[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'w')hatever

[AirlinePilot]

Lets try just a little harder to refrain from calling each other names. It does not further discussion, nor does it do anything for your argument to offer credibility or support.

We'd like a bit more maturity here folks, please act accordingly.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'L')ets try just a little harder to refrain from calling each other names. It does not further discussion, nor does it do anything for your argument to offer credibility or support.

[AirlinePilot]

Nice article by Matt:

Oil spin: Peak Oil is real

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')s it possible you actually read his book "Twilight in the Desert" like many participants to the forum, and actually understand his analysis regarding Saudi oil reservoir issues?

Or are you just repeating soundbites and unsubstantiated internet gossip?

[AirlinePilot]

SOS,

As long as there are fountains of cornucopia around like you Simmons point gets waved away and pushed down the road even farther and farther until it just doesn't matter anymore. Your attitude is part of the problem we wont see any transparency, or real effort into alternatives. Why? Who needs it if all is well and technology and reserve growth is going to save us! If that is the case as you so doggedly believe, than which one gets more play? The ugly reality of PO, or the one where everything is gonna be ok and transition will be some sort of techno alternative cornucopia? I fail to see why you even bother to hold up those words as some sort of agreement or hope. Your obvious denial of PO and how the ramifications of it plays out marks you as a sort of hypocrite really when you make a post like that.

I see those words of his as hollow. He is frustrated because as Hirsch sees there is no real momentum being applied to the transparency issue. There is no political or corporate will to move towards any of those alternatives because it means by definition we pull PO into the ugly light of day. Nobody wants that to happen on their watch. As Hirsch has said it's all just bad news and we cant have all bad news.

As long as that is the case those words are just fancy fluff for the masses, garbage in a book, I wouldn't hang my hat on them.

[hardtootell-2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I')s it possible you actually read his book "Twilight in the Desert" like many participants to the forum, and actually understand his analysis regarding Saudi oil reservoir issues?

Or are you just repeating soundbites and unsubstantiated internet gossip?

[TheAntiDoomer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')As long as that is the case those words are just fancy fluff for the masses, garbage in a book, I wouldn't hang my hat on them.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'S')OS,

As long as there are fountains of cornucopia around like you Simmons point gets waved away and pushed down the road even farther and farther until it just doesn't matter anymore.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')So you don't believe in peak oil? That's good short. You are a bright guy!

[mos6507]

Thought I'd bump this thread. Has Matt gotten much airtime on cable news lately? I'm wondering whether maybe he made one too many bad calls. Do you think he's done himself in as an a-lister?

[Maddog78]

I haven't seen him in the media lately.
He'll get back on the a-list when crude goes over $100 again.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'T')hought I'd bump this thread. Has Matt gotten much airtime on cable news lately? I'm wondering whether maybe he made one too many bad calls. Do you think he's done himself in as an a-lister?

[rangerone314]

Peak oil is misinterpreted as a tipping point.

It is not peak oil which should have been considered a tipping point, but a point beyond that, which causes the collapse.

Peak oil is just a mile marker. It marks the MOST oil being produced. Its the decline that will be the killer, but never underestimate inertia.

The common pattern mathematically that occurs right before many tipping points is serious instability. I'm not sure if the $147/bbl was a true indicator of instability. I think it will take 3-4 years to see if we are at a point of instability that is the precursor to the tipping point that collapses the world economy permanently. I caveat that 3-4 years as being 3-4 years AFTER the first year the economy picks up again and oil demand goes up.

[mos6507]

I don't think volatility by itself makes the case for peak oil. We've had non-peak-oil induced volatility in the past and it's too easy to find aboveground factors (speculation, geopolitics, lack of investment). What will make the case will be the sustained failure of supply to meet demand, resulting in sustained >$150 prices, with the resulting economic problems (damage to the airline industry, etc...) Anything less than that can be explained away with as a temporary anomaly.

So there is the point beyond which the converted are convinced we've peaked, which for many of us is already in the past, and there is the point where everyone else concedes we've peaked. I'm much more concerned with the latter because until that happens, we're not going to accomplish much in the way of mitigation.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'P')eak oil is misinterpreted as a tipping point.

[yesplease]

I wonder if we'll ever see $150/bbl sustained... There seems to be plenty of evidence that we may and that we may not.