I'd like to hear from everybody - it's always interesting to hear the theories.
Maybe we can get Mos to come in and call you a denier for having a different opinion.
